How close are we to war breaking out in Europe?

[Supine]

Johnson's more interested in building bridges, although not necessarily metaphorical ones.

He’s shit at that as well

 

[Raheem]

He’s shit at that as well

Yeah. He sort of sets out to build literal bridges, but they always end up being a metaphor for something or other.

 

[Aladdin]

Well apparently I am a drone...

I dont believe Russia is going to invade. Despite Biden and Boris.

Time will tell I guess.

 

[Spymaster]

Looks like Biden is going to ramp-up the war direct with Vlad.

Ukraine tensions: Biden agrees in principle to summit with Putin

The meeting, proposed by France, will only take place if Russia does not invade Ukraine, the US says.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Aladdin]

Putin is not stupid. He doesn't want a war in Europe. He wants the Ukraine because he is obsessed with it as mother of the Rus... Biden has called him on it. Putin has lost face now. He has to back down unless he has completely lost his marbles. He knows he will not have the backing of the Russian people to go to all out war.

 

[Pickman's model]

Putin is not stupid. He doesn't want a war in Europe. He wants the Ukraine because he is obsessed with it as mother of the Rus... Biden has called him on it. Putin has lost face now. He has to back down unless he has completely lost his marbles. He knows he will not have the backing of the Russian people to go to all out war.

by all out war i suppose you mean something like the great patriotic war. i agree, losses of 27,000,000 or more wouldn't sit well with the russian people. but if it's a smaller war and limited only to ukraine and - most importantly - putin wins quickly, then it would be rather different

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Putin could send in troops to the breakaway Russian republics and formally annexe them, same as he did in Crimea. No resistance. Maybe no fighting. No loss of face.
Invading Ukraine proper would involve conflict with another army and, if successful, years and years of guerilla war.
If I was Putin I'd do the former.
(Actually, if I was Putin i'd have a nervous breakdown)

 

[Pickman's model]

Putin could send in troops to the breakaway Russian republics and formally annexe them, same as he did in Crimea. No resistance. Maybe no fighting. No loss of face.
Invading Ukraine proper would involve conflict with another army and, if successful, years and years of guerilla war.
If I was Putin I'd do the former.
(Actually, if I was Putin i'd have a nervous breakdown)

if you were putin he wouldn't be in the spot he is now

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

if you were putin he wouldn't be in the spot he is now

Supreme power might not bring out my best attributes.

 

[ska invita]

yeh there's no way that this conflict in a far-off land of which we know nothing is ever going to impact us back here in blighty

misunderstood what i was saying - namely that Tory war talk isnt relevant because as Kaka Tim and others have said, the UK is small fry diplomatically

 

[Aladdin]

by all out war i suppose you mean something like the great patriotic war. i agree, losses of 27,000,000 or more wouldn't sit well with the russian people. but if it's a smaller war and limited only to ukraine and - most importantly - putin wins quickly, then it would be rather different

The "west " will do what it does... impose sanctions and supply weapons to Ukraine. And millions of Ukrainians will suffer.

It's one thing for Putin to invade Ukraine and drag it back under Russian control, but how far will Europe and the west actually go to stop him? If Europe is pulled into a war with Russia then we can all just kiss our asses goodbye.

 

[Spymaster]

misunderstood what i was saying - namely that Tory war talk isnt relevant because as Kaka Tim and others have said, the UK is small fry diplomatically

How do you define this "Tory, talking-up" war you've been going on about that Boris and Biden (famously not a Tory) have been engaged in? What is it exactly and what do you believe is its purpose?

 

[ska invita]

How do you define this "talking-up" war you've been going on about? What is it exactly and what do you believe is its purpose?

we've done this already - if you cant see how claiming that Putin is on track to rebuild teh Soviet Union and invade Balkans and Baltic states is talking up war then theres no point us talking to each other

The question is What does de-escalation and a diplomatic solution look like? How would that be achieved?
And then judge the Tories by that benchamrk

 

[Spymaster]

we've done this already - if you cant see how claiming that Putin is on track to rebuild teh Soviet Union and invade Balkans and Baltic states is talking up war then theres no point us talking to each other

Just define "talking up war". Help me out.

What does it mean?

 

[Spymaster]

And then judge the Tories by that benchamrk

So it's a Tory thing?

Weren't you saying that Biden was at it too?

 

[Pickman's model]

misunderstood what i was saying - namely that Tory war talk isnt relevant because as Kaka Tim and others have said, the UK is small fry diplomatically

tory war talk is very relevant to us becoming embroiled in whatever happens next. perhaps the uk no longer wields the diplomatic weight is once did. but you often hear about the uk punching above its weight militarily, tory images of their own manhood depend upon this.

 

[Pickman's model]

Just define "talking up war". Help me out.

What does it mean?

he'll be along in a moment to tell you you've misunderstood

 

[Pickman's model]

The "west " will do what it does... impose sanctions and supply weapons to Ukraine. And millions of Ukrainians will suffer.

It's one thing for Putin to invade Ukraine and drag it back under Russian control, but how far will Europe and the west actually go to stop him? If Europe is pulled into a war with Russia then we can all just kiss our asses goodbye.

the way things are going with china any respite now would simply be a breathing space before The Big One with xi jinping

 

[Pickman's model]

we've done this already - if you cant see how claiming that Putin is on track to rebuild teh Soviet Union and invade Balkans and Baltic states is talking up war then theres no point us talking to each other

The question is What does de-escalation and a diplomatic solution look like? How would that be achieved?
And then judge the Tories by that benchamrk

talking about vp rebuilding the ussr is ignorant twaddle

 

[ska invita]

So it's a Tory thing?

