IPCC report 2021; analysis, discussion, and are we fucked?

[LDC]

Yeah, I wanted to say something more nuanced about technology as I agree much of it, having been developed for the needs of capital, is problematic, if not in its use then in the way it is produced and/or operates. I guess it's where you situate that, as a root cause divorced from capitalism, or something inherent in technology itself. Its much like people in that way, we're pretty fucked up due to capitalism, but we're not inherently so.

 

[bimble]

Here's what I think is a concrete example of what you mention:

As profits slip, Big Oil looks to plastic for cash flow – DW – 03/26/2020

With fuel demand depressed by coronavirus and a price war threatening to pump out more oil, the fossil fuel industry's traditional revenue streams are on even shakier ground. Climate change will make that worse.

www.dw.com

The petrochemical industry is pushing for more plastic production, to preserve their revenue stream as demand for fossil fuels begins to peak.

Even that contains encouraging news doesn't it. In that they may be desperate to sell as much plastic as possible to shore up their businesses but their claim that they're just responding to demand looks transparently false.
Imperfect but significant, stuff like this: 34 Plastic Bans in Africa | A Reality Check - Greenpeace Africa

 

[Flavour]

You're right lazythursday , and actually I'd say a lot of the classic socialist/communist types are eco-modernists in the sense that they believe in high-tech future at the service of the people. I am pretty skeptical of that. It's sort of a hangover from the firm belief in industry and production of Soviet tradition, a sort of prevailing anti-Green position on much of the classic left which is much based on a class tension (Greens/hippies/environmentalists viewed as middle-class, liberal, fundamentally reactionary and status quo supporters... XR did much to reinforce these stereotypes) as well as being based on wilful ignorance of the scale of the problem and the inadequacy of currently-existing systems to tackle those problems... blind faith that communist revolution would magically solve everything.

 

[NoXion]

I've yet to see a compelling alternative to socialist eco-modernism. It's certainly a better vision than everyone becoming eco-peasants in hair shirts.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Viewing technology as the problem is a similar 'common sense' and attractively simple position in the same but incorrect way that seeing population as the problem is.

Technological systems and individual technologies have almost completely developed under capitalism and to serve its needs, so mostly the problems within them are a result of this being deeply entwined with capitalism and the way that operates and prioritizes certain things over others.

When manipulation doesn't work, they use regulation. Its common for home solar systems to be illegal in some parts of the US. This is due to power generation, coal, and oil interests that have pressed legislators to embed their monopoly in law:

While the precise rules vary from state to state, one explanation is the same: opposition from utilities grown nervous by the rapid encroachment of solar firms on their business.

The business models that have made solar systems financially viable for millions of homeowners in California, New England and elsewhere around the country are largely illegal in Florida, Virginia, South Carolina and some other Southern states. Companies that pioneered the industry, such as SolarCity Corp. and Sunrun Inc., do not even attempt to do business there.

“We get all kinds of inquiries every day” from the South, said Will Craven, spokesman for SolarCity. “People there want to be our customers.”

Florida, in particular, is known as the “sleeping giant” of his industry, Craven said. “It has a ton of sunshine, a ton of rooftops,” he said. “But there is no rooftop solar industry in Florida.”

Rules prevent solar panels in many states with abundant sunlight

Few places in the country are so warm and bright as Mary Wilkerson's property on the beach near St.

www.latimes.com

Those industries have also sponsored opposition groups where I live, trying to make wind energy illegal. They managed to kill a project in my county, telling people that windmills "are too noisy."

New rebellion against wind energy stalls or stops projects

Growing opposition cites noise, health concerns and marred views, but many landowners welcome the revenue.

www.seattletimes.com

Ultimately, I think these barriers will be overcome. Leasing a plot of land for windmills is extremely profitable.

 

[Flavour]

I've yet to see a compelling alternative to socialist eco-modernism. It's certainly a better vision than everyone becoming eco-peasants in hair shirts.

i think there's a middle-ground which is neither techno-utopian nor primitivist, but i couldn't describe it very well. work in progress

 

[NoXion]

So much for the sanctity of private property! How the fuck do they justify banning solar? Do they even bother to give an excuse?

 

[Flavour]

So much for the sanctity of private property! How the fuck do they justify banning solar? Do they even bother to give an excuse?

