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Global financial system implosion begins

China produced 5 million fresh university graduates in 2007.

Of these, some 1.4 million have been unable to find work for the last year - and many more have been forced into taking low-paying jobs that do not reflect their academic merit, due to the lack of appropriate opportunities.

This year, China churned out over 6 million fresh university graduates.

I imagine that next year there will be quite a few million very well-educated, very pissed off, young people roaming around the country.

And that's just the elite; millions of laid off factory workers will head back to the countryside and the rural poor are gonna be up shit street with no bog roll.


:(


Woof
 
Thats some pretty horrific US jobs stuff.

I think any remaining optimism took a battering this week, and this is reflected in oil price falling very steeply. Not that I've been optimistic for years, but it appears the extent of the woe is sinking in for more people just now.

I suppose we're in the ugly demand destruction spiral now, I wonder if this will continue unabated for years or whether the story of the next decade or so will be a series of almost-recoveries followed by further declines, as we bounce our way down the resource availability curve.


:( I fear that's likeliest scenario :(
 
The numbers.

As of November 26, 2008, the US has committed or expended, without the benefit of an overall strategy, lurching from emergency to emergency, the following public funds to rescue with little success the collapsing finance sector:
From the Federal Reserve: (TAF) Term Auction Credit - $900 billion allocated; $415.3 billion expended.
Discount Window Lending - $140 billion
Banks (other loans primary credit) - $93 billion
Investment Banks (other loans primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit) - $47 billion
Loans to buy ABCP (other loans asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility) - $66 billion
AIG (allocated minus Treasury's $40 billion) - $112.5 billion; $87.4 billion expended
Bear Stearns (initial loan to support JPMorgan takeover) - $29.5 billion; $27 billion expended
(TSLF) Term Securities Lending Facility - $225 billion; $200.5 billion expended
Swap Lines (dollars provided by Federal Reserve to foreign central banks) - $602 billion (MMIFF) Money Market Investor Funding Facility - $540 billion
(CPFF) Commercial Paper Funding Facility *upper limit from Reuters - $1.8 trillion; $271 billion expended
(TALF) Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility - $200 billion
(GSE) Government Sponsored Enterprises and (MBS) mortgage-backed securities Program - $600 billion
From the Treasury:
(TARP) Treasury Asset Relief Program - $700 billion; $330 billion expended
Exchange Stabilization Fund to guarantee principal in money market mutual funds - $50 billion
Treasury direct purchases of MBS since September - $26.5 billion
Citigroup (Treasury+FDIC guarantees) - $238.5 billion
From the FDIC:
Guarantees for Banks - $1.9 trillion From Other Sources:
Automakers - $25 billion; $25 billion more pending
Consumer credit - $50 billion (out of TARP)
(FHA) Federal Housing Administration - $300 billion
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Nationalization - $350 billion
Grand Total: $7.362 trillion

source
Incidently an intersting article but I take exception to his failure to hold the PRC to account for its currency manipulation and its own role in the fact that its people are not benefiting greatly from the huge transfer of labour activity east. The PRC is the master of its own economic policies and it bought US government debt to take dollars out of the Chinese market and prevent Chinas currency from appreciating too fast against the dollar. It was a modern re-invention of mercentalism for an era without gold backed currencies. Japan also has acted like this in the past. Funding US federal and corportate debt fed money back into the US to buy Japanese and Chinese goods, as US and EU jobs headed east to be done by people whos living standards were not rising as fast as there net productive output should have allowed.

No one has clean hands in this crisis. The whole 'greedy western bankers' meme is just scapegoating, its true they have a huge role but it lets far too many other people of the hook.
 
Incidently an intersting article but I take exception to his failure to hold the PRC to account for its currency manipulation and its own role in the fact that its people are not benefiting greatly from the huge transfer of labour activity east. The PRC is the master of its own economic policies and it bought US government debt to take dollars out of the Chinese market and prevent Chinas currency from appreciating too fast against the dollar.

Hmmmmmm.

