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Global financial system implosion begins

I'm reading this thread and others about the same subject since some time.
Very interesting posts by david dissadent and many others. Thanks.
It is to an extent a welcome step outside the narrow minded, short-term (they see it as long-term, obviously) self-serving (or they think it is) UAE (mostly) inability to face reality and act upon it. They rather push up inflation then consider to leave the shade of the cherished US umbrella. (I expect the Iran Hysteria to rise to new peaks to keep it all in line.)

In my view, and thinking long-term, a dramatic and lasting downfall of the $$ can only add to a more healthy distribution of overall opportunities on a global scale. But then, I'm not an economist. I chose to be (religious) humanist at a very young age.

salaam.
 
elements within the US government and security services and policy making elite have been pushing for an attack on Iran since the 1980s, and it's never happened. i doubt it will happen now.
 
No, I meant the Middle East and especially our Saudi friends (of course manipulated and driven by the US)

salaam.
 
Well... it is not only the Saudi brothers...(sisters do not come into play there)

(this only posted for not being accused of "bigotry", if that is the PC correct English word)

:)

salaam.
 
I have sort of had a bit of an epiphany about this crisis. Two aspects to it I understood but really have realised how they feed each other. How the British Bankers Association inadvertantly seals the fate of poor home owners in Alabama. For reason I do not understand the interest rates of the subprimes track the LIBOR.

LIBOR is the London Interbanking Offer Rate, or the rate of interest at which banks in London will lend to each other. When the credit crunch bites deep this shoots up. Banks tend to loose trust in each other because of the way the subprime mortgages were bundled into the most profitable CDOs and MBSs. As more and more subprime mortgages default the value of these instraments becomes more questionable and this makes banks nervous about lending to each other. This pushes up the LIBOR which means the next time the interest rates are reset for the home owners they have to pay even more. Which feeds on the defaults.

Ofcourse the LIBOR fluxuates and only really hits the very high rates during times of crisis of confidance and this must haunt the Federal Reserve as much as anything.

This is how the crisis feeds of itself in the most unexpected ways.

Globalisation is also a part of the comming recession in my humble opinion. Alot of high paying manufacturing jobs in the US have been offshored to Asia where the workers earn much much less. This should have led to a big drop in US spending. However americans were able to keep up spending by increasing household debt and raising second mortguages against increased house prices. Many of those who lost there jobs were rehired in lower paying service sector. Others just sunk into poverty. Now people are unable to raise more credit to spend and the service sector jobs will disapear. This papering over of the loss of earnings will disapear from the American economy seeing a longterm weakening of consumer spending. The fruits of the so called 'race to the bottom'.
 
For reason I do not understand the interest rates of the subprimes track the LIBOR.

There are "IBORS" for all major currencies ie "LIBOR" for GBP, "EURIBOR" for EUR , "NIBOR" for Norway etc etc etc. The dollar one is referred to as "Dollar LIBOR".
 
Interesting: http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-22-is...ase-of-collapse-of-US-real-economy_a1298.html

Also.......28 million Americans living on Food stamps -

Michigan has been in its own mini-recession for years as its collapsing industrial base, particularly in the car industry, has cast more and more out of work. Now, one in eight residents of the state is on food stamps, double the level in 2000. "We have seen a dramatic increase in recent years, but we have also seen it climbing more in recent months," Maureen Sorbet, a spokeswoman for Michigan's programme, said. "It's been increasing steadily. Without the programme, some families and kids would be going without."

But the trend is not restricted to the rust-belt regions. Forty states are reporting increases in applications for the stamps, actually electronic cards that are filled automatically once a month by the government and are swiped by shoppers at the till, in the 12 months from December 2006. At least six states, including Florida, Arizona and Maryland, have had a 10 per cent increase in the past year.

