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Global financial system implosion begins

Restructuring, of course, means launch an immediate attack on the conditions of GM workers, retired or working (and workers in general) in the interests of the hedge funds and investement firms - the famous 'bondholders'.

i.e

Len Blum, managing director at investment banking firm Westwood Capital LLC in New York, told Bloomberg News. “The only thing that’s been holding GM back is labor contracts and relationships with debtors and franchisees. All that should be cleansed in a bankruptcy.”
 
Quite possibly - already 100s of 10000s of retired GM workers have been stripped of dental and optical care for them and their dependents - and that's just the first small steps.
 
Yep Chapter 11 is like a big get out clause for however long it lasts in an attempt to turn things around. Payment terms suddenly chnage overnight, suppliers get fucked over, pensions, healthcare provisions all cut.
 
The same measures that the US and it's financial arms imposed on other states when they went bankrupt or got in trouble are now being rolled out in the US itself. Domestic peace had long been predicated on relatively high living standards, by global conditions, and cheap consumer goods and staples - even with a rise in work hours and a sustained attack on the wage meaning real wages stagnating or falling. That basis for political peace is now going to come coming under sustained attack for the first time since the 30s.
 
_42041256_wages_prod_416gr.gif


And over a longer timeframe

real_wage_productivity_gap.jpg
 
And the 30 million peeps recently laid-off in China (previously "happy" to earn US$ 35:00 per month for 70 hours of work a week in a godforsaken factory, for sake of their extended family,) have NO pensions, NO healthcare, NO redundancy pay, NO severence payment, NO optical or dental (what are they, anyway :confused: ,) and NO JOBS.


And they didn't even get paid their last three months wages, 'cos the boss told them it'd come right if only they could "chip in" and wait a bit.


What a world.


:(


Woof
 
This would be the Chinese economic miracle you've previously spent whole threads praising, or is that a completely different Chinese economic miracle?
 
This would be the Chinese economic miracle you've previously spent whole threads praising, or is that a completely different Chinese economic miracle?

The miracle is actually real, a fact - 400 million raised from abject poverty in under 30 years.

My point was regarding the 30 million recently laid off.

And the global system certainly needs attention or there will be many more peeps in the west feeling the sly grasp of poverty around their neck in the coming years.


I'm positive about China - the country is at least as well placed to deal with the next few decades as any other.


Unfortunately, I, and others, will die in the meantime.


:(


Woof
 
At least what's happened to GM is better than them simply going "conventionally" bankrupt, where everything stops, everyone loses their job, suppliers lose everything they are owed, pensions are just cancelled, and then other companies just buy the factories, machinery, designs etc and everything else just ceases to exist completely.

Giles..
 
One of America's top mortgage tycoons, Angelo Mozilo, was charged with fraud and insider dealing today for allegedly lying to investors about a toxic build-up of billions of dollars in reckless loans at his Countrywide Financial homeloans empire.

Mozilo has been widely vilified as the "sub-prime king", accused by unions and politicians of exploiting customers with predatory mortgages. Charles Schumer, a prominent Democratic senator for New York, recently suggested that Mozilo should be "boiled in oil - figuratively".

In one 2006 message to a colleague, Mozilo wrote: "The bottom line is that we are flying blind on how these loans will perform in a stressed environment of higher unemployment, reduced values and slowing home sales."

The company subsequently caused a rumpus in Congress when it emerged that several influential politicians, including the chairman of the Senate banking committee, Christopher Dodd, were given special mortgages as part of a VIP list of "friends of Angelo".

Link to Guardian.

Horses long since bolted on this.

E2A
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy likely lost another half-million jobs in May, economists say, bringing the total number of nonfarm payrolls lost in the recession to more than 6.2 million, with few signs of a recovery in the badly battered labor market.
The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 8.9% in April to 9.2% in May. It would be the highest jobless rate since 1983.
But the US figures are very badly massaged.
Millions more workers still have a job but have had their hours cut back. With unemployment rising, workers have little bargaining power with bosses over wages. Income from private-sector wages and salaries has fallen at a record 5% annual rate since October, squeezing families just as their wealth has eroded and credit is harder to obtain.

"We continue to expect the unemployment rate to rise well into 2010, peaking somewhere around 10.6%," wrote economists for Wachovia.

Link
 
The Congressionally-appointed panel overseeing the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) recommends running again the stress tests on US banks, as economic conditions have worsened, its chair, Harvard University professor Elizabeth Warren, told CNBC Tuesday.