It is quite amazing really. From the article:

When Washington and Lee University in Lexington, Va., installed solar panels a few years ago, for example, the local utility, Dominion Virginia Power, threatened legal action. The utility said that only it could sell electricity in its service area. The university and the solar firm it worked with had to change their lease arrangement and forfeit valuable tax credits.

So much the beauty of competition in capitalism!

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

So much for the sanctity of private property! How the fuck do they justify banning solar? Do they even bother to give an excuse?

I believe they try to say its an electrical hazard and it gets prohibited under electrical building codes.

 

[NoXion]

I believe they try to say its an electrical hazard and it gets prohibited under electrical building codes.

Despite the fact that there are entire US states (and outside the US, entire countries) who manage to have rooftop solar just fine without having too many places burn down on account of it. In fact solar power seems to be in a kind of golden age at the moment, so shit like this really needs to be fought.

 

[lazythursday]

I've yet to see a compelling alternative to socialist eco-modernism. It's certainly a better vision than everyone becoming eco-peasants in hair shirts.

I think this is a huge misrepresentation of the degrowth position. Though to be fair, I thought very similarly to you until recently.

 

[LDC]

i think there's a middle-ground which is neither techno-utopian nor primitivist, but i couldn't describe it very well. work in progress

Communist steam-punk?

E2A: read this recently after getting it recommended. It's not brilliant, but it's an interesting way of framing some possible futures.

Four Futures: Life After Capitalism review – will robots bring utopia or terror?

Peter Frase’s roaming, thoughtful work of ‘social science fiction’ sketches out a frightening future of rich v poor

www.theguardian.com

 

[NoXion]

I think this is a huge misrepresentation of the degrowth position. Though to be fair, I thought very similarly to you until recently.

There's some nice stuff in it about the importance of care work and moving away from strictly economic measures like GDP, but I'm pretty sure that's not exclusive to the degrowth position.

 

[Cloo]

Thing is, I don't see any way out of total emergency now, except rowing back from globalisation and economic growth. But then it feels like the environment would still be fucked, with a side order of us also having more miserable, constrained lives as well. With particular impact on the poorest countries if everyone has to cut down on flights, cars, energy use, export/import etc.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

I think this is a huge misrepresentation of the degrowth position. Though to be fair, I thought very similarly to you until recently.

I recently read this book by Kate Soper and found it very compelling. It argues that a post-growth economy could be a form of 'alternative hedonism' based on less work, less consumption, more leisure time, more green spaces etc.

Post-Growth Living

The reality of runaway climate change is inextricably linked with the mass consumerist, capitalist society in which we live. And the cult of endless growth, and endless consumption of cheap disposable commodities isn't only destroying the world, it is damaging ourselves and our way of being. How...

www.versobooks.com

 

[danny la rouge]

i think there's a middle-ground which is neither techno-utopian nor primitivist, but i couldn't describe it very well. work in progress

Post-scarcity anarchism. And I’m perfectly serious.

The point made by LynnDoyleCooper about technology currently being created in capitalism’s image is a good one. That’s why real change needs societal change. We need to stop the assumption that the only way to do things is growth and GDP and all that. We need to recalibrate what we mean by Plenty. We can have actual plenty. Just not capitalism’s version of it.

 

[smmudge]

When manipulation doesn't work, they use regulation. Its common for home solar systems to be illegal in some parts of the US. This is due to power generation, coal, and oil interests that have pressed legislators to embed their monopoly in law:

Rules prevent solar panels in many states with abundant sunlight

Few places in the country are so warm and bright as Mary Wilkerson's property on the beach near St.

www.latimes.com

Those industries have also sponsored opposition groups where I live, trying to make wind energy illegal. They managed to kill a project in my county, telling people that windmills "are too noisy."

New rebellion against wind energy stalls or stops projects

Growing opposition cites noise, health concerns and marred views, but many landowners welcome the revenue.

www.seattletimes.com

Ultimately, I think these barriers will be overcome. Leasing a plot of land for windmills is extremely profitable.

You would think renewable energy would be a capitalist's dream! Making money when the wind blows and when the sun shines! What more could you ask for?