:hmm:

And the hundreds of millions of peeps in China living on less than US$1:00 per day (that the Chinese government should be looking out for,) owe exactly what to the USA?

Has the USA really looked out for the interests of these hundreds of millions?

As you should know, David, I'm no advocate for the CCP, but neither am I about to endorse some US-centric driven, neo-liberal economic criticism at this time.

China has enormous problems and has had for far too long.

A weak Yuan policy has, generally, been good for China.


Self interested, fiscal guff about "currency manipulation" is not helpful in finding multilateral solutions.

Just ask the IMF what happened to Asia in 1998 as a result of this kind of ideologically-driven crap.


:(


Woof
 
Caveat emptor: this response is a bit rambling and Im not an economist so could have gotten some basics either wrong or missed off important bits.

A weak Yuan policy has, generally, been good for China.


Self interested, fiscal guff about "currency manipulation" is not helpful in finding multilateral solutions.
And it has been bad for Chinas international competators, other low labour cost countries. It has also stored up the problems we are seeing now. Even if it was good for China but inflated trade surpluses would eventualy have to correct. By having a delibertaly low Yuan the trade imbalance was greater than it otherwise would have been. China, like Japan, Russia and Saudi choose too buy US debt, this meant the interest on US lending was kept low and the US government, banks and consumers could buy things like oil, barbie dolls and dvd players. I find the word neoliberal very appropriate as the people in charge of the global economy are certainly not classicaly liberal economists. They all enjoy there market distortions just so long as they benefit from them.

Our current economic system is the result of centuaries of trial and error. I think (unless someone can convince me otherwise) that currencies should either be freely traded (all of them) or have values set by some form of Bretton Woods type system. Having a system where countries can manipulate there own currencies value is what exsacibated the great depression, the so called begger thy neighbour game where countries tried to each undercut the other by lowering the value of there currency. This created trade wars and set higher and higher barriers. The post WWII economic world was one where a determination that this must never happen again was a huge concern. Globalisation and interdependent trade networks were (and can still be) a huge part of ensuring the world does not slide into trade wars and global wars. The left was as keen as any to create an international system of open trade. It is how the EU was founded, by creating open markets and interdependence for coal and steel as a deliberate means of reducing the risks of war. The idea of opening borders is a great thing, but in its current format this movement has long since been hijacked as a means of opening some borders more than others..... it is not about free trade but exploitation. That should not distract from the idea that free and equal trade is a good long term goal. Where currencies fit into this is that all currencies should all play with the same rules. Either a system of fixed currencies or a system of freely traded currencies. A system where the Yuan can be set against the dollar but the South African Rand not, beggers the Rands employees.

Currencies should in theory work that when two countries trade with each other that trade helps set the currency. If country A can make widgets cheaper than country B, it will sell more to country B aquiring its currency in return. Eventualy country B will go bankrupt as it has no more currency to buy widgets with, so country B will need to sell something to country A to get some of As currency. (This is hugely simplified). The value of the two currencies should shift until the amount of money passing between the two is basicaly the same..... or one will go bankrupt. Take this very very basic model and expand it to the world and this is the theoretical system that international trade should work on. It does not. America gets to sell debt to make up the trade gap and countries buy that debt.

America disproportionaltely benefited from the current econmic set up by being given huge amounts of the money they had spent to buy oil and goods back in the form of debt. But the people who bought this debt did so not through coersoin but because they wanted too. China benefited by being able to set its currency against a system of free floating ones and sterilising its incoming dollars by buying debt and sending them back to the US to buy more Chinese goods.


This is just one more breach of the theoretical rules that the post war compact of expanding internaional trade was supposed to have. Its aims were to spread wealth (the theory that wealth is not a zero sum game) and to reduce the chances of another war.

Offcourse this ignores the worldwide ignoring that we are reaching (or have grossly exceeded) the enviromental limits of the system that supports the economy. We are extracting more from the soil, fish, water, energy and other extractive resources than is being replaced and are running out of the capacity to expand (frack it we will be running out off them very soon) and we are running out of enviromental sinks for our pollution (CO2, rubbish, plastics, water pollutant, etc).
 
