Greek elections

[gosub]

a very silly position, especially considering the EU have never been negotiating in 'good faith'

Having at any earlier would simply have meant (especially to those who were already and always going to see Syriza as the culprit) that they would be portrayed as not negotiating seriously at all. If they announced the referendum three weeks ago, to be held last sunday, odds on the EU would have stopped any negotiations there and then, Syriza wouldn't have been able to propose a deal like the one they finally did offer - which included the cuts - and they'd have been portrayed as being simply desperate to pull out of the EU.

This isnt just about economics, dont forget, Merkel et al want to do their utmost to destroy Syriza and everything they stand for.

Apart from Juncker lying his arse off yesterday about there being no call to cut pensions, the majority of EU bad faith has been largely the utter intractability of their position, a small discount on hotel taxes seems to have been the change. What signals were the Greeks misreading that they were getting somewhere? They rightly state the need to take the people with them, but if he believed that the beginning, it would have come up before attempting to use it to kick the can. As it is, deadlines will be gone tonight, and on Sunday the people of Greece have a vote that can't be about what it says its about.

 

[MochaSoul]

Another Yes voter tells Phoebe Greenwood that she is very fearful of the impact of a No results on Sunday.

As well as the economic impact of leaving the EU, she worries that “non-democratic processes” could take hold in Greece:

It’s only in the European Union that legal democratic processes are guaranteed.

 

[butchersapron]

if anyone is watching this bbc news trash at at 10 with peston saying the default which is coming within an hour and repeating default default:

Why It Won’t Be a Default If Greece Misses IMF Payment Next Week


Once a nation misses a payment, IMF staff sends a cable to the country urging it to pay up “promptly,” according to a 2012 review of the fund’s strategy on overdue payments. The nation is also ineligible for further bailout money until the arrears are cleared.

Two weeks after a missed payment, management contacts the country’s IMF governor -- usually the central bank chief or finance minister -- to stress the seriousness of the matter and urge “full and prompt settlement.”

One month in, Managing Director Christine Lagarde notifies the fund’s executive board that the payment has been missed. After three months, the fund posts a “brief factual statement” noting the arrears on its public website.

Within two years after a missed payment, the fund could initiate plans to force Greece out of the IMF’s membership.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

lol sounds like when you get those FINAL DEMAND then FINAL DEMAND letters

 

[J Ed]

lol I like to imagine that there is an IMF call centre collections department

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

In ten years time the PM of Macedonia will get a letter from "Bridgehouse Collections" offering to settle if only he will ring

 

[rekil]

There's always that element that says countries should be run "like a business".

 

[not-bono-ever]

if anyone is watching this bbc news trash at at 10 with peston saying the default which is coming within an hour and repeating default default:

Why It Won’t Be a Default If Greece Misses IMF Payment Next Week


Once a nation misses a payment, IMF staff sends a cable to the country urging it to pay up “promptly,” according to a 2012 review of the fund’s strategy on overdue payments. The nation is also ineligible for further bailout money until the arrears are cleared.

Two weeks after a missed payment, management contacts the country’s IMF governor -- usually the central bank chief or finance minister -- to stress the seriousness of the matter and urge “full and prompt settlement.”

One month in, Managing Director Christine Lagarde notifies the fund’s executive board that the payment has been missed. After three months, the fund posts a “brief factual statement” noting the arrears on its public website.

Within two years after a missed payment, the fund could initiate plans to force Greece out of the IMF’s membership.

Innit- its sloppy and lazy - Think I touched on it earlier- not a default if a soveriegn state is late

 

[Sunray]

Um, it's not the IMF that calls on the default, its external, the ratings agencies like Moody's or Fitch. Its these places that rates countries and if they think not paying the IMF back is default, they will rate it very lowly. Fitch has changed their credit rating already, https://www.fitchratings.com/site/fitch-home/pressrelease?id=987243 rating Greece as CC, the same as Argentina. They are saying its not really a default, but rating it so lowly has made it too expensive to borrow any money from international markets.

 

[MochaSoul]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/opinion/paul-krugman-greece-over-the-brink.html?src=me&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Most Emailed&pgtype=article
Paul Krugman:

This is, and presumably was intended to be, an offer Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, can’t accept, because it would destroy his political reason for being. The purpose must therefore be to drive him from office, which will probably happen if Greek voters fear confrontation with the troika enough to vote yes next week.

But they shouldn’t, for three reasons. First, we now know that ever-harsher austerity is a dead end: after five years Greece is in worse shape than ever. Second, much and perhaps most of the feared chaos from Grexit has already happened. With banks closed and capital controls imposed, there’s not that much more damage to be done.

Finally, acceding to the troika’s ultimatum would represent the final abandonment of any pretense of Greek independence. Don’t be taken in by claims that troika officials are just technocrats explaining to the ignorant Greeks what must be done. These supposed technocrats are in fact fantasists who have disregarded everything we know about macroeconomics, and have been wrong every step of the way. This isn’t about analysis, it’s about power — the power of the creditors to pull the plug on the Greek economy, which persists as long as euro exit is considered unthinkable.

So it’s time to put an end to this unthinkability. Otherwise Greece will face endless austerity, and a depression with no hint of an end.

 

[belboid]

And, again, the IMF admit that austerity won't work, not even in their own terms, and with the best results plausible: http://www.theguardian.com/business...sis-says-significant-concessions-still-needed

 

[not-bono-ever]

Um, it's not the IMF that calls on the default, its external, the ratings agencies like Moody's or Fitch. Its these places that rates countries and if they think not paying the IMF back is default, they will rate it very lowly. Fitch has changed their credit rating already, https://www.fitchratings.com/site/fitch-home/pressrelease?id=987243 rating Greece as CC, the same as Argentina. They are saying its not really a default, but rating it so lowly has made it too expensive to borrow any money from international markets.

