Greek elections

[Coolfonz]

So...France and Germany couldn't face bailing out their own banks as it was so unpopular in 2009/10, so they forced Greece to take loans to bail out their (French and German) banks and simultaneously demand the revamp of the Greek economy after decades of post-fascist junta looting. Of course private corporations taking financial risk - in lending money - have to be paid out by EU taxpayers.

When that failed they decided a bankrupt Greek state still inside the EU would be preferable - with their banks losing their debts presumably - to a significant debt write off.

Ideology sucks.

 

[gawkrodger]

Zizek on the situation

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/Slavoj-Zizek-greece-chance-europe-awaken

 

[MochaSoul]

So...France and Germany couldn't face bailing out their own banks as it was so unpopular in 2009/10, so they forced Greece to take loans to bail out their (French and German) banks and simultaneously demand the revamp of the Greek economy after decades of post-fascist junta looting. Of course private corporations taking financial risk - in lending money - have to be paid out by EU taxpayers.

When that failed they decided a bankrupt Greek state still inside the EU would be preferable - with their banks losing their debts presumably - to a significant debt write off.

Ideology sucks.

Youda thought that when even the Americans criticise the policies people would open their eyes... but nope.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Zizek on the situation

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/Slavoj-Zizek-greece-chance-europe-awaken

Good piece. I don't say that often about Zizek. Maybe it's a sign of the seriousness of the situation that even Zizek is being serious about it.

 

[MochaSoul]

I suppose it will be better for Europe if the write out they are refusing now costs it even more in the long run as the banks in Greece collapse and the country leaves the eurozone with an outright default rather than a restructure, innit? Along with all the signals it will send regarding democracy and, especially, the so called "democratic union".

 

[Coolfonz]

Youda thought that when even the Americans criticise the policies people would open their eyes... but nope.

And it bodes very badly for the future.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

What if they did just say fuck it, and started printing euros themselves?

Then they would get kicked out of the currency union.

 

[Dowie]

if they're going to leave anyway, might as well set the printers off before they exit....

 

[Blagsta]

That's just steve in greek.

Steve's geometry

 

[hot air baboon]

....Euclid vs Angular Merkel...

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

if they're going to leave anyway, might as well set the printers off before they exit....

They'd become a pariah state and probably face sanctions. This is a ridiculous idea. Greece have done a very good job of demonstrating their reasonableness in the face of EU intransigence. Doing a full on Zimbabwe would be utter madness.

 

[Coolfonz]

ECB will maintain ELA funding to Greek banks but...have adjusted `haircuts` will accept vs collateral - i think this (fucking idiotic way of talking) means the ECB is making its lending on stricter grounds and that may be too much for some Greek banks...i think that's right but im not sure.
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2015/html/pr150706.en.html

 

[brogdale]

Varoufakis the finance minister has gone.

 

[gosub]

ECB will maintain ELA funding to Greek banks but...have adjusted `haircuts` will accept vs collateral - i think this (fucking idiotic way of talking) means the ECB is making its lending on stricter grounds and that may be too much for some Greek banks...i think that's right but im not sure.
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2015/html/pr150706.en.html

Nope, no new money and if it all goes tits up greater % of savings get wiped out (the haircut bit)

 

[Coolfonz]

I think ECB are saying `next time we bail-in depositors`...will Greece nationalise some banks now?

 

[brogdale]

ECB will maintain ELA funding to Greek banks but...have adjusted `haircuts` will accept vs collateral - i think this (fucking idiotic way of talking) means the ECB is making its lending on stricter grounds and that may be too much for some Greek banks...i think that's right but im not sure.
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2015/html/pr150706.en.html

Yep, they just ramped up the liquidity crisis. Vindictive fuckers want those who voted wrong to suffer.

 

[hipipol]

Its is truly, a Great Leap Forward

 

[happie chappie]

ECB will maintain ELA funding to Greek banks but...have adjusted `haircuts` will accept vs collateral - i think this (fucking idiotic way of talking) means the ECB is making its lending on stricter grounds and that may be too much for some Greek banks...i think that's right but im not sure.
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2015/html/pr150706.en.html

Whether or not the ECB’s lending criteria are harsher, the Greek banks (and by implication the Greek Government) have little choice but to accept them.

To reject the amended ECB terms, whatever they are, would mean the Greek banks would literally run out of cash in a matter of days.

The consequences of that would be unthinkable.

I suspect the joy over the “No” vote will be short-lived once the Greek people realise what could await them.

 

[Coolfonz]

Nope, no new money and if it all goes tits up greater % of savings get wiped out (the haircut bit)

S'right, maintained as in maintained at the previous level. Is there any ELA left to lend?

20bn euros?

eta: no there is fuck all it appears...

 

[hipipol]

I've got the fucking helmet love, its a long time since you shagged that skinny English git, I'm Greek, Trust me

 

[Athos]

Excellent stuff but I suspect, although I don't know for sure, that if this all concludes as disastrously as it might well do, the record will show that his negotiating stance was not very well thought through or effective.

Or to put it another way - he speaks like an urbanite on a bulletin board and you don't really want that sort of attitude going into vital meetings with senior politicians and technocrats with the fate of millions in the balance.

