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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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Is it possible to see a Labour vote (government) as a 1st step to socialism at all?

Genuine question.
no, it isn't. If there was a parliamentary road to socialism, we would have found it a long, long time ago
e2a: I will still vote, and vote Labour, next time. But I will do so with very few illusions
 
Who is to say the failure of social democracy was not because of the historical conditions of that time or flaws in the institutions/political culture/tactics of socialist activists, and that we can't learn from these mistakes? Or perhaps things have changed so much that social democracy can now be used to abandon capitalism? These are at least things worth having a serious discussion about rather than dismissing outright.
We can look at the factors that drove the post-war consensus - a strong, militant w-c, capital's demand for a educated workforce - and see whether those factors are present today. They pretty clearly aren't, capital is now pushing for a larger "unskilled" workforce in order reduce the pay and conditions of workers even further. There are also the changes to the global political situation that IMO make a return to something like the post-war consensus unlikely. I think the post-war consensus arose out of a particular set of circumstances and those circumstances no longer exist. The post-war consensus is gone, and I've not seen any social democrat really address this.

We are all prisoners of our historical circumstances, and right now I cannot find any more productive use of my time politically than backing the Labour Party. (and I'm also involving in Diem25). Even if I took your objections to social democracy on board, and I do take them seriously, it means absolutely nothing practical to me and would just mean I go from supporting Labour and trying to push it leftwards to, well, doing nothing at all really. And you can't just blame me for not understanding it; if your politics are hard to figure out how to get involved in then that is a problem with your politics which you need to figure out a solution to. Left of Labour, the Trots are actually the most accessible but you also seem to have contempt for them too.
(my emphasis). Of course you'd still be doing things if you weren't in the Labour party. You'd still be working, you still interacting with your friends and family, all of that is political. The idea that the alternatives are joining the Labour party (or Trots) or doing nothing is nonsense, it's based on the assumption that the LP, or any other party, is the driver of change. It's not, the only force that is capable of improving society is the action of labour, is working-class insurgency.

Now you might feel that the best way to maximise the power of labour is to join the LP. Personally I think that is the wrong move, there's no shortage of examples of people that have joined the LP in order to use it only to end up being used by the party, nor of the examples of betrayal and selling out. However, while joining the LP is not a course I favour I do understand why people are doing it and there are people I consider comrades in the LP. But it's vital to recognise that the LP (or any party) cannot be anything but a tool, a means to an end. The post-war consensus wasn't brought about strong social democratic parties*, strong social democratic parties were brought about by the post-war consensus. Likewise any fight back against capital in the modern world will not originate from Labour but from labour.

As I said, personally I think joining the LP is a wrong move, and I'm perfectly willing to have that debate if you want, but what I'm criticising of SaskiaJaynes (and others) posts is not people joining the LP but the replacement of the working class with the Labour Party - or anything party/movement for that matter. You mentioned the failures of "parties guided by marxism", by which I presume you mean communist/socialist parties, well I'd argue that those failures were brought about by thinking I've outlined - the supposition of the party, or state, etc, for the working class. For me socialism means the workers control of the MoP, not the states/parties control of the MoP.


*It's worth noting that for much of the post-war consensus across the west centre-right parties were often in government and the centre-left in opposition, here, in Australia, in NZ etc.
 
I would say most pressing & widespread UK problem is housing. Those affected by insecure & unaffordable housing can find their lives blighted by it. Those unaffected may well be completely unaware there is any problem. To me there appears to be an easy solution. I was around in the 60s/70s when there was extensive council home building in Colchester. The supply of council housing was so good that even single people were applying for council flats & moving in just in months. Rents were contolled & low. Private sector rents were equally low £4pw for bedsit with wages for even low paid jobs well over £20pw by the early 70s.

So build council houses on the scale of what has been easily achieved in the past. It just needs an incoming government with the will to do it. Corbyn claims he will build a million council houses. Whether he delivers or not it is achievable just like reforming employment law is quite achievable so is bringing railways back into public ownership as the franchises run out. Other repatriation of once public assets back to public ownership is less achievable if one remains pragmatic but is possible over a much longer term. The Tories will do none of that so we can at least see if Labour will.

