IPCC report 2021; analysis, discussion, and are we fucked?

[LDC]

I think they need to give up on civil disobedience and go with forceful and militant direct action tbh, the civil disobedience stuff is really holding them back imo, especially since it has brought its own sub-cultural and middle class and semi-religious baggage and been made into the same as being polite and 'nice'.

 

[LDC]

Well they need about fifty times as many people as they've got to pull off a revolution (which won't be an anti-capitalist) one so all they can do is turn up and cause as much disruption as they can and hope it will grow.

That's a problem. Disruption will not grow the movement. It will hold it back.

 

[bimble]

The couple of people I know who got really involved in xr are silly people tbh, sweet and well meaning but daft, I think it’s a bit of a festival thing for them.
But I am so sick of hearing XR are no good, they should not do this, they should not do that.
Want someone to say what I should do. Cos honestly I have no clue. Not going to sit down in a road if I don’t even see the point of the action though.

 

[maomao]

What I'm saying is we'll see what happens in September. If they've got significantly more people on the ground than last time then as far as I'm concerned it means they're doing the right thing. They want a revolution and to an extent that's a numbers game.

 

[bimble]

If there were a million people sitting in the streets in London in September, and protesting at heathrow etc etc then what? The government / BP would think, ok we better do what these people have on their list of demands? maybe that would happen.

I think in a targetted way it could work, like maybe if the sitting happened in Cumbria to make the proposed new coal mine a news item too embarrassing to approve.
But even that is complicated, because jobs. Nothing seems simple tbh.

 

[Pickman's model]

If there were a million people sitting in the streets in London in September, then what? The government / BP would think, oh ok we better do what these people have on their list of demands? maybe that would happen.

If you remember a million or more people in London on 15.2.03 having er no impact on the government's plan to invade iraq then you'll realise how unlikely it is a million people in London next month would be to have an impact on a the government for a larger, more expensive and permanent project, even if delay will end up costing us more

 

[danny la rouge]

If there were a million people sitting in the streets in London in September, and protesting at heathrow etc etc then what? The government / BP would think, ok we better do what these people have on their list of demands? maybe that would happen.
I think in a targetted way it could work, like maybe if the sitting happened in Cumbria to make the proposed new coal mine a news item too embarrassing to approve. But even that is complicated, because jobs. Nothing seems simple tbh.

Why are they sitting in the street in London? That makes the message seem like “individual citizens: stop driving”.

They should be trying to close down Fawley refinery, or Grangemouth refinery. They need to hit Exxon and BP. Not exacerbate congestion zone queues.

 

[maomao]

If there were a million people sitting in the streets in London in September, and protesting at heathrow etc etc then what? The government / BP would think, ok we better do what these people have on their list of demands? maybe that would happen.

I think in a targetted way it could work, like maybe if the sitting happened in Cumbria to make the proposed new coal mine a news item too embarrassing to approve.
But even that is complicated, because jobs. Nothing seems simple tbh.

No. Then they'd have to start occupying buildings and getting into fights but they claim to have researched insurrections and revolutions and appear to be targeting the capital so I'm assuming they've worked that out.

If you remember a million or more people in London on 15.2.03 having er no impact on the government's plan to invade iraq then you'll realise how unlikely it is a million people in London next month would be to have an impact on a the government for a larger, more expensive and permanent project, even if delay will end up costing us more

To be fair all the people on the Iraq demos went home at the end of the day.

 

[bimble]

No. Then they'd have to start occupying buildings and getting into fights but they claim to have researched insurrections and revolutions and appear to be targeting the capital so I'm assuming they've worked that out.

So whats the point of the initial bit if it would take other tactics to effect change?

 

[Artaxerxes]

Why are they sitting in the street in London? That makes the message seem like “individual citizens: stop driving”.

They should be trying to close down Fawley refinery, or Grangemouth refinery. They need to hit Exxon and BP. Not exacerbate congestion zone queues.

Most of the refinery's are a pisser to get to these days but various groups have done sterling work fighting against fracking in local areas.

Sadly they are also fighting HS2 because trains are bad.

 

[danny la rouge]

Most of the refinery's are a pisser to get to these days but various groups have done sterling work fighting against fracking in local areas.

Sure, and XR are in many ways great. They get people out. And you’re right, the anti fracking groups have been great. (Although sadly one in my former neck of the woods went a bit 5G conspiracy. But that’s another thread).