China, like Japan, Russia and Saudi chose to buy US debt.

It's debatable about how much of a choice they have. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency. All big ticket transactions are conducted in $.

They are restricted from buying strategically important US companies. Remember the P&O/Dubai Ports fiasco? Eventually the American ports were bought by AIG, which is now owned by the US government.

When you have ten of billions sloshing around *world's smallest violin* you're a little limited in what you can do with it.

I'm sure I've recommended it before. Super Imperialism by Michael Hudson. There's a complete pdf in the link. Great read.

America disproportionaltely benefited from the current econmic set up by being given huge amounts of the money they had spent to buy oil and goods back in the form of debt. But the people who bought this debt did so not through coersoin but because they wanted too. China benefited by being able to set its currency against a system of free floating ones and sterilising its incoming dollars by buying debt and sending them back to the US to buy more Chinese goods.

So you're accusing both USA and China of being currency manipulators?

This is just one more breach of the theoretical rules that the post war compact of expanding internaional trade was supposed to have. Its aims were to spread wealth (the theory that wealth is not a zero sum game) and to reduce the chances of another war.

It isn't a zero sum game as in "you win, I lose". We can all win.

Already we "stand on the shoulders of giants". Hopefully seeing further than they could imagine.

Or maybe not. :(

Of course this ignores ... that we are reaching (or have grossly exceeded) the enviromental limits of the system that supports the economy. We are extracting more from the soil, fish, water, energy and other extractive resources than is being replaced and are running out of the capacity to expand (frack it we will be running out of them very soon) and we are running out of enviromental sinks for our pollution (CO2, rubbish, plastics, water pollutant, etc).

Yes the Earth is finite. Life here is possible because of the Sun though.

... There's always hope.
 
Anyway, before anyone gets more embroiled in what I said before - I was just trying to lighten things up a bit.

It's nearly Crimbo ffs! :mad:

Yield - good post btw. ;)
 
Demand side
The worsening recession is now in a self-reinforcing downward spiral, as the weak economy leads to reduced spending and tighter credit, leading to further job losses and even less spending.
"Weakness has spread from housing to Wall Street to Main Street," wrote economists for UBS. "It is now effectively feeding on itself."
Economists have been lowering their forecasts for growth in light of the sharp drop off in November. The median forecast for fourth-quarter growth is now negative 4.1%, with negative 2.9% expected for the first quarter. Most economists don't see a rebound in growth until next summer.
The economic data calendar in the coming week won't be as jammed back as it was last week, and the data aren't likely to be as horrific as the disastrous employment report and Institute for Supply Management indexes. It would take a lot to shock markets and policymakers.
A 4.1% drop in retail sales over Christmas.....
Link#
BMW brand sales fell 26.2% in November from the same month a year ago, said the firm, while sales of its UK-based Mini subsidiary declined 20.8%.
Link#
Sales of new cars in the UK fell in November by 36.8% on the previous year, to 100,333 vehicles, the biggest monthly drop in 28 years.
link
British Airways has announced it is planning to cut more than 100 jobs at Gatwick airport.

The company said it was planning to operate up to 15% fewer departures at the Sussex airport next summer. Four aircraft will also be withdrawn.
Oil prices are crashing and still BA cant fill its flights.

Supply side
BHP to cut some ores by 22%.


China energy producers drop 7%
Globalcoal.com reported today that Chinese power generation fell 7% in November from last year! Huge cuts in energy-intensive manufacturing (of aluminum, steel, etc.) and warmer than usual weather resulted in this record contraction in electricity production. The reduction in thermal plant output (mostly coal) fell an even more dramatic 14% from 2007.
I am begining to think we are skirting close to a depression. The bail out has not worked or not worked quick enough. Things are looking grim.
 
re Aviation. Its not just a case of filling flights. The wide spread model has been to lease in aircraft. The leasee gets the aircraft at a knock down rate so long as they fly it enough to qualify the aircraft for depreciation (650 hours in the UK) the leasor (who can be in be in any industry) can then depreciate the aircraft against their pretax profits (just over half the value of the aircraft over 5 years). This has been the real methodology behind cheap flights (though you never hear environmentalists going on on about it) and it falls apart if companies don't have the pretax profits to offset.


