Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[littlebabyjesus]

He can claim what he likes. How will Jeremy deliver this ? Does he think developers and house builders will suddenly stop erecting luxury flats and student accomodation to concentrate on something with no instant profits ? Never mind having the will, where is the land and finance for all these houses coming from ?

There is a very easy way to do it, which is to do exactly what private companies do. You borrow the money. Only difference is that a government can borrow at a better rate than private companies. You could even make it a symbolic thing by releasing new housing bonds or something.

All that quantitative easing could have gone towards council housing if the political will to do it had been there.

 

[gosub]

There is a very easy way to do it, which is to do exactly what private companies do. You borrow the money. Only difference is that a government can borrow at a better rate than private companies. You could even make it a symbolic thing by releasing new housing bonds or something.

All that quantitative easing could have gone towards council housing if the political will to do it had been there.

Would have undermined the stability of the banks rather than shoring them up

 

[SaskiaJayne]

He can claim what he likes. How will Jeremy deliver this ? Does he think developers and house builders will suddenly stop erecting luxury flats and student accomodation to concentrate on something with no instant profits ? Never mind having the will, where is the land and finance for all these houses coming from ?

Some things are doable by an incoming Labour government. Others like destroying global capitalism or state requisitioning of PFI hospitals probably are not. Large scale council house building has been done by UK governments before. It was done because there was a need for affordable good housing for people to live securely with their families & build their futures. The money is there. The land around towns is there. So it can be done.

 

[redsquirrel]

It was done because there was a need for affordable good housing for people to live securely with their families & build their futures. The money is there. The land around towns is there. So it can be done.

But that's been true of the last 150+ years, why did such building occur after WWII but not pre-WWI, not between the wars, why has it not occurred in the last 40 years.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

But that's been true of the last 150+ years, why did such building occur after WWII but not pre-WWI, not between the wars, why has it not occurred in the last 40 years.

That's a good question. However, whatever its answer, there are no real blockers to doing it now. It's not something that would be blocked by capital. There are even sectors on the right that want to see this happen, and there would be no shortage of pension funds or insurance companies to take up long-term housing bonds.

Not quite true about housing between the wars, btw. A fair bit was built.

 

[redsquirrel]

Not quite true about housing between the wars, btw. A fair bit was built.

Yes that was slightly rhetorical, but the point is key. The welfare state no more came about because of Labour government than the WWI came about because of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand.

 

[teuchter]

Look at what's happening in Scotland - right to buy abolished, and a much greater commitment to building new social rent housing than in E&W. It's what people vote for. It's not impossible.

 

[kebabking]

... The money is there. The land around towns is there. So it can be done.

The money may be there to buy the bricks and pay the Brickies, but the price of land - whether land earmarked for development, agricultural land in places people might like to live, or even wet bog in the uplands of mid-Wales - has shot up exponentially in the last 20 years.

You don't think that 300 miles of railway track costs £40billion do you - it's the land to put the tracks on that's costing the money, not what you put on it.

I don't think Labour have a clue where they will build a million homes - and it will need to be 2 million by 2025.

My neighbour, who farms the land at the back of my house, says that his land increases in value by 10% every time Corbyn voices the word 'housing'. Either an incoming Labour government pays through the nose for the land in wants, or it puts compulsory purchase legislation through and spends the next 5 years fighting it out in the courts.

The abandoned air bases have gone, there's very little easy pickings left...

 

[DotCommunist]

Yes that was slightly rhetorical, but the point is key. The welfare state no more came about because of Labour government than the WWI came about because of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand.

housing was a word on a lot of politicians lips back then ennit, iirc N. Chamberlain was in housing before he rose to become the man with the piece of paper

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

But that's been true of the last 150+ years, why did such building occur after WWII but not pre-WWI, not between the wars, why has it not occurred in the last 40 years.

The tragic answer to this is that after WW2 the rich saw the genuine slums that the majority of the country were living in and realised that if they wanted their gilded existence to continue they need to close the gap a little and let people live in sanitary, warm houses. That done they set about fleecing the poor again for every last penny and what we saw with pig fucker and chums was a continuation of that fleecing without the awareness that you need to at least toss a few crumbs to the proles. Hence Brexit.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Either an incoming Labour government pays through the nose for the land in wants, or it puts compulsory purchase legislation through and spends the next 5 years fighting it out in the courts.

First tax the shit out of anyone holding on to buildable land and not building on it, then watch as the building firms either suddenly decide to start building houses (to improved mandatory standards of quality, efficiency and design) or sell their land off cheap.

Also make it illegal to build those nightmarish squiggle estates with dozens of roads, none of which lead anywhere. And bring back terraces. This might need a new thread actually.

 

[Gramsci]

I can't see any real reluctance from the UK government to revert to the settled status of Irish citizens postt Brexit.

It looks like now the deal with EU is that existing EU nationals will have rights protected. At this point. Things may change. There is a long way to go.

That doesn't apply to EU nationals coming here after whatever cut off date is agreed.