What I do know is that people around me who previously had no interest in voting are willing to vote Labour. They are prepared to give it a go. If Labour are returned with a large mandate then they will have to make a good attempt to deliver on their promises. If they do not then we will feel free to take to the streets.
 
'A bleedin mess'

'Worst decade for UK productivity since Napoleon'

Britain is now suffering its worst decade for productivity - the broadest measure of fundamental economic performance - for as long as two centuries, according to Sky News analysis.


Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that productivity - calculated by dividing gross domestic product by the number of hours people worked - is now lower than it was a decade ago.

The ONS said output per hour fell by 0.5% in the first three months of the year. That brought the level down back below where it was at the end of 2007.

According to Sky News analysis based on Bank of England and ONS data, that means Britain's economy has now experienced its least productive decade for more than two centuries, since the era of George III, when Britain was mired in the Napoleonic wars - and at war with America.

Why there's little hope for Greece's unemployed

If you want evidence of how dire the situation is in Greece, just look at its long-term unemployment figures.

Eurostat figures show 73.5pc of people who were unemployed in Greece in 2014 had been out of work for more than a year, compared with 67.1pc in 2013.

Attiki, which includes Athens and Piraeus, has the highest long-term unemployment share of any European region - at 77.3pc. The western Greek region of Dytiki Ellada isn't far behind, with a long-term unemployment share of 76.7pc.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s speech at the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s ceremony to mark the start of the 2017 business year – miniszterelnok.hu

First of all, I find it very important that we should preserve our ethnic homogeneity. Nowadays one can say such a thing, though a few years ago one would have been executed for such a turn of phrase. But now one can say things like that, because life has confirmed that too much mixing causes trouble

Police in Catalonia hunt for hidden ballot boxes in bid to foil refere

MADRID (Reuters) - Armed police in Spain have raided several print works and newspaper offices in Catalonia in recent days in a hunt for voting papers, ballot boxes and leaflets to be used in an Oct. 1 independence referendum which Madrid vehemently opposes.
 
Amazing how politics began and ended on the 24th of June 2016
Certainly then plenty of people who had never voted before realised their vote could actually make a difference & they know it can make difference again. So that was the date politics began for many but it has not ended yet.
 
Certainly then plenty of people who had never voted before realised their vote could actually make a difference & they know it can make difference again. So that was the date politics began for many but it has not ended yet.

and of course plenty of others realised in horror that their vote mattered and that they could make a difference.
 
I remember thinking post-2008 as austerity bit harder ‘why aren’t people rioting?’.

And then on 23 June 2016 they in effect did. And stupidly I didn’t see it coming.
 
and of course plenty of others realised in horror that their vote mattered and that they could make a difference.
I find it difficult to believe that people who voted leave did not actually want to leave at the time. Often people do not like uncertainty & they may not like the uncertainty brexit has brought but imo the uncertainty is likely to help elect Corbyn Labour which I view as rather more important than the end result of brexit. I think those that voted for the first time in the referendum are most likely to vote Labour if they vote again.
 
People have been looking for a parliamentary road to socialism for well over a hundred years. Engels thought it would be found very quickly.

Plus in the intervening time we've gone through far better setups for that road to be walked than either then or now. I still don't get what the reasoning is to think a Britain crushed between the US/EU/China in a hegemonic neoliberal system with a rampantly powerful, globalised, highly mobile elite against a working class with no properly functioning extraparliamentary organs of class struggle is going to have its fortunes turned around in any meaningful way by the election of Labour. Reforms which might temporarily give some people a break, okay that could be plausible and is not necessarily to be sniffed at, but a road to socialism? No.
 
So build council houses on the scale of what has been easily achieved in the past. It just needs an incoming government with the will to do it. Corbyn claims he will build a million council houses.
He can claim what he likes. How will Jeremy deliver this ? Does he think developers and house builders will suddenly stop erecting luxury flats and student accomodation to concentrate on something with no instant profits ? Never mind having the will, where is the land and finance for all these houses coming from ?
 
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