Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Teaboy]

You make two assumptions: 1. That Johnson means what he says. His final calculation on a deal or not will be this: does this win me an election. 2. That MPs and the opposition, despite their piss and bluster, think they can win a brexit GE. They can’t. Labour want and need an election about ‘what now’

Finally, ’the Prize’ for the HoC has always been ‘frictionless trade with the EU’. In other words remain part of the bloc and accept the rules. Any deal which offers this will, given the alternatives, attract support from MPs across the parties

I dunno you seem to be making a lot of assumptions as well. Firstly that any "brexit election" as you call it would be a walk in the park for the tories and a large majority. I don't see it as clearly as that by any means.

 

[Pickman's model]

I dunno you seem to be making a lot of assumptions as well. Firstly that any "brexit election" as you call it would be a walk in the park for the tories and a large majority. I don't see it as clearly as that by any means.

the next parliament will look the same as this one, sure some faces will change but there will be no party with any real majority.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

that's utter utter tosh, i'm sorry to say. there is no way at all that such a deal could be seriously proposed after all the talk of vassal states and so on. perhaps boris johnson could bring himself to ignore his rhetoric on the hulk, on vassal states and so on and shamelessly commend it to the house. but even if he could, he'd be toast the same day. it'd be signing his political death warrant, his party will never ever go for that. and nor will the opposition, not when the end game is in sight, the end game which results in the uk remaining in the eu.

The end game requires the opposition to win a referendum and a GE. Bluntly, I think they lack the bollocks. They will need to weigh up a deal that guarantees single market rules against winner takes all. Labour won’t risk a Brexit GE if at all possible. Let’s see

 

[Pickman's model]

The end game requires the opposition to win a referendum and a GE. Bluntly, I think they lack the bollocks. They will need to weigh up a deal that guarantees single market rules against winner takes all. Let’s see

the end game doesn't require that at all.

in fact a hung parliament makes a return to the people more certain.

 

[Pickman's model]

from today's mail Most British voters want a snap poll and think 'the Establishment' is determined to block Brexit | Daily Mail Online

there's no sign there that the tories will romp home

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I dunno you seem to be making a lot of assumptions as well. Firstly that any "brexit election" as you call it would be a walk in the park for the tories and a large majority. I don't see it as clearly as that by any means.

Yep. Totally agree. If you include a hung parliament with labour as the largest party as a win for labour from here regardless of the circumstances of the election, which I think we should, I think that's eminently possible.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Yep. Totally agree. If you include a hung parliament with labour as the largest party as a win for labour from here regardless of the circumstances of the election, which I think we should, I think that's eminently possible.

Except vote share is irrelevant. As with every GE it will turn on the marginals. The seats Labour need to win are overwhelmingly leave. They can pile votes up on remain seats it means fuck all.

Anyway, everyone, including me, is repeating arguments over and over here. So I’ll leave it there

 

[Pickman's model]

Anyway, everyone, including me, is repeating arguments over and over here. So I’ll leave it there

part of that is due to your attributing assumptions where they're not warranted, like your 'the opposition think they can win a ge'. tbh i think they think they can. but i don't think they can. i've been up front about this before so i don't know why you say things i neither think nor have given you grounds to believe i think.

 

[SpackleFrog]

that's utter utter tosh, i'm sorry to say. there is no way at all that such a deal could be seriously proposed after all the talk of vassal states and so on. perhaps boris johnson could bring himself to ignore his rhetoric on the hulk, on vassal states and so on and shamelessly commend it to the house. but even if he could, he'd be toast the same day. it'd be signing his political death warrant, his party will never ever go for that. and nor will the opposition, not when the end game is in sight, the end game which results in the uk remaining in the eu.

I agree GE is likely to lead to a hung Parliament. But to be fair Johnson has said himself he would accept May's deal without the backstop.

 

[Pickman's model]

I agree GE is likely to lead to a hung Parliament. But to be fair Johnson has said himself he would accept May's deal without the backstop.

that's very different to Smokeandsteam's deal incorporating membership of the single market. as johnson shows no signs of cobbling together an alternative to the backstop i am confident the dead deal is dead.

 

[Teaboy]

from today's mail Most British voters want a snap poll and think 'the Establishment' is determined to block Brexit | Daily Mail Online

there's no sign there that the tories will romp home

Jeez. Its difficult to pick the bones out of that. It just adds to the general picture of division everywhere and no clear route through it*.


*Apart from bloody revolution followed by full communism obvs.

 

[SpackleFrog]

that's very different to Smokeandsteam's deal incorporating membership of the single market. as johnson shows no signs of cobbling together an alternative to the backstop i am confident the dead deal is dead.

Provided he can't win a majority, yes, probably.

 

[Pickman's model]

Jeez. Its difficult to pick the bones out of that. It just adds to the general picture of division everywhere and no clear route through it*.


*Apart from bloody revolution followed by full communism obvs.

i've picked out three things

i don't see the state of the parties changing much, the bp one may be one to watch as they're imo more likely to take votes from the tories and so may gift labour some seats. the referendum question interesting, i really don't think that's going to swing back to brexit and is if anything going to move (imho) more to remain. and whether boris johnson can actually count on tory voters is open to question, i don't know whether he can.

