free spirit
more tea vicar?
well yeah, but then looking on the bright side erm
Global financial system implosion begins
- Thread starter Falcon
- Start date
That sounds like a plan: they'd execute all the smackheads, license prostitution, crackdown on corruption and we'd get a rail system that worked...I think we should think outside the box, sell the entire to country to Singapore NOW, for a quid, provided they take our debt on
Barking_Mad
Non sibi sed omnibus
An article yesterday by those witchcraft economists claimed that the US was actually in recession back in mid-2007.
The `third slump' and its consequences
By Phil Hearse
November 30, 2008
http://links.org.au/node/770
By Phil Hearse
November 30, 2008
http://links.org.au/node/770
A Dashing Blade
Takes horses to water but can't make donkeys drink
Please put a "Warning : Written by Marxist looney" sticker when posting such links in future. I wasted a good 3 minute of my life reading that.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
From the Phile Hearse link above
"Consequences of the slump
How will the financial crash spill over into the ``real'' economy? At the time of writing (early November 2008) the signs are ominous. In the UK real unemployment is probably already at 2 million and heading upward to 3 million within six months. In October 2008 unemployment in the US rose by 240,000; in September it rose 287,000 and in August by 123,000 – giving an official figure of 10.5 million unemployed, 6.5% of the workforce (and as we know these figures are always underestimates). In the third quarter of 2008 General Motors and Ford between them lost $14.6 billion, a clearly unsustainable rate of loss. Both these companies and the third car giant Chrysler are tottering on the brink of collapse. There are numerous other indicators; what do they mean for the medium term?
As Trotsky said, all perspectives are provisional; much depends on the issue of whether there is a global collapse of the financial system. In that case all bets, literally, are off and the consequences will be unprecedented (see below).
First, let us assume to that this does not happen. Even in this case we can foresee a number of crucial impacts in the advanced capitalist countries:
1) A wave of bankruptcies and job cuts, with huge rises in unemployment;
2) A major reduction in tax revenues, leading to huge cuts in services, benefits and public sector employment – as is already happening in Italian schools;
3) A fall in all revenues based on share and stock prices, in particular the income of pension funds, potentially leading to a major decline in the income of pensioners – but also the loss of a major part of people’s savings in stock market funds;
4) A continued decline in house prices, itself destroying a major part of the savings of millions of workers, especially in the UK and US;
5) Newly unemployed workers or small enterprise owners recently gone bankrupt will be unable to meet their credit repayments (mainly credit cards) and will thus lose the property – mainly houses – upon which their credit is secured. This in turn will push up the numbers of the homeless;
6) A refusal by the banks to lend money except on ultra-secure conditions. This will inhibit credit for companies, plunging many small enterprises into bankruptcy and undermining any attempt to refloat the economy on the basis of credit and massive levels of domestic debt. Those days have gone.
There is a seventh factor that is more speculative – whether current price inflation will continue. Much of the inflation of commodity prices has been speculative and a major decline of the world economy is likely to hold prices in check. If prices continued to rise on top of all the effects described above, this would amount to a truly shattering decline of real incomes for workers in the advanced capitalist countries. In any case, mass unemployment and austerity is now inevitable. It is an open question whether the state will have sufficient means to provide some level of unemployment benefit to those affected."
Er ... I'm failing to see the luncacy myself. Pretty much what loads of other people are saying. Is it because he mentions Trotsky and its from a 'socailist' website?
"Consequences of the slump
How will the financial crash spill over into the ``real'' economy? At the time of writing (early November 2008) the signs are ominous. In the UK real unemployment is probably already at 2 million and heading upward to 3 million within six months. In October 2008 unemployment in the US rose by 240,000; in September it rose 287,000 and in August by 123,000 – giving an official figure of 10.5 million unemployed, 6.5% of the workforce (and as we know these figures are always underestimates). In the third quarter of 2008 General Motors and Ford between them lost $14.6 billion, a clearly unsustainable rate of loss. Both these companies and the third car giant Chrysler are tottering on the brink of collapse. There are numerous other indicators; what do they mean for the medium term?
