Greek elections

[belboid]

I understood gosub to be talking about now and the immediate future, not the past. They are where they are. Tsipras has pushed it to the point where troika relief about someone more compliant taking over could lead to a softening of their stance, with concessions offered that are not on offer to the current government.

As a theory it's plausible, possibly even likely given changed circumstances that will have become evident by the time someone else is in place.

If I was Greek, and had some clue as to the personalities who might fill the role, it's something I'd have in mind, even though I'd vote with Syriza.

come on, who would take over? No one in Syriza would get as better deal. So are you saying they should allow an elected government to be overthrown? Which is what we are talking about, and what the troika want.

 

[belboid]

so whats he going on tv for then?

I'm afraid he neglected to tell me in our morning briefing

 

[gosub]

Well, there are Greek politicians who would be willing to take on the unsustainable debt but the Greek people have not elected those people no matter how much the EU wishes they had.

Well a few days yet to work out what the referendum is actually about, what it can't be is If enough of you say you believe in fairies, your savings will be safe, we will still be in the euro, and I Mr Tspiras will be in a strong position to get a better deal from our creditors than the one we rejected.

 

[ska invita]

Hmmmm

google translate

Correct considers one in two (50%) the choice of Alexis Tsipras to resort to referendum, while about the same percentage (51%) in the total population say they will support the government's proposal by voting 'no' to the proposal of institutions. This proportion decreased dramatically after the announcement to close the banks (from 57% to 46%). The vast majority of respondents (86%) intend to go to the polls, intent demonstrates the high interest of citizens to the stakes of the negotiations.
Click the table to see the enlarged |

38% of citizens characterizing wrong option recourse to referendum, 7% "neither right nor wrong" while 5% said "do not know / no answer". In the total population, 34% choose "yes" and 15% said "D.X / DA." It will not go to the polls 8%, while 6% say "D.X / DA." To those who declare intention to vote 54% would vote 'no', 33% 'yes' and 13% answered "D.X / DA."
It is clear that the closure of banks intercepts a dynamic in favor of the "no" and strengthens the position of "yes". Prior to the closure of banks "no" supported 57% and "yes" 30%, following the closure of banks "no" drops to 46% and "yes" rises to 37%. The fact therefore that the bank holiday and the capital control will play a very important role in the final choice of the citizens.
Depending on their partisan positioning, based on the vote of January 2015, the voters of Syriza say 77% "no" and 15% "yes". In the other parties respectively: in ND 65% 'yes' and 22% 'no' River 68% "yes" and 21% "no," the KKE 57% "no" and 20% "yes" to AN.ELL. 60% "no" and 31% "yes", PASOK 65% "yes" and 21% "no" and the Golden Dawn 80% "no" and 20% "yes".

By age class, young people 18-34 years holding the lead in the "no" by 57%. Below are 35-54 years by 53% and the 55+ with 43%. In the "yes" preceded by 55+ 40%. On the educational level, in favor of the "no" calls for 53% of high school graduates, 51% of those who have finished Universities / TEI & higher educational institution followed by 50% primary - secondary and 43% post-secondary-technical education. In the "yes" preceded by post-secondary-technical education (37%).

By occupational category, entrepreneurs choose 33% "yes" and 46% "no" employees in the private sector 37% and 50%, public sector wage earners 29% and 56%, pensioners in the private sector 41% and 45% Pensioners of the State 43% and 46%, professionals, 32% and 52%, the unemployed 23% and 62% and housewives 34% and 41%.

Regarding what is the choice they have made, the devotees of the "yes" is as follows:
"My feelings for my country," 21% "my view of Greece's participation in the EU" 64%, "my opinion on this proposal for an agreement" 5% "my opinion on the government Tsipras '4%' something else '4%' D.X / DA "2%.
Similarly, followers of the "no":

"My feelings for my country" 41%, "my view of Greece's participation in the EU" 14% "My view on this proposal for an agreement" 28%, "my opinion on the government Tsipras '10%' something else '4%' D.X / DA "3%.

