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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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This is a good thread that has evolved over it’s run time as poster’s opinions might have altered over the evolving period of brexit. One has to hope it can get back on track.

I'll try. First up I'm glad people already in the UK are going to have the right to stay for as long as they wish. Ditto UK nationals abroad. Whilst I never seriously thought it would come to deportations, I'm really glad it's been cleared up.

I'm also glad there will be no hard border in Ireland.

Now, is anyone any clearer if we are staying in the EEA or not? Cos I'm very confused.
 
We will have to wait & see. Obviously politics must always be about the art of the possible but with the Tories as only alternative I will be certainly be happy to see a majority Corbyn led Labour government come to power & see what sort of a fist they make of it. If they build council houses that will be an improvement.
Yeh. But iyo corbyn-led labour in power worth all the racist attacks and deportation attempts. I'm not so sure, especially as Corbyn-led govt by no means a certain thing.
 
Yeh. But iyo corbyn-led labour in power worth all the racist attacks and deportation attempts. I'm not so sure, especially as Corbyn-led govt by no means a certain thing.
You don’t have to be for or against brexit. I’ve always been happy to be a fence sitter. The EU project is nice if it’s all of Europe helping each other so theres no WW3 etc which is why I think some folk are so devastated at the prospect of leaving but of course the EU is a neolib construct who is happy to see workers bulk transported across the face of Europe to be exploited in more wealthy countries at the expense of local workers. The UK has embraced this ethos more so than say Holland & France who have worked within the EU rules & their own domestic employment law to miminise migration unlike UK who has done as much as possible to encourage it.

This is how we got to brexit. If it gets us a Labour government then I will be happy with that & then go from there.
 
You don’t have to be for or against brexit. I’ve always been happy to be a fence sitter. The EU project is nice if it’s all of Europe helping each other so theres no WW3 etc which is why I think some folk are so devastated at the prospect of leaving but of course the EU is a neolib construct who is happy to see workers bulk transported across the face of Europe to be exploited in more wealthy countries at the expense of local workers. The UK has embraced this ethos more so than say Holland & France who have worked within the EU rules & their own domestic employment law to miminise migration unlike UK who has done as much as possible to encourage it.

This is how we got to brexit. If it gets us a Labour government then I will be happy with that & then go from there.
Yeh. And if there is no labour govt?
 
If Corbyn doesn't win the next election his successor will almost certainly win the one after. The Tories have won the last three elections. Four elections in a row is rare, five is unheard of. It's shit for everyone suffering now, but providing Labour keeps left we *will* have a socialist government at some point in the next nine and a half years.

And as Jayne says we then go from there....
 
To return to your it's all worth it if Corbyn wins the election: what if your test falls and it's not been worth it? Obvs "we go from there" but where would you have us go?
In other threads & probably somewhere in this one I will have referred to the haves & have nots in the context of the house owners & the non house owners. As time passes then naturally as owners decrease & the non owners increase the more the likely a party that promises to build a million council houses will be to be elected. It is perverse to believe that voters who need affordable housing & an NHS will vote for a Tory government that promises to turn the UK into the USA. Why should brexit not be owned by lexit? I can see no reason. Demographcally it has to happen.
 
In other threads & probably somewhere in this one I will have referred to the haves & have nots in the context of the house owners & the non house owners. As time passes then naturally as owners decrease & the non owners increase the more the likely a party that promises to build a million council houses will be to be elected. It is perverse to believe that voters who need affordable housing & an NHS will vote for a Tory government that promises to turn the UK into the USA. Why should brexit not be owned by lexit? I can see no reason. Demographcally it has to happen.
Yeh. Only there is no necessity that it is a left-wing party that makes the promise. It wasn't after all a left-wing government which introduced social security to this country, or which built the first social housing. Things have a way of turning out as they shouldn't more frequently than they end as they should.
 
If Corbyn doesn't win the next election his successor will almost certainly win the one after. The Tories have won the last three elections. Four elections in a row is rare, five is unheard of. It's shit for everyone suffering now, but providing Labour keeps left we *will* have a socialist government at some point in the next nine and a half years.