As Trotsky said, all perspectives are provisional; much depends on the issue of whether there is a global collapse of the financial system. In that case all bets, literally, are off and the consequences will be unprecedented (see below).
First, let us assume to that this does not happen. Even in this case we can foresee a number of crucial impacts in the advanced capitalist countries:
1) A wave of bankruptcies and job cuts, with huge rises in unemployment;
2) A major reduction in tax revenues, leading to huge cuts in services, benefits and public sector employment – as is already happening in Italian schools;
3) A fall in all revenues based on share and stock prices, in particular the income of pension funds, potentially leading to a major decline in the income of pensioners – but also the loss of a major part of people’s savings in stock market funds;
4) A continued decline in house prices, itself destroying a major part of the savings of millions of workers, especially in the UK and US;
5) Newly unemployed workers or small enterprise owners recently gone bankrupt will be unable to meet their credit repayments (mainly credit cards) and will thus lose the property – mainly houses – upon which their credit is secured. This in turn will push up the numbers of the homeless;
6) A refusal by the banks to lend money except on ultra-secure conditions. This will inhibit credit for companies, plunging many small enterprises into bankruptcy and undermining any attempt to refloat the economy on the basis of credit and massive levels of domestic debt. Those days have gone.
There is a seventh factor that is more speculative – whether current price inflation will continue. Much of the inflation of commodity prices has been speculative and a major decline of the world economy is likely to hold prices in check. If prices continued to rise on top of all the effects described above, this would amount to a truly shattering decline of real incomes for workers in the advanced capitalist countries. In any case, mass unemployment and austerity is now inevitable. It is an open question whether the state will have sufficient means to provide some level of unemployment benefit to those affected."
Er ... I'm failing to see the luncacy myself. Pretty much what loads of other people are saying. Is it because he mentions Trotsky and its from a 'socailist' website?
hipipol
Peckham Wry
Well they are rather well "organised" aren't they?That sounds like a plan: they'd execute all the smackheads, license prostitution, crackdown on corruption and we'd get a rail system that worked...
hipipol
Peckham Wry
He is rather a miserablist aint he?
All of his hooror vision can only come to pass if all the worlds govts sit back and do nothing - which I think you'll find is the exact opposite of what is actually happening.
I think it actually represents a wish list for this Hearse idiot
Best place for him would be inside his own name, with the coffin lid nailed down!!!
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
He is rather a miserablist aint he?
All of his hooror vision can only come to pass if all the worlds govts sit back and do nothing - which I think you'll find is the exact opposite of what is actually happening.
I think it actually represents a wish list for this Hearse idiot
Best place for him would be inside his own name, with the coffin lid nailed down!!!
He's predicting a severe global recession and identifying what that will mean - I cant see what hes saying is any different from lots and lots of economists and analysts (and I suspect pretty close to what many governmetns think - incuding our own) .
Whats your problem with his analysis?
Or do you just blithely except the 'bit of a blip then back to business as usual - so dont stop spending now!' soft soap?
A Dashing Blade
Takes horses to water but can't make donkeys drink
Er . . . none there, economics 101. But never let selective quoting get in the way of a good polemic eh?
Here, I'll do it as well . . .
"Ideologically this crisis is a massive blow for world capitalism. Not in a generation has the reputation of bankers and the ultra-rich been at such a low level. Class hatred and social disorder is now bound to deepen and intensify. Not for a long time has there been so much discussion of the relevance of Marx."
or this . . .
"Because of the negative experiences of the Socialist Alliance and Respect Mark 1, the building of a coherent national left alternative in England and Wales is going to be extremely difficult. The Socialist Workers Party and the Socialist Party have both retreated into petty factionalism and are unable to sustain a wider vision of how a broad militant left might be created. Only Respect and the Scottish Socialist Party, both weakened by splits, sustain a serious alternative"
Or this moronic wish-list AKA "how to bankrupt a country in 10 easy steps" . . .