My issue with seeming to have the message “private citizen: don’t drive!” is take just for example where my family are from: Blantyre. It’s an ex-coal mining town with a nearby ex-steel works. All the jobs were in the mine or the steel. Then there were none. Now most people (if they work) work in things like care. So they’re scattered over the central belt. You used to be able to cycle to Ravenscraig or walk to the mine. But if your care home is in East Renfrewshire, if you don’t drive you don’t get there. Trying to do that on public transport would involve overnight stays!

So you need to provide the alternatives. How do people in low wage jobs get to work? If your message just looks like “stop driving”, you may as well be talking Klingon. It doesn’t relate to real lived experience of people.

 

[lazythursday]

Most of the refinery's are a pisser to get to these days but various groups have done sterling work fighting against fracking in local areas.

Sadly they are also fighting HS2 because trains are bad.

I think this is my biggest problem with the sort of people who are often the most enthusiastic about XR - they also tend to bang on about HS2, and Drax, neither of which are anywhere near as bad as the road building programme or gas fired power stations. Priorities all wrong and no understanding of the complexity of decarbonisation.

 

[lazythursday]

Sure, and XR are in many ways great. They get people out. And you’re right, the anti fracking groups have been great. (Although sadly one in my former neck of the woods went a bit 5G conspiracy. But that’s another thread).

My issue with seeming to have the message “private citizen: don’t drive!” is take just for example where my family are from: Blantyre. It’s an ex-coal mining town with a nearby ex-steel works. All the jobs were in the mine or the steel. Then there were none. Now most people (if they work) work in things like care. So they’re scattered over the central belt. You used to be able to cycle to Ravenscraig or walk to the mine. But if your care home is in East Renfrewshire, if you don’t drive you don’t get there. Trying to do that on public transport would involve overnight stays!

So you need to provide the alternatives. How do people in low wage jobs get to work? If your message just looks like “stop driving”, you may as well be talking Klingon. It doesn’t relate to real lived experience of people.

But the message isn't meant to be that, is it? It may be what is being interpreted, I grant you.

 

[danny la rouge]

But the message isn't meant to be that, is it? It may be what is being interpreted, I grant you.

That’s exactly my point. Their choice of action is in large part what gives that impression.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think this is my biggest problem with the sort of people who are often the most enthusiastic about XR - they also tend to bang on about HS2, and Drax, neither of which are anywhere near as bad as the road building programme or gas fired power stations. Priorities all wrong and no understanding of the complexity of decarbonisation.

As I understand it the big selling point of hs2 is it would make it marginally faster to get to London from Birmingham at a cost of billions and damage to loads of ancient woodlands, not to mention the very real damage it's doing to thousands of people's lives in London. It seems a perverse project, as does the roadbuilding. It shouldn't be a case of either or but in this instance neither

 

[lazythursday]

As I understand it the big selling point of hs2 is it would make it marginally to get to London from Birmingham at a cost of billions and damage to loads of ancient woodlands, not to mention the very real damage it's doing to thousands of people's lives in London. It seems a perverse project, as does the roadbuilding. It shouldn't be a case of either or but in this instance neither

This isn't the thread for it, but it isn't really, the main point is increased capacity. Which we will need given we need to change the transport system. I think ancient woodlands should be untouchable and I don't think the project has been well planned or executed, but it's really not the most evil thing out there.

 

[danny la rouge]

it's really not the most evil thing out there.

It’s no gravy on pizzas.

 

[Artaxerxes]

I think this is my biggest problem with the sort of people who are often the most enthusiastic about XR - they also tend to bang on about HS2, and Drax, neither of which are anywhere near as bad as the road building programme or gas fired power stations. Priorities all wrong and no understanding of the complexity of decarbonisation.

It’s also both centralised but decentralised. The vision and marketing is quite centrally led but the groups are quite grassroots.

 

[maomao]

That’s exactly my point. Their choice of action is in large part what gives that impression.

I think it's more the fact that the media drags all conversations about the environment onto personal responsibility in order to obfuscate. Every thing of theirs I've ever read and every time I've ever seen one of them talk they've been at great pains to point out that this isn't about personal carbon footprint or any of that bollocks.

 

[danny la rouge]

I think it's more the fact that the media drags all conversations about the environment onto personal responsibility in order to obfuscate.

That’s definitely something that happens. The BBC did exactly that on Monday:

 

[FridgeMagnet]

They block roads (amongst many other things) because it's a simple and immediate way of getting attention, not because of anything about cars.