What, precisely, do you think he did wrong? Is it the substance i.e. reflecting the clear mandate of the Greek people, or the tone he adopted in negotiations? If the latter, what do you consider would have been a better tone, and why?

 

[happie chappie]

I think ECB are saying `next time we bail-in depositors`...will Greece nationalise some banks now?

Nationalising the banks may or may not help in the long-term.

But the Greeks need actual hard cash now.

Not lines of credit, not vague promises of help from Russia, not messages of support from around the world, or anything else for that matter.

They need actual banknotes to stop a full-scale panic and the possible meltdown of civil society.

Overall I think the Eurozone would want to keep Greece inside the Euro - but not at any price and at some point they may decide to abandon Greece to its fate.

The result would be absolute chaos with the pain inflicted on the Greek people unimaginable. That alone would deter countries such as Spain and Portugal from following Greece’s path.

You can bet the Euro Finance ministers have been planning for a possible Greek exit for some time in order to protect the European economy from contagion and shore up the banking system. They have already said as much. That is their “Plan B”.

Does Greece have a Plan B and, if so, what is it?

 

[Coolfonz]

Indeed, looks like EU/ECB had their plan a and b combined and that is to make Greece default and just push them out of the euro...

Greece's plan B is the drachma...i hope Syriza have prepared for its re-instatement...

 

[happie chappie]

What, precisely, do you think he did wrong? Is it the substance i.e. reflecting the clear mandate of the Greek people, or the tone he adopted in negotiations? If the latter, what do you consider would have been a better tone, and why?

This is a difficult question to answer, not least as few people were actually party to the negotiations and those who were had a vested interest in spinning the story to suit their own political agendas.

Did Varoufakis reflect the will of the Greek people? Possibly so although the referendum question was a little opaque to say the least.

If the question has been a simple “Do you want to remain the in Euro” I suspect the result would have been very different.

I actually admire the Greek Government for the stance they have taken and I like Varoufakis.

But then I’m not on the other side of the negotiating table from him and he does seem to have rubbed quite a few people the wrong way.

Generally it’s not a good idea to call your bank manager a cunt than then go in the next morning and ask for a massive loan.

 

[DotCommunist]

mrs beeton crap, if you represent a modern nation state you go in hard and strong because if you don't you are eaten alive

 

[happie chappie]

mrs beeton crap, if you represent a modern nation state you go in hard and strong because if you don't you are eaten alive

That only works if the other side thinks your threats are credible and calculates it has more to lose than you do.

In fact it's very poor negotiating tactics. What happens if both sides adopt this approach?

 

[happie chappie]

Indeed, looks like EU/ECB had their plan a and b combined and that is to make Greece default and just push them out of the euro...

Greece's plan B is the drachma...i hope Syriza have prepared for its re-instatement...

As discussed earlier in the thread a return to the Drachma, at least in the short term, would be almost impossible. Not least because of the time it would take to print and distribute the new currency. There was a spokesperson from the Royal Mint discussing this possibility on Radio 4 recently. He said that the design, printing and distribution of a new currency could take years.

In the meantime the Greeks would be left to sink or swim.

In reality the Euro would remain the Greek currency and the Greek banks would need continued ECB support just to stop the cash machines running dry, let alone European assistance to help rebuild the Greek economy.

Even after the Drachma came into circulation those who could do so would hoard Euros and continue to use them as a medium of exchange. Euros would certainly be more likely to be accepted by businesses than Drachmas. This would leave the poorest in society having to eke out a living on a second class currency which few businesses would be willing to accept. A severe bout of Drachma hyper- inflation beckons.

I’m not sure I can recall a situation where a country has decided to move from a widely-traded hard currency as a medium of exchange back to its own original currency - especially one that could be practically worthless in a relatively short period of time.

An albeit extreme analogy would be Zimbabwe which is for all intents and purposes now a US Dollar economy as people have simply lost all faith in the local currency. The Zimbabwean Dollar is still in circulation, but is effectively toilet paper.

Now try to imagine what would happen if the situation was reversed - the Zimbabwean Central Bank announcing tomorrow that it was forcibly converting US Dollars into Zimbabwean Dollars and then using the latter as the sole national currency.

Everyone who had US Dollars, or could get hold of them, would continue to use them no matter what the Government says or does. Those who didn’t have any US Dollars (invariably the poorest sections of society) would then be forced into absolute penury.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

from the interweb

 

[DotCommunist]

That only works if the other side thinks your threats are credible and calculates it has more to lose than you do.

In fact it's very poor negotiating tactics. What happens if both sides adopt this approach?

if you've nothing to lose regardless because the terms offered are so dire? what then? roll on your belly like a dog?

or go back to your electorate and ask for mandate again, thus re enforicing your position and showing the troika up as the shits they are?

 

[jcsd]

mrs beeton crap, if you represent a modern nation state you go in hard and strong because if you don't you are eaten alive

I'd agree that previous Greek governments should've been stronger in negotiations: they should've asked for debt reduction and better structured debts they should've been wary about the conversion of debts to banks being converted to debts to governments which politicized debt reduction. Even Syriza has failed in this respect, the caught up fighting the red herring of austerity/reforms when focusing on significant debt reduction was more important.

However insulting and antagonizing the people on the other side of the negotiating table doesn't really work when they hold all the cards both sides know it.