Global financial system implosion begins

[Jessiedog]

Personally I'm thinking of moving to HK or Sing for a bit........

Give me a call, hipipol.

I'd be happy to work with (or place,) you and, if place, I'll split the placement fee with you (70%/30% - me/you).

Fair?

R-to-R's an interesting area.




Woof

 

[Jessiedog]

Can anyone access the online edition of the South China Morning Post (subscription only)?

Today's (12th Dec,) "Monitor" column by Tom Holland was nail-on-head stuff.

Please reproduce it here, if anyone can.





Read it, peeps.


To me (reading between the lines,) it says: "China - the biggest eva bubble."


Tom Holland's been churning out some really insightful stuff in the "Monitor" column for the last few weeks (daily on the back page of the Business Post, Mon - Fri).


Here we go......


It'll only be a few years now.




Woof

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

The fraud. Explained. (or a lot of it at least)

 

[gosub]

thats really about market structure surely?
Your only going to move in size if you can take the hit such a market event will provoke - or if you're Citi and you actually want to create the wave in the first place (the German Govt were not amused, and fined them several million Euros, but they were nearly 2b bucks up and dinnae gae a fuck)

Most HFT are small and really just create a froth, dont really move the market at all.
Personally I'm thinking of moving to HK or Sing for a bit........

you really should have listened to the program, in NY puney trade caused ripples, HFT only just starting here

 

[yield]

To me (reading between the lines,) it says: "China - the biggest eva bubble."


Tom Holland's been churning out some really insightful stuff in the "Monitor" column for the last few weeks (daily on the back page of the Business Post, Mon - Fri).

Looked but I can't find it. Would be good to read.

Edit:
Food Stamps Go to a Record 37.2 Million, USDA Says

A record 37.2 million people, or about one out of every eight Americans, received food stamps in September, as the recession drove a surging jobless rate, according to a government report.

1 in 8

 

[Barking_Mad]

Drug money saved banks in global crisis, claims UN advisor

Drugs and crime chief says $352bn in criminal proceeds was effectively laundered by financial institutions

Drugs money worth billions of dollars kept the financial system afloat at the height of the global crisis, the United Nations' drugs and crime tsar has told the Observer.

Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organised crime were "the only liquid investment capital" available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result.

This will raise questions about crime's influence on the economic system at times of crisis. It will also prompt further examination of the banking sector as world leaders, including Barack Obama and Gordon Brown, call for new International Monetary Fund regulations. Speaking from his office in Vienna, Costa said evidence that illegal money was being absorbed into the financial system was first drawn to his attention by intelligence agencies and prosecutors around 18 months ago. "In many instances, the money from drugs was the only liquid investment capital. In the second half of 2008, liquidity was the banking system's main problem and hence liquid capital became an important factor," he said.

Some of the evidence put before his office indicated that gang money was used to save some banks from collapse when lending seized up, he said.

"Inter-bank loans were funded by money that originated from the drugs trade and other illegal activities... There were signs that some banks were rescued that way." Costa declined to identify countries or banks that may have received any drugs money, saying that would be inappropriate because his office is supposed to address the problem, not apportion blame. But he said the money is now a part of the official system and had been effectively laundered.

"That was the moment [last year] when the system was basically paralysed because of the unwillingness of banks to lend money to one another. The progressive liquidisation to the system and the progressive improvement by some banks of their share values [has meant that] the problem [of illegal money] has become much less serious than it was," he said.

 

[teqniq]

^^
ffs! I suppose it doesn't really come as a big surprise...

 

[Jessiedog]

^^
ffs! I suppose it doesn't really come as a big surprise...

Indeed.

Costa said evidence that illegal money was being absorbed into the financial system was first drawn to his attention by intelligence agencies and prosecutors around 18 months ago.

Eighteen fucking months ago?

And you're still in charge of this shit?

After over a decade of your best efforts?

Fuck off, Antonio, you cunt!

We've been screaming at you about the US$ 400 billion, every year, being laundered through the banking system By "drug cartels" - for over a fucking decade.

Incompentent cunt - blowing in the wind, all dependendent upon the bonus/prospect ratio.

Cunt of the highest order.

What's your fucking salary? Benefits? Perks? Pension?

Cunt!






Feel the love peeps.




Woof

 

[kyser_soze]

Who's 'we've'?

 

[Jessiedog]

*ahem*

Forgive me, kyser.

Not everyone's been screaming.

Who's 'we've'?

Transform for a start (although maybe not "screaming",) and others I've read from (mostly US,) commentaries dating back to the early/mid 1990's.

I'm sure I'm not the only one that's been aware of this for at least 15 years.

I've been getting more vocal over the last decade.

Howling.

Mostly ineffectually.

The war on drugs is obscene.

