IPCC report 2021; analysis, discussion, and are we fucked?

[danny la rouge]

This is a useful summary (still big) of the report.

In-depth Q&A: The IPCC’s sixth assessment report on climate science - Carbon Brief

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published the first part of its sixth assessment report (AR6), which will form the cornerstone of climate science for the years ahead.

www.carbonbrief.org

 

[bimble]

I feel like maybe this Summer might turn out to have been an important time, in that everybody has seen the reality of it, not far away in a poor country but raging floods & fires, making the news for months, in California & in Europe. Bloody Siberia was luridly on fire ffs.
And as a result perhaps not only will nobody make climate change jokes any more but, maybe, the point has been passed now when doing nothing was acceptable, or even felt acceptable inside people's heads.

 

[ChrisD]

I surround myself with other like-minded green/left wing people who all agree that regulation and change of likestyle is necessary....but then at lunchtime I looked at the responses to John Redwood's Twitter feed and realised that there is no consensus for action.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yup. We’re not going to capitalism our way out of this.

Yeh but the only way this starts getting sorted has to be under capitalism as we're not going to get another mode of production in the next ten years. Don't think the work can be finished under capitalism, that the changes necessary could tend towards another mode of production, but if we hang about waiting till the stars are right we're definitely toast

 

[lazythursday]

I surround myself with other like-minded green/left wing people who all agree that regulation and change of likestyle is necessary....but then at lunchtime I looked at the responses to John Redwood's Twitter feed and realised that there is no consensus for action.

But there is never total consensus for anything. Generally I think polling shows there are far more people wanting to take action than not. But that's when it's abstract, rather than specific policies.

I think the truth is there is still an enormous amount of ignorance about climate change and carbon emissions, but perhaps this is starting to change now. I wish more people understood that this is a cumulative problem, like filling a bathtub, that it's not enough just to reduce the flow from the taps slightly. At some point you have to shut the taps off, the sooner the better.

 

[ChrisD]

I assumed that all reasonable people would agree that some action is required but Redwood followers seem a bit resistant to any change. I've never really come across climate deniers or whatever they're called before. So depressing.

 

[Orang Utan]

Overpopulation is one of the causes of our environmental problems. That does not mean that any of the blame lies at the door of individuals. You can lay some of the blame at the door of institutionalised religions and governments which insist on the unending reproductive functions of the female half of the population. And also at the door of political elites and systems which insist upon inequality . What you can't do is pretend that the explosive growth of one particular species will not have a detrimental impact on most other species in the world, with all the attendant ecological consequences. Not if you want to be taken seriously. That is not a call for the culling of human beings. Just a realistic appraisal of the situation. The culling of humanity will, probably, occur in the next few decades, with rising sea levels, floods, fires, droughts, crop failures, disease and resource wars.

no, it’s not overpopulation, it’s unequal wealth and resources that are the problem

 

[bimble]

The moment my despair set in was sometime twenty+ years ago sat in a then "3rd world" country, thinking how the hell are these people going to be told that sorry you were too slow you can't have cars and fridges and air conditioning.

 

[LDC]

I assumed that all reasonable people would agree that some action is required but Redwood followers seem a bit resistant to any change. I've never really come across climate deniers or whatever they're called before. So depressing.

I think there's certainly going to be a wing of the Tory party (the ERG, the CRG, and they'll probably re-brand to the Climate RG or something) that'll be against any changes to mitigate climate change. Whether they have any power depends on a load of other factors. It will be very similar to the pandemic in many ways.

 

[lazythursday]

The moment my despair set in was sometime twenty+ years ago sat in a then "3rd world" country, thinking how the hell are these people going to be told that sorry you were too slow you can't have cars and fridges and air conditioning.

That's making an assumption that the western consumerist model of development is the only one worth having. There is a lot of interesting academic work on what development that prioritises human wellbeing rather than economic growth might look like. I don't see that there's any reason why developing countries can't have a functioning sustainable electricity system and many of the basic necessities for life that we take for granted in a post-carbon world.

