IPCC report 2021; analysis, discussion, and are we fucked?

[bimble]

I didn't even know that heat pumps exist ! Which just shows my ignorance obvs, which ignorance i think is a result of my 'we are all doomed anyway' attitude for far too long. Am really glad that i have an option, that i could not have to rely on oil even out here.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I fully agree.

It's not me being unhelpful though; it's the climate being unhelpful, and it's the people in charge being unhelpful. Don't look at me, I'm just 'little people' like you, with eyes and ears, and the ability to do what I can, which I do. Calling me 'unhelpful' (given my personal unimportance to any of this) is even more pointless than the circular arguments I've (we've all) been hearing for the last 40-odd years about who should bear the heaviest burden of climate change. The argument is nearly irrelevant, we know it will be the poorest. It always is (and ftr, 'the poorest' on a global scale isn't us in the UK).

The question for me is, how long do we go on talking about this, before we start throwing actual physical spanners into the works? The debates have been raging for at least 2 generations, when do we do something else? Yesterday? Today? Tomorrow? And we can direct action against companies and rich individuals as carefully as we like, but they will ensure they aren't the ones who bear the brunt of any losses and harms. They'll pass on whatever they can, downwards, because they always do.

I am in favour of extreme and destructive direct action, in the cause of inhibiting and disabling extreme and destructive systemic action. I always have been, and like many of us I've taken part personally. Once my parenting responsibilities are discharged I expect to find myself in trouble personally once again

The tactic we're using here is to takeover and run local governing boards that regulate utilities. We can only do that because we live in a public power district. Its one of the many reasons that they're trying to privatize electric utilities.

 

[danny la rouge]

@danny la rouge was right when he said that XR are asking for a revolution, even if they don't realise that themselves, and they might be part of that revolution but they and their activities will never be the whole of it.

I don’t remember saying that, but I sound very sensible. I agree with me.

 

[andysays]

I don’t remember saying that, but I sound very sensible. I agree with me.

I thought you said something along those lines, but maybe it was someone else, or maybe I just imagined the whole thing.

Point still stands though, whoever said it first.

 

[andysays]

I don’t remember saying that, but I sound very sensible. I agree with me.

My mistake, it was LDC who said it

...The root problem is that XR want a revolution (even if they don't say or know that)...

 

[danny la rouge]

Climate Destruction is Systemic – the Response Cannot Be “Individually Blame Ourselves”. - Anarchist Communist Group

At the beginning of August 2021, the IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change) reported on the latest evidence and announced a “code red for humanity”...

www.anarchistcommunism.org

 

[maomao]

Have been listening to Robert Evans second series of It Could Happen Here which is centered around environmental collapse rather than civil war this time. He's managed to persuade me of more of the merits of anarchism in half a dozen episodes than this place has in nearly twenty years.

He thinks the main thing we should be doing is improving mutual aid networks to prepare and and in the first five episodes called for a general strike and describes terrorism as a legitimate response to climate change. Would recommend.

 

[andysays]

Have been listening to Robert Evans second series of It Could Happen Here which is centered around environmental collapse rather than civil war this time. He's managed to persuade me of more of the merits of anarchism in half a dozen episodes than this place has in nearly twenty years.

He thinks the main thing we should be doing is improving mutual aid networks to prepare and and in the first five episodes called for a general strike and describes terrorism as a legitimate response to climate change. Would recommend.

Do you have a link?

 

[maomao]

Do you have a link?

Um, it's a podcast. I listen on Spotify:



I don't know if it's premium content or not (ie. if you need a paid subscription). There are probably better ways of listening to podcasts, ask someone under forty.

ETA: pretty impressed with myself for embeddng a Spotify link. I'll be on tiktok next.

 

[LDC]

Have been listening to Robert Evans second series of It Could Happen Here which is centered around environmental collapse rather than civil war this time. He's managed to persuade me of more of the merits of anarchism in half a dozen episodes than this place has in nearly twenty years.

He thinks the main thing we should be doing is improving mutual aid networks to prepare and and in the first five episodes called for a general strike and describes terrorism as a legitimate response to climate change. Would recommend.

Brilliant! I really liked his civil war one. Bedtime listening tonight, thanks!

Hmmm, that link you posted is only a few minutes, is it a longer thing or series as well?

 

[andysays]

Um, it's a podcast. I listen on Spotify:



I don't know if it's premium content or not (ie. if you need a paid subscription). There are probably better ways of listening to podcasts, ask someone under forty.

Thanks - I already have a spotify subscription, but haven't ever used it for podcasts, so I'll give it a go.

 

[maomao]

Brilliant! I really liked his civil war one. Bedtime listening tonight, thanks!

Hmmm, that link you posted is only a few minutes, is it a longer thing or series as well?

That's the intro to the new series. First five episodes are very much in the same style as series one and then discussion shows from there on in. There are three weeks worth up already (five a week).He's also got an audio novel up if you just want the future dystopia stuff.

 

[yield]

Just listened to the first episode of the second series. Good so far.

Vanessa Nakate: ‘I felt like I had wasted time going to Davos’

Ugandan climate activist Vanessa Nakate was cut from a photo with Greta Thunberg leaving only white people. It was an event that would hurtle her to global fame. She spoke to Abdi Latif Dahir

www.independent.co.uk

The Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells review – our terrifying future

Enough to induce a panic attack ... a brutal portrait of climate change and our future lives on Earth. But we have the tools to avoid it

www.theguardian.com

 

[weltweit]

Just listened to the first episode of the second series. Good so far.