And as Jayne says we then go from there....
Yeh. Let's not forget that Blair considered himself a socialist. You're rather more sanguine than I am a) that a Labour government will be elected, and b) that they will be better than the current shower.
 
If Corbyn doesn't win the next election his successor will almost certainly win the one after. The Tories have won the last three elections. Four elections in a row is rare, five is unheard of. It's shit for everyone suffering now, but providing Labour keeps left we *will* have a socialist government at some point in the next nine and a half years.

And as Jayne says we then go from there....

You could argue that Thatcher won nine elections on the bounce, and one of those from beyond the grave.
 
You could argue that Thatcher won nine elections on the bounce, and one of those from beyond the grave.
Yeah, I actually make it ten! The three she actually did win plus the one Major won makes four. Then you've got the three Blair won makes seven, the two Cameron wins makes nine and the one ( so far) May has won.
 
Yeah, I actually make it ten! The three she actually did win plus the one Major won makes four. Then you've got the three Blair won makes seven, the two Cameron wins makes nine and the one ( so far) May has won.

I'm counting May's as a loss, or at least a no-score draw.
 
mainly macro: First Stage Reality and Brexiters

Good blog here on the oddity that Tory Brexiteer aren't kicking up a fuss. They can't, runs the argument, because if they accept that last week's agreement makes some version of CU and SM inevitable, with FOM in all but name, then they leave open the question of why we are doing this at all. There's no prospect of a job for Fox, or of reducing immigration. So the only thing they can hold on to is BINO with all influence abandoned, because the alternative is to concede that it makes more sense to revoke.
 
Cameron didn't win an election in 2010, in that case.
Yeah I'm counting a win as most votes and most seats, not necessarily an overall majority.

You can't seriously argue Theresa May was running on a platform that differed massively from Thatcherism, and nor for that matter were the DUP.

To me, this year's election was another win for Mrs T, although arguably it was her closest yet.
 
Yeah I'm counting a win as most votes and most seats, not necessarily an overall majority.

You can't seriously argue Theresa May was running on a platform that differed massively from Thatcherism, and nor for that matter were the DUP.

To me, this year's election was another win for Mrs T, although arguably it was her closest yet.

May's platform was different from Thatcherism in some ways that felt important to her and to Nick Timothy and might possibly have represented an advance on Thatcherism, if they hadn't been drowned out by dog-whistling to a socially conservative base, by her absurd interpretation of the referendum result, and by her acceptance (more or less) of Osborneomics. Worker representation on boards, for instance. That was an interesting idea. There's definitely a strand of post-crash Toryism which is sceptical about business in a way that has usefully shifted debates about regulation and governance.

Obviously I'd argue with you about 1997, 2001, and 2005. But that's a separate debate, and it ends with one side shouting "sure start and minimum wage" while the other side shouts "Iraq", and who wants that?
 
Here's Eamonn McCann on the deal:

While politicians and commentators from all points on the conservative spectrum are debating the meaning of the latest EU fudge, one thing is certain – the deal speeds the militarisation of the union and copper-fastens austerity.

This was made crystal clear by EU negotiator Michel Barnier in a speech to the Berlin Security Conference on November 30th. Minutes after he stepped off the platform, he hot-footed it to Dublin, where he will have known he was guaranteed a hearty welcome. For bone-headed Nationalists of one sort and another, he was a grand fellow altogether as long as he kept bashing the Brits.

Nobody in Ireland could be blamed for enjoying the humiliation of May, Davis, Johnston etc. in the last few weeks. They had it coming. Millions of British people, too, were chuckling at their discomfiture.

But we shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking that Barnier, Tusk and the rest of the Brussels bureaucracy have the interests of the mass of the Irish people at heart. Far from it.

