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Griffin and BNP strategy

torres said:
Uh....you've found no uncontested seats and none that boost the BNPs vote nationally - unless you count 84 votes as inflating the figures. keep aiming at the wrong target though.

WTF are you on? Your comment is gibberish - no contest seats a plenty there... Who gives a toss about the BNP - they're irrelevant:D
 
In Labour heartlands there often isn't any opposition so it tends to artificially inflate the BNP vote - where there is some choice it tends to split that vote.

Where is this inflation - and why is it artificial?
 
Can you please tie this to some sort of point? iI anyhting it showes that the left is dead if you want to extrapolate like stupid.

This is it from now on is it, you desperately trying to blow up the left?
 
torres said:
Can you please tie this to some sort of point? iI anyhting it showes that the left is dead if you want to extrapolate like stupid.

This is it from now on is it, you desperately trying to blow up the left?

But you are trying to denigrate them and that is the other extreme, I prefer the middle realistic ground to be tbh.:p :D
 
torres said:
Yeah, the left is winning. Fucking hell. We could not be in a better postion could we?

Here's Gateshead from this year;

http://www.gateshead.gov.uk/Council and Democracy/voting/results2007.aspx

GO and have an objective look at these results on a low turnout admittedly;

BNP standing, but coming nowhere in all seats, 8-10% roughly I would guess.

The traditional parties all standing and doing OK. The result? Status quo.

There's plenty to say about this of course...:p :D
 
8-10% with little or no party organisation up there - this is bad? The BNP normalisng a vote of that size (and it was 15% across sunderland wasn't it?) for them behind everyones back and in certain areas - the status quo? Dream on.
 
torres said:
8-10% with little or no party organisation up there - this is bad? The BNP normalisng a vote of that size (and it was 15% across sunderland wasn't it?) for them behind everyones back and in certain areas - the status quo? Dream on.


If you want to bring Sunderland into it I shall go and check the figures, but they are on a year on year decline in Sunderland I think, around 13% now (my memory tells me this although I will now go and check).

If you want more of the status quo there are 2 easy examples in the North East that come to mind. Firstly, Middlesborough - with no BNP candidates at all!! And then Stockton on Tees; http://www.stockton.gov.uk/ 2 candidates with around 8/10% of the vote (and I suspect I have inflated their vote but I cannot be bothered to check).

Result? Status quo.
 
No, not with a normalised 10-15% BNP vote in w/c communities. Not even close to the status quo. A status quo which itself is not good enough btw. Can't you begin to see the danger that this poses? Really?
 
torres said:
No, not with a normalised 10-15% BNP vote in w/c communities. Not even close to the status quo. A status quo which itself is not good enough btw. Can't you begin to see the danger that this poses? Really?


But it is not normalised in all W/c communities, a limited number maybe. But none in a big city like Boro IS significant. The BNP votes there are, are erratic, some wards higher, some lower.

Danger? I laugh in the face of danger and spit in its eye:eek: :D

But seriously, I think the anti fascist left in this country is in a piss poor state. But then I said this in the article I sent you - have you read it yet? I think the way forward is in more unity and solidarity, not less.
 
torres said:
No, not with a normalised 10-15% BNP vote in w/c communities. Not even close to the status quo. A status quo which itself is not good enough btw. Can't you begin to see the danger that this poses? Really?

Here the BNP are experimenting with getting votes - there are 2 main stories on their website at the minute, and here is the latest one with the 'N' in 'BNP' taken out;

http://www.b p.org.uk/news_detail.php?newsId=1615

They clearly are desperate to use any line possible to promote themselves, an attack on Spence's 4x4, and then blaming labour for it. It's rubbish. I think they will do poorly in Sedgefield... There's a lot of delusions of grandeur and wishful thinking in their self promotion. Calling themselves the 'new kids on the block' politically - its bollocks.
 
I think torres has said it before, but if leftist candidates were pulling in these votes in these areas, there would be endless threads on here praising them for breakthroughs.
 
mk12 said:
I think torres has said it before, but if leftist candidates were pulling in these votes in these areas, there would be endless threads on here praising them for breakthroughs.

:confused: There never has been though has there. Apart from the CP around/after WW2.

Not every leftist group has prioritised elections, and certainly anarchists never have! Fetishisation of elections is the preserve of bourgeois politics.:)
 
Attica said:
In Labour heartlands there often isn't any opposition so it tends to artificially inflate the BNP vote - where there is some choice it tends to split that vote.

Disagree with you on this one- full vote below with 5 votes and chancged to May 2007

Rotherham MBC, Valley
Lab 781 (43.8; -1.5),
BNP 348 (19.5; +2.0),
Ind 308 (17.3; +17.3),
Con 197 (11.0; -10.4),
LD 150 (8.4; -7.4).

Thats a full slate of mainstream candidates- and an independent who wasnt there last time- and the BNP vote went up ( a litttle, but still up)
 
Attica said:
Here the BNP are experimenting with getting votes ..... It's rubbish. I think they will do poorly in Sedgefield... There's a lot of delusions of grandeur and wishful thinking in their self promotion. .

1. The experiment started in 2000

2. As to sedgefield, if you can judge by the council election results in 2007, dont agree- there is some potential for them there. They stood in 14 of the 16 sedgefield wards- polling anwyhere between 39.9% and 3.3% with a total vote of 5,706 in those wards. if they can turn some of this support into votes this time round, and poll anywhere over 2,000 votes this time round I can see a saved deposit at least for them
 
Attica said:
:confused: There never has been though has there. Apart from the CP around/after WW2.

