Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
So he's "talking-up" a war to divert attention from his domestic issues, not to actually foment a war?
And "talking up" means "talking about"?
How close are we to war breaking out in Europe?
- Thread starter Aladdin
- Start date
So he's "talking-up" a war to divert attention from his domestic issues, not to actually foment a war?
And "talking up" means "talking about"?
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
A bit like you having 'feelings' about this, but that not being the same as actual analysis or understanding?
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
On the other hand ...
Russia Introduces Regulations To Expedite Mass Burials Of Those Killed During Military Conflicts
Russian authorities have published new regulations on the expedited mass burial of humans and animals who die as a result of military conflicts or noncombatant emergencies, stoking already heightened tensions that the country may be preparing to invade Ukraine.
www.rferl.org
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
As opposed to you...listening to Boris telling you there's going to be a "big war in Europe ".
Putin has had troops along the Ukraine border for over a year.
Boris basically called Putin, Hitler , in Poland 2 weeks ago. The UK foreign minister doesn't even know her geography and makes stupid comments and everyone is told she is " punchy"..Hurrah!! Look at us..we are just so tally ho and pucker!!
Boris orders troops to head in to Poland and sit on the border without any parliamentary debate.
Seriously. Analyse that...and then come back and tell me who doesnt understand.
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
The way I see it, talking up of the war seems to me a strategic move to help prevent a war. How many times have I read in the last few weeks 'Russia's definitely going to invade' and now it's 'imminent' and then it 'will probably be tomorrow' and now it's 'in the next few days/hours' blah blah
Every time Putin's forced to come out saying they're not going to invade and they're just 'conducting military exercises', 'the West are hysterical' etc
So it seems strategically designed to allow Russia to back down while saving face and blaming the "hysterical West" who were wrong and he was right - and even if they do invade the West save face anyway by not being caught out. It's a win win of sorts.
Every time Putin's forced to come out saying they're not going to invade and they're just 'conducting military exercises', 'the West are hysterical' etc
So it seems strategically designed to allow Russia to back down while saving face and blaming the "hysterical West" who were wrong and he was right - and even if they do invade the West save face anyway by not being caught out. It's a win win of sorts.
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
On the other hand ...
Russia Introduces Regulations To Expedite Mass Burials Of Those Killed During Military Conflicts
Russian authorities have published new regulations on the expedited mass burial of humans and animals who die as a result of military conflicts or noncombatant emergencies, stoking already heightened tensions that the country may be preparing to invade Ukraine.
Covid mass graves
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
Yes. I agree with you from the point of view that Biden is doing this.
Boris is just a fucking twat who cannot wait to recite a Beaches speech.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
You seem so fixated on personalities and newspaper headlines you're missing the more important stuff.
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
Yes...so much so that I started the thread...
The important "stuff" is that Putin is not invading.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
You seem totally convinced he's not going to. What have you read, or what's your understanding that's led you to this? And you think that any talk of a possible invasion is just made up? And what do you think Putin is doing then, and why? And is that not a problem even without any invasion?
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
Yeah. Makes sense when the Covid death rate is declining everywhere.Let's be honest here; if Putin himself drove into Kiev, guns blazing on a battle tank, you'd say he's on a rescue mission.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
IT'D BE FAKE NEWS BY BORIS.
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
The article you quoted was from 2020
Let's be honest here; if Putin himself drove into Kiev, guns blazing on a battle tank, you'd say he's on a rescue mission!
8ball
Decolonise colons!
Well, tbf I'm getting a little sceptical about the two invasions that apparently were happening last week.
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
Fuck off.
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
I think the same as I did 3 weeks ago. And most who posted three weeks ago.
Putin is not planning a war in Europe.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
andysays
Love and solidarity
I don't think it's entirely ridiculous to suggest that Johnson's statements are "talking up war", both in terms of the chances of it breaking out, and also in its likely seriousness.
Some of what we've seen comes across as if a Russian invasion of Ukraine is now more or less a certainty, which strikes me as an exaggeration (which is not me saying that invasion is an impossibility).
And the stuff about the biggest war since 1945 and about how an invasion of the Ukraine would merely be the first step to the Russian annexation of half of Eastern Europe. Again, this strikes me as an exaggeration.
As to his possible reasons for doing it, I'm pretty sure it's not because he cares about anyone in Ukraine, or even because it's a serious attempt at a useful diplomatic intervention which will de-escalate the situation.
It's primarily aimed at making Boris Johnson look good, to the UK audience, and perhaps among NATO and other "western allies" (whether it will work is another question).