 

[Pickman's model]

Provided he can't win a majority, yes, probably.

yeh well he can't win a majority

 

[Proper Tidy]

from today's mail Most British voters want a snap poll and think 'the Establishment' is determined to block Brexit | Daily Mail Online

there's no sign there that the tories will romp home

Majority of tories think johnson should go, lol

 

[Cid]

from today's mail Most British voters want a snap poll and think 'the Establishment' is determined to block Brexit | Daily Mail Online

there's no sign there that the tories will romp home

hmm... yougov’s latest (with times) a bit more in depth...

Johnson’s approval ratings are interesting. 70% of potential BP voters rate him as ‘competent’... 80% as ‘likeable’ (only 14 as incompetent/unlikeable)... which potentially indicates that many will end up ticking the conservative box when it comes to an actual election.

 

[Kaka Tim]

there is no deal johnson could get through parliament. The only deal he can get from the EU is May's deal - and (as pickmans says) that would be political suicide. opposition wont vote for it without 2nd ref attached - and his own party would never back that.
And nobody has any real idea what will happen in GE.
The tories will definitely loose seats to the lib dems - the brexit party will take votes from tory and labour - but its difficult to predict how many because we dont know where brexit will be. Also Johnson's tactic of acting the cunt in order to fire up the brexit base (and fend off farage) also has the potential to mobilise opposition to him - so could provoke a high degree of tactical voting.
Most likely outcome is another hung parliament - but there are so many variables its impossible to predict.

 

[Pickman's model]

hmm... yougov’s latest (with times) a bit more in depth...

Johnson’s approval ratings are interesting. 70% of potential BP voters rate him as ‘competent’... which potentially indicates that many will end up ticking the conservative box when it comes to an actual election.

i'm not going to get too deeply into psephology, which is imo - to paraphrase john lydon - mind games for the middle classes. but i think boris johnson is the person with most influence on the result. he could have had some hope of a majority if he'd been able to call an election immediately. but i think that the longer there isn't an election, the more his own weakness is going to become apparent. no previous prime minister has even been forced to harang or beg the opposition to go to the country. and the artificial deadline of 31 october marks the start of what i expect to be a decline in the tory vote and a rise for the brexit party. i don't foresee any bp mps but i wouldn't be surprised if the bp hand labour (or the lib dems) some tory scalps. the longer this goes on for, the more boris johnson's shortcomings are displayed to the electorate, the weaker i feel will be the tory share of the vote. esp if the claims about hacker house and the far right have validity.

 

[brogdale]

The tories will definitely loose seats to the lib dems - the brexit party will take votes from tory and labour - but its difficult to predict how many because we dont know where brexit will be.

At present, we don't...but by the day of the next GE, we will.
That's the merit of Corbyn's position of boxing the tories into the mess of their own making.

 

[DexterTCN]

 

[Pickman's model]

yeh it will be, there will be a degree of bile hitherto unseen

 

[brogdale]

No shit...



One notable obstacle being the Conservative & Unionist party.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Except vote share is irrelevant. As with every GE it will turn on the marginals. The seats Labour need to win are overwhelmingly leave. They can pile votes up on remain seats it means fuck all.

Anyway, everyone, including me, is repeating arguments over and over here. So I’ll leave it there

Fair enough not to want to labour this point, but from a clear two-horse race last time with nearly 85% of votes cast going to two parties, it will be very different this time. Both parties are likely to lose a large part of their vote, so the struggle isn't so much to convert people as to keep those you have. Who loses the most voters is the question here. I can see that being the tories, who have a lot to lose in remain areas. And who loses most to the brexit party? All the polls say it's the tories. Paradoxically, in places that voted majority leave that are con/lab marginals, anger about brexit not happening could let labour in - I'm thinking of places like Hastings. Sure labour will win huge majorities in places like London and liverpool that they would have won anyway, but not all this dynamic points to useless voter share.

 

[Wilf]

If Johnson did harbour any intent to get a deal II through the commons with Labour support, that prospect has surely now receded.
Can’t really imagine that any PLP would now go through the lobby with him.

My pure guess is that last night played well for the tories at least in terms of firming up their story of 'just get it done... labour are waffling traitors... HoC is irrelevant etc.' Same time,, that's them stuck now, can't really dial it back. Labour will be left going on about decency and the constitution or summat. They still haven't got anything convincing to say on brexit itself. Don't know where it ends, but Johnson's bulldozer is careering in, from his perspective, vaguely the right direction.

 

[not-bono-ever]

My only fall back pleasure in all of this shite is the holderlim paradigm

 

[SpackleFrog]

yeh well he can't win a majority

He can if he can get an election, potentially.

 

[Pickman's model]

He can if he can get an election, potentially.

potentially i could turn into gold but no one expects it to happen

 

[Sprocket.]

yeh it will be, there will be a degree of bile hitherto unseen

I have campaigned against Bear Bile in the past, I am in a quandary.

 

[teuchter]

It doesn't seem to me that MPs spending large amounts of HoC time going on about their own working conditions, threats and so on, is likely to be very popular with the portion of the electorate which already thinks they are just faffing around instead of getting on with doing Brexit.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It doesn't seem to me that MPs spending large amounts of HoC time going on about their own working conditions, threats and so on, is likely to be very popular with the portion of the electorate which already thinks they are just faffing around instead of getting on with doing Brexit.

An MP was murdered by some random over brexit. They're entitled to be concerned.