RESEARCH PROFILE
Assignment Authority: ProRata A.E. Public Opinion Research Company and Applications Communications Type and method: Quantitative telephone survey interviewed using a structured questionnaire Population: General population over 18 years Geographical Coverage: whole territory Population: 1,200 questionnaires Weighting: Regarding gender and age sampling method: Stratified sampling (with proportional representation of urban and rural areas) Tracking Error: Maximum +/- 2.8% at a 95% Date: 28-30 June 2015 Personal research: 14 researchers and 2 supervisors

 

[ska invita]

dp

 

[brogdale]

Call the Colonels...

 

[kebabking]

To cancel the referendum?

dunno - could he be cancelling it before the Greek courts do it for him?

the Germans have fucked him off into the long grass, they've not even read his new proposal and are quoted as saying he's not trustworthy - if Greece is literally running out of money today and tommorow, and this referendum looks like its on flakey ground and might not be able to take place in anything like the timescale required, might they actually be crashing out of the Euro today?

 

[gosub]

Well a few days yet to work out what the referendum is actually about, what it can't be is If enough of you say you believe in fairies, your savings will be safe, we will still be in the euro, and I Mr Tspiras will be in a strong position to get a better deal from our creditors than the one we rejected.

Actually it could be that, if Tspiras says he will lead the Yes campaign in support of his new 'agreement' that hasn't been agreed

 

[J Ed]

Call the Colonels...

There does seem to be a very concerted effort on the part of the EU to try and reduce everything to Tspiras as a hate figure.

 

[kebabking]

could the precise wording of this be interesting?

01-Jul-2015 11:55:18 - EU’S DOMBROVSKIS SAYS EU STANDS BY GREEK PEOPLE AND DOORS TO NEGOTIATIONS OPEN

Greek people, not - you'll notice - Greek Government....

 

[newbie]

come on, who would take over? No one in Syriza would get as better deal. So are you saying they should allow an elected government to be overthrown? Which is what we are talking about, and what the troika want.

you don't know that- if these were British politicians we could discuss it properly, but not from this distance.

This is going to play itself out over days and weeks, Syriza might tear itself apart, any of the key players might resign or suffer a (political) coup, whatever, there's plenty of scope for new bums on seats. It's a political crisis, it's silly to really rule out any possibility, one of the more credible of which is that a new compliant government would be rewarded with concessions.

As for "they should allow an elected government to be overthrown" I don't think a military coup is on the cards, but frankly, anything is possible. They had one in Egypt to save the state from the government or somesuch. Unlikely but can't be ruled out, especially if Greece is forced out of the Euro and EU institutions but not NATO.

 

[belboid]

dunno - could he be cancelling it before the Greek courts do it for him?

the Germans have fucked him off into the long grass, they've not even read his new proposal and are quoted as saying he's not trustworthy - if Greece is literally running out of money today and tommorow, and this referendum looks like its on flakey ground and might not be able to take place in anything like the timescale required, might they actually be crashing out of the Euro today?

No. And no.

 

[belboid]

you don't know that- if these were British politicians we could discuss it properly, but not from this distance.

This is going to play itself out over days and weeks, Syriza might tear itself apart, any of the key players might resign or suffer a (political) coup, whatever, there's plenty of scope for new bums on seats. It's a political crisis, it's silly to really rule out any possibility, one of the more credible of which is that a new compliant government would be rewarded with concessions.

As for "they should allow an elected government to be overthrown" I don't think a military coup is on the cards, but frankly, anything is possible. They had one in Egypt to save the state from the government or somesuch. Unlikely but can't be ruled out, especially if Greece is forced out of the Euro and EU institutions but not NATO.

We can rule lots of things out. An EU collapse, a military coup, anyone else holding Syriza together as leader.

If Tsipras goes, the government will fall. A new, EU placating, government coming in might get a few more euro's immediately, but only at a far far bigger cost mid and long term.

It is the EU's plan to overthrow Syriza, not the Colonels

 

[belboid]

Die Linke dudes at least seem to be giving some to Merkel in the German parliament

 

[newbie]

We can rule lots of things out. An EU collapse, a military coup, anyone else holding Syriza together as leader.

do you do lottery numbers?

If Tsipras goes, the government will fall. A new, EU placating, government coming in might get a few more euro's immediately, but only at a far far bigger cost mid and long term.

quite so. Those are the sort of concessions we're discussing and that's why I'd vote against the EU.

 

[treelover]

Seriously!