The article I put up points out that over the years the rights of citizens of the Republic of Ireland have been connected to being in the EU.

I've recently had chats with brexit supporters. When I bring up issue of EU nationals living here they shrug there shoulders and say "something" will be worked out. When pressed one said the government could have a Green Card type Policy I pointed out that is less rights than they have now. At which point he started to get annoyed.

The other said Brexit has been decided but existing EU nationals will stay. When asked how he had no answer. Again this person started to get annoyed.

I work with EU nationals like Poles. For years. They are my friends. My partner is from another EU country. This isn't some abstract political issue for me.

This government imo would not have given any gaurentees to EU nationals unless forced to in these negotiations.

 

[bemused]

The article I put up points out that over the years the rights of citizens of the Republic of Ireland have been connected to being in the EU.

The common travel area between the Republic and the UK existed prior to the EU and is still UK law, the 1971 immigration act grants Irish citizens settled status. I've not seen anyone suggest that the CTA is to be abolished. the UK and Irish governments have committed to it, so unless the EU has some problem maintaining the arrangement I can't see why it changes.

As far as I can tell the real issue the EU has with UK/Irish relations is how they exclude the UK from full access to the single market whilst retaining their commitment to the GFA.

 

[gosub]

The common travel area between the Republic and the UK existed prior to the EU and is still UK law, the 1971 immigration act grants Irish citizens settled status. I've not seen anyone suggest that the CTA is to be abolished. the UK and Irish governments have committed to it, so unless the EU has some problem maintaining the arrangement I can't see why it changes.

As far as I can tell the real issue the EU has with UK/Irish relations is how they exclude the UK from full access to the single market whilst retaining their commitment to the GFA.

Brexit deal allows for three different types of Irish Border

 

[Gramsci]

The common travel area between the Republic and the UK existed prior to the EU and is still UK law, the 1971 immigration act grants Irish citizens settled status. I've not seen anyone suggest that the CTA is to be abolished. the UK and Irish governments have committed to it, so unless the EU has some problem maintaining the arrangement I can't see why it changes.

As far as I can tell the real issue the EU has with UK/Irish relations is how they exclude the UK from full access to the single market whilst retaining their commitment to the GFA.

The issue for citizens of republic is whether the rights they have here in UK will remain the same. Rights of access to free NHS care for example. The Labour MP Bill Conor McGinn amendment to the EU withdrawal bill still going through parliament is to ensure this.

My reading of this issue is that the situation of the rights of citizens of the Irish Republic here are at best unclear post Brexit. The rights of Eire citizens have been built up over years. It's not just the law but now it's been interpreted. Belonging to EU is a factor.

I've tried reading some of the legal arguments and it's complicated. I can understand why the Labour MP is making this an issue. His amendment is to ensure Irish here now from republic have all the rights they had under EU as well as rights under previous UK agreements.

Another thing about settled status. My Irish friend who grew up here but whose father migrated to London from the republic has never been interested in being naturalised as British. He , despite growing up here, holds Eire passport. So what's his status going to be? I'm not clear on this..

See here:

However, an academic at the University of Leicester believes this could be called into question due to the inevitable overhaul of legislation following the referendum on EU membership.

“It’s assumed that when Irish people come to the UK, they have this ‘special status’ but it’s not rooted in legislation or at least not based strongly enough in legislation,” said Professor Bernard Ryan. “Things are likely to change for EU citizens coming to the UK after Brexit but there needs to be a separate discussion with regards to the Irish.

“It is something which needs to be sorted out because we can’t rely on what is already there.”

NEW LAW NEEDED TO KEEP IRISH RIGHTS - Irish World

I don't like to much cut and paste but with Brexit existing rights need to be clarified or several years down the line Irish in Britain of those who come here post Brexit could find themselves in situation where there rights to move freely and rights to services are curtailed. This isn't to do with EU. Im not so sanguine about existing rights being ensured in the future.

 

[bemused]

Brexit deal allows for three different types of Irish Border

It's the movement of goods and services they are struggling with, the movement of people isn't an issue. There is no reason to change the CTA.

 

[bemused]

The issue for citizens of republic is whether the rights they have here in UK will remain the same.

Any change would require changing laws that existed prior to EU membership. The common travel area has existed since the 1950s. I can understand why people may want it clarified but the movement and rights of Irish citizens as it stands will be the same as they were prior to 1973 - which is the same as they are now. Nothing in the EU would prevent that bilateral agreement.

The issue isn't people, its things. Can I sell a product I make in the Republic in Northern Ireland after Brexit? At the moment not without a tariff.

Here is the government paper on the CTA The Common Travel Area and the special status of Irish nationals in UK law - Commons Library briefing - UK Parliament

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Something that explains many a vote for Carmichael.

I have never voted Carmichael and indeed my best friend was in amongst the Orkney four! But they like the guy because he does the local thing well. And I get that, why should they give a shit about anything outside of Orkney. Plus SNP voters tend to call them all zombies. The Orkney "left" is as much to blame for that.

Edit: Carmichaels bairns were bullied in school off the back of that carry on too, so it was all about tensions running high, people being understandably upset friends and neighbours were being picked on, that kind of thing. It's hard when it gets personal, what do you say?

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

The Orkney Four being the guys that took the cunt to court.

 

[Gramsci]

Any change would require changing laws that existed prior to EU membership. The common travel area has existed since the 1950s. I can understand why people may want it clarified but the movement and rights of Irish citizens as it stands will be the same as they were prior to 1973 - which is the same as they are now. Nothing in the EU would prevent that bilateral agreement.

The issue isn't people, its things. Can I sell a product I make in the Republic in Northern Ireland after Brexit? At the moment not without a tariff.

Here is the government paper on the CTA The Common Travel Area and the special status of Irish nationals in UK law - Commons Library briefing - UK Parliament

That looks to me like a briefing report for MPs. Not a government report as such. The summary also quotes Professor Ryan who I quoted in above post.

 

[mauvais]

It's the movement of goods and services they are struggling with, the movement of people isn't an issue. There is no reason to change the CTA.

The question is for how long, and what are the practicalities. CTA has been easy to implement because of the commonalities. If you're an EU citizen in Ireland legally, then currently you can legally stroll into the UK, no problem. Will that remain the case long term? If not, then the very fact there is misalignment and the need to handle it will put the CTA under threat. There's no such thing as a process that's invisible to British/Irish citizens and successfully filters everyone else.

This problem is a product of Ireland's EU membership and so didn't exist at the outset of the CTA. UK/Eire membership of the EU was simultaneous so there has never been this difference.

 

[teuchter]

Surely the easiest solution to all this is to persuade RoI to leave the EU too.

 

[kabbes]

Surely the easiest solution to all this is to persuade RoI to leave the EU too.

That's not as easy as handing NI to the RoI.

 

[SpookyFrank]

That's not as easy as handing NI to the RoI.

The hard part would be getting the ROI to accept it. Mostly likely they'd hide behind the sofa and pretend to be out when the courier showed up.

 

[kabbes]

The hard part would be getting the ROI to accept it. Mostly likely they'd hide behind the sofa and pretend to be out when the courier showed up.

Just so long as we have proof of postage, we should be fine. We'll raise a ticket with EUbay and show them that we no longer have the item in our hands.

 

[bemused]

The question is for how long, and what are the practicalities. CTA has been easy to implement because of the commonalities. If you're an EU citizen in Ireland legally, then currently you can legally stroll into the UK, no problem. Will that remain the case long term? If not, then the very fact there is misalignment and the need to handle it will put the CTA under threat. There's no such thing as a process that's invisible to British/Irish citizens and successfully filters everyone else.

This problem is a product of Ireland's EU membership and so didn't exist at the outset of the CTA. UK/Eire membership of the EU was simultaneous so there has never been this difference.

If at some point thousands of non-Irish citizens start using the land border as a way of illegally entering the UK it may be an issue. I'm not sure once we're outside the EU that illegal migration of EU citizens into the UK is going to be an issue anyway, there are plenty of other places those people can go to work with legal protections within the EU.

At the moment I've not seen anyone in government suggest immigration checks at the border.

The issue still seems to be the movement of things, not people. It's dressed up as supporting the GTA when in fact it is a fudge until they sort out trade talks, I'm sure it'll come up again if some sort of tariff system is put in place; unless the Republic get a dispensation. Frankly, it is the EUs problem to fix, the UK and Irish governments want to maintain a long-established arrangement, if the EU doesn't like it they should suggest solutions.

 

[teuchter]

Just so long as we have proof of postage, we should be fine. We'll raise a ticket with EUbay and show them that we no longer have the item in our hands.

There will be a finite number of attempted deliveries before the item is simply returned to us, although we could put a fake return address on it I suppose.

 

[mauvais]

If at some point thousands of non-Irish citizens start using the land border as a way of illegally entering the UK it may be an issue. I'm not sure once we're outside the EU that illegal migration of EU citizens into the UK is going to be an issue anyway, there are plenty of other places those people can go to work with legal protections within the EU.

Yes, but you are thinking about this like a rational pragmatist, not the bonkers Brexiteer brigade actually in charge.

 

[teuchter]

Frankly, it is the EUs problem to fix, the UK and Irish governments want to maintain a long-established arrangement, if the EU doesn't like it they should suggest solutions.

Ireland is still going to be part of the EU. It's not like Ireland and the EU are separate entities.

 

[MightyTibberton]

if you're on Shitter and you enjoy that sort of thing I can recommend having a look at Daniel Hannan or Douglas Carswell's accounts. They're filled with Daniel and Douglas making technocrat-sounding statements about how the press/pundit class/the EU itself doesn't have the first idea about how all this beautiful free trade is going to work once Her Majesty's finest tea clippers are free to roam the globe selling our artificial intelligence flying cars and then being corrected 17,000 times on all the detail they've got wrong. I like it, but it might not be your thing.