"In Britain and internationally the left needs to elaborate a program of demands to meet the crisis, key objectives to mobilise around. These have to include:
1) Defence of social services and public sector employment.
2) A punitive tax on all incomes over £100,000.
3) A program of public works with workers on a liveable wage to mop up unemployment.
4) A substantial increase in the national minimum wage.
5) A major increase in state pensions and unemployment and social security benefits.
6) An end to evictions, take houses with mortgage defaults into the public sector.
7) Expand house building and create a nationally owned rented sector.
8) Stop factory and company closures, nationalise bankrupt companies under workers' control.
9) Nationalise all the banks.
10) Major controls on capital movements and a tax on international capital movements."
Witchcraft economists? You mean like "Dr Doom" aka Nouriel Roubini?
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
ON NOS - MARX! Thats like mad. like lizards and shit
Still don't see the lunacy - the past 12 months has put marx back on the agenda big style. Whatever you think of the attempts to put his ideas into practice, its difficult to ignore the precisence of his analysis of capitalism.
As for their recommended action - I'd support most of it, although its hard to see how it could be enacted without a revolution but still closer to reality than the self-destructive self deluding nonsense thats been promoted by the neo-liberals for the past 20 years.
'Infinite Growth - ever increasing consumption' ffs. The reality is we're hitting crunch time on climate and energy and dealing with that requires the dismantling of capitalism.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Delivering complete control of your economy to the free market seems to be a pretty good way of doing that.
Chickens. Roost. etc
hipipol
Peckham Wry
I'm not really sure where to start as you have so many assumtions built in to your point of view.....ON NOS - MARX! Thats like mad. like lizards and shit
Still don't see the lunacy - the past 12 months has put marx back on the agenda big style. Whatever you think of the attempts to put his ideas into practice, its difficult to ignore the precisence of his analysis of capitalism.
As for their recommended action - I'd support most of it, although its hard to see how it could be enacted without a revolution but still closer to reality than the self-destructive self deluding nonsense thats been promoted by the neo-liberals for the past 20 years.
'Infinite Growth - ever increasing consumption' ffs. The reality is we're hitting crunch time on climate and energy and dealing with that requires the dismantling of capitalism.
The last 12 months have seen a number of things occurring
1 The most obvious has been the US sub-prime mortgage collpase - itself to a very large extent based on the attempt by US legislators to spread the "American Dream" to many of its poorer citizens - an unintended consequence I'd agree, but hardly as a resulted of unfettered free market activity
2 A surge in commodity prices which has been driven largely by a rebalancing of economic growth towrds developing countries, most notably Vhina, again not exactly the front runner in a free market beauty contest
3 The bursting of the housing bubble - this is happening global and was precipitated by events 1 and 2
4 The impact of both 1 and 2 on the developed economies consumption patterns
From this you deduce that Marx was "right" about the ultimate fate of Capitalism and that it should be "dismantled".
Despite strenuous efforts prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union and and limited changes in China, Socialism never delivered the Utopian dream that Marx predicted - I think he was very good at identifying the inherent contradictions and systemic weakness of the capitalist world of his time, but was extremely weak as far his postulation of a solution was concerned.
As for all the wafty ego-driven idealism of ex-Public School twats and their assorted followers in the groups Hearse (how apt is that?) mentions - SWP are you insane? - not one of which could organise their way out of a wet paper bag let alone a problem as great as this - it beggars belief that anyone could take it seriously.
Yes Marx is being talked about again, but in the same kind of way the terrified islanders hand over the film crew when they hear King Kongs cry - ie falling back on some mystical mumbo-jumbo cos they've shat their pants in fear. The world is very different in some ways and very similar in others to that which confronted the German bullshiter who managed to marry a member of the minor landed gentry then let his own kids die while worked on his "theories" - and thats all they are, theory - applicable if at all now, mainly to the emrging economies where the workers really are crushed - but even there not to the extent of early 1800s Britain - which I think he also predicted would be the first to usher in the age of wonder for the workers - another fucking spot on prediction there.
