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How close are we to war breaking out in Europe?

Aladdin said:
The British Empire was Dangerous.
The US and allies invading Iraq and Afghanistan and then leaving the Afghan people in the lurch ...was / is dangerous.
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Irrelevant to the discussion about Ukraine.

Putin holding manoevres inside his own border is not, at the moment, dangerous to Europe. That's not to say he is not a very dangerous leader and its not excusing him for Crimea etc. But until he actually invades ...he isnt invading... and people like Boris claiming "he will invade tomorrow" ..(2 weeks ago)
Is ramping up the situation
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I don't know why you are so hung-up on Johnson, he's an irrelevant twat, nothing he says or does will change whatever Putin decides to do.

Boris sending troops to Poland.
Biden sending 5000 troops.
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Again, I have no idea why you are so hung-up on this, it's a drop in the ocean compared to the almost 200k troops that Putin has in place for a potential invasion, which you don't seem to think is an issue.

Its a gane of chess. Putin is not going to cause a war. His main purpose in this relates to NATO expanding to eastern europe.
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We know that, but it's not up to him if Ukraine finally joins NATO, they are an independent democratic country and Putin has no right to be making demands on them, it's none of his bloody business what they decide to do, unless that involves invading Russia, which clearly wouldn't happen.
 
cupid_stunt said:
Irrelevant to the discussion about Ukraine.



I don't know why you are so hung-up on Johnson, he's an irrelevant twat, nothing he says or does will change whatever Putin decides to do.



Again, I have no idea why you are so hung-up on this, it's a drop in the ocean compared to the almost 200k troops that Putin has in place for a potential invasion, which you don't seem to think is an issue.



We know that, but it's not up to him if Ukraine finally joins NATO, they are an independent democratic country and Putin has no right to be making demands on them, it's none of his bloody business what they decide to do, unless that involves invading Russia, which clearly wouldn't happen.
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For an irrelevant twat Boris is getting stuck in there. I dont get why you dont see how Boris is lapping up this situation. He would probably love to be in charge of a war.



Worth watching if you're interested in why the expansion of NATO into eastern Europe and countries bordering Russia has become an issue.

A promise was made to Russia in 1990 ..after Germany reunited...
James Baker promised Gorbachev through his interpreter, Pavel Palazhchenko, that if US troops remained in Germany after reunification, Nato would not expand “an inch to the east”.

www.thetimes.co.uk

Promises to Moscow after Cold War come back to haunt western powers

It was February 1990 when Mikhail Gorbachev and the US secretary of state met for talks on Germany’s future. During hours of discussion in Moscow James Bake
www.thetimes.co.uk www.thetimes.co.uk
 
Aladdin said:
A promise was made to Russia in 1990 ..after Germany reunited...
James Baker promised Gorbachev through his interpreter, Pavel Palazhchenko, that if US troops remained in Germany after reunification, Nato would not expand “an inch to the east”.

www.thetimes.co.uk

Promises to Moscow after Cold War come back to haunt western powers

It was February 1990 when Mikhail Gorbachev and the US secretary of state met for talks on Germany’s future. During hours of discussion in Moscow James Bake
www.thetimes.co.uk www.thetimes.co.uk
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Now look at the full comment from Palazhchenko in that article...

However, Palazhchenko, says that Baker’s comment was related exclusively to Nato expansion into the territory of East Germany, rather than countries in central or eastern Europe.

“Baker said that [a united Germany] should become a member of Nato, but that Nato infrastructure should not move and extend to the territory of the GDR,” Palazhchenko said. “But certainly no promise was made as regards Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, etc. Such a promise could not be made because no one, including the leaders of those countries, raised the possibility of them becoming members of Nato.

“I was there, I recorded that conversation. That is what was discussed. Of course, people for their own political purposes take that particular phrase out of context and they make their political points. But so far as I’m concerned that concerned only the territory of the GDR.”
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cupid_stunt said:
Now look at the full comment from Palazhchenko in that article...
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NATO’s secretary general also stated it in a speech on May 17 that same year in Brussels.

The thing is ...at the time nobody could have foreseen the collapse of the USSR.

Putin knows that Russia signed a document the NATO-Russia Founding Act in 1997, through which they become partners and committed to guaranteeing peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area as well as the territorial integrity of all member states.