 

[danny la rouge]

You would think renewable energy would be a capitalist's dream! Making money when the wind blows and when the sun shines! What more could you ask for?

To quote Betty Davis, “we have the stars. Why ask for the moon?”

 

[smmudge]

Thing is, I don't see any way out of total emergency now, except rowing back from globalisation and economic growth. But then it feels like the environment would still be fucked, with a side order of us also having more miserable, constrained lives as well. With particular impact on the poorest countries if everyone has to cut down on flights, cars, energy use, export/import etc.

I feel like that's the inherent myth of capitalism though: "life would be miserable without endless consumption." I think that's one of the problems that we're essentially told this every day, though not explicitly (in case we question it).

 

[Pickman's model]

Thing is, I don't see any way out of total emergency now, except rowing back from globalisation and economic growth. But then it feels like the environment would still be fucked, with a side order of us also having more miserable, constrained lives as well. With particular impact on the poorest countries if everyone has to cut down on flights, cars, energy use, export/import etc.

i think you'll find there's already a particular impact on the poorest countries

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[danny la rouge]

* I’d change that to “people”. But the point stands. It’s not “human actions” or “human nature” that are in some vague way to blame. It is caused by specific investments by specific people in specific things. And governments refusing to act. For 50 years.

 

[andysays]

You would think renewable energy would be a capitalist's dream! Making money when the wind blows and when the sun shines! What more could you ask for?

But once you've bought the equipment you need, there is little or no opportunity for the capitalist to make a profit out of selling you anything, that's why domestic and small scale renewable energy has to be discouraged.

 

[NoXion]

But once you've bought the equipment you need, there is little or no opportunity for the capitalist to make a profit out of selling you anything, that's why domestic and small scale renewable energy has to be discouraged.

Well that's not really true. There's plenty of money to be made in servicing, repairs and upgrades. Shit breaks and technology marches on. And it's not like the companies selling the home renewable systems in the first place are charities. They're in it for money too.

 

[andysays]

Well that's not really true. There's plenty of money to be made in servicing, repairs and upgrades. Shit breaks and technology marches on. And it's not like the companies selling the home renewable systems in the first place are charities. They're in it for money too.

Not literally true, but significantly less money, and made by other people than the current fossil fuel peddlers, who are doing their best to block it.

 

[lazythursday]

Some similar reasons why the market has not rushed to install charging points. Electricity is too cheap to create a nice stream of profit to justify the initial investment. These sorts of things are why much of the transition just has to be state led.

 

[NoXion]

Not literally true, but significantly less money, and made by other people than the current fossil fuel peddlers, who are doing their best to block it.

I think the fossil fuels industry doing their best to strangle a nascent renewable energy industry in its crib is the main thing. If nearly every roof in the world had solar panels on it (never mind other forms of renewable energy), then that would represent a truly enormous sector dedicated to their upkeep.

 

[bimble]

Just read this from an interview with Greta Thunberg.

"“This is some kind of misconception about activists, especially about climate activists, that we are just negative and pessimists and trying to spread fear but that’s the exact opposite,” she said, “we are doing this because we are hopeful, we are hopeful that we will be able to make the changes necessary.”

Helpful, again clarifies that maybe the more you actually understand the problem and the solutions the less likely you are to be a useless despairer.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

You would think renewable energy would be a capitalist's dream! Making money when the wind blows and when the sun shines! What more could you ask for?

I think they're moving that direction, but they want to maximize their current investments in coal and oil. Smaller businesses have moved that direction before them, so regulation is there to stall the competition until they catch up with the technology.

 

[planetgeli]

Just read this from an interview with Greta Thunberg.

"“This is some kind of misconception about activists, especially about climate activists, that we are just negative and pessimists and trying to spread fear but that’s the exact opposite,” she said, “we are doing this because we are hopeful, we are hopeful that we will be able to make the changes necessary.”

Helpful, again clarifies that maybe the more you actually understand the problem and the solutions the less likely you are to be a useless despairer.

Mmm, I think age has something to do with it. I've been on just about the wrong side of everything all my life and you do get so cynical and...despair. I don't think that makes me useless mind. And humour helps. And it's still better to live aware and in (a bit of) despair than it is to close your eyes.

And you've probably got 20 years on me anyway so feel free to ignore that.