Also BA may well have optioned Jet A1 last summer when prices were higher.

Already the used aircraft market is saturated like I've never seen (and I'm getting really annoyed with spam offering huge discount on aircraft) but it can only get worse.


Also Yield: AIG is not state state owned it was loaned a huge sum by the US government at commercial rates instead, loans I think it they are unlikely to be able to service.
 
Already the used aircraft market is saturated like I've never seen (and I'm getting really annoyed with spam offering huge discount on aircraft) but it can only get worse.

I didn't know that. Interesting, thanks.

Also Yield: AIG is not state state owned it was loaned a huge sum by the US government at commercial rates instead, loans I think it they are unlikely to be able to service.

BBC News. 17 September 2008
AIG will get an $85bn loan, in return for an 80% public stake in the firm.

I thought that meant they'd been nationalised? I'll take your word for it though.
 
Remembered it was a loan, forgot about the stake bit, still 80% of f*@k all is f*@k all. Still, reckon Cassano is going to go to jail. Insurance in our industry was pretty cartelled before he destroyed one of the few players:mad:

The other bit on aircraft lease, I forgot to mention that completed the puzzle, was while the aircraft depreciated by half over 5 years on paper, they weren't in real terms as there was up to a five year lead time on manufacturing, (with even a sub market of people taking positions to speculate on someone buying out on their place in the queue). So supply and demand drove second hand prices up, we sold a 5 year old aircraft last year for more than it was bought new. You only get clobbered for capital gains if you didn't reinvest it back in more aircraft, so the merry-go-round went on...
Now supply and demand means lower resale values and less people have got the pretax profits to invest...
 
I would be interested to hear what people's thoughts are on the likelihood of the following:

- a sovereign world debt default by the US
- the withdrawal at short notice (e.g. like post communist collapse Russia or East Germany at the time of reunification) of all circulating British pounds in favour of the Euro

Hypothetical, and hopefully remote possibilities but exactly how likely do people think they are, and what events would increase the risk of them happening?
 
I would be interested to hear what people's thoughts are on the likelihood of the following:

- a sovereign world debt default by the US
- the withdrawal at short notice (e.g. like post communist collapse Russia or East Germany at the time of reunification) of all circulating British pounds in favour of the Euro

Hypothetical, and hopefully remote possibilities but exactly how likely do people think they are, and what events would increase the risk of them happening?

This has already been muted by an EU Commissioner in an article (on the BBC website)

Indeed since there is not going to be a referrendum on the issue, as they will lose, what better way/opportunity to usher in the Euro by allowing/arriving at a situation that leaves stirling worthless?

Or is this too simple? :D
 
Sir Josiah Stamp, director of the Bank of England and the second richest man in Britain in the 1920s sums it up well:

"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin . . . . Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them but leave them the power to create money, and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. . . . Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. . . . But, if you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit."
 
Thanks. The number of Euros a £ is worth has dropped from about 1.50 Euros a few years ago to 1.25 a few months ago. It has now dropped a further 10% to around 1.15. I wonder if the psychological argument for retaining the pound (you currently get a higher numeric value of Euros to the £1 in currency exchange) will evaporate once there is exchange rate parity, i.e. £1=1 Euro.

The Daily Express seems to be taking the lead on this Euro issue in the tabloids (they are against). One of the problem for British banks is that they have been badly affected by the financial crisis, while so many of the European banks have managed to retain their strength. This, coupled with the states new debt burden in bailing out the banks, would only seem to serve to make the pound weaker and undermine confidence in it. The government's major share and leverage in UK banks now, perhaps makes it easier to get the banks backing.

