Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[gosub]

https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wp...ntent/uploads/2017/12/2017-12-08-08-37_01.pdf

3. As regards transition, the European Council notes the proposal put forward by the United Kingdom for a transition period of around two years, and agrees to negotiate a transition period covering the whole of the EU acquis,while the United Kingdom, as a third country, will no longer participate in or nominate or elect members of the EU institutions.

4. Such transitional arrangements, which will be part of the Withdrawal Agreement, must be in the interest of the Union, clearly defined and limited in time. In order to ensure a level playing field based on the same rules applying throughout the Single Market, changes to the acquis adopted by EU institutions and bodies will have to apply both in the United Kingdom and the EU.All existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures will also apply. As the United Kingdom will remain a member of the Customs Union and the Single Market (with all four freedoms) during the transition, it will have to continue to apply and collect EU customs tariffs and ensure all EU checks are being performed on the border vis-à-vis other third countries.

 

[Winot]

https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wp...ntent/uploads/2017/12/2017-12-08-08-37_01.pdf

3. As regards transition, the European Council notes the proposal put forward by the United Kingdom for a transition period of around two years, and agrees to negotiate a transition period covering the whole of the EU acquis,while the United Kingdom, as a third country, will no longer participate in or nominate or elect members of the EU institutions.

4. Such transitional arrangements, which will be part of the Withdrawal Agreement, must be in the interest of the Union, clearly defined and limited in time. In order to ensure a level playing field based on the same rules applying throughout the Single Market, changes to the acquis adopted by EU institutions and bodies will have to apply both in the United Kingdom and the EU.All existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures will also apply. As the United Kingdom will remain a member of the Customs Union and the Single Market (with all four freedoms) during the transition, it will have to continue to apply and collect EU customs tariffs and ensure all EU checks are being performed on the border vis-à-vis other third countries.

I can't see how it can work any other way. It does at least defer the need to install new customs checks.

It will however go down like a wet paper bag of sick with the Brexit head bangers. All it will take is the Daily Mail to point out that nothing has changed in relation to immigration and May will be in a precarious position. It's going to be interesting to see how that plays out.

 

[Raheem]

It will however go down like a wet paper bag of sick with the Brexit head bangers. All it will take is the Daily Mail to point out that nothing has changed in relation to immigration and May will be in a precarious position. It's going to be interesting to see how that plays out.

Might turn out to be a minor quibble in the scheme of things, though.

 

[gosub]

Might turn out to be a minor quibble in the scheme of things, though.

What, that potentially, five years after the referendum,the only real change is Farage is out of a job?

 

[Raheem]

What, that potentially, five years after the referendum,the only real change is Farage is out of a job?

Yeah, compared to forever.

 

[bemused]

if you're on Shitter and you enjoy that sort of thing I can recommend having a look at Daniel Hannan or Douglas Carswell's accounts. They're filled with Daniel and Douglas making technocrat-sounding statements about how the press/pundit class/the EU itself doesn't have the first idea about how all this beautiful free trade is going to work once Her Majesty's finest tea clippers are free to roam the globe selling our artificial intelligence flying cars and then being corrected 17,000 times on all the detail they've got wrong. I like it, but it might not be your thing.

Dan Hannan isn't that bad. Whenever I see, hear or read anything about Carswell I have this urge to swallow my tongue.

 

[bimble]

Theresa May goes on facebook to ask EU citizens to please stay. Things are weird, even without reading the comments.

 

[Pickman's model]

may's been winding me up for months now

 

[bemused]

I think the middle manager stuff is her element.

 

[Winot]

Dan Hannan isn't that bad. Whenever I see, hear or read anything about Carswell I have this urge to swallow my tongue.

Have you read Hannan's book? He comes across as reasonable in his style (lots of 'of course' this and 'naturally' that) but he's a proper right wing libertarian loon. Basically he sees Brexit as just the start of the road towards getting rid of the state entirely, so that companies aren't unduly hampered by pesky rules preventing them from maximising profit.

 

[Dogsauce]

That's not as easy as handing NI to the RoI.

If we do that, we’ll have all the DUP fruitcakes swimming across the Irish Sea to claim political asylum from the Pope. Is that really what we want?

 

[kabbes]

If we do that, we’ll have all the DUP fruitcakes swimming across the Irish Sea to claim political asylum from the Pope. Is that really what we want?

House 'em on the Isle of Wight.

 

[MightyTibberton]

Dan Hannan isn't that bad. Whenever I see, hear or read anything about Carswell I have this urge to swallow my tongue.

I find him pretty bad. He calls himself an "Old Whig". He's not joking.

He wants us to be Singapore or Switzerland to Europe but he - according to one of his supporters I was talking to - obfuscated this (free movement in Switzerland for example, Singapore is a tiny authoritarian city state) during the referendum campaign in order to keep a "winning coalition" together. He's been an MEP since 1999, he's sent his children to free EU supplied schools in Belgium and will - like the rest of them who say the parliament is an illegitimate organisation - no doubt collect his pension with no problem for his conscience.

Any mention of socialism and he's off on one about Venezuala.

And the amusing Twitter thread thing is sort of what I say it is. He makes some grandiose claim about Brexit and has to be corrected.

Carswell is now in "big data" with Thomas Borwick of Vote Leave.

 

[Pickman's model]

If we do that, we’ll have all the DUP fruitcakes swimming across the Irish Sea to claim political asylum from the Pope. Is that really what we want?

yes. very few of them, if any, will make it.