 

[bimble]

That's making an assumption that the western consumerist model of development is the only one worth having. There is a lot of interesting academic work on what development that prioritises human wellbeing rather than economic growth might look like. I don't see that there's any reason why developing countries can't have a functioning sustainable electricity system and many of the basic necessities for life that we take for granted in a post-carbon world.

Not my assumption, but look at the celebrated burgeoning middle class of India (& china and elsewhere), over last few years. That is defined pretty much as 'has a car and a fridge'.
Will PM Modi etc be telling their electorate that they need to prioritise human wellbeing and not having more stuff?
I am sorry. Do not want to be so negative. Your post before was great & it really helped.

 

[danny la rouge]

Yeh but the only way this starts getting sorted has to be under capitalism as we're not going to get another mode of production in the next ten years. Don't think the work can be finished under capitalism, that the changes necessary could tend towards another mode of production, but if we hang about waiting till the stars are right we're definitely toast

Agreed.

What we need to do though is kick back at suggestions that “industry needs to be at the table”, for example. We have known - in general - the gist of today’s report for more than 50 years: we had all the scientific evidence we needed to act on global warming for decades, but the fossil fuel industry spent millions to spread disinformation and block climate action. Global warming isn’t a tragedy, it’s a crime.

Eg. BP deliberately kicked the ball into the long grass with “carbon footprints”.

The anger we feel needs to erupt into societal common sense that the blame lies with these few big actors.

 

[lazythursday]

Not my assumption, but look at the celebrated burgeoning middle class of India (& china and elsewhere), over recent years. That is defined pretty much as 'has a car and a fridge'.

Well it is a built in part of all the international frameworks that developing countries get a bit more time / fairer share of the remaining carbon budget (you could argue that given historical emissions this isn't fair enough) - which is why cutting fossil fuel use in developed countries is so urgent - we have to do our share ASAP, regardless of the fact that carbon emissions may be increasing rather than decreasing in India.

 

[Pickman's model]

Agreed.

What we need to do though is kick back at suggestions that “industry needs to be at the table”, for example. We have known - in general - the gist of today’s report for more than 50 years: we had all the scientific evidence we needed to act on global warming for decades, but the fossil fuel industry spent millions to spread disinformation and block climate action. Global warming isn’t a tragedy, it’s a crime.

Eg. BP deliberately kicked the ball into the long grass with “carbon footprints”.

The anger we feel needs to erupt into societal common sense that the blame lies with these few big actors.

They need to be at the table as a precursor to being on the scaffold

 

[danny la rouge]

They need to be at the table as a precursor to being on the scaffold

They need to be sidelined and vilified.

 

[bimble]

Well it is a built in part of all the international frameworks that developing countries get a bit more time / fairer share of the remaining carbon budget (you could argue that given historical emissions this isn't fair enough) - which is why cutting fossil fuel use in developed countries is so urgent - we have to do our share ASAP, regardless of the fact that carbon emissions may be increasing rather than decreasing in India.

This is the stuff that makes me feel like we are fucked.
And I don't remotely blame them for doing it.

India to build 100 new airports by 2024 to boost air connectivity

India’s Union Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitharaman has announced that 100 additional airports will be developed in the country by 2024.

www.airport-technology.com

China's civil aviation capacity to rise by 43% to 2 billion passenger trips within 5 years - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

 

[Pickman's model]

They need to be sidelined and vilified.

Quite so.

 

[weltweit]

I wish more people understood that this is a cumulative problem, like filling a bathtub, that it's not enough just to reduce the flow from the taps slightly. At some point you have to shut the taps off, the sooner the better.

But in a bathtub there is not only turning the taps off but also pulling the plug. Is there something like a plug in this situation we find ourselves in?