There ar4e no ablsolutes and the fact that a load of stuck in the past has beens crawl from the woodwork like some latter day Cassnadras does not by any means make what they spout true.
I agree that untramelled laissez faire business practice has to soem extent created the situation the world is now in, but so has tinkering by Govts - rather than tackling the big corporations they have tried to tweak the system - wrong!
If the US electoral system wasn't so dependant on cash from big biz ( I doubt if it would be better withem relying on Big Union either) they would have had the guts to tackle them earlier. For example in return for big biz support Reagan re-classified SUV as commercial vehicles, thus avoiding the tax levied on smaller, non polluting cars, exactly the kind of vehicle people now want, which led the Yankee car cos down the dead end of huge gas guzzlers - resulting in their current predicament
I think the Nordic model of regulated capitlism is actually the way forward whereby a consensus driven politics emerges - we have an adverserial system in more then just the courts in the Anglo-Saxon econmopies, which means sudden shifts in policy, resulting in fuck ups like this
How to build such a consensus, the limits on biz, the limits of Govts, thats the problem - a revoltution? Might suit you cos you are bored, but very much less than funny when the shooting starts
The motivation for the CDO-type risk-hiding was to spread the American dream to the underprivileged? To quote Macenroe 'You cannot be serious!'.
ETA: in terms of cause and effect, wouldn't it be more accurate to say that predatory lending on the part of banks was without cost as long as the value of the property at foreclosure was sufficient to cover the loan paid out, and that it was (accurate) concerns about the unsustainability of the housing bubble that led the sub-prime lenders and their investors to get cold feet.
ETA: in terms of cause and effect, wouldn't it be more accurate to say that predatory lending on the part of banks was without cost as long as the value of the property at foreclosure was sufficient to cover the loan paid out, and that it was (accurate) concerns about the unsustainability of the housing bubble that led the sub-prime lenders and their investors to get cold feet.
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Tad naive, isn't it?
hipipol
Peckham Wry
If you read what I said you will see I used the word "sub-Prime"
The fact that many CDOs conatined sub-prime mortgages simply spread the contagion. It was unfettered lending, which would not have been possible without specific instruction by the US Govt to reduce credit criteria, mainly for mortgages, that is at the base of the problem, not CDOs per se. Though I have to admit have looked at CDO structures a number of years ago I cant for the life of me understand how they found anyone to buy them it was insane
I have an arguement with a bunch of guys on a train recnetly, turned out they were a CDO structuring team from UBS - I had massive rant about the stupidity of such products BEFORE they told me what they did - they told me they had had NO IDEA of the weakness of the underlying products that they had built their CDOs from - WHAT?? WHY??? We were just told to optimize the value. I found it astonishing, they were clever guys, all good degrees in Engineering and maths but it had NEVER occurred to them to ask waht the components they were using were, they were only interested in the math - brilliant
Many years ago when I was recruiting guys for electronics comapnaies I ran an ad titled - Get out of defence and do something worthwhile - I had hundred sof replies, one of which was from a double first in mahts and Physics from Cambridge followed by some AI reserach at MIT. This guy was sworking on camera recognition systems - he said he thought it was for civilian aircraft to help them land at unfamiliar airports or for bad weather landings - he had worked on this project for 3 years - he had only just realised it was a military projetc - he drove to work every day to the BAe site in Portsmouth - the one with the three foot high concrete letters by the entrance saying MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEMS.
They are a rare and stupid breed Mahtematicians
A Dashing Blade
Takes horses to water but can't make donkeys drink
Personally I put the most blame on US policy response to the Dot-Com bubble bursting ie low interest rates and a refusal to prick asset bubbles.
hipipol
Peckham Wry
I hope Greenspan feels just a tinge of remorse
A Dashing Blade
Takes horses to water but can't make donkeys drink
T'was Bill Clinton who started off the whole "mortages for poor people" drive in the first place. The initiative didn't originally come from banks.