I'm not surprised , though I think a fair bit will be from the large Greek diaspora, we need an Aid For Greece campaign, asap.

 

[treelover]

come on, who would take over? No one in Syriza would get as better deal. So are you saying they should allow an elected government to be overthrown? Which is what we are talking about, and what the troika want.

The West has history here, Churchill in 45.

 

[belboid]

do you do lottery numbers?

There will be six of them.

 

[articul8]

The KKE are apparently calling on its supporters to spoil their ballots. Madness if true

 

[MochaSoul]

The KKE are apparently calling on its supporters to spoil their ballots. Madness if true

Twits!

 

[CNT36]

I'm not surprised , though I think a fair bit will be from the large Greek diaspora, we need an Aid For Greece campaign, asap.

There's this.

A British shoe salesman who launched an online crowdfunding drive to bail out Greece has raised more than 500,000 euros in two days.

Thom Feeney, 29, of London, hopes to raise the money for Greece to meet its IMF debt repayment.

His campaign, on crowdfunding website IndieGogo, caused such "overwhelming worldwide interest" that it caused the site to crash in a day, the site told the AFP news agency.

 

[treelover]

It says on Indiegogo, that if they don't make the sum agreed, which would be impossible, all pledges are refundable, he picked the wrong site, the money should be now given direct to the wonderful greek mutual aid charities which are doing sterling work.

 

[MochaSoul]

Twits!

The strategic amateurism of the European Left never ceases to amaze me. The Left Bloc in Portugal did something along these lines in 2011. It presented a motion of no confidence in the then government on a subject of paltry importance that paved the way for the election of the Portuguese social democrats (the equivalent of the tories here). It's just mad.

 

[CNT36]

It says on Indiegogo, that if they don't make the sum agreed, which would be impossible, all pledges are refundable, he picked the wrong site, the money should be now given direct to the wonderful greek mutual aid charities which are doing sterling work.

I thought something similar. Anyone got any links where I can donate? Payday!

 

[belboid]

The strategic amateurism of the European Left never ceases to amaze me. The Left Bloc in Portugal did something along these lines in 2011. It presented a motion of no confidence in the then government on a subject of paltry importance that paved the way for the election of the Portuguese social democrats (the equivalent of the tories here). It's just mad.

its not amateurism, its long held vicious sectarianism. They honestly believe they will be on a come back after this, everyone will flock to the real revolutionaries banner.

Antarsya feel similarly, but are at least sill calling for a No vote

 

[butchersapron]

The strategic amateurism of the European Left never ceases to amaze me. The Left Bloc in Portugal did something along these lines in 2011. It presented a motion of no confidence in the then government on a subject of paltry importance that paved the way for the election of the Portuguese social democrats (the equivalent of the tories here). It's just mad.

The KKE want to destroy Syriza - it's their strategic objective. The immediate tactical move to help achieve this is to get KKE voters (around 6% last election but i think Syriza will have taken some of that since) to print this off and put it in the ballot box. It puts them against austerity but not part of any possible 'sell-out'. Perfectly rational and sensible for them given their aims i think. It's madness in reality.

 

[MochaSoul]

its not amateurism, its long held vicious sectarianism.

I agree with the gist of your post but I don't think it's just sectarianism. The Portuguese [so called] socialist party is the equivalent of labour here. You don't dethrone Labour a year and a half into its mandate knowing the tories will get in instead. It's stupidity of the people who can't pick battles within a war because in actual truth they don't feel the pain of the war beyond their marxist texts... and the fact that it comes back to bite them in the fucking arse every time because the people at large see this kind of thing and regard them as clowns even as they agree with their actual aims and policies doesn't seem to dawn on them.

 

[MochaSoul]

It's madness in reality.

Oh! I wasn't aware they actually wanted to destroy Syriza. They are even more fucked up than the Left Bloc.

 

[DotCommunist]

Oh! I wasn't aware they actually wanted to destroy Syriza. They are even more fucked up than the Left Bloc.

when pasoks vote went down the toilet pan the KKE were (iirc) the ONLY party of the left who didn't get under syzrias broad tent. Syzrias win was actually propped up (not by much but enough) the greek equavalent of ukip.

 

[MochaSoul]

P.S. Thank you for taking the time to bring that to my attention even if the more I learn, the more I seem to miss.