 

[LDC]

But in a bathtub there is not only turning the taps off but also pulling the plug. Is there something like a plug in this situation we find ourselves in?

Carbon capture and storage, but it's not that great as a solution in my (very) little understanding of it. Massive global reforestation projects on a huge re-shaping the ecology of the earth scale as well.

 

[lazythursday]

This is the stuff that makes me feel like we are fucked.
And I don't remotely blame them for doing it.

India to build 100 new airports by 2024 to boost air connectivity

India’s Union Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitharaman has announced that 100 additional airports will be developed in the country by 2024.

www.airport-technology.com

China's civil aviation capacity to rise by 43% to 2 billion passenger trips within 5 years - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

And China is also now making commitments on net zero by 2060 and doing a hell of a lot in the race to develop green technologies. Every country is still facing two ways on this issue, the reality of the situation hasn't yet shifted business-as-usual. I think ultimately that will happen because the costs to India (for instance) of a three degree rise in temperature are incalculable. Suspect a lot of infrastructure currently being built for a fossil fuel era will end up barely used or heavily repurposed.

 

[lazythursday]

Carbon capture and storage, but it's not that great as a solution in my (very) little understanding of it. Massive global reforestation projects on a huge re-shaping the ecology of the earth scale as well.

I suppose to take the analogy further - there is already a plug hole in the bath, which is the planet's ability to absorb carbon via forests and seas etc. It's not big enough to cope with the amount of carbon pouring in. We can expand it a bit (and all the scenarios to reach net zero involve doing this) - by planting trees, restoring peat, and maybe though new carbon cature technologies - but the idea we can ever create a plughole big enough to cope with continued large scale fossil fuel burning is a pipe dream. Making the plughole bigger would allow some very limited continued burning of fossil fuels in really hard-to-decarbonise sectors.

 

[NoXion]

I don't think humans are in any way inherently bad, 'human nature' is not the problem.
So what form does your hope take?
Todays report says drastic immediate action to reduce emissions is needed now, not in ten years, to avert catastrophic & irreversible climate change. If you feel that this is a possibility how do you think it might happen? (i am absolutely not trying to argue with you or your hope just asking how you do it).

Even if the worst case scenarios come to pass, I just don't see how giving in to despair helps anyone, least of all myself. But I also take the view that's never too late until humans are effectively extinct. We should have been have been replacing our coal plants with nuclear fission fifty years ago, but it's still worth it to start building them today. The proportion of carbon emissions generated by electricity generation alone can offer solutions that are attractive to everyone except fossil fuel companies, whose immense power can be broken, and will be sooner or later. Sooner is better, of course. But I believe it can be done.

 

[bimble]

Even if the worst case scenarios come to pass, I just don't see how giving in to despair helps anyone, least of all myself.

It helps absolutely nobody i agree, 'oh well we are all doomed what can i do about it', as a thought / attitude is a big part of the problem. I really want to get rid of it but so far can't.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

A bigger problem than population or methane is the kind of useless abject despair that someone like me feels when reading this stuff, todays report.
I'm not even that old or that much of an arsehole but the feeling that we are totally and utterly fucked, there is no hope of averting catastrophe and i'm just glad i don't have kids' means i might pathetically recycle my rubbish but i'm not going to be part of any solution because basically i've given up.
Don't know what to do about it, the shitty useless despair. Its too late to just leave it to the next generation to sort out.

feel like this often

.. Eventually we will see fossil fuel executives on trial, I firmly believe that.

you are an optimist

The moment my despair set in was sometime twenty+ years ago sat in a then "3rd world" country, thinking how the hell are these people going to be told that sorry you were too slow you can't have cars and fridges and air conditioning.

Mine was about that time when "the new coca cola plastic bottle you don't need to take your glass bottle back" was introduced to Ecuador" mountains of plastic bottles in the mountains" was my thought
to balance this:
because the cost of a bottle deposit was 150% of the cost of the drink inside it, you could get your drink in a plastic sachet to take away and happily discard
so they were already fucked
:/

still thinking it could be done, just on a downswing right now.