Vanessa Nakate: ‘I felt like I had wasted time going to Davos’

Ugandan climate activist Vanessa Nakate was cut from a photo with Greta Thunberg leaving only white people. It was an event that would hurtle her to global fame. She spoke to Abdi Latif Dahir

www.independent.co.uk

I found that link unusable I am afraid, ads everywhere - article not to be found.

The Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells review – our terrifying future

Enough to induce a panic attack ... a brutal portrait of climate change and our future lives on Earth. But we have the tools to avoid it

www.theguardian.com

 

[yield]

I found that link unusable I am afraid, ads everywhere - article not to be found.

Outline - Read & annotate without distractions worldwide you ought to use ghostery in your browser

 

[teqniq]

FFS:

 

[weltweit]

WTF

Glasgow is going to be fun

 

[Artaxerxes]

Going to be a fun day in Glasgow when the conference kicks off.

 

[redsquirrel]

A snippet of info from Malm's book that made me laugh was that the book XR has based its strategy on, Why Civil Resistance Works by Chenoweth and Stephan (Why Civil Resistance Works | Columbia University Press) was authored and written by Stephan while she worked in the US embassy in Kabul as as officer in the State Department's Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations.

He demolishes the book's premise (and so XR's strategy that came from Hallam etc.) pretty nicely.

So, if XR have based their entire strategy on a flawed study, have they shown any indication of re-thinking that?

Recent LRB had two reviews of Malm's books by James Butler and Adam Tooze. Both word reading and recognising that whatever one thinks of Malm's proposals they need to be properly engaged with.

 

[Pickman's model]

WTF

Glasgow is going to be fun

What do you think of it now?

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

It looks like we're going to tip a major point soon. The gulf stream is showing signs of collapse:

One of the most crucial ocean current systems for regulating the Northern Hemisphere's climate could be on the verge of total collapse due to climate change, a new study has revealed.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which includes the Gulf Stream and is responsible for moderating large parts of the world's climate, has undergone "an almost complete loss of stability over the last century", according to a new analysis. The currents work like a conveyor belt to transport warm, salty water northward from the tropics and cold water back south along the seafloor. This giant conveyor belt had already been shown to be at its weakest in more than a thousand years, but now it could be veering toward a total breakdown.

Such a collapse would have a disastrous impact on global weather systems, leading to sea-level rises in the Atlantic; greater cooling and more powerful storms across the Northern Hemisphere; and severe disruption to the rain that billions of people rely upon to grow crops in Africa, South America and India, according to the U.K.'s meteorological office.

Gulf Stream could be veering toward irreversible collapse, a new analysis warns

Although scientists don’t fully understand the varying strengths of the factors contributing to the slowdown, all of them are linked to human-caused climate change.

www.livescience.com

Been nice to know ya boys...

 

[andysays]

It looks like we're going to tip a major point pretty sure. The gulf stream is showing signs of collapse:

Gulf Stream could be veering toward irreversible collapse, a new analysis warns

Although scientists don’t fully understand the varying strengths of the factors contributing to the slowdown, all of them are linked to human-caused climate change.

www.livescience.com

Been nice to know ya boys...

 

[Artaxerxes]

 

[yield]

New IPCC report highlights urgency of climate change impacts
February 28, 2022

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) second part of its Sixth Assessment Report summarizes the latest scientific research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities.

The new IPCC Working Group II report paints an alarming picture of rapidly growing risks currently being felt around the world, including widespread damages to human and ecological health. It finds nearly half the world population living “in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change.”

For example, the IPCC says in its report that climate change has exacerbated food and water insecurity, extreme weather disasters, declines in people’s physical and mental health, premature deaths, species loss and extinctions, and vector-borne diseases in regions around the world. Citing the Paris Climate Agreement ambitious target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial temperatures, the authors warn that each additional increment of global warming above that threshold will bring increased risks of new and worsened climate damages.

 

[NoXion]

I didn't even know that heat pumps exist ! Which just shows my ignorance obvs, which ignorance i think is a result of my 'we are all doomed anyway' attitude for far too long. Am really glad that i have an option, that i could not have to rely on oil even out here.

This kind of thing is why I absolutely despise "doomer" rhetoric. It blinds us and renders us passive.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Another report out at 4pm today so everyone get reading

 

[gawkrodger]

So far my very quick takeaways - need to decrase emissions by 2025 otherwise we're fucked

• build massive amounts of solar and wind
• electrify everything
• Conservation and efficiency implementation on everything
• halt deforestation (from a quick skim it seems less hot on halting extractive industries but may tie in with below)
• vast increase in research on stuff not figured out (planes, cement, sand etc)

huge simplification, but it. unsurprisingly, reads quite GND in places

 

[Artaxerxes]

The global wealthiest 10% contribute about 36-45% of global GHG emissions (robust evidence, 10 high agreement). The global 10% wealthiest consumers live in all continents, with two thirds in high-11 income regions and one third in emerging economies (robust evidence, medium agreement). The 12 lifestyle consumption emissions of the middle income and poorest citizens in emerging economies are 13 between 5-50 times below their counterparts in high-income countries (medium evidence, medium 14 agreement). Increasing inequality within a country can exacerbate dilemmas of redistribution and social 15 cohesion, and affect the willingness of rich and poor to accept lifestyle changes for mitigation and 16 policies to protect the environment (medium evidence, medium agreement) {2.6.1, 2.6.2, Figure 2.25

Insane.

 

[Artaxerxes]

 

[teqniq]

FFS:

Definitely in hock to the fossil fuel lobby: