Greek elections

[butchersapron]

I'd agree that previous Greek governments should've been stronger in negotiations: they should've asked for debt reduction and better structured debts they should've been wary about the conversion of debts to banks being converted to debts to governments which politicized debt reduction. Even Syriza has failed in this respect, the caught up fighting the red herring of austerity/reforms when focusing on significant debt reduction was more important.

However insulting and antagonizing the people on the other side of the negotiating table doesn't really work when they hold all the cards both sides know it.

What do you see as the difference between the bolded bits?

 

[Fez909]

I’m not sure I can recall a situation where a country has decided to move from a widely-traded hard currency as a medium of exchange back to its own original currency - especially one that could be practically worthless in a relatively short period of time.

An albeit extreme analogy would be Zimbabwe which is for all intents and purposes now a US Dollar economy as people have simply lost all faith in the local currency. The Zimbabwean Dollar is still in circulation, but is effectively toilet paper.

Now try to imagine what would happen if the situation was reversed - the Zimbabwean Central Bank announcing tomorrow that it was forcibly converting US Dollars into Zimbabwean Dollars and then using the latter as the sole national currency.

Everyone who had US Dollars, or could get hold of them, would continue to use them no matter what the Government says or does. Those who didn’t have any US Dollars (invariably the poorest sections of society) would then be forced into absolute penury.

Cuba is the closest example I can think of: CUC

By pegging it to the dollar, they avoided the claims of it being worthless, and having an authoritarian one-party state to enforce it won't have done it much harm either. The Drachma being pegged to the Euro would defeat the object, and I hope for their sake they don't end up with another authoritarian government.

 

[jcsd]

What do you see as the difference between the bolded bits?

Austerity/reforms are focused on how much the government takes in vs how much it pays out and how exactly the surplus that Greece needs to reduce its debt by paying it back is achieved, whereas debt reduction is reducing the total amount that Greece needs to pay back by agreement with its creditors.

The Greek government has a much stronger case to make by focusing on the blindingly obvious fact that it can't pay back its debt rather than arguing about precisely what reforms are needed.

 

[butchersapron]

You see no connection between the two things that you've identified? Or between their winning the referendum by such a margin and addressing the 'red herring of austerity'

 

[weltweit]

... There was a spokesperson from the Royal Mint discussing this possibility on Radio 4 recently. He said that the design, printing and distribution of a new currency could take years. ...

I wonder how long it would take if Greece's mint(s) had kept the tooling for their pre Euro currency?

 

[happie chappie]

if you've nothing to lose regardless because the terms offered are so dire? what then? roll on your belly like a dog?

or go back to your electorate and ask for mandate again, thus re enforicing your position and showing the troika up as the shits they are?

If your bargaining strategy is just shouting and banging the table then after a while people just stop listening.

In any case Varoufakis has now gone, suggesting the Greek Government’s negotiating posture may be about to be change.

 

[treelover]

Its is truly, a Great Leap Forward

is that a PD member on the rocket?

 

[hipipol]

is that a PD member on the rocket?

to be fair, have no examined it in enough detail...
Can I come back to you on that?

 

[jcsd]

You see no connection between the two things that you've identified? Or between their winning the referendum by such a margin and addressing the 'red herring of austerity'

I'm not denying there's a connection - of course there is a strong connection, but unfortunately it mostly works the other way, i.e. it's easier to persuade your creditors to reduce the debt to a manageable level if you're reforming your economy in a way that can persuade them that a similar situation won't arise in the future. As I also said though the politicizing of the debts in places in other Eurozone countries by governments buying the debts from banks hasn't helped as it's made debt reduction much harder than it should be. When the Greek economy took a turn for the worse it should've been the banks who risked their capital by lending to it that lost money, as it would've been in the normal course of things had Greece been outside of the Eurozone.

 

[butchersapron]

I'm not denying there's a connection - of course there is a strong connection, but unfortunately it mostly works the other way, i.e. it's easier to persuade your creditors to reduce the debt to a manageable level if you're reforming your economy in a way that can persuade them that a similar situation won't arise in the future. As I also said though the politicizing of the debts in places in other Eurozone countries by governments buying the debts from banks hasn't helped as it's made debt reduction much harder than it should be. When the Greek economy took a turn for the worse it should've been the banks who risked their capital by lending to it that lost money, as it would've been in the normal course of things had Greece been outside of the Eurozone.

That looks like they are one and the same thing then - politically and economically.

 

[Treacle Toes]

I've got the fucking helmet love, its a long time since you shagged that skinny English git, I'm Greek, Trust me

?

 

[hipipol]

what really saddens me is these guys, the current greek govt are almost as big a bunch of liars and manipulators as the scum that preceded them
hard to believe, but that's what it is

 

[hipipol]

?

why should that confuse you?
Man gets helmet, woman trusts her man
AS backward as it looks

 

[Ming]

....Euclid vs Angular Merkel...

(groan!)

 

[NoXion]

what really saddens me is these guys, the current greek govt are almost as big a bunch of liars and manipulators as the scum that preceded them
hard to believe, but that's what it is

Did I miss something?

 

[jcsd]

That looks like they are one and the same thing then - politically and economically.

I can't agree with that, debt reduction and austerity are both political hot potatoes, but both more and less austerity moves Greece away from the light at the end of the tunnel that the average Greek wants to see if there is no debt reduction, whereas debt reduction always makes the light at the end of the tunnel nearer.

 

[Treacle Toes]

why should that confuse you?
Man gets helmet, woman trusts her man
AS backward as it looks

You comment confused me.

Man rides motor bike so has a helmet. Woman decides to be a passenger but doesn't have one, probably because it wasn't a planned ride. Yet you imagined something altogether different.

 

[Ming]

Just to be serious for a second. Could set an important precedent. If Greece successfully sticks two fingers up to the IMF it'll fuck up the neo-liberal thing. No more TINA.

 

[jcsd]

You comment confused me.

Man rides motor bike so has a helmet. Woman decides to be a passenger but doesn't have one, probably because it wasn't a planned ride. Yet you imagined something altogether different.

You could be sure if it was Jarvis Cocker riding the bike he would keep a spare helmet on hand for any potential passenger. She missed a trick there.

 

[happie chappie]

I wonder how long it would take if Greece's mint(s) had kept the tooling for their pre Euro currency?

Probably longer than it would take for the Greek economy to implode.

Basically Greece is relying on the ECB to provide liquidity. Without it the banks remain closed, the economy would grind to a halt and panic would quickly ensue.

It’s suggested ECB will only continue to provide liquidity with the agreement of the Eurozone Finance Ministers. If they decide to pull the plug then Greece is even more fucked that it is now.

I think there’s a danger of overplaying the importance of the referendum vote. Mandate or no mandate the cards are beginning to stack up in favour of the Eurozone and against the Greeks.

The Eurozone has been planning for a Greek exit for some time and has said so publically that it’s confident the European financial system is robust enough to withstand a Grexit

Of course this could be another big bluff amid a game of high stakes bluffs but I probably wouldn’t want to take the chance on it being so.

 

[jcsd]

You could be sure if it was Jarvis Cocker riding the bike he would keep a spare helmet on hand for any potential passenger. She missed a trick there.

Or Wolf Schäuble for that matter.

 

[happie chappie]

Just to be serious for a second. Could set an important precedent. If Greece successfully sticks two fingers up to the IMF it'll fuck up the neo-liberal thing. No more TINA.

I think some of this is based on wishful thinking. In a trial of strength between the IMF and an effectively bankrupt Greece relying on life-support from the ECB there’s only going to be one winner and it won’t be the Greeks.

The Troika is in a position to inflict far more pain on Greece than Greece is on the Eurozone.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think some of this is based on wishful thinking. In a trial of strength between the IMF and an effectively bankrupt Greece relying on life-support from the ECB there’s only going to be one winner and it won’t be the Greeks.

The Troika is in a position to inflict far more pain on Greece than Greece is on the Eurozone.

so you don't think the hundred billion euros the greeks owe will weigh in people's considerations. 100bn euros is a fuck of a lot of pain.

 

[jcsd]

The Eurozone has been planning for a Greek exit for some time and has said so publically that it’s confident the European financial system is robust enough to withstand a Grexit

Of course this could be another big bluff amid a game of high stakes bluffs but I probably wouldn’t want to take the chance on it being so.

It could cope, but it would cost the Eurozone plenty. The Bundesbank head has already said that it would blow a hole in the German budget and there would be less clear future implications should another country approach a similar situation.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

is that a PD member on the rocket?

It looks like Mao to me.

 

[Ming]

I think some of this is based on wishful thinking. In a trial of strength between the IMF and an effectively bankrupt Greece relying on life-support from the ECB there’s only going to be one winner and it won’t be the Greeks.

The Troika is in a position to inflict far more pain on Greece than Greece is on the Eurozone.

It won't be easy and i'm lucky I'm not Greek. But what's the alternative? IMF structural adjustment programs for all? It's depressingly ironic that this is happening in the birthplace of democracy.

 

[happie chappie]

so you don't think the hundred billion euros the greeks owe will weigh in people's considerations. 100bn euros is a fuck of a lot of pain.

Certainly is a lot of pain and I wouldn't want to pick up the tab. But if the worst came to the worst the bill could be shared amongst a number of nations. The Greeks have no-one to share their pain with.

 

[Pickman's model]

Certainly is a lot of pain and I wouldn't want to pick up the tab. But if the worst came to the worst the bill could be shared amongst a number of nations. The Greeks have no-one to share their pain with.

no, i'm talking about the 100bn euros the greeks owe other countries

 

[kebabking]

if you've nothing to lose regardless because the terms offered are so dire? what then? roll on your belly like a dog?...

if you think Greece has nothing to lose you've listening to shrills on the internet too long.

Greece has (for example) a tourism industry that accounts for around 16% of all employment in Greece, around 18% of its GDP and puts around €25billion in its coffers every year. if Greece either stagnates in a cashless banking crises, or leaves the EZ and uses a worthless currency that no one outside of Greece will accept in return for goods or services, then it won't be able to do simple things like buy food for tourists to eat in hotels, or buy aviation fuel to refuel the tourist flights, or buy petrol for taxi's and buses.

Greece grows around 40% of the food it consumes, and it has a handful of oil fields that produce a fraction of its needs - it is entirely dependent on imports like this to remain a destination for anyone other than the kind of people who holiday in North Korea - without a currency that people with those commodities will accept then this country with nothing to lose will lose an awful lot more.

theres always a worse, and it can get a lot worse.

 

[not-bono-ever]

I wonder how long it would take if Greece's mint(s) had kept the tooling for their pre Euro currency?

Greece have had active / discreet discussions with De La Rue in the past year, I do know that. I do not however have any more detials about whaT