There is literally nothing they could do which wouldn't get reframed by the press and government as "against hard-working people". I've taken pictures at many XR events, and while there have been a couple of people in traffic who just shout and sometimes even attempt to drive through them (slowly/half-heartedly tbh, not in a murderous way) in general most people are quite positive about it all and appreciate the need for what's happening.

 

[maomao]

That’s definitely something that happens. The BBC did exactly that on Monday:

View attachment 283183

The BBC are fucking shameless these days. It's not like they were anything other than the state broadcaster previously but it's like watching CCTV in China now.

 

[glitch hiker]

So what should they do then? Personally I reckon the working classes at Stratford station (of whom I was one when they protested there) will be even more pissed off when they're swimming to work. Climate change is going to cause an awful lot of inconvenience.

I wish I had an answer for you.

Of course I agree that climate change will create greater consequences than a delayed train or a gridlock, but do most/enough people draw that conclusion yet? Even now?

 

[vanya]

Why nothing has been done about climate change. Can capitalism adapt to the environmental crisis or is it a case of socialism or barbarism?

Climate Change and Institutional Failure

Here are some of the headlines from the IPCC report on climate change, released yesterday (summary here ). * The scale of recent changes a...

averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com

 

[Pickman's model]

Why nothing has been done about climate change. Can capitalism adapt to the environmental crisis or is it a case of socialism or barbarism?

Climate Change and Institutional Failure

Here are some of the headlines from the IPCC report on climate change, released yesterday (summary here ). * The scale of recent changes a...

averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com

Capitalism has always been barbarism

So yes it is socialism or barbarism

 

[lazythursday]

Capitalism has always been barbarism

So yes it is socialism or barbarism

surely there are degrees of barbarism though. there's savage dystopian nightmare and then there's savage dystopian nightmare at 40 degrees in the shade.

 

[Pickman's model]

surely there are degrees of barbarism though. there's savage dystopian nightmare and then there's savage dystopian nightmare at 40 degrees in the shade.

Sadly there are barbaric degrees of socialism too

 

[Flavour]

Why are they sitting in the street in London? That makes the message seem like “individual citizens: stop driving”.

They should be trying to close down Fawley refinery, or Grangemouth refinery. They need to hit Exxon and BP. Not exacerbate congestion zone queues.

I agree. This is what I meant about building on the successes of Ende Gelande

 

[LDC]

Read the book How to Blow Up a Pipeline yesterday and recommend it, especially to those people saying things like 'Yeah XR aren't great, but what else is there to do?'

I was going to write a quick review of it for here, but there's a few articles/interviews here that cover the interesting and useful points...

Destroying the Means of Planetary Destruction: Richard Seymour in Conversation with Andreas Malm

In urgent times comes the urgent necessity of new hedonism, and of inflicting losses on our enemies, of revelling in certain fires.

salvage.zone

‘Property Will Cost Us the Earth’: On Ecological Rage and Class Hatred

Marxist climate-scholar Andreas Malm argues that the time for peaceful protest has passed

artreview.com

The Kaleidoscope of Catastrophe - On the Clarities and Blind Spots of Andreas Malm - Viewpoint Magazine

Reviews of Malm’s individual works may miss his blindspots and ambivalences, but once we read them side by side, we can begin to understand that they are structural to his work.

viewpointmag.com

Sure there's plenty more out there, but it's a short book and the points it makes are pretty easily grasped.

 

[LDC]

A good point that jumped out as me was thinking about carbon emissions as either luxury or subsistence rather then as all equal. Obviously they bleed into each other, but it related to what I said earlier on this thread about 'easy' victories. Meaning less about huge categories like domestic heating or aviation per se, but more about what areas can we attack and eliminate without huge disruption to the majority of people's lives.

So Malm talks about private aviation, SUVs, luxury yachts... climate class war if you like. And he mentions this has the advantage of acting as deterrent to those aspiring to this lifestyle, so changing the limits of what is acceptable culturally.

He also says lots on the poverty of XRs strategic insistence, not just on non-violence, but on no property damage, no sabotage, and insisting on a ridiculous level of politeness and 'nice' behavior. With this they've painted themselves into a corner with what's left to them as activity; basically some form of peacefully blocking roads and symbolic arty and dressing up stuff is pretty much all they can do with this very dogmatic position.