Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Sprocket.]

It doesn't seem to me that MPs spending large amounts of HoC time going on about their own working conditions, threats and so on, is likely to be very popular with the portion of the electorate which already thinks they are just faffing around instead of getting on with doing Brexit.

We have been discussing this, very heatedly at times this morning at work. The palaver is driving some previous Labour voters into a rage.
The majority are considering voting BP or spunking cock in protest.

 

[SpackleFrog]

potentially i could turn into gold but no one expects it to happen

I wish I shared your confidence. Johnson will go into an election with a narrative about how he wanted to deliver Brexit but the liberal establishment has used the courts to stop him, which to be fair is (unusually for him) pretty much true. How that plays out is unpredictable.

I agree that the most likely outcome is another hung Parliament. But I also think there is a possibility he can win a majority.

 

[brogdale]

My pure guess is that last night played well for the tories at least in terms of firming up their story of 'just get it done... labour are waffling traitors... HoC is irrelevant etc.' Same time,, that's them stuck now, can't really dial it back. Labour will be left going on about decency and the constitution or summat. They still haven't got anything convincing to say on brexit itself. Don't know where it ends, but Johnson's bulldozer is careering in, from his perspective, vaguely the right direction.

That's fine...if...the blustercunt is capable of 'getting it done'.

 

[Cid]

I wish I shared your confidence. Johnson will go into an election with a narrative about how he wanted to deliver Brexit but the liberal establishment has used the courts to stop him, which to be fair is (unusually for him) pretty much true. How that plays out is unpredictable.

I agree that the most likely outcome is another hung Parliament. But I also think there is a possibility he can win a majority.

He also has that kind of Teflon personality that is always going to be appealing to a pretty large segment of the voting public. Diminished but not ineffective.

I disagree on the effects of liberal interfering via courts, but we’re just going round in circles on that, and it’s certainly an effective narrative either way.

 

[SpackleFrog]

He also has that kind of Teflon personality that is always going to be appealing to a pretty large segment of the voting public. Diminished but not ineffective.

I disagree on the effects of liberal interfering via courts, but we’re just going round in circles on that, and it’s certainly an effective narrative either way.

If you agree that it's an effective narrative, then where do we disagree?

Another part of the narrative is going to be that *only* Johnson wanted to have an election and that everyone else didn't want one. That will work well for him too.

 

[teuchter]

An MP was murdered by some random over brexit. They're entitled to be concerned.

Yes, but it seems like something that ought to be dealt with separately from the main business of parliament.

 

[MrCurry]

Is that survey taken amongst Mail readers or the whole population? 53% remain is surprisingly high if it’s the former.

 

[Cid]

If you agree that it's an effective narrative, then where do we disagree?

Another part of the narrative is going to be that *only* Johnson wanted to have an election and that everyone else didn't want one. That will work well for him too.

I don’t think the liberal establishment has actually prevented him doing much, at least not through this court action. In a wider sense by not accepting a GE and various other stuff, I’d agree though. Certainly he’d be fully justified in painting his opponents as prevaricating, dishonest and at least attempting to use extra-parliamentary means to disrupt progress.

 

[Cid]

But the underlying fact that he’s achieved precisely fuck all, and that it’s mostly his and his party’s fault remains.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I don’t think the liberal establishment has actually prevented him doing much, at least not through this court action. In a wider sense by not accepting a GE and various other stuff, I’d agree though. Certainly he’d be fully justified in painting his opponents as prevaricating, dishonest and at least attempting to use extra-parliamentary means to disrupt progress.

He will be able to say they have prevented him from delivering Brexit on the 31st October, which they have (assuming he would somehow have got a deal in time which is generous obviously but he will say he would have).

 

[brogdale]

He will be able to say they have prevented him from delivering Brexit on the 31st October, which they have (assuming he would somehow have got a deal in time which is generous obviously but he will say he would have).

Crucially, doesn't shoot Farage's fox, though.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Crucially, doesn't shoot Farage's fox, though.

Yes, that's true, but as Labour moves further and further towards Remain the BP will cause plenty of problems for Labour too.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don’t think the liberal establishment has actually prevented him doing much, at least not through this court action. In a wider sense by not accepting a GE and various other stuff, I’d agree though. Certainly he’d be fully justified in painting his opponents as prevaricating, dishonest and at least attempting to use extra-parliamentary means to disrupt progress.

