Greek elections

[weltweit]

Greece have had active / discreet discussions with De La Rue in the past year, I do know that. I do not however have any more detials about whaT

Yup, if I were them I would have had such discussions.

 

[Sunray]

As discussed earlier in the thread a return to the Drachma, at least in the short term, would be almost impossible. Not least because of the time it would take to print and distribute the new currency. There was a spokesperson from the Royal Mint discussing this possibility on Radio 4 recently. He said that the design, printing and distribution of a new currency could take years.
.......

I wonder how long it would take if Greece's mint(s) had kept the tooling for their pre Euro currency?

This has been on the cards for five years, so they have had plenty of time.

Unfortunately, they import a lot of stuff like pharmaceuticals, so having their own currency does nothing for people who want to bulk buy um, inhalers for instance.

If it all collapses, and its teetering on the brink of wholesale collapse, right now. From healthcare to rubbish collection, you name it, Greece is pretty much unable to afford to pay for basic services. If you have a holiday booked I would think again, because it might be grim.

I think the whole of Europe needs to launch some form of humanitarian aid, now really. Its beyond a joke, a few rich people in the big institutions seeing euro signs and not people.

 

[happie chappie]

no, i'm talking about the 100bn euros the greeks owe other countries

I know but the other countries have, in all probability, contingency plans in place.

We still come back to the question of what Greece’s contingency plans are.

A default would mean Greece out of the Euro and shut out of the markets for ever and a day, unable to borrow at anywhere near affordable rates.

It would be effectively reliant on the charity of others, as would the vast majority of the Greek population.

 

[pocketscience]

I think some of this is based on wishful thinking. In a trial of strength between the IMF and an effectively bankrupt Greece relying on life-support from the ECB there’s only going to be one winner and it won’t be the Greeks.

The Troika is in a position to inflict far more pain on Greece than Greece is on the Eurozone.

Taking the IMF out of the equation for a second, If the bulk of the member states of the European Union is reduced inflicting pain on another member, then everyone's lost.
There will be a major uprisings - you may as well start an Allxit now.

 

[gosub]

Did I miss something?

Well, there was no better deal that would be settled in 48hours, Tspiras claiming there was, probably lead to other countries leaders not having talks til tomorrow night

 

[chilango]

I fucking love armchair commentators playing at being rational millionaires.

Seriously, get a grip.

The market isn't some fucking natural state of affairs akin to the laws of physics.

Grr.

Too fucking angry with complacent, superficial "commentary" too deal with reading it here too.

 

[Pickman's model]

I know but the other countries have, in all probability, contingency plans in place.

We still come back to the question of what Greece’s contingency plans are.

A default would mean Greece out of the Euro and shut out of the markets for ever and a day, unable to borrow at anywhere near affordable rates.

It would be effectively reliant on the charity of others, as would the vast majority of the Greek population.

and the germans would kiss goodbye to 68bn euros. i am not sure they would want to.

 

[happie chappie]

and the germans would kiss goodbye to 68bn euros. i am not sure they would want to.

They may not want to, but they have been preparing for it.

 

[DotCommunist]

if you think Greece has nothing to lose you've listening to shrills on the internet too long.

Greece has (for example) a tourism industry that accounts for around 16% of all employment in Greece, around 18% of its GDP and puts around €25billion in its coffers every year. if Greece either stagnates in a cashless banking crises, or leaves the EZ and uses a worthless currency that no one outside of Greece will accept in return for goods or services, then it won't be able to do simple things like buy food for tourists to eat in hotels, or buy aviation fuel to refuel the tourist flights, or buy petrol for taxi's and buses.

Greece grows around 40% of the food it consumes, and it has a handful of oil fields that produce a fraction of its needs - it is entirely dependent on imports like this to remain a destination for anyone other than the kind of people who holiday in North Korea - without a currency that people with those commodities will accept then this country with nothing to lose will lose an awful lot more.

theres always a worse, and it can get a lot worse.

'we can make you several thousand times worse is not a negotiating position that can be credibly used by the other side of the table. Yes they can but we and anyone else knows the US and reality (a failed state on your borders) would not allow. This talk is exactly the sort of bollocks and bluster they've just seen right through.

 

[happie chappie]

I fucking love armchair commentators playing at being rational millionaires.

Seriously, get a grip.

The market isn't some fucking natural state of affairs akin to the laws of physics.

Grr.

Too fucking angry with complacent, superficial "commentary" too deal with reading it here too.

If that's aimed at me then state what you think is going to happen and we can debate it. That's what these boards are for after all.

If my arguments are wrong I'm more than happy to admit it. Believe it or not I actually want to learn.

