IPCC report 2021; analysis, discussion, and are we fucked?

[maomao]

Yeah that coverage annoyed me, just a variation on the personal choice / lifestyle change bollocks.

It is bollocks but lifestyles would need to change in significant and unpopular ways. Look at the reaction of the ct lot to being asked to wear masks for a few months. If they get told they can't drive wherever they like there'll be riots.

 

[LDC]

It is bollocks but lifestyles would need to change in significant and unpopular ways. Look at the reaction of the ct lot to being asked to wear masks for a few months. If they get told they can't drive wherever they like there'll be riots.

I think one of the complicated things about climate is, like you say, some of it is likely to be enacted against the wishes/needs of a certain section of the population. That could be mitigated by support of people that are likely to financially suffer the most. But as we see with the pandemic that's not likely to be given enough of a priority. So we could be torn in different directions in a similar way to the pandemic.

 

[teqniq]

Cross-posting from the climate change thread, this would appear to be the main reason, at least according to this guy, why nothing will be done:

 

[Petcha]

That appears to ignore the huge emphasis in the private sector being put on ESG. No, they don't really give a shit about the environment. They care about their bottom lines. And there are huge profits to be made in sustainable investment.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Travelling to 30 countries in 6 months presumably wasn't done for recreational purposes. I've just watched a plane full of athletes touch down at Heathrow in Tokyo to a hero's welcome. Bizarre.

Not for recreational purposes maybe, but loads of important people get off on being important and one indication of being important is that you fly around the world and meet loads of other important people. That makes you feel even more important. It achieves nothing that couldn't be achieved via smart video conferencing.
What it also does is send the message that flying is not just OK but worthwhile. Necessary. Important.
I agree that we can't and shouldn't load all the blame for climate change onto individuals, but making certain behaviours appear anti-social is not a bad thing, as it could lead to behavioural change. Too much flying is just plane stupid. Flying should not ever be thought of as normal. Evolution could have given us wings if it chose to, but it didn't.

 

[Flavour]

there is zero chance of climate crisis being averted under capitalism.

 

[DotCommunist]

And, of course, there is THE red herring that few want to acknowledge or engage with, let alone act upon,: human breeding and the ever increasing growth of populations all over this planet.

going to be arguing against a lot of this sort of thing in the coming years, both that and the idea that this is a collective sin for which we deserve the hardships to come.Who do you think it serves to point to the 'feckless multitudes' and say 'ah, look, its all them on there less than a dollar a day!'? Its not just untrue, its going to be eagerly picked up by the worst people, already has been tbf. That way lies getting euthanized for your generations eco-crimes and fed to the recyc tanks when you're 60.

 

[platinumsage]

Aviation is a red herring. Air travel brings huge benefits to people and society but accounts for 2% of emissions

Compare that to the generation of electricity and powering of road vehicles by burning fossil fuels, which accounts for over 50% of emissions yet provides no benefits over doing those things using renewable energy.

 

[Petcha]

there is zero chance of climate crisis being averted under capitalism.

Have faith. I think greed could actually be good here. Investors are well-aware of the sea change as to where their dividends are going to come from over the next 20-30 years.

 

[Petcha]

And I'm talking about the most greedy motherfuckers you've ever met openly talking about ESG as the biggest issue on their desks.

 

[Flavour]

Have faith. I think greed could actually be good here. Investors are well-aware of the sea change as to where their dividends are going to come from over the next 20-30 years.

This is absurdly optimistic. The crisis is real and happening now, the overwhelming majority of "investors" are already old and rich and so think "Well I am rich and will be dead soon anyway, and at least my kids and grandkids will be rich too so they should be fine".

 

[Petcha]

This is absurdly optimistic. The crisis is real and happening now, the overwhelming majority of "investors" are already old and rich and so think "Well I am rich and will be dead soon anyway, and at least my kids and grandkids will be rich too so they should be fine".

Lol... really? That's absurdly naive. It's not personalities, it's institutional investors. And guess what? Their analysts, the ones calling the shots are not old. They're rich yes, and they want to be richer.

 

[maomao]

Lol... really? That's absurdly naive. It's not personalities, it's institutional investors. And guess what? Their analysts, the ones calling the shots are not old. They're rich yes, and they want to be richer.

Why do you think that them managing to profit from the crisis will be beneficial to others in some way? You've already pointed out that they're motivated by self interest. This is magic market nonsense.

 

[Flavour]

Please elaborate on how the greed of institutional investors will make a difference to emissions under capitalism, with the stock market and other financial institutions riding the wave for the benefit of the planet and all its inhabitants.

 

[Petcha]

Why do you think that them managing to profit from the crisis will be beneficial to others in some way? You've already pointed out that they're motivated by self interest. This is magic market nonsense.

If you were an institutional investor, a fund manager. Would you be investing in a coal mine right now? Or a solar farm?

