IPCC report 2021; analysis, discussion, and are we fucked?

[platinumsage]

It almost certainly needs a new thread, but thinking about strategy for all this. Three strands going on in my head...

2) Are there things that have a high carbon output that can be changed or got rid of without massive and disruptive impacts for the majority of people? And not telling people to eat less meat or drive less ffs. Structural stuff.

I would have thought this obvious. Something like restricting air travel will have a significant impact on people’s lives, making foreign trips the preserve of the wealthy once again.

However no one notices how their electricity is produced. Five more Hinckley Cs coupled with the existing growth of renewables would be enough to eliminate fossil fuel burning from UK electricity generation, taking its share from around 50% to zero.

Green campaigners should be kicking themselves that they campaigned against nuclear for so long.

Where is our plan to stop burning gas to make electricity?

 

[Flavour]

2) Are there things that have a high carbon output that can be changed or got rid of without massive and disruptive impacts for the majority of people? And not telling people to eat less meat or drive less ffs. Structural stuff.

Ban all domestic flights except to NI and small ones for Scottish islands. France has done something similar recently.

 

[danny la rouge]

I agree this can't come down to hectoring people not to eat meat or not to drive - the structural stuff is putting place alternatives, subsidising them,

Yup. Otherwise we’re back to calling people “stupid humans” for wrapping plastic round bananas and producing too much household waste. WE DIDN’T WRAP THE FUCKING BANANAS.

 

[lazythursday]

I would have thought this obvious. Something like restricting air travel will have a significant impact on people’s lives, making foreign trips the preserve of the wealthy once again.

However no one notices how their electricity is produced. Five more Hinckley Cs coupled with the existing growth of renewables would be enough to eliminate fossil fuel burning from UK electricity generation, taking its share from around 50% to zero.

Green campaigners should be kicking themselves that they campaigned against nuclear for so long.

Where is our plan to stop burning gas to make electricity?

I think this is the wrong place to focus actually. Energy generation accounts for about 20% of current emissions - and that has already fallen a lot. It's the sector where most has been achieved, where there appears to be the greatest momentum. It's the UK's success story, to some extent (though some elements such as Drax are controversial / questionable).

It is heavy industry, residential properties and transport that are the biggest problems.

 

[ska invita]

One of the things that's shocking about much of the media is the lack of time they have (give themselves) to cover things, and that makes a massive difference to how they cover stuff, there's just not time to go into any details really at all, it's all very surface level. That and being hampered by the ideological blinkers where some ideas are not so much off-limits as just not in their vision at all.

the "news cycle" is inane. politicians love it - means whatever it is will blow over in a couple of days

 

[platinumsage]

Ban all domestic flights except to NI and small ones for Scottish islands. France has done something similar recently.

Domestic flights account for 0.04% of UK annual CO2. It’s a distraction.

 

[Flavour]

Domestic flights account for 0.04% of UK annual CO2. It’s a distraction.

Source? seems low. would be a thing to do anyway to send a message. make people take this seriously.

i'd also massively subsidise solar and wind. unfortunately much of uk too consistently cloudy for solar to be as impactful as it would be further south

 

[platinumsage]

I think this is the wrong place to focus actually. Energy generation accounts for about 20% of current emissions - and that has already fallen a lot. It's the sector where most has been achieved, where there appears to be the greatest momentum. It's the UK's success story, to some extent (though some elements such as Drax are controversial / questionable).

It is heavy industry, residential properties and transport that are the biggest problems.

But it’s incredibly easy to reduce it to zero using existing tech and without impacting people’s lives (such impacts typically falling on the poorest).

Applying external insulation to all the pre-war housing and eliminating gas boilers within fifteen years is something we should tackle but which will be a hell of bigger challenge than stopping burning fossil fuels for electricity generation.

 

[platinumsage]

Source? seems low. would be a thing to do anyway to send a message. make people take this seriously.

Back of envelope quickie google from 4416 tonnes a week ( www.leasefetcher.co.uk/blog/domestic-flights-london-co2-emissions) and 468 million tonnes a year (UK: total CO2 emissions 1990-2019 | Statista)

 

[lazythursday]

Domestic flights account for 0.04% of UK annual CO2. It’s a distraction.

This is absoltuely not the correct figure - but yes it's not a huge percentage. The problem is that it is one of the fastest growing percentages. As we cut carbon in other areas, aviation is steadily growing to become more and more of a problem. It isn't the worst element, but it is not sustainable. Remember we have to get to ZERO. As quickly as possible. When we get to net zero we will still be able to burn a small amount of carbon - but that can't just be used for aeroplanes.