 

[DotCommunist]

why do right wing twats think quoting numbers is meaningful in a condition of continual fictitous capital either. Numbers mean a lot when it comes to costing a mission or balancing out fuel costs kebabking. In the sphere of civilian banking operations its bollocks

 

[kebabking]

and the germans would kiss goodbye to 68bn euros. i am not sure they would want to.

i doubt they do - i wouldn't - however the feeling in Germany appears to be that further support to Greece just increases the pile of money they'll never get back. thats the crux, they just don't believe they'll ever get back either the money they're owed, or any money they supply from now on.

Germany can continue without that eye-watering sum - after all, they've not got it now, the Greeks have - Greece however, unless it can magic up a currency which you or i would exchange for aviation fuel, or wheat, or medicines, cannot continue without further EZ support. that makes negotiations very one sided.

 

[jcsd]

I fucking love armchair commentators playing at being rational millionaires.

I am literally sitting in an armchair, commentating- but I don't think this applies to me.

 

[DotCommunist]

why can't they just invent more numbers, like they did with, oh I don't know, every country in the western world when they fell over and shat themselves. Capitalist wankers. Bail out every rich fucker but when we ask for some relief its suddenly not possible and childish to even consider it

 

[chilango]

If that's aimed at me then state what you think is going to happen and we can debate it. That's what these boards are for after all.

If my arguments are wrong I'm more than happy to admit it. Believe it or not I actually want to learn.

No, it's not aimed at you. I've no desire to single out any particular posters. Am just pissed off with the "stupid Greeks" narrative that is being dressed up as "common sense" by those with no stake in the matter.

 

[gosub]

Yup, if I were them I would have had such discussions.

Not sure I would, a lot of time and money on bits of paper people will value less than the euros they've horded. The electric bit of a currency (not bit coin their own) worth more time investment and a stabler foundation for tax Base when Joe public runs out of readies to spend on the black market

 

[kebabking]

..Numbers mean a lot when it comes to costing a mission or balancing out fuel costs kebabking. In the sphere of civilian banking operations its bollocks

as can be seen in the ATM's outside Greek banks, that little gem turns out not to be true.

i know you really, really want this to be the start of some europe-wide movement where capital is made irrelevent, but that is not what is happening right now, in Greece, where you can't buy medicines from the pharmacist.

 

[agricola]

Germany can continue without that eye-watering sum - after all, they've not got it now, the Greeks have - Greece however, unless it can magic up a currency which you or i would exchange for aviation fuel, or wheat, or medicines, cannot continue without further EZ support. that makes negotiations very one sided.

Not really - if the Greeks left the Euro and defaulted on their loans they would get support (indeed they would probably have to get some assistance as they would still be in the EU), and they would probably be able to bring about a currency that had a level of trust provided there was some reasonableness behind it (given that it would be a better way of fixing problems than staying in the Euro and postponing the crisis for another twelve or eighteen months).

(edit) In fact that might be more of a reason why Varoufakis has gone, for all his antics over the past two weeks you didnt really get an impression of how he would get out of this.

 

[DotCommunist]

as can be seen in the ATM's outside Greek banks, that little gem turns out not to be true.

i know you really, really want this to be the start of some europe-wide movement where capital is made irrelevent, but that is not what is happening right now, in Greece, where you can't buy medicines from the pharmacist.

yeah ireland and argentina turned to cannibalism and kinslaying when they had a bankers strike\default on debts

you plum. What I want is irrelevant.

 

[happie chappie]

No, it's not aimed at you. I've no desire to single out any particular posters. Am just pissed off with the "stupid Greeks" narrative that is being dressed up as "common sense" by those with no stake in the matter.

Fair enough.

For what it's worth I've certainly never thought for one moment it's the "stupid Greeks" fault.

In fact much of the fault lies with the design of the Euro project itself. Putting the economic cart before the political horse. Allowing monetary union without fiscal union. Failing to learn the lessons of the ERM.

IIRC when Greece entered the Euro it was clear they couldn't meet the convergence criteria.

What were Jacque Delor's beancounters doing?

Did they look at the Greek's books and completely fail to spot any potential problems? Or did they know but decided to turn a blind eye because there was an underlying political pressure to get as many countries signed up to the Euro as quickly as possible.

Neither scenario is a good one. But as the former would involve incompetence on an epic scale I suspect it was the latter, aided and abetted by a thoroughly corrupt Greek government who saw the Euro as a convenient solution to their economic woes.

 

[kebabking]

yeah ireland and argentina turned to cannibalism and kinslaying when they had a bankers strike\default on debts

you plum. What I want is irrelevant.