 

[maomao]

If you were an institutional investor, a fund manager. Would you be investing in a coal mine right now? Or a solar farm?

Both probably. Has investment in fossil fuel extraction dried up?

 

[Flavour]

Saudi oil giant Aramco sees profits soar by almost 300%

The results were boosted by a rise in oil prices as demand recovers after the pandemic.

www.bbc.com

Also on the BBC front page.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Overpopulation is one of the causes of our environmental problems. That does not mean that any of the blame lies at the door of individuals. You can lay some of the blame at the door of institutionalised religions and governments which insist on the unending reproductive functions of the female half of the population. And also at the door of political elites and systems which insist upon inequality . What you can't do is pretend that the explosive growth of one particular species will not have a detrimental impact on most other species in the world, with all the attendant ecological consequences. Not if you want to be taken seriously. That is not a call for the culling of human beings. Just a realistic appraisal of the situation. The culling of humanity will, probably, occur in the next few decades, with rising sea levels, floods, fires, droughts, crop failures, disease and resource wars.

 

[not-bono-ever]

If capital can see a way of profiting from green direction changes then it will do so, not for any moral reason obviously.

 

[Flavour]

The key to sustainable demography is education for girls and women, which obviously goes hand in hand with poverty (or lack thereof). Birth rates in rich countries have been falling for decades.

 

[platinumsage]

Overpopulation is one of the causes of our environmental problems. That does not mean that any of the blame lies at the door of individuals. You can lay some of the blame at the door of institutionalised religions and governments which insist on the unending reproductive functions of the female half of the population. And also at the door of political elites and systems which insist upon inequality . What you can't do is pretend that the explosive growth of one particular species will not have a detrimental impact on most other species in the world, with all the attendant ecological consequences. Not if you want to be taken seriously. That is not a call for the culling of human beings. Just a realistic appraisal of the situation. The culling of humanity will, probably, occur in the next few decades, with rising sea levels, floods, fires, droughts, crop failures, disease and resource wars.

The annual growth rate of the global population has halved since 1970, and is projected to continue to zero. It's not the tree to be barking up.

 

[LDC]

there is zero chance of climate crisis being averted under capitalism.

I'm not 100% sure of that. For a start the climate crisis is an unfolding disaster rather than a singular event, so I think it might be possible for capital to manage/reduce/stop the worst aspects of the changes, but it'd have to be how it was with the pandemic but on crack; massively interventionist, throwing money and power at the problem. And in doing so it would also likely steamroller over the people it cared the least about.

So possibly there is a State/capital solution, but it is unlikely to be the one we want. Do we have the capacity to build the power to force them to make it the change we want, or at least force their hand so the changes are better than they would be otherwise?

 

[Petcha]

Both probably. Has investment in fossil fuel extraction dried up?

The key word is sustainable. Fossil fuels are very short term.

 

[maomao]

The key word is sustainable. Fossil fuels are very short term.

I know, I'm not a capitalist. Is investment drying up because investors don't want short term profit?

 

[danny la rouge]

Greta Thunberg speaks for us all when she said: "The new IPCC report contains no real surprises. It confirms what we already know from thousands previous studies and reports - that we are in an emergency."

And, depressingly, the BBC's response was to talk of individual consumer's "carbon footprints". This notion is greenwashing invented by BP to pass the buck onto individuals.

The "carbon footprint" strategy is: put as much blame on the consumer as possible, knowing the consumer is not in a good place to control the situation. It basically ensures that nothing changes. Big businesses don't have to change what they do. Governments don't have to act.

It is long past the time for governments and business to act. Baby steps will do no good. Opening new oil fields while pretending that the answer is for individuals to freeze the last two slices of bread in the packet will do no good.

Governments and capitalism need to act decisively, significantly and immediately. Which they won't.

 

[maomao]

Frozen bread does inexplicably make better toast than fresh though. So there's that.

 

[ska invita]

there is zero chance of climate crisis being averted under capitalism.

...and every chance of the crisis being governed with authoritarianism, war and neofascism.

 

[Flavour]

So possibly there is a State/capital solution, but it is unlikely to be the one we want. Do we have the capacity to build the power to force them to make it the change we want, or at least force their hand so the changes are better than they would be otherwise?

Yes, I think we do. But Covid has seriously dented the momentum the Greta/XR climate movement built up through 2019

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

The annual growth rate of the global population has halved since 1970, and is projected to continue to zero. It's not the tree to be barking up.

It's a tree that should be barked up at regularly, and should have been for decades. Global population is currently still growing, thanks to greater longevity. Even a slight decrease, or levelling off of the increase, will make matters just that bit less difficult to deal with.

 

[Flavour]

It's a tree that should be barked up at regularly, and should have been for decades. Global population is currently still growing, thanks to greater longevity. Even a slight decrease, or levelling off of the increase, will make matters just that bit less difficult to deal with.

the countries with highest birth rates also by and large the countries with lowest carbon emissions, so there's that