In Rhode Island, the segment of the population on food stamps has risen by 18 per cent in two years. The food programme started 40 years ago when hunger was still a daily fact of life for many Americans. The recent switch from paper coupons to the plastic card system has helped remove some of the stigma associated with the food stamp programme. The card can be swiped as easily as a bank debit card. To qualify for the cards, Americans do not have to be exactly on the breadline. The programme is available to people whose earnings are just above the official poverty line. For Hubert Liepnieks, the card is a lifeline he could never afford to lose. Just out of prison, he sleeps in overnight shelters in Manhattan and uses the card at a Morgan Williams supermarket on East 23rd Street. Yesterday, he and his fiancée, Christine Schultz, who is in a wheelchair, shared one banana and a cup of coffee bought with the 82 cents left on it.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/usa-2008-the-great-depression-803095.html
 
"In some cities that have low property values, where there are dense concentrations of foreclosures, you see lenders who file foreclosure proceedings but don't actually take control of the properties, because the lenders have to maintain them and pay taxes on them," he said.

"There are areas in some parts of the country where property values are quite low, and there are no large-scale expectations of them going up. They don't know that they will ever recoup those costs," and so the lenders never re-take title to the properties, allowing them to become derelict, Smith said.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-foreclosure_monmar31,0,1221355.story

This is something I had not heard, that some poor areas houses are simply being legally abandoned. No legal owner. Many of the houses in the US, especialy in the really poor areas are shockingly poorly built. It seems mortgage lenders are simply letting some housing stock rot and writing of the full value. The social consaquencies of making people homeless and letting the house go to hell are quite frightning. 'Hoovervilles' i.e. squatter towns may be comming back to the US.

Between 'jingle mail' where buyers walk away from the house with no further costs and this trend of lenders not taking up the ownership the dynamics of this down turn are rather exceptional.

In another development JP Morgan are now insisting to senate that they could not take on Bear Stearns without the $29 billion gift from the Federal reserve. Paulson the treasury secetary guarenteed the loan to JPM through the Fed and now the constitutional conservatives are baying for blood as the Fed is a private bank not a state institution and the exeuctive branch via the treasury secetary Paulson has guarenteed its use of state funds. This is seen as a usurption of congresses exclusive right to raise and spend taxes. Democrats are spitting blood at money being thrown to bail out 'bad bankers' and its an election year. There is no real threat to the deal yet, but there is a palatable question: why even with a $30 billion gift did no one else want a bank whos head office was worth more than the offer price for the entire bank?

When phrases like "the worst crisis in 60 years" first appeared they were poo pood as exagerations and belonging to wacky doom mongers. Now the federal reserve is justifying its actions with similar phrases and the world bank has said as much in its recent growth forcasts.
 
I don't know what a CDS is. Ought I to be ashamed?

I do know that people who use acronyms on a non-technical public bulletin board and challenge people as to whether they know what it means are probably bullies and peole who abuse power.

I hope your aren't serious. I didn't see anyone acting as if they are lecturing to dummies, in any of the threads about this issue (or in many others).
Ask and you shall get an explanation.

salaam.
 
I hope your aren't serious. I didn't see anyone acting as if they are lecturing to dummies, in any of the threads about this issue (or in many others).
Ask and you shall get an explanation.

salaam.
I didn't mean to imply that they were lecturing to dummies. This forum isn't a lecture theatre, it's a public forum in which technical knowledge shouldn't be assumed.

I did say that they were using technical acronyms without explanation, and in particular one person was challenging people as to whether they knew what an acronym meant, in a way that implied that anyone who didn't know what it meant was in some way a lesser person. I think that's a form of abuse of power, and I also think the person who replied was acquiescing in this.

It would be kind of you to invite the rest of us into the mysteries but you shouldn't have to. It was extremely discourteous and I think an abuse of power on someone else's part for you to have to do so.

"cos he flicked to kick, and I didn't know".
 
I don't know what a CDS is. Ought I to be ashamed?

I do know that people who use acronyms on a non-technical public bulletin board and challenge people as to whether they know what it means are probably bullies and peole who abuse power.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap

The simplest way I can think of describing them is like an unregulated insurance market. They are used by companies to 'hedge' against losses and negative events (not sure how better to describe it). Say for example airlines will take out 'hedges' against high fuel prices. They buy a CDO which they pay for over a set period of time and if during that time the price of fuel goes above a certain price they get a preagreed amount of money.

Where they tend to give some people the shits is over hedging debts. The CDS's are not written by insurance companies with centuries of experiance and heavily regualted to ensure they have sufficient assets to cover there exposure. The CDS's are often issued by hedge funds and investment banks that are highly 'leveraged' in other words have huge loans compared to there cash in the bank so to speak. The ability of these institutions to meet the enourmous CDS market is open to question (to be polite). There are about $45 trillion dollars of CDS's written and outstanding. The US GDP in a year is about $13 trillion and the total government debt is about $9trillion.