More peeps recognise that these days.




Woof

 

[Dr Jon]

Get Out of Debt: Kill Yourself

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Excellent interview on Max Keiser. The recession is over, is the depression getting under way?

 

[Dr Jon]

Société Générale Predicts Global Economic Collapse In Two Years Time

 

[Crispy]

Should buy some gold then

 

[pinkmonkey]

Société Générale Predicts Global Economic Collapse In Two Years Time

I'm gonna get some gun turrets fitted to the roof of my boat and go and hide up some inlet somewhere.

 

[kyser_soze]

Société Générale Predicts Global Economic Collapse In Two Years Time

Good to see the discriminating posting of regurgitated Bank PR here.

SocGen send out an advisory to existing (and no doubt potential) customers, giving a 3 level set of possible outcomes over the next 2 years.

Only one, the one saying 'It's all completely and utterly fucked' is actually discussed in this 'article'.

Undiscriminating people link to article with misleading title, probably without reading it:

It is an exploration of the dangers, not a forecast.

Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario (the gloomiest of three possible outcomes),

 

[Dr Jon]

Undiscriminating people link to article with misleading title, probably without reading it:

Guilty as charged, m'lud

 

[A Dashing Blade]

Full SocGen report available here

 

[Falcon]

Arizona Governor Jan Brewer:"We face a state fiscal crisis of unparalleled dimension"

Many US states are going bust. Arizona is the first, amidst a sea of faux-statistics designed to manufacture an illusion of "recovery", to have reached the point where it cannot be disguised any more.

Here is the text of a letter from its Governor to Arizonans:

More than calling for cooperation, today I had state government implement various emergency measures meant to ensure Arizona’s fiscal solvency. Among them:

• I ordered the Arizona Department of Corrections to return to the custody of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) -- as soon as possible -- all non-violent criminal aliens as is allowed under existing law. These inmates are the responsibility of the federal government (as is securing our border with Mexico). Arizona should not have to bear this cost.

• I am restating my Arizonans-only directives to state agencies to ensure that public benefits are provided only to those who are legally in this country and who reside in this state.

• Effective immediately, I have ordered all state agencies who benefits to citizens to implement means testing and sliding fee schedules. While the government safety net must stay in place, we need to secure help only for the neediest among us.

A famously gun-happy State turning loose prisoners, switching off public services and withdrawing support (for border control) from the Federal government? It does have the ring of a near-future Dystopian Hollywood movie about it, doesn´t it?

The false recovery was manufactured by the Federal Government borrowing trillions. The interest repayments (on top of the loan repayments) kick in next year, while of course there has been no increase in the supply of energy and therefore of the physical production of goods and services to fund them. So more States will tip over the edge.

Merry Christmas.

 

[LLETSA]

Many US states are going bust. Arizona is the first, amidst a sea of faux-statistics designed to manufacture an illusion of "recovery", to have reached the point where it cannot be disguised any more.

Here is the text of a letter from its Governor to Arizonans:

A famously gun-happy State turning loose prisoners, switching off public services and withdrawing support (for border control) from the Federal government? It does have the ring of a near-future Dystopian Hollywood movie about it, doesn´t it?

The false recovery was manufactured by the Federal Government borrowing trillions. The interest repayments (on top of the loan repayments) kick in next year, while of course there has been no increase in the supply of energy and therefore of the physical production of goods and services to fund them. So more States will tip over the edge.

Merry Christmas.

Is Dmitry Orlov right then?

 

[ymu]

Have you guys seen the Detroit thread?

The scary post being:

Yeah its a terrible situation for the motor city that.

I remember reading that sections of it get closed off and are run by private security firms. It might be a load of rubbish but this is the article:

http://www.almartinraw.com/public/column417.html

 

[goebfwai]

Worth a read: 1) Between the lines: Beware 'Subprime: The Sequel' on its way in America & 2) Backs to wall as economy moves into survival mode by Bill Jamieson of The Scotsman. View (library subscription required) at http://www.newsuk.co.uk

 

[david dissadent]

China appears to have an upmarket property bubble growing. A very interesting article that shows alot of undercurrents, including many small factory owners going into property to make a big profit, possibly strongly indicitive of over capacity in the manufacturing sector (my own speculation; not in the article).

Millions of Chinese are pursuing property with a zeal once typical of house-happy Americans. Some Chinese are plunking down wads of cash for homes. Others are taking out mortgages at record levels. Developers are snapping up land for luxury high- rises and villas, and the banks are eagerly funding them. Some local officials are even building towns from scratch in the desert, certain that demand won’t flag. And if families can swing it, they buy two apartments: one to live in, one to flip when prices jump further.

“Once the bubble pops, our economic growth will stop,” warns Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Finance Research Center.