Is Britain's economy being disadvantaged by not being in the Euro? I know that supposedly you can shop in Euros already in a number of stores, but this doesn't seem to have really taken off.
 
I didn't know that. Interesting, thanks.



BBC News. 17 September 2008


I thought that meant they'd been nationalised? I'll take your word for it though.

Asset stripping begins. AIG has the largest fleet of aircraft for lease in the world. (not quite my sector, we had/have to put up with Buffet's time share aircraft in the main instead). What I was thinking coz its core business is Insurance, is there a core of unlimited liability (thinking back to distressed Lloyd's Names. I confess I haven't a clue at the differing legal frameworks in International Insurance.

goebfwai : Re EUro, see £ entry highly unlikely, but could argue a whole different thread about it.
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/americasDealsNews/idUSTRE4B76FJ20081208

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Payments of around $1.5 billion will likely need to be made to settle credit default swaps on Tribune Co's debt, after the newspaper publisher on Monday filed for bankruptcy protection.

The privately held publisher of the Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times, which took on about $13 billion of debt when it went private last year under a deal led by real estate mogul Sam Zell, filed for bankruptcy after struggling with its heavy debt load.

Around $20.5 billion of credit default swaps on Tribune's debt are outstanding, though this number falls to around $1.5 billion after netting down redundant exposures, according to data by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp, which confirms the majority of credit derivative trades.

Credit default swaps are used to protect against a borrower defaulting on their debt, or to speculate on their credit quality.

When a borrower defaults protection buyers are paid the full amount insured in return for the defaulted debt, or cash equivalents.

Tribune's bonds traded between 3 and 6 cents on the dollar on Monday, indicating protection sellers are unlikely to recover much from the contracts.

Tribune had $11 billion in outstanding long term debt as of Sept 28, according to a regulatory filing.
 
There's your soundbite
taxpayers financial support for the banking system is
now equivalent to more than one quarter of global GDP, or more than £9,000bn.
 
Or to look at it another way.........

There is only one way (apart from gross government ineptitude, which fortunately under President-elect Barack Obama seems fairly unlikely) that U.S. or Western European GDP could fall anything like it did in the Great Depression, and that is through globalization.

It is now abundantly clear that, through the simultaneous arrival of the Internet and cheap cell-phone technology, the pace of globalization increased markedly around 1995, with global supply chains for time-sensitive products and services being for the first time possible without enormous effort, thus propelling new participants, notably India and China, into the global free-market economy. This has had the apparently benign (though less so in reality) effect of allowing rich country monetary authorities, particularly in the United States, to keep monetary conditions lax without stoking inflation, except in the prices of stocks and housing. The low interest rates and easy credit produced by the lax monetary policy in turn sped globalization by increasing the availability of capital for emerging-market production facilities and reducing the cost of conducting global trade.

In the long term, a major economic effect of economic globalization is to reduce the income gap between rich and poor countries, by bringing the latter fully into the nexus of the global economy. While factors of differential education, capital, natural resources, infrastructure and work ethic remain, they can be expected to diminish as globalization proceeds. Thus the world becomes more equal, even as it becomes richer. Eventually, it may become fully equal, with difficulties of geography making no difference to earnings, and a capable hardworking educated Lesothan earning the same as a capable hardworking educated American. Kumbaya!

There is one snag, at least for rich countries such as the United States, Western Europe and Japan. If the world becomes more equal more quickly than it becomes richer, then living standards in rich countries must decline. If the world were suddenly to achieve equal income levels between countries, without a significant increase in output, U.S. living standards would fall by over three quarters.

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/bearslair?art_id=10160
 
On Wednesday China posted gloomy numbers. Exports are down in November, the first drop for nearly 7 years. 2.2% down from a year earlier. Imports were down 17.9% !

We're doomed, but looking on the bright side at least there is a chance of meeting some stiff carbon reduction targets now.

See a chunk of the economy disappear before your eyes. The BBC already had an article about making presents for Christmas instead of buying them. Ho ho ho and bah humbug, the ghost of Christmas future cant afford central heating.
 
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