Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[killer b]

A disturbingly high number of these people see political violence as not only justified - but necessary

tbf they aren't really wrong. They're just mostly wrong about what it's justified for, and where it's necessary.

 

[BCBlues]

It's a great song but one line has always stuck out for me..."I cant remember such a bitter time". I never thought we would see such divisions again after Thatcher was booted out but here we are again.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Just to clarify. In the unlikely event of a HoC VoNC followed by a Corbyn caretaker gov (the lib dems might come in if 2nd ref promised too?) Johnson remains Tory leader and remains the most likely post GE PM?

These things can turn very quickly. If his government were to fall to be replaced by some caretaker govt, Johnson would find it very hard to characterise himself as anything other than a failure - either to those who already think he is one or those who currently back him because he wants to 'get brexit done'. I can imagine the Brexit Party having a field day, then who knows what would happen at an election? Could see the tories virtually wiped out in parts of the country, but I don't think anyone has any real idea what would happen.

 

[Mr Moose]

Bit misleading that though, cos the economy and immigration were consistently and both have now been wrapped up in the brexit bow from both sides

Yes, but it’s not the case that Brexit offers anything or is the solution to anything. There is no simple demand like fuel prices to drag it forward. The excitement about it is an artifice requiring frequent piss boiling to stay in focus.

 

[kebabking]

I think after Jo Cox they might steer clear of that.

Who is 'they'?

Any brexit related fisticuffs isn't going to be orchestrated in some Russian money financed 'war room', it's going to be local fuckwits off the internet - the kind of idiots who post a stream of Britain First tripe - getting pissed and bashing constituency offices, Polish shops and MP's surgeries. It might, depending on circumstances there and then, go further than that or it may just stay as half-cut rantings and the odd brick thrown through a window.

What it won't be, in any real sense, is organised.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Actually I’m still having a good laugh about expenses and phone hacking leading to riots. Maybe Hugh Grant could kick them off for you.

Sigh.

The reason I mention those things is that trust in the establishment is the lowest that it has been in the post war period, because of a whole range of things. Brexit adds to that.

I'm not seeing we will see riots. But if Parliament or the courts effectively overrule a democratic process and revoke A50 at some point, I wouldn't rule it out. There is deep anger in society and it will find an expression one way or another regardless of whether you can comprehend that anger or not.

 

[Winot]

tbf they aren't really wrong. They're just mostly wrong about what it's justified for, and where it's necessary.

Do you really believe that? Can you give me an example of political violence in the UK that you would think justified?

 

[killer b]

Well, we all cheered when someone bricked Tommy Robinson when he came to town in the summer.

 

[Supine]

Well, we all cheered when someone bricked Tommy Robinson when he came to town in the summer.

I'm more of a milkshake kind of a guy

 

[Steel Icarus]

Poll tax riots. That was brilliant.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Yes, but it’s not the case that Brexit offers anything or is the solution to anything. There is no simple demand like fuel prices to drag it forward. The excitement about it is an artifice requiring frequent piss boiling to stay in focus.

I wasn't referring to a trigger for social disorder, I was responding to your post that nobody was arsed about the EU before 2016. It's misleading because the issues that are wrapped up in brexit are the same issues that were common concerns before. All three of tories, labour, and libdems called for referendums prior to Cameron actually doing it, that didn't come from nowhere, Ukip dominating EU elections didn't come from nowhere.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Anyway, something about riots being the language of the unheard or something

 

[Steel Icarus]

I wasn't referring to a trigger for social disorder, I was responding to your post that nobody was arsed about the EU before 2016. It's misleading because the issues that are wrapped up in brexit are the same issues that were common concerns before. All three of tories, labour, and libdems called for referendums prior to Cameron actually doing it, that didn't come from nowhere, Ukip dominating EU elections didn't come from nowhere.

I voted No2EU in 2014's Euro Parliament election, for example

 

[Mr Moose]

I wasn't referring to a trigger for social disorder, I was responding to your post that nobody was arsed about the EU before 2016. It's misleading because the issues that are wrapped up in brexit are the same issues that were common concerns before. All three of tories, labour, and libdems called for referendums prior to Cameron actually doing it, that didn't come from nowhere, Ukip dominating EU elections didn't come from nowhere.

I think you are doing that thing where people imagine Brexit is anything they want it to be. Any disatisfaction expressed during our membership is de facto an expression of disatisfaction with the EU whatever the gift of our Government was to address those issues. The EU and it’s neoliberal rules is a part for sure, but its position in pole place was a fringe activity until recently.

 

[Proper Tidy]

I voted No2EU in 2014's Euro Parliament election, for example

I campaigned and almost stood for them in 2009 haha

 

[Proper Tidy]

I think you are doing that thing where people imagine Brexit is anything they want it to be.

I'm really not. Was the economy a common concern pre 16 yes/no, is it a factor in brexit yes/no, was immigration a common concern pre 16 yes/no, is it a factor in brexit yes/no. Come on now.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Just to clarify. In the unlikely event of a HoC VoNC followed by a Corbyn caretaker gov (the lib dems might come in if 2nd ref promised too?) Johnson remains Tory leader and remains the most likely post GE PM?

In this scenario the sane thing for the tories to do would be to drop Johnson like a hot rock but then they'd run into the same problem that got Johnson the job in the first place, namely the dearth of better candidates for leadership. Considering it's now mandatory to chase the brexiteer lunatic fringe vote at the expense of all others a relatively sane moderate would be out of the question, so that drains a perilously shallow gene pool further still.