Argentina and Ireland produce a greater proportion of what they need, and have a greater quantity of commodities to sell - both however were very hard hit, and Argentina is still having its assets frozen by overseas courts at the behest of its creditors. Greece is not - by simple geography and geology - so fortunate.

what you wanted seemed quite important in all you 'ha ha, they've stuck it to the fucking EU/IMF bastards' posts you've been making over the last few days, i didn't see anything written about any concerns you had about access to foreign produced medicines, fuel oil, or food, nor whether the vitriol going back and forth between Athens and Berlin would have any impact on the second largest contingent of overseas tourists to Greece and the Euros they bring.

perhaps i missed such posts...

 

[gosub]

why can't they just invent more numbers, like they did with, oh I don't know, every country in the western world when they fell over and shat themselves. Capitalist wankers. Bail out every rich fucker but when we ask for some relief its suddenly not possible and childish to even consider it

Coz they are in the EUro, and Germany had a strong say in ensuring that can't be done legally. Germans remember the stories their grandparents told them about getting wheelbarrows nicked

 

[DotCommunist]

Argentina and Ireland produce a greater proportion of what they need, and have a greater quantity of commodities to sell - both however were very hard hit, and Argentina is still having its assets frozen by overseas courts at the behest of its creditors. Greece is not - by simple geography and geology - so fortunate.

what you wanted seemed quite important in all you 'ha ha, they've stuck it to the fucking EU/IMF bastards' posts you've been making over the last few days, i didn't see anything written about any concerns you had about access to foreign produced medicines, fuel oil, or food, nor whether the vitriol going back and forth between Athens and Berlin would have any impact on the second largest contingent of overseas tourists to Greece and the Euros they bring.

perhaps i missed such posts...

plum, what I want is irrelevant to what actually happens

thing is, it was either more murder or this attempt. They made the attempt and it looks to have shook the troika. Suck it up

 

[DotCommunist]

oh and greece controls on of the worlds main shipping lanes which you won't care about cos you fly chinook

 

[hash tag]

I feel really sorry for them and if their financial problems aren't bad enough, they have an influx of refugees to deal with.
As for holidaying there, if you have one booked, go, they could certainly do with every last Euro they can get their hands on right now

 

[agricola]

Argentina and Ireland produce a greater proportion of what they need, and have a greater quantity of commodities to sell - both however were very hard hit, and Argentina is still having its assets frozen by overseas courts at the behest of its creditors. Greece is not - by simple geography and geology - so fortunate.

TBH thats more likely to help Greece than hinder it, when it comes to economic recovery.

 

[not-bono-ever]

.

 

[J Ed]

i didn't see anything written about any concerns you had about access to foreign produced medicines, fuel oil, or food, nor whether the vitriol going back and forth between Athens and Berlin would have any impact on the second largest contingent of overseas tourists to Greece and the Euros they bring.

Can you please direct me to your post on the spate of suicides, medical crises and impoverishment of the Greek population all caused by austerity measures imposed by people who knew that they would cause all of those things and ensure that the Greek economy would contract and make the debt unsustainable.

 

[yield]

Zizek on the situation

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/Slavoj-Zizek-greece-chance-europe-awaken

Surprisingly lucid piece by Zizek there

Imagine a vicious teacher who gives to his pupils impossible tasks, and then sadistically jeers when he sees their anxiety and panic. The true goal of lending money to the debtor is not to get the debt reimbursed with a profit, but the indefinite continuation of the debt that keeps the debtor in permanent dependency and subordination. For most of the debtors, for there are debtors and debtors. Not only Greece but also the US will not be able even theoretically to repay its debt, as it is now publicly recognised. So there are debtors who can blackmail their creditors because they cannot be allowed to fail (big banks), debtors who can control the conditions of their repayment (US government), and, finally, debtors who can be pushed around and humiliated (Greece).

What is US government debt now? QE, Federal & State debt plus Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

 

[pocketscience]

i doubt they do - i wouldn't - however the feeling in Germany appears to be that further support to Greece just increases the pile of money they'll never get back. thats the crux, they just don't believe they'll ever get back either the money they're owed, or any money they supply from now on.

Germany can continue without that eye-watering sum - after all, they've not got it now, the Greeks have - Greece however, unless it can magic up a currency which you or i would exchange for aviation fuel, or wheat, or medicines, cannot continue without further EZ support. that makes negotiations very one sided.

I doubt Germany will want to inflict further pain on Greece purely as an act to penalize them as a negotiation tool. I also doubt very much Germany would even entertain the idea of a disorderly exit and throw greece to the dogs.

Its often stated that the current generation of Germans aren't responsible for the actions of their forefathers, but the current generation are well aware of how those forefathers were despised, and they don't want that either.

A planned exit would be the most likely outcome if the negotiations break down now. A carve out project with clear goals, a timeline, budget, etc would be put in place. Germans love that sort of challenge.
It could all end up quite positive