"We actually make recommendations to do it all over again right now," Warren told "Squawk Box."

"We've already blown past the worst-case scenario on unemployment," she added.

Under the tests, whose results were released in May, the Obama administration asked federal regulators to examine how financial institutions would hold up under two different economic scenarios as well as how much new capital they would need to raise to shore up their balance sheets.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31183773

This is a very strong indicator that we are no where near the bottom of this yet. Which fool would invest money into banks too prop up their balance sheet? This looks like US tax payers are going to be on the hook for a great deal more. It certainly appears that Roubini and co (I think Krugman amoung them) are right. The US banks are going to need to be properly nationalised before we begin to turn this super tanker around.
 
No, no. Apparently the green shoots are growing all over the place, property is going to resume its permanent upward trajectory, credit lines are being loosened up, and all is well with the world. I, for one, welcome the shortest-lived catastrophic global depression in history:)
 
IMO, This s probably "The Big One" and is only just beginning.

There will be dead cat bounces, but.........

The imbalances in the global economy have become so severe that it will take years to reach bottom, and possibly decades before "the west" enjoys the standards of living taken for granted until 2006.

The "banking crisis" was the result of global economic imbalance and the ensuing global recession. And the unwinding of this financial mess, will almost certainly create a future economic and social climate unseen by most posters here and almost unconceivable, to most, in its severity.

This is the beginning.



*is always the optimist*

:)


Woof
 
No, no. Apparently the green shoots are growing all over the place, property is going to resume its permanent upward trajectory, credit lines are being loosened up, and all is well with the world. I, for one, welcome the shortest-lived catastrophic global depression in history:)


:rolleyes: We haven't had the govenments credit card bill yet
 
From the London Review of Books:

'It's Finished' by John Lanchester

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v31/n10/lanc01_.html
We are basicaly going to experiance the 1980s we never had because a) we had oil to bring in cash on foreign exchange b) London managed to retain its self as a world leading financial center through the 'big bang' deregulation and stronger pound. Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong, NY, and many other centers are keen to get in on the action and a weakening pound may see a flight of capital undermining the already weak state of the financial sector.

Though on the other hand everyone is always saying 'get out of the pound'. Ive never worked out which currency you are supposed to get into?



Gold?
 
IMO, This s probably "The Big One" and is only just beginning.

There will be dead cat bounces, but.........

The imbalances in the global economy have become so severe that it will take years to reach bottom, and possibly decades before "the west" enjoys the standards of living taken for granted until 2006.

The "banking crisis" was the result of global economic imbalance and the ensuing global recession. And the unwinding of this financial mess, will almost certainly create a future economic and social climate unseen by most posters here and almost unconceivable, to most, in its severity.

This is the beginning.



*is always the optimist*

:)


Woof
There is also the demographic changes in the west, the retirement of the babyboomers. The worlds great consumer societies will have a smaller portion of their populations buying as much. And as you say the imbalances will mean those of working age will be earning less or unemployed.


Perhaps this is why people focus on trivia like Fred the Shred and the expenses scandal, like officers in the army who are mentaly overwhelmed and start behaving like more junior officers, people are just focusing on the small details to avoid the big picture?
 
Though on the other hand everyone is always saying 'get out of the pound'. Ive never worked out which currency you are supposed to get into?
Well, quite. Even the Swiss franc is in trouble with the size of their banks. Canadian or Aus dollars I reckon. Any rich country with a shit load of minerals.
 
From the London Review of Books:

'It's Finished' by John Lanchester

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v31/n10/lanc01_.html

Excellent article, thanks.

If the global economic crisis can be reduced to one single phenomenon, it is this: the fact that nobody knows which banks are solvent.

Well, quite. Even the Swiss franc is in trouble with the size of their banks. Canadian or Aus dollars I reckon. Any rich country with a shit load of minerals.

Brazil or Canada I reckon. Australia has a lot of problems.
 
Well, quite. Even the Swiss franc is in trouble with the size of their banks. Canadian or Aus dollars I reckon. Any rich country with a shit load of minerals.
On the whole minerals are not much good if there is a world oversupply of them and mines are shutting down.

Lithium, platinum silver and gold are the only ones likely to be increasing in demand. Lithium for batteries, platenum for fuel cells, silver and gold as stores of wealth.

Norway has loads of gas so Id guess that will be allright. Longer term the Germans have the worlds best wind and solar industries. They have a very healthy trade surplus and excellent infrastructure. Actualy this goes for much of NW Europe (Denmark, Sweden and so on) other than the UK and Ireland.

Still the weak pound is not all bad news. Most of our contracts are in America (I work for a software company). We get dollars and turn them into pounds to pay our bills. We have had a reasonable increase in income simply by the weakening of the pound. Im sure a few of the companies that still manufacture in the UK have experianced similar windfalls (i.e. Rolls Royce engines and whatever tool manufacturers their are left).
 
Don't forget on top of the economic and resource issues, we have the climate change stuff (see below) to look forward to also.

Looking on the bright side though - mass migrations and mingling of gene pools, cultures, science, knowledge and experience have historically been associated with important quantum leaps in human development, evolution and survival of species as a whole. People rise to challenges.

The author Malcolm Gladwell wrote a book about tipping points, that fulcrum point where everybody seems to just 'get it' all at the same time. The global economic crisis, resource depletion and distribution and climate change issues represent seemingly implacable challenges. But I think there will come a point when awareness and concerted action becomes universal, on all fronts.

Climate change could drive vast human migrations
http://www.physorg.com/news163832067.html

Water stress, ocean levels to unleash climate exodus: study
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Water_stress_ocean_levels_to_unleash_climate_exodus_study_999.html

Population and Sustainability: Can We Avoid Limiting the Number of People?
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=population-and-sustainability&sc=DD_20090610
 
California going bust.... well its been going bust for years now but the its predicament is getting alot more media attention over the past few days as it scrambles to work out some kind of budget. I think most Californians are expecting Obama to bail them out.

The crisis represents a dramatic fall not only for Mr Schwarzenegger but for America’s Golden State. It faces a $24 billion (£14 billion) deficit in the fiscal year starting on July 1 — nearly $700 per head of population.

"We are all Iceland now".

Funny I was backing Florida to implode before California.

NYT gives a brief article on the debt crisis America is now in.

The story of today’s deficits starts in January 2001, as President Bill Clinton was leaving office. The Congressional Budget Office estimated then that the government would run an average annual surplus of more than $800 billion a year from 2009 to 2012. Today, the government is expected to run a $1.2 trillion annual deficit in those years.

You can think of that roughly $2 trillion swing as coming from four broad categories: the business cycle, President George W. Bush’s policies, policies from the Bush years that are scheduled to expire but that Mr. Obama has chosen to extend, and new policies proposed by Mr. Obama.

I guess the clever states will be claiming poverty ASAP before the queue gets too long.

obama-deficit.jpg


Increadibly apparently the median price of a house in Detroit is now $6000
Link. So many homes are now repossesed, of course GM jobs are still draining out of the local economy. The cities tax base must be something gut wrenching.
 
I'm amazed that the states are ALLOWED to run deficits like this.

There shouldn't be any need for it. Just raise what you can in tax and spend it. If you don't make enough, close things down and cut back til it balances.

Its no way to run anything, spending more than you get.

Giles..
 
I don't imagine that countless thousands of acres of California, including prime real estate, being burnt to a cinder at least once a year(with massive state interventions required to combat the wildfires) does the state's finances much good either.
 
We are basicaly going to experiance the 1980s we never had because a) we had oil to bring in cash on foreign exchange b) London managed to retain its self as a world leading financial center through the 'big bang' deregulation and stronger pound. Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong, NY, and many other centers are keen to get in on the action and a weakening pound may see a flight of capital undermining the already weak state of the financial sector.

Though on the other hand everyone is always saying 'get out of the pound'. Ive never worked out which currency you are supposed to get into?



Gold?

Extending the ability to invest in different markets might lead to more stability.

This regulation the US is agreeing on (see here). Seems as if the whole issue is being dodged. The status quo continues with a few more forms to fill in.

Makes one wonder whether the apparently great idea of bailing out the banks for shares in them was really such a great idea. Would letting them fail and just guaranteeing all deposits would have been cheaper, as well as having the pleasure of allowing the banks that too many risks to go down the pan - sold off and broken up. The assets would have sold and life would have continued.

Instead we indebted ourselves to the hilt just coz our government didn't have the bottle.

In the face off between the banks and the government - the government blinked first and the banks won. The fact that it was a bluff on their behalf just makes it that much galling. The government was too concerned with being popular to notice that they needed to do nothing apart from just guarantee the deposits, keep a tally of the money paid out and wait for the market to stabilise.
And its plans for further regulation of the credit agencies are also vague as to how they will "strengthen the integrity of the ratings process" and "reduce the use of credit ratings in regulations and supervisory practice".

They don't want to simply have them as public servants so they put it off til later.
 
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