Weren't you saying that Biden was at it too?

No

 

[ska invita]

talking about vp rebuilding the ussr is ignorant twaddle

Aka the government line

 

[Pickman's model]

Aka the government line

i'd expect nothing more from them

 

[ska invita]

tory war talk is very relevant to us becoming embroiled in whatever happens next. perhaps the uk no longer wields the diplomatic weight is once did. but you often hear about the uk punching above its weight militarily, tory images of their own manhood depend upon this.

Agree...were talking about what's happening now though

 

[Pickman's model]

Agree...were talking about what's happening now though

yeh the government talking about arming ukrainian insurgents: which is rather beyond commitments under the budapest memorandum on security assurance

 

[Spymaster]

No

So what is it when Biden does the same?

He's actually been far more vocal than BJ.

And can you define "talking up war"? I genuinely want to know what you mean by it.

 

[Aladdin]

How do you define this "Tory, talking-up" war you've been going on about that Boris and Biden (famously not a Tory) have been engaged in? What is it exactly and what do you believe is its purpose?

10th Feb

"The PM said the continent stands at the “most dangerous point” since World War Two owing to Vladimir Putin’s build-up of troops and tanks threatening Ukraine."

And he told the Polish..
"The lesson of the last 100 years is that when Poland is threatened with instability, or aggression on the borders of Poland, then we are all threatened and we’re all affected.”
Boris effectively comparing Putin to Hitler. Bound to help matters eh?

And again from 10th Feb..

“This is probably the most dangerous moment, "I would say in the course of the next few days, in what is the biggest security crisis that Europe has faced for decades.

"We’ve got to get it right. The stakes are very high.”

Back om 10th Feb..
"A thousand British troops are now on standby for an invasion on top of the 350 Royal Marines on their way to Poland for joint Arctic warfare drills.

The UK has also offered to send warships and RAF jets, on top of 900 troops in Estonia as part of a Nato deterrence mission.

Russia also faces financial consequences, with Foreign Office minister James Cleverly confirming laws for crippling sanctions had been signed in readiness.


All done without any parliamentary debate?

 

[Pickman's model]

10th Feb

"The PM said the continent stands at the “most dangerous point” since World War Two owing to Vladimir Putin’s build-up of troops and tanks threatening Ukraine."

And he told the Polish..
"The lesson of the last 100 years is that when Poland is threatened with instability, or aggression on the borders of Poland, then we are all threatened and we’re all affected.”
Boris effectively comparing Putin to Hitler. Bound to help matters eh?

And again from 10th Feb..

“This is probably the most dangerous moment, "I would say in the course of the next few days, in what is the biggest security crisis that Europe has faced for decades.

"We’ve got to get it right. The stakes are very high.”

Back om 10th Feb..
"A thousand British troops are now on standby for an invasion on top of the 350 Royal Marines on their way to Poland for joint Arctic warfare drills.

The UK has also offered to send warships and RAF jets, on top of 900 troops in Estonia as part of a Nato deterrence mission.

Russia also faces financial consequences, with Foreign Office minister James Cleverly confirming laws for crippling sanctions had been signed in readiness.


All done without any parliamentary debate?

i won't take anything about the lesson of the last hundred years from someone who thinks hitler won at stalingrad

the lesson of the last hundred years is that we should have someone who actually knows about history in number 10. the chances of that happening tho are 0

 

[Spymaster]

10th Feb

"The PM said the continent stands at the “most dangerous point” since World War Two owing to Vladimir Putin’s build-up of troops and tanks threatening Ukraine."

And he told the Polish..
"The lesson of the last 100 years is that when Poland is threatened with instability, or aggression on the borders of Poland, then we are all threatened and we’re all affected.”
Boris effectively comparing Putin to Hitler. Bound to help matters eh?

And again from 10th Feb..

“This is probably the most dangerous moment, "I would say in the course of the next few days, in what is the biggest security crisis that Europe has faced for decades.

"We’ve got to get it right. The stakes are very high.”

Back om 10th Feb..
"A thousand British troops are now on standby for an invasion on top of the 350 Royal Marines on their way to Poland for joint Arctic warfare drills.

The UK has also offered to send warships and RAF jets, on top of 900 troops in Estonia as part of a Nato deterrence mission.

Russia also faces financial consequences, with Foreign Office minister James Cleverly confirming laws for crippling sanctions had been signed in readiness.


All done without any parliamentary debate?

That's examples of statements. You're not answering the question though.

In what way are those statements "talking up war"?

What is the intention of this "talking up war", in your view?

 

[Aladdin]

What the world needs to remember is that capability is not the same as intent.

Russia has plans
US has plans
UK has plans

Everyone has "plans" for all sorts of eventualities


What Putin has NOT done is telling. Russians are not being prepared for a "big war in europe".

 

[Aladdin]

That's examples of statements. You're not answering the question though.

In what way are those statements "talking up war"?

What is the intention of this "talking up war", in your view?

Boris is not above using the Ukraine / Russian crisis to distract from his own crap and to make himself appear to be a "stateman" of some weight in the world.