 

[lazythursday]

Back of envelope quickie google from 4416 tonnes a week ( www.leasefetcher.co.uk/blog/domestic-flights-london-co2-emissions) and 468 million tonnes a year (UK: total CO2 emissions 1990-2019 | Statista)

Well you're making rather a big error in only including domestic flights in your calculation.

edit - sorry, I see that was the point you were trying to make.

 

[lazythursday]

But it’s incredibly easy to reduce it to zero using existing tech and without impacting people’s lives (such impacts typically falling on the poorest).

Applying external insulation to all the pre-war housing and eliminating gas boilers within fifteen years is something we should tackle but which will be a hell of bigger challenge than stopping burning fossil fuels for electricity generation.

My point is that the energy generation sector is transforming at some speed. Perhaps not quick enough but it is the one sector which seems to be keeping pace with targets. The rest are not so that is where focus really needs to be.

 

[platinumsage]

My point is that the energy generation sector is transforming at some speed. Perhaps not quick enough but it is the one sector which seems to be keeping pace with targets. The rest are not so that is where focus really needs to be.

It's not though - we're building more wind but we're also building more gas turbines. We won't eliminate fossil fuels in the required timescale unless we build more nuclear already. We know exactly what to do, and how to do it, but we don't even have a plan. This really is low-hanging fruit to eliminate a huge share of CO2 compared to anything else.

 

[lazythursday]

It's not though - we're building more wind but we're also building more gas turbines. We won't eliminate fossil fuels in the required timescale unless we build more nuclear already. We know exactly what to do, and how to do it, but we don't even have a plan. This really is low-hanging fruit to eliminate a huge share of CO2 compared to anything else.

Well there are plans - Ofgem has one, I'm sure the CCC has proposals, whether they are effective and adopted quickly enough is another matter. But the fact remains that on energy generation there has been significant progress.

It's not a huge share compared to anything else. It's smaller than transport. My point is, we can't spent the next ten years just focusing on electricity generation because it's easier and doesn't impact on ordinary people. The rest still needs doing and can't be put off. If we were to meet our carbon budget under 1.5 degrees (yes I know, no chance) then action has to be taken simultaneously across every sector.

 

[platinumsage]

Well there are plans - Ofgem has one, I'm sure the CCC has proposals, whether they are effective and adopted quickly enough is another matter. But the fact remains that on energy generation there has been significant progress.

It's not a huge share compared to anything else. It's smaller than transport. My point is, we can't spent the next ten years just focusing on electricity generation because it's easier and doesn't impact on ordinary people. The rest still needs doing and can't be put off. If we were to meet our carbon budget under 1.5 degrees (yes I know, no chance) then action has to be taken simultaneously across every sector.

Remember that generation needs to stop burning fossil fuels in order to transition private and commercial transport to clean electricity too. So it's a huge share when that is also taken into account.

If we can't do this easy thing involving mature technology that won't affect people's lives, how can we possibly hope to tackle stuff like home heating?

CCC talk about maintaining nuclear at 20% and then "Gas With Carbon Capture and Storage" - it's like there's no urgency.

 

[bimble]

This is good. If someone like Johnson implements any of the necessary policies it will likely be because he sees things like this.

 

[lazythursday]

Remember that generation needs to stop burning fossil fuels in order to transition private and commercial transport to clean electricity too. So it's a huge share when that is also taken into account.

If we can't do this easy thing involving mature technology that won't affect people's lives, how can we possibly hope to tackle stuff like home heating?

CCC talk about maintaining nuclear at 20% and then "Gas With Carbon Capture and Storage" - it's like there's no urgency.

Look - I agree with you (though sceptical that nuclear has to be part of the mix - I've had presentations from people who are much bigger experts on this than me who maintain it isn't essential). Of course dealing with energy generation is vital. I just don't think it is where the sole focus should be of activism (other than stopping new fossil fuel infrastructure) and I think it is strategically wrong to focus on this and put off the difficult shit. As I said, a lot of progress has been made in this sector. Very little in the biggest sector (transport) where most gains do date relate to greater efficiency of fossil fuel rather than actual decarbonisation.

 

[Flavour]

You know what, fuck it, let's go mental with policies to punish the rich.

Increase road tax by 500% for SUVs.

Introduce progressive motorway tolls. Small cars with at least 2 occupants pay the least, big cars with a single occupant pay the most. Fag packet figures: London to Manchester for a Renault Clio with 3 people in it: £10. Figure for a Porsche Cayenne with 1 person: £750.