It’s worth quoting Barnier’s account in Berlin of progress towards a militarised EU with a common foreign policy and an army capable idea of defending European interests anywhere in the world. He celebrated how far the Union had come and outlined “the road-map we need to follow between now and 2025.”
“In September 2014, Jean Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, called for a relaunch of European defence.
“In June 2016, Federica Mogherini renewed our integrated approach with the Global Strategy on Foreign and Security Policy, which defines the Union's level of ambition as a global player.
“In a historic declaration in July 2016, President Juncker, Donald Tusk and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg relaunched the strategic partnership between the European Union and NATO.
“In November 2016, Vice-President Jyrki Katainen and Commissioner Elżbieta Bieńkowska proposed a European Defence Fund so that defence technologies and equipment could be financed jointly from the European budget for the first time.
“In June 2017, we strengthened our capacity to plan and conduct external operations – including training missions in Mali, Somalia and Central African Republic.
“Also in June 2017, the Commission set out ideas for discussion on the future of Europe's defence, even suggesting the establishment of a common defence.
“Most recently, on 20 November 2017 in Brussels, 23 Member States stated their intention of implementing the Permanent Structured Cooperation [PESCO]. This initiative, which owes a great deal to the personal determination of the German Minister Ursula von der Leyen, will serve to step up the commitment to European defence – in terms of capacity and at operational and industrial level.”

All this with a “global” reach.

The four of the 27 States which didn’t sign up were Denmark, Malta, Portugal, Ireland and, of course, the UK. The Dail put that “right” as far as Ireland is concerned on December 7th with a vote to sign the pact, supported by Fine Gael and Fianna Fail and a number of “Independent” TDs beholden to the government. It had taken them a week to come around to doing what the EU bosses wanted.

As Robert Emmet didn’t say - “Ireland has taken her place among the imperialist nations of the earth” – to the cheers of some who fancy themselves as “anti-imperialists.”

What’s the relevance of all this to Brexit? Barnier explained:

“The United Kingdom has not been the spearhead of European defence.
“The British contribution to EU-led military operations is limited - barely five percent of the personnel deployed.
“The British have never wanted to turn the Union into a military power.
“The British have always resisted setting up a European Headquarters.”

Now, with the Brits out of the way, it’s full steam ahead for Irish armoured cars, and tanks and guns to join with the French, Italians, Germans etc. in confronting any threat, real or imagined, to Western, and specifically EU interests.

Of course, the reason the British were so stand-offish from the notion of an EU army had nothing to do with a distaste for militarism, but everything to do with the Tories’ continuing delusions of imperial grandeur. Whatever the reason, the departure of Britain removes an obstacle to the expansive, military scheming of the cabal at the top of the EU.

Does anybody imagine that Dublin will be allowed to dodge its “duty?” Not a chance. The EU States, as they constantly tell us, have stood shoulder-to-shoulder with the South in facing down Britain. Tusk emphasised that the Irish would have a veto over whatever agreement emerged. “We will consult Leo Varadkar before accepting an agreement.”

Commentators in every Dublin newspaper gloried in the State’s new status, a fully-fledged member of the elite at last, stronger than Britain for the first time in history in a set-piece confrontation.

But there’s pay-back to come. No chance, none at all of the Irish being given a bye-ball when it comes, for example, to repelling desperate people risking their lives in efforts to cross the Mediterranean. Most Irish people felt good about themselves as the navy ship LÉ Eithne rescued hundreds from the sea and took them to shore in an EU country.

It’s highly unlikely the EU will allow that sort of thing in future. EU policy on migrants plucked from the Mediterranean is to dump them back in Libya, a failed State as a result of bombardment by EU States, where they can be subjected to torture, rape and murder.

Meanwhile, more than a thousand kilometres of barbed wire “protects” the EU’s eastern flank from “invasion” by refugees.

Soft border? Not if you are a refugee.

These are some of the implications of the deal welcomed by Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein and Labour in the South, by the DUP, UUP, Sinn Fein and Alliance in the North.

In the run-up to the EU referendum, People Before Profit denounced the EU, urged both NI and the Republic to leave, and advanced the slogan “In or Out, the fight goes on.”

Events of the last few days confirms us in this view.
 
You could argue that Thatcher won nine elections on the bounce, and one of those from beyond the grave.
This was because people were able to buy their own homes, watch them go up in value, remortgage & buy cars & holidays. Life was good for many for a while & for those sitting in their paid for homes it still is. Blair nicked the ‘97 onwards GEs by stealing the tories clothes. It was just a cynical & expertly executed power grab. The good times that arrived for older people gradually watered down to where we are now with the expanding younger demographic experiencing none of these good times.