So ..swings..roundabouts.

I really dont believe Putin will set up any scenario where Russia goes to war with Europe
 
Aladdin said:
The thing is ...at the time nobody could have foreseen the collapse of the USSR.
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the americans spend billions of dollars on their intelligence agencies who should have foreseen the collapse of the soviet union. there were many hundreds if not thousands of people whose entire career was devoted to ferreting out information from the ussr, you'd have thought one or two of them would have been able to identify the warning signs that the machine would stop.
 
Pickman's model said:
the americans spend billions of dollars on their intelligence agencies who should have foreseen the collapse of the soviet union. there were many hundreds if not thousands of people whose entire career was devoted to ferreting out information from the ussr, you'd have thought one or two of them would have been able to identify the warning signs that the machine would stop.
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not as good as they think they are.
 
Pickman's model said:
the americans spend billions of dollars on their intelligence agencies who should have foreseen the collapse of the soviet union. there were many hundreds if not thousands of people whose entire career was devoted to ferreting out information from the ussr, you'd have thought one or two of them would have been able to identify the warning signs that the machine would stop.
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I reckon the Soviet Union could have carried on for a good while longer, merely through inertia. A lot was down to the personalities of Gorbachev and Yeltsin. The end of Communism also need not have meant the end of the Russian empire, certainly not in the way it actually happened with the Soviet Union splintering into its supposed parts. I'm not sure anyone saw that coming until it actually did.
 
So, the Russian exercises in Belarus, which were supposed to end yesterday, with Russian troops returning home, have now been extended.

Russia is claiming the Donetsk People's Republic has asked for military assistance, which I am sure they have under Putin's instructions, giving him the excuse to send Russian troops across the border.
 

Vladimir Putin 'considering' recognising independence of separatist regions​



Vladimir Putin, who is chairing an ad-hoc meeting of Russia's Security Council, says the Ukrainian government has made it clear with its actions that it is not going to comply with the Minsk peace agreement.
He asked Russia's foreign minister and then an envoy to the peace talks with Ukraine to present their reports before he would react to an appeal from the separatists to recognise the independence of their states.
"Our goal is to listen to our colleagues and determine our next steps in this direction, bearing in mind both the appeals of the leaders of the DNR (Donetsk People's Republic) and LNR (Lugansk People's Republic) to recognise their independence," Mr Putin said while opening a televised security council meeting.
Mr Putin told the ad-hoc session of Russia's Security Council that the Ukrainian government conducted two majority military operations against the separatists in the Donbas and said it appears there might be another attack.
"As far as I can see we're witnessing an escalation for the third time," he said.
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There's already been a Communist-sponsored bill passed in the Duma calling for the recognition of Donbas and Lugansk, I believe.
 
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he spoke with Secretary of State Antony Blinken about the possible summit, adding, “We welcome this initiative. We believe that every effort aimed at diplomatic solution is worth trying."

The more diplomacy the better ar this stage.
And the fact that Russia is now looking at ACCEPTING the independence of the rebel republics is interesting.
Putin may well be attempting to come out of this looking good at home. While at the same time keeping control .

Also the fact that Ukriane does not fulfil requirements ro join NATO and according to the US is nowhere near ready to join NATO might be enough.
 
Yes, fair enough.

Here's a thread from a Guardian reporter on the Security Council meeting:

 
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zahir said:
Yes, fair enough.

Here's a thread from a Guardian reporter on the Security Council meeting:

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Maybe Ukraine will decide to just walk away from conflict and the republics will be independent... once the undispited areas are left alone?

Maybe Putin will invade tomorrow at 2am 22/02/2022.

Still I am hoping that Putin wont invade but media coverage in the US especially is definitely pushing the view that there will be a blood bath. UK today seems a little bit more circumspect.
 
Brainaddict said:
I'm unable to follow this stuff in much detail as I don't have the time/energy, but having spotted a lot of arguing on twitter over what the correct left wing position is, I'm struck by how few people are able to think that maybe neither side are the good guys.
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yes, once again the correct answer is 'a plague on both your houses'
 
Flicking through the several news channels available I dropped onto CNN, I wonder if anyone else is wondering where Keef, the apparent capital of Ukraine is?
 
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