Well, that's certainly the view popular in the elite media, but the banks engaged in a whole range of practices that bore no obvious relation to the Carter/Clinton initiatives, and many of the offenders weren't despository banks anyway so weren't affected by that legislation. Under normal conditions the banks would have screamed blue murder if legislation had forced them to throw their underwriting principals out the window, but they didn't because for a long time it was profitable to do so themselves.
An old article on a topical subject from Kunstler that's well worth re-visiting during the current, ongoing, economic situation...
The Long Emergency
What's going to happen as we start running out of cheap gas to guzzle?
JAMES HOWARD KUNSTLER Posted Mar 24, 2005 12:00 AM
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/7203633/the_long_emergency
Plus, what we can learn from - The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil
www.powerofcommunity.org
The Long Emergency
What's going to happen as we start running out of cheap gas to guzzle?
JAMES HOWARD KUNSTLER Posted Mar 24, 2005 12:00 AM
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/7203633/the_long_emergency
Plus, what we can learn from - The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil
www.powerofcommunity.org
david dissadent
New Member
Link
Like for like retail sails are down 10% in many stores. Oddly this chimes with a figure I seen (did I post it here???) a couple of weeks ago with some major US ports seeing a 10% drop in container traffic. This will translate into job losses sooner rather than later. Job losses and store closes in the US will be mirrored by job losses and factory closures around the world. Im guessing alot of this comes back to two things, the loss in value of houses and the pulling of credit from consumers. This makes consumers feel less secure and have less money to spend. Even consumers not badly hit will pull there sails in and start accumulating cash. The brutal and unpopular truth is this recession is economicaly necessary and inevitable. People have to save for there retirements, to save for lifes knocks and a banks need savings to create loans. International trade also needs to be rebalanced or atleast see currency movements that reflect the trade imbalances. None of that is new, there have been many people saying the same thing for many many years now. The problem is that we can end up (or perhaps are) in a process of increasing job losses meaning less money to spend and less money spent means increasing job losses. Governments are acting with alot of energy to try to stop this happening but I am wondering if they are now doing too much? There seems to be a populist "none shall fail" attitude spreading, that they can borrow there way out of this recession.... just one more hit of government lending and everything will turn around. I mean when the government started talking about ensuring woolies stayed open? Dead business model is dead. Leave it. Same in the US, bail out GM for what???? They have shipped US jobs overseas for decades, the workers in Mexico who cannot buy GM cars are a part of the reason the worlds economy got so out of kilter, GMs range of gas guzzlers is another. Dead business model is dead. The shareholders are holding out bleeding hearted appeals to demand money to save american jobs. Fuck em, if the company is so near bankruptcy, let it fail then nationalise it to resctructure and downsize, refloat a smaller leaner company in a couple of years time. Wipe out the shareholders who voted for boreds that stopped making cars and cranked out endless lines of trucks for home use.
If governments want to load up with debt to turn into jobs, they can start working on major renewable energy infrastructures.
david dissadent
New Member
Barking_Mad
Non sibi sed omnibus
By any standards, that's a lot of job losses. You can't help thinking that the new year total might be higher still...
US EMPLOYERS AXE 533,000 JOBS IN NOVEMBER
US EMPLOYERS AXE 533,000 JOBS IN NOVEMBER
Barking_Mad
Non sibi sed omnibus
elbows
Well-Known Member
Thats some pretty horrific US jobs stuff.
I think any remaining optimism took a battering this week, and this is reflected in oil price falling very steeply. Not that I've been optimistic for years, but it appears the extent of the woe is sinking in for more people just now.
I suppose we're in the ugly demand destruction spiral now, I wonder if this will continue unabated for years or whether the story of the next decade or so will be a series of almost-recoveries followed by further declines, as we bounce our way down the resource availability curve.
I think any remaining optimism took a battering this week, and this is reflected in oil price falling very steeply. Not that I've been optimistic for years, but it appears the extent of the woe is sinking in for more people just now.
I suppose we're in the ugly demand destruction spiral now, I wonder if this will continue unabated for years or whether the story of the next decade or so will be a series of almost-recoveries followed by further declines, as we bounce our way down the resource availability curve.
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