For a few yrs any suggestion of building council housing by Labour was countered by Tory accusations of “stifling ambition” but nobody believes this anymore. I think change will come inevitably simply from the expanding younger demographic.
 
Was just listening to the Saturday Any Questions and David Gauke (DWP SoS) pretty much admitted that the UK would be staying in the SM and CU for the transitional period.

This is sensible but what will Tory Brexit die-hards make of it?

Also, I'm still not clear how a transitional period works - I saw some commentary that suggested that you couldn't have a transitional agreement until you knew what you were transitioning to. However a deferral of the Art 50 period would seem politically impossible for May, because then we won't have left the EU by end March 2019.
 
I think one has to see where we are today as simply work in progress. I don’t think there is much indication right now of exactly where this is going. I think that the ultra capitalist dreams of the hard brexiteers will not be realised. Gove’s desperation is apparant in his Torygraph article today. I did always think that after the brexit result the work would start to make leave look as much like remain as possible. In a sense this will be a good compromise & allow the government of the day to address the real problems in this country.
 
I think one has to see where we are today as simply work in progress. I don’t think there is much indication right now of exactly where this is going. I think that the ultra capitalist dreams of the hard brexiteers will not be realised.

Actually I would consider myself a hard(ish*) Brexiteer but my dreams are anything but ultra capitalist.


*ish, in the sense that I don't want to stay in the EEA, which I consider remain by the back door. I'm pretty agnostic about the customs union, and if it helps avoid a hard border in Ireland, then fine, but I'm dead against staying in the EEA.
 
Actually I would consider myself a hard(ish*) Brexiteer but my dreams are anything but ultra capitalist.


*ish, in the sense that I don't want to stay in the EEA, which I consider remain by the back door. I'm pretty agnostic about the customs union, and if it helps avoid a hard border in Ireland, then fine, but I'm dead against staying in the EEA.
I would see the end game as more to improving the quality of life of ordinary people in the UK more than a rigid ideology. Clearly the UK political model that began at the end of the 70s is not fit for purpose & really never was but in order to vote in something new within the system we have here then voters have to vote for change & importantly those who have never seen the point of voting have to be persauded to vote for change. Real politics has to be about the art of the possible otherwise it remains as political theory.

So I tend to see brexit however it turns out more as a means to an end which is the election of a majority Corbyn led Labour government. This is possible which is why it matters. It has already been pointed out elsewhere in the thread that the prosperity of a country counts for little if that prosperity is not fairly distributed which leads us neatly back to the reason for the leave vote.
 
This was because people were able to buy their own homes, watch them go up in value, remortgage & buy cars & holidays. Life was good for many for a while & for those sitting in their paid for homes it still is. Blair nicked the ‘97 onwards GEs by stealing the tories clothes. It was just a cynical & expertly executed power grab. The good times that arrived for older people gradually watered down to where we are now with the expanding younger demographic experiencing none of these good times.

For a few yrs any suggestion of building council housing by Labour was countered by Tory accusations of “stifling ambition” but nobody believes this anymore. I think change will come inevitably simply from the expanding younger demographic.
What expanding younger demographic?

You're having a laugh

united-kingdom-population-pyramid-2016.gif
 
What expanding younger demographic?

You're having a laugh

united-kingdom-population-pyramid-2016.gif
At least try to understand context. You can do that by reading the post. It’s the expanding younger generation of non house owners aka generation rent who cannot afford to get onto the housing ladder. Whose housing costs are becoming increasingly unaffordable due to the housing shortage & not the older generation of house owners who will gradually die because nobody lives forever. When people become 18 they can vote. When they die they cannot. All clear now?

Now a challenge for you Pickers. Instead of googling for pointless graphs to make zero scoring points why not post some original content?
 
At least try to understand context. You can do that by reading the post. It’s the expanding younger generation of non house owners aka generation rent who cannot afford to get onto the housing ladder. Whose housing costs are becoming increasingly unaffordable due to the housing shortage & not the older generation of house owners who will gradually die because nobody lives forever. When people become 18 they can vote. When they die they cannot. All clear now?

Now a challenge for you Pickers. Instead of googling for pointless graphs to make zero scoring points why not post some original content?
I have, chuck, I already have.
 
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