If he doesn't want to be in government, he could always resign. or call a vote of no confidence in himself and instruct his cabinet to vote against themselves. I just checked, and while it would be unusual, there's nothing to stop him from doing it.

I don't think he's justified in anything he does. He should call a vote of confidence in order to demonstrate that he has a right to form a government in the first place. In fact, that is how he could frame it - instructing his cabinet to vote 'confidence', he asks parliament to do the same to give him the moral authority to form the government and negotiate brexit.

 

[SpackleFrog]

If he doesn't want to be in government, he could always resign. or call a vote of no confidence in himself and instruct his cabinet to vote against themselves. I just checked, and while it would be unusual, there's nothing to stop him from doing it.

I don't think he's justified in anything he does. He should call a vote of confidence in order to demonstrate that he has a right to form a government in the first place.

It's not a great argument though is it? "If you really want an election, call a vote of no confidence in yourself, because we don't want to do it."

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It's not a great argument though is it? "If you really want an election, call a vote of no confidence in yourself, because we don't want to do it."

That's the labour party's problem. For the rest of us, we don't have to see anything Johnson does to try to cling to/win power as justified.

 

[SpackleFrog]

That's the labour party's problem. For the rest of us, we don't have to see anything Johnson does to try to cling to/win power as justified.

Including an election?

And isn't it your argument in this circumstance? "I don't want an election, call a vote of no confidence in yourself"?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Including an election?

And isn't it your argument in this circumstance? "I don't want an election, call a vote of no confidence in yourself"?

I don't have an argument at this particular point. I'm merely pointing out the options Johnson has if he really wants to dissolve his government. And given those options, I don't see anything he accuses others of as justified.

It's already constitutionally dubious whether or not he has the right to form a government now. If he actually cared about such things, he's call a vote of confidence immediately before doing anything else.

 

[cupid_stunt]

If he doesn't want to be in government, he could always resign. or call a vote of no confidence in himself and instruct his cabinet to vote against themselves. I just checked, and while it would be unusual, there's nothing to stop him from doing it.

I don't think he's justified in anything he does. He should call a vote of confidence in order to demonstrate that he has a right to form a government in the first place.

As I posted on the Johnson massive twat thread...

I think so, they could go on record as the only government to loss every vote, which is probably why they don't seem to want to call a vote of no confidence in themselves, it would be embarrassing doing so, but imagine going on to loss it.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I don't have an argument at this particular point. I'm merely pointing out the options Johnson has if he really wants to dissolve his government. And given those options, I don't see anything he accuses others of as justified.

It's already constitutionally dubious whether or not he has the right to form a government now. If he actually cared about such things, he's call a vote of confidence immediately before doing anything else.

This is spurious. You could equally argue that if the oppositon parties cared about whether or not he has the right to govern, then they would call a VoNC. The fact is that this govt's authority rests upon the will of Parliament, and that the will of Parliament is that the Johnson govt remain (ahem, sorry) in govt but not actually be able to do anything.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think so, they could go on record as the only government to loss every vote, which is probably why they don't seem to want to call a vote of no confidence in themselves, it would be embarrassing doing so, but imagine going on to loss it.

*If* they lost a VoNC in themselves though they could then claim a mandate to continue to govern.

I think...

God this is making my head hurt.

 

[Teaboy]

But the point of Johnson calling a vonc would be to lose it and in doing so bring about the GE they claim to want so badly. It may be the worry that some short term government would form and delay Brexit and the government don't want that but I think that would fit with their current strategy anyway.

Its almost as if they don't want the election now either and its all just parliamentary games.

 

[Pickman's model]

But the point of Johnson calling a vonc would be to lose it

 

[killer b]

I don't see anything he accuses others of as justified.

It doesn't really matter how you see it tbf. He's not talking to you.

 

[cupid_stunt]

*If* they lost a VoNC in themselves though they could then claim a mandate to continue to govern.

I think...

God this is making my head hurt.

They could, but they wouldn't actually be able to 'govern' in any meaningful way.

 

[Cloo]

Johnson's going to take us out with No Deal just to show that he can, isn't he?

 

[steveo87]

Johnson's going to take us out with No Deal just to show that he can, isn't he?

Yes.

 

[killer b]

No.

 

[Argonia]

Maybe.

 

[eoin_k]

Neither

 

[Argonia]

All of the above.