Economists estimate that half of all local government revenue comes from selling state-owned land.

Companies in the chemical, steel, textile, and shoe industries have started up property divisions too: The chance of a quick return is much higher than in their primary business.

But while there is chronic over capacity in the high end market it looks like the new lower middle class and working class is being ignored.

One is the anger of ordinary Chinese. In a recent survey by the People’s Bank of China, two-thirds of respondents said real estate prices were too high.

In early December five professors at Peking University wrote to the National People’s Congress calling for changes to a land seizure and demolition law and accusing developers of usurping the government’s role when taking land for construction.

The law is leading to “mass incidents” and “extreme events,” the professors warned.

And here is the rub

The government is reluctant to crack down too hard because construction, steel, cement, furniture, and other sectors are directly tied to growth in real estate. In November, for example, retail sales of furniture and construction materials jumped more than 40 percent.

The Chinese government seems stuck on a treadmill that is ever hard to stay the pace on, the need to grow the economy when there are only so many new markets in the world, when you are competing with yourself and undercutting other local manufacturers and the customers are going through an extended economic recession.
Free markets experiance irrational exuberances and command economies fall of political expediancy or ideological blindnesses, China it seems has a bit of both.

Still if they have a huge customer base in its working class if they can ever raise incomes without pricing themselves out of export markets.

 

[david dissadent]

Americas decade of zero job creation

Washington Post

There has been zero net job creation since December 1999. No previous decade going back to the 1940s had job growth of less than 20 percent. Economic output rose at its slowest rate of any decade since the 1930s as well.

Middle-income households made less in 2008, when adjusted for inflation, than they did in 1999 -- and the number is sure to have declined further during a difficult 2009. The Aughts were the first decade of falling median incomes since figures were first compiled in the 1960s.

And the net worth of American households -- the value of their houses, retirement funds and other assets minus debts -- has also declined when adjusted for inflation, compared with sharp gains in every previous decade since data were initially collected in the 1950s

It ends

The financial crisis is, for all practical purposes, over, and forecasters are now generally expecting the job market to turn around early in 2010 and begin creating jobs. The task ahead for the next generation of economists is to figure out how, in a decade that began with such economic promise, things went so wrong.

Yes but that has been underpinned by huge surges in government borrowing replacing consumer borrowing. Governments around the world are needing to cut back on spending and that means drops in employment and reduction in pay increases. What will drive growth this decade as the baby boomers need to hoard cash to retire?

 

[Wolveryeti]

What will drive growth this decade as the baby boomers need to hoard cash to retire?

Immigration.

I don't think Chinese social policy and ingrained saving habits will change quickly enough to right the trade deficit. I see the no.1 priority of the Chinese government as maintaining social order, which means preserving jobs short-term and minimising economic turmoil- at the expense of perpetuating its external imbalance.

Emigration would be a win-win because some pressure will be taken of the Chinese domestic markets, and in the West, I think it will end up the most politically palatable way of solving the healthcare/pensions black hole in public finances.

 

[elbows]

USA lost 85000 jobs in December, temporarily dashing the rather phoney hopes of easy recovery:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/08/fears-of-double-recession-us-jobs

And to illustrate the interesting relationship that economic woe has to climate change and peak oil, the USAs total number of cars in use has declined for the first time since world war 2:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/06/us-cars-sales-record-low

America's love affair with the automobile could be sputtering to an end. Some 14m cars were taken out of action in 2009, 4m more than rolled off the assembly lines and onto the roads, a report from the Earth Policy Institute said today.

 

[Shevek]

I just watched Manufacturing Consent the film about Noam Chomsky. It has hardened my views as an anarchist.

 

[david dissadent]

U.S. residential mortgage originations are expected to plummet 40 percent in 2010 to their lowest level in a decade, eclipsing a forecast drop made just one month ago, the industry's main trade group said Tuesday.

Lenders will underwrite $1.28 trillion in home loans this year, down from $2.11 trillion in 2009, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in its latest forecast. That would be the lowest since $1.14 trillion in 2000.

The forecast was downgraded from December, when the MBA predicted originations would fall about 24 percent.

Eh?

Dropping estimates 40% in one month.

Oh, they are expecting rates to climb.

a rise in interest rates from record lows would bring mortgage originations "to a pretty hard stop."

Hmmmmm

Interest rates are expected to rise when the Federal Reserve completes its pledge to support the mortgage securities market with $1.25 trillion in purchases.

CNBC
Dunno, the chances of a rates increase may be slight without a big surge in inflation.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

But then agains as others are keen to point out. I dont really know what Im talking about .

.....​

 

[A Dashing Blade]

. . .
Dunno, the chances of a rates increase may be slight without a big surge in inflation.

You don't wait for inflation to have happened before making you're first rate rise