 

[bemused]

Have you read Hannan's book?

That would mean giving him money. I don't agree with him on a lot, although prior to Brexit he was suggesting an EFTA model for the UK which I thought wouldn't be too bad. He always seems polite and good-natured, which goes a long way in my book.

 

[Pickman's model]

That would mean giving him money.

non sequitur

 

[bemused]

non sequitur

That and it looked dull.

 

[MightyTibberton]

 

[Nylock]

Dan Hannan isn't that bad. Whenever I see, hear or read anything about Carswell I have this urge to swallow my tongue.

Not that bad?! Hannan is a cunt of the first order. Among his many examples of cuntitude is that he was one of the talking heads that helped fuel the 'NHS Death Panel' narrative when the Obamacare debate started heating up in the US. If that fucker has his way our healthcare system will be the full-blooded darwinian nightmare that is the US-style one quicker than you could say 'how much?!?!?!'. I wouldn't give him the steam off my piss!

 

[bemused]

Not that bad?! Hannan is a cunt of the first order. Among his many examples of cuntitude is that he was one of the talking heads that helped fuel the 'NHS Death Panel' narrative when the Obamacare debate started heating up in the US. If that fucker has his way our healthcare system will be the full-blooded darwinian nightmare that is the US-style one quicker than you could say 'how much?!?!?!'. I wouldn't give him the steam off my piss!

I'm not denying he's a twit, but I can watch him and not want to kill myself.

Funny you should mention death panels, I travel the US a fair bit at the moment and two weeks ago I was having lunch with some co-workers over there and death panels came up. I did my best to correct the notion that the NHS is one up from the folks who had a cart and called 'bring out your dead'

 

[Gramsci]

If at some point thousands of non-Irish citizens start using the land border as a way of illegally entering the UK it may be an issue. I'm not sure once we're outside the EU that illegal migration of EU citizens into the UK is going to be an issue anyway, there are plenty of other places those people can go to work with legal protections within the EU.
.

When you say "when we are outside the EU". Is that your personal opinion on Brexit? That once brexit happens EU nationals shouldn't be allowed here?

 

[Mordi]

If we do that, we’ll have all the DUP fruitcakes swimming across the Irish Sea to claim political asylum from the Pope. Is that really what we want?

..Yes?

You're welcome to them, I'd be more worried about those who'd stay to fight.
They, and me, would be pissed to find a Republic even less willing to subside us than our Imperial masters.

 

[bemused]

When you say "when we are outside the EU". Is that your personal opinion on Brexit? That once brexit happens EU nationals shouldn't be allowed here?

When we leave the EU we'll be outside of it. EU nationals will be able live and work here the same way anyone outside the EU can now - or whatever immigration agreement they end up with. As I understand it they'll be legacying in residency for people here already.

 

[Pickman's model]

..Yes?

You're welcome to them, I'd be more worried about those who'd stay to fight.
They, and me, would be pissed to find a Republic even less willing to subside us than our Imperial masters.

Subsidise?

 

[Mordi]

Subsidise?

Nah, it's a gradual plan to let the 6 counties slowly be reclaimed by the waves.

 

[Pickman's model]

Nah, it's a gradual plan to let the 6 counties slowly be reclaimed by the waves.

Innovative

 

[Gramsci]

The question is for how long, and what are the practicalities. CTA has been easy to implement because of the commonalities. If you're an EU citizen in Ireland legally, then currently you can legally stroll into the UK, no problem. Will that remain the case long term? If not, then the very fact there is misalignment and the need to handle it will put the CTA under threat. There's no such thing as a process that's invisible to British/Irish citizens and successfully filters everyone else.

This problem is a product of Ireland's EU membership and so didn't exist at the outset of the CTA. UK/Eire membership of the EU was simultaneous so there has never been this difference.

Ive tried to look up some of the issues. You are correct. Whilst CTA preceded EU membership over the years in updating CTA its been expanded to include other EU nationals. With Brexit the legislation around free movement of Irish will needed to be revisited. Its why the Labour MP I quoted put forward an amendment to the withdrawal bill. To try to ensure Eire citizens not only keep rights under CTA but to keep rights they got under EU.

https://www.freemovement.org.uk/brexit-briefing-impact-on-common-travel-area-and-the-irish/

Its going to be in the boring details of negotiations that this will be played out.

 

[Gramsci]

When we leave the EU we'll be outside of it. EU nationals will be able live and work here the same way anyone outside the EU can now - or whatever immigration agreement they end up with. As I understand it they'll be legacying in residency for people here already.

I was asking your opinion. Brexit doesnt have to mean ending free movement.

After all ROI , who btw left the Commonwealth, have rights for there citizens to free movement. This could be extended.

 

[bemused]

I was asking your opinion. Brexit doesnt have to mean ending free movement.

After all ROI , who btw left the Commonwealth, have rights for there citizens to free movement. This could be extended.

Free movement is going to end.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm not denying he's a twit, but I can watch him and not want to kill myself.

Funny you should mention death panels, I travel the US a fair bit at the moment and two weeks ago I was having lunch with some co-workers over there and death panels came up. I did my best to correct the notion that the NHS is one up from the folks who had a cart and called 'bring out your dead'

And Daniel Hannan is partly responsible for this notion. One of the main players pushing it in the US. He's not a twit. He's a complete cunt.