Again, Johnson remaining as leader after losing a VONC (as well as losing literally everything else) is both utterly absurd and, somehow, the least absurd scenario.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

My problem with the brexit riots thing is that it's obviously being pushed to tie into the fantasies of the loons and loon-adjacent - that loyal Englishmen are going to take up arms against the traitors, quislings and fifth columnists of the deep state Marxist conspiracy if the will of the people is thwarted. This is not something we want to encourage.

 

[Cid]

the volume and ceaseless nature of unending rage on breixt orientated social media is deeply worrying IMHO. Its all talk of "traitors" "string em up" "send in the army" - their is no debate beyond - "we won - we are leaving - end of". Absolute moral certainty.
A disturbingly high number of these people see political violence as not only justified - but necessary - and they are being explicitly encouraged by johnson and co. I don't think they have the organsiation or numbers to do really big numbers on demos - also i would guess these people are older and more isolated that the usual protesters. But i definitely think some of them will be spurred into violent action - alone or co-ordinated.

Yeah... brexit, especially no deal, seems to track more closely to age than anything else (e.g survey). I think that and a relatively high proportion of socially conservative types will limit wider direct action. And among those left leaning leavers a reluctance to associate with many of the other groups likely to be promoting protests.

 

[Mr Moose]

I'm really not. Was the economy a common concern pre 16 yes/no, is it a factor in brexit yes/no, was immigration a common concern pre 16 yes/no, is it a factor in brexit yes/no. Come on now.

Yes, but Brexit isn’t an answer to issues like the economy. It’s not a new economic model, its key deliverables as expressed by the Conservative and Brexit Parties are neoliberal trade arrangements. All you can really wrap up in it is the desire to be out of the EU and in itself that wasn’t a big deal until recently.

 

[DotCommunist]

I voted No2EU in 2014's Euro Parliament election, for example

as did I. Spacklefrog stood for them unless my memory betrays me

 

[Mr Moose]

My problem with the brexit riots thing is that it's obviously being pushed to tie into the fantasies of the loons and loon-adjacent - that loyal Englishmen are going to take up arms against the traitors, quislings and fifth columnists of the deep state Marxist conspiracy if the will of the people is thwarted. This is not something we want to encourage.

And even possibly as a reason to suspend the Benn Bill. It all seems very concerted today.

 

[8ball]

Who is 'they'?

Any brexit related fisticuffs isn't going to be orchestrated in some Russian money financed 'war room', it's going to be local fuckwits off the internet - the kind of idiots who post a stream of Britain First tripe - getting pissed and bashing constituency offices, Polish shops and MP's surgeries. It might, depending on circumstances there and then, go further than that or it may just stay as half-cut rantings and the odd brick thrown through a window.

What it won't be, in any real sense, is organised.

I don't seriously expect organisation in the way you mean, but in terms of the messaging, I don't think clear links between Boris-supportive media outlets and content pointing in the direction of MP's (as opposed to dark warnings of riots in general), is likely to be seen as an acceptable strategy.

I mean acceptable in terms of risk of backfire, obviously.

 

[Winot]

And even possibly as a reason to suspend the Benn Bill. It all seems very concerted today.

Summary here of all the ways people have suggested BJ can get round Benn Act with commentary on why they are unlikely to work.

 

[klang]

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bit too early in the day for me, but might get back to you later on that. how much?

 

[Wilf]

Cummings, Johnson et al want to see the deployment of leaver rage, but only at the level of shouting on question time, giving Lab and Lib MPs a hard time, creating a hostile atmosphere for remainers of all stripe. They want all that to propel their 'out by the 31st' juggernaut through all the inconvenient parliamentary hurdles. But they will be worried about where it goes. I don't see another Jo Cox, but who knows. You can't predict the random one off. I also can't see there being riots in the normal sense. It is likely to be demos outside MPs offices, maybe even this weekend. I think that all works for Johnson and he'll have a readymade line, 'look you caused that by ignoring the 2016 result'. But anything more than that is massively problematic. MP actually shoved to the floor? Their kids spat at? 100% rise in rape/death threats to female MPs? Not all that grand for the people being shoved/spat on/threatened of course, but adds plausibility to those arguing that Johnson is 'dangerous'.

 

[SpackleFrog]

as did I. Spacklefrog stood for them unless my memory betrays me

I didn't. Did some canvassing though.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Yes, but Brexit isn’t an answer to issues like the economy. It’s not a new economic model, its key deliverables as expressed by the Conservative and Brexit Parties are neoliberal trade arrangements. All you can really wrap up in it is the desire to be out of the EU and in itself that wasn’t a big deal until recently.

Crikey. We're going round in circles here tbh. I appreciate you don't think they are linked but it doesn't matter what you personally think, it matters how a big chunk of people perceive it and what motivates them. And if the last wasn't a big deal until recently then, again, why did all three of the big parties call for referendums, why did ukip dominate EU elections going back to Kilroy days etc. Come on. Anyway it's Friday and I'm gonna leave work now and eat and get pissed

 

[Rob Ray]

Brendan O'Neill has just 'called for riots' on Politics Live.

I doubt he'll get arrested for incitement (he's almost certainly well within the criteria) but it'd be quite something if, after years of moaning about gammons being silenced by the left, O'Neill finally saw a bit of what actual repression of free speech looks like.

 

[Argonia]

e

mdma