And if it distracts from some of his domestic worries, that's all to the good too, from his point of view.
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
Pure speculation but if invasion wasn't on the cards (or he's decided against it for now) then he's at least brought the world's leaders to the long table and got to play the big man for the audience back home. He has undoubtedly also emboldened the separatists in the Donbas which he'll take as a win, and he may have bought time on preventing NATO membership from Ukraine now he's got everyone's attention on how that could end. He'll take all those as a win and all for the price of amassing his troops within his own borders.
Lavrov also getting to make Truss look like an uninformed idiot on the world stage will be seen as a bonus. Though tbf that wasn't exactly difficult.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
You seem convinced, I wish I had your confidence, but I don't because of Putin's record on invading Ukraine before, resulting in the illegal annexation of Crimea, and before that the invasion of Georgia, he's a very dangerous man.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
to be fair it's a very moderate record in comparison to the military actions undertaken by the united states and britain over the past 20 years, iraq, libya, afghanistan etc
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
As Skyscraper said above, there are plenty of reason why leaders may talk the way Biden and BJ have been. Attempting to limit Russia's options of staging a pretext to invasion; to convince other leaders who haven't yet taken the stance you want; to make an invasion unpopular with the Russian people; to make potential allies of Russia change their minds, etc.
I agree with most of your post, esp the last sentence. This has come at a convenient time for BJ as it will divert a little attention from his current woes but only temporarily and not enough to extract him from the depth of shit he's in here. That's not the same as trying to start a war, which Ska and Alladin have been alluding to.
On balance, I agree that Russia is probably not going to invade.
At the moment, he is winning. He has the world's attention. He has western leaders scurrying around, beating a path to his door to have summits. He is setting the agenda (because everyone is trying to figure out what he wants). He is succeeding in making the US President look silly, through successive predicted dates for the invasion passing without an invasion. He has divided the EU, which is scared stiff of disruption to gas supplies.
As long as he can find additional ways to increase tensions he will do so. Even an action as mundane as painting tactical markings on tanks has succeeded in ramping tensions up another notch.
The moment he invades he throws in nearly all the cards in his hand. He will have lost all his options except the last one, which is to win a war that will not be easy to win.
I hope I'm not fooling myself because I want it to be true.
At the moment, he is winning. He has the world's attention. He has western leaders scurrying around, beating a path to his door to have summits. He is setting the agenda (because everyone is trying to figure out what he wants). He is succeeding in making the US President look silly, through successive predicted dates for the invasion passing without an invasion. He has divided the EU, which is scared stiff of disruption to gas supplies.
As long as he can find additional ways to increase tensions he will do so. Even an action as mundane as painting tactical markings on tanks has succeeded in ramping tensions up another notch.
The moment he invades he throws in nearly all the cards in his hand. He will have lost all his options except the last one, which is to win a war that will not be easy to win.
I hope I'm not fooling myself because I want it to be true.
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
The British Empire was Dangerous.
The US and allies invading Iraq and Afghanistan and then leaving the Afghan people in the lurch ...was / is dangerous.
Putin holding manoevres inside his own border is not, at the moment, dangerous to Europe. That's not to say he is not a very dangerous leader and its not excusing him for Crimea etc. But until he actually invades ...he isnt invading... and people like Boris claiming "he will invade tomorrow" ..(2 weeks ago)
Is ramping up the situation
Boris sending troops to Poland.
Biden sending 5000 troops.
Its a gane of chess. Putin is not going to cause a war. His main purpose in this relates to NATO expanding to eastern europe.
andysays
Love and solidarity
I agree that there might be "legitimate" reasons for talking up a war, though I'm less convinced that those are Johnson's primary motivation.
And the danger of talking it up in an attempt to get the other side to back down is that it might backfire and lead to an escalation rather than a de-escalation.
None of which means I think Johnson is actively trying to start a war.
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
I agree with most of this.
Except I did not say Boris was "trying to start a war".
I said he was ramping up the war talk by calling Putin Hitler and by telling everyone we re on the brink of the biggest war in Europe.
He then sends troops to poland and promises more without parliamentary debate.
Do you think he is a safe pair of hands? And if Putin does invade Ukraine what way will Boris react do you think?
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
Well again, I don't know what you mean by "talking up a war", and nobody seems to want to tell me. It's just talking about, isn't it?
How would that happen? This is what Putin and his cronies have been saying.
How will saying "Putin intends to invade Ukraine" cause Putin to invade Ukraine if he doesn't want to?
It's bollocks isn't it?
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
Which is why Boris trying to inflame things with war rhetoric and decision making without parliamentary debate should worry you.
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