 

[Flavour]

Electricity bills to be made progressive too, in line with income and house size. End result should be significantly lower bills for poorer families living in small homes, and arse-clenchingly massive increases for rich cunts with big homes.

 

[lazythursday]

I'd like to see some kind of tax relief / rebate (perhaps on council tax?) for individuals or households without cars.

Some kind of 'warm clean home guarantee' - programme of insulation and new heating with a sliding scale of costs (or free) according to your ability to pay, with the cost to the average household being a similar price to buying and installing a new gas boiler.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

We need iron fist Marxism-Lentilism as soon as possible.

 

[lazythursday]

platinumsage You might be interested in this, just out today - the National Grid's Future Energy Scenarios.

News article about it - Clean power by 2035 to meet climate targets says National Grid - Ember

Main document - https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/202851/download

Basically outlines four different scenarios, one of which is a failure and the other three get to pretty much clean energy by 2035. It's covering the whole energy system, not just electricity generation, but if you look at the nice sankey diagrams on page 142-145 you see that gas no longer plays a significant role in electricity generation in the three successful scenarios. Of course this isn't a plan as such, more of a long range forecast, but these are the futures envisaged by the people running the system right now.

 

[Pickman's model]

You know what, fuck it, let's go mental with policies to punish the rich.

Increase road tax by 500% for SUVs.

Introduce progressive motorway tolls. Small cars with at least 2 occupants pay the least, big cars with a single occupant pay the most. Fag packet figures: London to Manchester for a Renault Clio with 3 people in it: £10. Figure for a Porsche Cayenne with 1 person: £750.

Liberal

 

[platinumsage]

platinumsage You might be interested in this, just out today - the National Grid's Future Energy Scenarios.

News article about it - Clean power by 2035 to meet climate targets says National Grid - Ember

Main document - https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/202851/download

Basically outlines four different scenarios, one of which is a failure and the other three get to pretty much clean energy by 2035. It's covering the whole energy system, not just electricity generation, but if you look at the nice sankey diagrams on page 142-145 you see that gas no longer plays a significant role in electricity generation in the three successful scenarios. Of course this isn't a plan as such, more of a long range forecast, but these are the futures envisaged by the people running the system right now.

Interesting. I will look into it more, but at first glance it seems that they're relying a huge amount on wind power, with hydrogen to balance demand for when it's not windy. In fact most of their scenarios seems to rely on hydrogen doing lots of things in various places that it hasn't yet done for any country's energy systems.

 

[lazythursday]

Interesting. I will look into it more, but at first glance it seems that they're relying a huge amount on wind power, with hydrogen to balance demand for when it's not windy. In fact most of their scenarios seems to rely on hydrogen doing lots of things in various places that it hasn't yet done for any country's energy systems.

Yes - I'm highly sceptical myself of many of the claims for hydrogen, particularly in home heating, where is is being lobbied for hard by the gas industry to maintain their business rather than necessarily being the best or most efficient solution and until hydrogen from gas with CCS is actually a proven technology it seems utterly daft to bet on it. Hydrogen from electrolysis for industry etc is a different matter.

But I think it's very interesting and positive that the National Grid can see realistic ways of getting to pretty much clean energy by 2035.

 

[Flavour]

European temperature record apparently broken today in Syracuse, Sicily: 48.8 degrees

 

[glitch hiker]

So XR are planning another round of pissing off the working class by camping in the road. This time, they say, indefinitely.

They've learnt nothing

Or is it learned?

 

[lazythursday]

So XR are planning another round of pissing off the working class by camping in the road. This time, they say, indefinitely.

They've learnt nothing

Or is it learned?

Well we don't know what the protests are, do we? I thought most of it was focused on the City of London, so not necessarily 'pissing off the working class' as such.

I've not been happy with a lot of what XR have done but I'm at a bit of a loss for what the alternative is. They are the only show on the road right now. Hopefully they have learned from some of the criticism.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

So XR are planning another round of pissing off the working class by camping in the road. This time, they say, indefinitely.

They've learnt nothing

Or is it learned?

Genuine question. What kind of extra parliamentary action can we take on climate change which a) has some actual impact, b) won't be crushed by the state, and c) won't piss off (some of) the working class?

 

[LDC]

I do think XR need to have a good re-think about their strategy and tactics though or risk becoming irrelevant, or even a hindrance, to climate politics. Much of what they have done so far is raise awareness (even if it has has other goals as well) which has worked pretty well. But is there a need to just shout about climate stuff and how bad it'll be now? Just reading the poorly titled How to Blow Up a Pipeline by Andreas Malm that was recommended to me, and the book talks about how passivity, politeness, and stupid dressing up will not work, and much more is needed.