This true- the headlines suggest that the IMF will be sending in the bailiffs nest day, but this is clearly not the case as Butchers described. The IMF are not there to bankrupt countries- they are playing a longer game.not connected, but sorta - I read an interestinga article on the contemporary pre revolution issues Cuban bond market the other day- yes, people do still buy and sell this paper on the off chance that they may make good one day

 

[not-bono-ever]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/opinion/paul-krugman-greece-over-the-brink.html?src=me&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Most Emailed&pgtype=article
Paul Krugman:

What is required here is a subservient client state in Greece, so its geopolit location can be utilised to the ends required- a poor but workable greek setup is more preferable to a rogue bankrupt ex EU state, scrabbling for support from outsiders

 

[MochaSoul]

This true- the headlines suggest that the IMF will be sending in the bailiffs nest day, but this is clearly not the case as Butchers described. The IMF are not there to bankrupt countries- they are playing a longer game.not connected, but sorta - I read an interestinga article on the contemporary pre revolution issues Cuban bond market the other day- yes, people do still buy and sell this paper on the off chance that they may make good one day

I rather think that confusion is needed to frighten a whole people into compliance. I feel sad, I'm this cynical, but there I am.

 

[agricola]

And, again, the IMF admit that austerity won't work, not even in their own terms, and with the best results plausible: http://www.theguardian.com/business...sis-says-significant-concessions-still-needed

Well exactly, though it should be pointed out that "austerity" in this instance means the diktats of the troika who - as Krugman says in that article MochaSoul linked to - "have been wrong every step of the way".

 

[not-bono-ever]

its wonga on a global scale- virtually impossible to clear unless you win the lottery

 

[MochaSoul]

its wonga on a global scale- virtually impossible to clear unless you win the lottery

A crowdfunding site was trying to raise the Eu1.6bn for the Greeks. It crashed at Eu 230 000, I think.

 

[ddraig]

in 7 days!

 

[MochaSoul]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/30/briton-crowdfunding-campaign-greece-debt-thom-feeney

 

[MochaSoul]

in 7 days!

As of Tuesday afternoon more than €250,000 (£177,000) had been pledged from almost 15,000 people, or around 0.01% of the total amount.
Indiegogo, the crowdfunding site which is hosting the campaign, went offline on Tuesday, perhaps creaking under the weight of generous donors coming to Greece’s aid. The page has so far been shared 97,000 times on Facebook and had more than 20,000 shares on Twitter.

Seriously!

 

[pocketscience]

Um, it's not the IMF that calls on the default, its external, the ratings agencies like Moody's or Fitch. Its these places that rates countries and if they think not paying the IMF back is default, they will rate it very lowly. Fitch has changed their credit rating already, https://www.fitchratings.com/site/fitch-home/pressrelease?id=987243 rating Greece as CC, the same as Argentina. They are saying its not really a default, but rating it so lowly has made it too expensive to borrow any money from international markets.

What does this mean in real terms for the people. Do the banks and ATMs run dry of any physical money now?

 

[belboid]

What does this mean in real terms for the people. Do the banks and ATMs run dry of any physical money now?

the real shit won't (potentially) happen until July 20th - which is when they need to pay the ECB. Then they (the ECB) will withdraw any bank support and they'll run dry.

 

[Kaka Tim]

In ten years time the PM of Macedonia will get a letter from "Bridgehouse Collections" offering to settle if only he will ring

"Hello. Could I speak to mr greece please?"

"No. sorry - he doesn't live here anymore. bye"

 

[kebabking]

What does this mean in real terms for the people. Do the banks and ATMs run dry of any physical money now?

they appear to be, though whether that is a logistics issue of getting money from storage to the ATM's in umpteen thousand locations, or the Greek banking system actually running out of money is something i don't know - and something i rather doubt either the Greek Central Bank or the Greek Government would like to provide exhaustive detail on.

BBC's Katya Adler is suggesting that Sundays referendum may not go ahead because the logistics of 9m ballot papers, counters, returning officers etc.. just isn't going to be in place, and then that if it were to go ahead, the result would be subject to significant legal challenge because the practicalities of the vote fell well outside those required by the Greek constitution. another issue that she highlighted (see below for caveats..) is that Greeks vote in referenda at the district of birth, not where they live, and if you can only take out €60 per day...

not being a Greek constitutional lawyer i can't make an informed judgement on the validity or not of that view....

 

[gosub]

What does this mean in real terms for the people. Do the banks and ATMs run dry of any physical money now?

Closed door meeting at ECB at moment to discuss it, those members advocating pulling it have a legal case.

 

[Sunray]

they appear to be, whether that is a logistics issue of getting money from storage to the ATM's in umpteen thousand locations, or the Greek banking system actually running out of money is something i don't know - and something i rather doubt either the Greek Central Bank or the Greek Government would like to provide exhaustive detail on.

I think that in this situation, the amount of physical currency in circulation is far more than the country would expect, physical currency is a fraction of the total amount of money in the system. The Greeks may well have run the store of notes dry.

 

[not-bono-ever]

It does not help that multinational and big boy corporates are dumping their Greek earned cash offshore each night - nothing is being left in Greek banks overnight.

 

[gosub]

I think that in this situation, the amount of physical currency in circulation is far more than the country would expect, physical currency is a fraction of the total amount of money in the system. The Greeks may well have run the store of notes dry.

That will have happened last week when the run starting,, and the ECB will have been flying in containers of EUros daily to meet demand. Is what was going on in Cyprus during their capital controls

 

[Sunray]

Hmm looking like the Greeks have given in faced with a rock and a hard place.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Hmm looking like the Greeks have given in faced with a rock and a hard place.

Why do you say that? Is there some polling on the Gref?