Not every leftist group has prioritised elections, and certainly anarchists never have! Fetishisation of elections is the preserve of bourgeois politics.:)

attica

we are NOT fetishing elections ..

we are not panicing

etc etc

and torres clearly there are many seats in rural areas that are unpposed indy or tory and in urban areas there are some unopposed lab

but actually attica i do not see what relevance this has

can we not agree that we have a neo nazi organisation with unprecedented in british history, votes?

can we also not agree that they still though do not have the organisation to do anything with this vote and that it may be a purely protest vote?

clealry you have a beef with torres but it is not developing how we deal with the BNP WHEN we need to.
 
JimPage said:
1. The experiment started in 2000

2. As to sedgefield, if you can judge by the council election results in 2007, dont agree- there is some potential for them there. They stood in 14 of the 16 sedgefield wards- polling anwyhere between 39.9% and 3.3% with a total vote of 5,706 in those wards. if they can turn some of this support into votes this time round, and poll anywhere over 2,000 votes this time round I can see a saved deposit at least for them

I count 3,900 but anyway JP i essentially agree with you ..

surely attica their vote has gone up massively from 2003 to 2007 .. from just over 300 to many thousend is surely an issue??

p.s. what is the differrence between Sedgefield Council and Great Aycliffe council??:confused:
 
JimPage said:
Disagree with you on this one- full vote below with 5 votes and chancged to May 2007

Rotherham MBC, Valley
Lab 781 (43.8; -1.5),
BNP 348 (19.5; +2.0),
Ind 308 (17.3; +17.3),
Con 197 (11.0; -10.4),
LD 150 (8.4; -7.4).

Thats a full slate of mainstream candidates- and an independent who wasnt there last time- and the BNP vote went up ( a litttle, but still up)

This seems to me to be evidence of their vote peaking in this ward. Of course, whether it splits and by how much is down to local conditions, and efforts of the parties and the class composition and experience of voters differs in all wards...
 
durruti02 said:
p.s. what is the differrence between Sedgefield Council and Great Aycliffe council??:confused:

Practically the same difference that exists between North Herts Council and Stevenage Borough Council: geography.
 
JimPage said:
1. The experiment started in 2000

2. As to sedgefield, if you can judge by the council election results in 2007, dont agree- there is some potential for them there. They stood in 14 of the 16 sedgefield wards- polling anwyhere between 39.9% and 3.3% with a total vote of 5,706 in those wards. if they can turn some of this support into votes this time round, and poll anywhere over 2,000 votes this time round I can see a saved deposit at least for them

They seem to have thrown a lot of effort into this seat but I don't live in the ward and have heard nothing about their actual efforts - though they are boasting about the efforts they are putting in. Including adverts in a local paper. There is some potential true, and given the money and apparent effort they put in, a saved deposit wouldn't be such a surprise. We'll see l8r. I didn't expect the newspaper adds for a start... There is a lot of wishful thinking by them on their website though - that is clear...
 
Attica said:
This seems to me to be evidence of their vote peaking in this ward. Of course, whether it splits and by how much is down to local conditions, and efforts of the parties and the class composition and experience of voters differs in all wards...

sorry attica but if we had said 20 years ago that in 2006 we would accept a neo nazi vote averaging 20% in working class areas, i would be very suprised. It was inconceivable then and should be now.
 
durruti02 said:
sorry attica but if we had said 20 years ago that in 2006 we would accept a neo nazi vote averaging 20% in working class areas, i would be very suprised. It was inconceivable then and should be now.

But its not - it is only in a minority of wards...

BTW - other people get criticised for calling them 'nazi'...
 
JimPage said:
1. The experiment started in 2000

2. As to sedgefield, if you can judge by the council election results in 2007, dont agree- there is some potential for them there. They stood in 14 of the 16 sedgefield wards- polling anwyhere between 39.9% and 3.3% with a total vote of 5,706 in those wards. if they can turn some of this support into votes this time round, and poll anywhere over 2,000 votes this time round I can see a saved deposit at least for them


1. Yes, there was a new path then, I was talking about how they are thinking on their feet in THIS election though. Having looked at their material I think their political judgement is wrong constantly in a number of ways.

2. Sedgefield results! Labour win on 40% turnout - 12K, 7K majority, down but respectable enough, Lib dem second, Tory 3rd, BNP 4th - 2,494 votes - 10% ish, Local independent 5th (forget name).

This ward represents a full on BNP try in a local election, which realised probably their maximum vote in this area. At a general election the result would be different simply because they would be spread too thin to get even this vote again - not get the adverts in the local paper cos they were funded nationally and probably internationally etc...

The local independent is the winner here I think, from nowhere, without a national profile, to 5th out of 12 runners
 
durruti02 said:
sorry attica but if we had said 20 years ago that in 2006 we would accept a neo nazi vote averaging 20% in working class areas, i would be very suprised. It was inconceivable then and should be now.

Maybe, but its not so much of a surprise given events in Europe. As I said I believe a lot of the BNP votes are votes that were already there, but not reaped. In other words there wasn't much politically for them to do to get those votes.

I also repeat that Griffin is not that good, the far harder and first task for him to accomplish is to break into the next level of votes, and this will be the 1st really serious test of his leadership. I think we can look forward to some years of them treading water before they realise this.
 
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