 

[NoXion]

It helps absolutely nobody i agree, 'oh well we are all doomed what can i do about it', as a thought / attitude is a big part of the problem. I really want to get rid of it but so far can't.

I don't know what would work best for you personally, whether taking a mental step back might help, or if you're the kind of person who can lean into feelings like that, directing nervous energy towards something that's somewhat tangible on some level. Whatever the case may be, I can hazard a guess that letting it stew doesn't help very many people at all. The current state of the world is one of the reasons that I'm glad to have knocked on the head the habit of doomscrolling through social media. I still keep an eye on current events, but I'm no longer mainlining an endless rolling news cycle on platforms that are deliberately designed to facilitate engagement over anything else.

Your experience may be different, of course.

 

[bimble]

Again, I don’t think this is a me thing or a mental hygiene thing, just about do you think it possible that within ten years from today global emissions will be radically reduced or not.

 

[bimble]

.

 

[stdP]

Owing much of it to my geology-heavy upbringing, I was worried we were fucked by the time I was 16 (my love of DNA and H2G2 led me to Last Chance to See) and by the time I'd finished my geology degree (which as you might expect covered a great deal of climatology and fossil fuels) I was certain of it; I think the term the Holocene Extinction Event was actually coined during my time at uni. In a way we'd already been fucked since well before I was born, and this was the major factor in me deciding from a very early age that I never wanted kids.

It's not a very comfortable thought to live with, and the true scale of even something as tiny as a single decade of weather isn't something most people can easily comprehend, so when confronted with all of this, denial is often the depressingly likely outcome. Even I'm somewhat in denial about the scale of the problem I suspect, and I certainly hoped I'd be dead before it got too horrifying.

But lockdown in combination with endless news reports on freak weather, and endless time with which to contemplate it in, has cemented the idea of anthropogenic climate change in most people's minds as a probable fact (even by Torygraph-guzzling father who's been ranting about "hippy do-gooders" my entire life has acknowledged there might be a teensy problem). There's a lot more political capital behind greener projects, although I think even if wholly drastic action is taken we're in for a really fucking rough fifty years.

As a related aside, I do believe overpopulation is very much an issue; yes, unequal distribution is one of the key causes of famine, and a billion new people every decade wanting cars, package holidays, fridges and food is certainly a huge logistical strain, but the only way we can actually grow enough food at all is largely down to our current overabundance of petrochemicals. Even if climate change leaves most breadbasket regions viable for farming, if we haven't curbed population by the time the oil starts running out, we'll likely have wars and mass famines not unlike something out of a pulpy Mad Max ripoff.

<goes off to watch one of the first eco-disaster movies The Day the Earth Caught Fire and reminisces about the good old days when the worst thing we had to worry about was nuclear war>

All of the above probably sounds very depressing, and I dare say it is. We won't and most likely can't save everything but that's not an excuse to not at least try saving something.

 

[NoXion]

Again, I don’t think this is a me thing or a mental hygiene thing, just about do you think it possible that within ten years from today global emissions will be radically reduced or not.

I honestly don't know, my crystal ball's all foggy. But looking back where I can actually see, I have noticed that the mood music from the denialists and defenders of the fossil fuel industry has changed over the past decade or so. Flat-out denial is becoming increasingly untenable, and so they have moved on to trying to argue that it won't be so bad, or that taking action will be too expensive. I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out that the fossil fuel industry is actively trying to weaponise the sense of futility and powerlessness engendered climate change-driven weather extreme events and the constant breaking of records. Others have already mentioned their attempt to shift blame with the carbon footprint idea; I expect that kind of tactics to also intensify.

 

[glitch hiker]

I think

Yup. We’re not going to capitalism our way out of this.

I think this should be seized as an opportunity to try and smash this system. We don't really have a choice if we want to survive