The problem is the worst has already happened. A huge institution has gone to the wall, Bear Stearns bank. Had it been allowed to cease trading then it would have triggered a large number of CDS payments. The ability of the other investment banks and esepcialy the hedge funds to meet this payment would have been highly questionable. Bear Stearns died because people lost faith in its ability to pay back what they owed it long term and decided to get there money out in a short order of time. Had it been allowed to completely fail a similar fate would have spread to a large number of institutions each triggering CDS payments. It would have been an intersting day on Wall Street. So the state intervened to create some sort of deal to save Bear so it did not go bankrupt.

I guess many will say the fact that Bear was caught by the state (it lost $10 billion in one day, not as trading losses but as people calling in loans and withdrawing funds) people will say that this proves that the market and the state can prevent the catastrophic contagion of failure some people hypothisise is possible. Others will say that with companies like Thornburg and Countrywide in the morgage issuer market, the monoline isurers and many of the hedge funds already in deep trouble the potential for the state to run out of money or miss a critical failure means that a very serious spread of these failures in almost inevitable.

Id say bugger me if we get out of this one then its tea and crumpets at the pavillion for tea for everyone involved at the end of play. We can get out of it without a big ugly set of failures. Im not really convinced we will.

Warren Buffet, the most famous capitalist of this generation has famously called the CDS market 'a weapon of financial mass distruction' and allegedly avoids the market like the plague.

Others on here may challange the views I have presented or outright laugh them off, so dont take my word as sacrosanct. I dont even work in the financial industry..... this is the best explanation I can come up with while skiving 20 minutes of off work this morning.
 
Others on here may challange the views I have presented or outright laugh them off, so dont take my word as sacrosanct. I dont even work in the financial industry..... this is the best explanation I can come up with while skiving 20 minutes of off work this morning.

Thing is, I have various friends who do work in the financial industry... And the worst forcast they have is that there might be a slowdown, even a mini-recession, but global financial catastrophe is unlikely...
 
Thing is, I have various friends who do work in the financial industry... And the worst forcast they have is that there might be a slowdown, even a mini-recession, but global financial catastrophe is unlikely...


Exactly.
 
Thing is, I have various friends who do work in the financial industry... And the worst forcast they have is that there might be a slowdown, even a mini-recession, but global financial catastrophe is unlikely...
None of them work in the fixed income/interest rates universe then. My personal view is that equity markets are still failing to appreciate how serious this all is (not saying "global financial catastrophe" per se, but certainly more than "slowdown")
 
None of them work in the fixed income/interest rates universe then. My personal view is that equity markets are still failing to appreciate how serious this all is (not saying "global financial catastrophe" per se, but certainly more than "slowdown")

Im very much a miserable half empty pessimist, but im still in the process of trying to discount popular media doom & gloom hype from my opinion
 
Im very much a miserable half empty pessimist, but im still in the process of trying to discount popular media doom & gloom hype from my opinion

Many views make a market :)

(notes that Merrill's and Lehman 5 year CDS's are trading more than 250 over ;))
 
Thing is, I have various friends who do work in the financial industry... And the worst forcast they have is that there might be a slowdown, even a mini-recession, but global financial catastrophe is unlikely...

I'm not even sure that those working in the industry are well placed to forsee such an event, but sure as shit they'll be selling us analysis, sound bites and shorting like motherfuckers if it happens.
 
Vastly better then my hamfisted efforts at explanation.


Our confusing economy

Its 40 minutes long and it does a very good job of explaining what is going on for the layman.


Edited to add this neat little graph form 2006 showing the resets in the various mortguage classes.
ivyarmresetschedule.png


Notice that the subprime resets will come to an end at the end of this year, although the graph is out of date so there will be some resetting next year. However notice the resets that kick of next year, they are not in the subprime class. Notice especialy the 'Option ARM' class. This will likely become very important. They begin resetting about midway next year. These have brutal resets in them in the region of 7%. Whats more they are 'negative amortizign' loans. This means that you can make a minimum payment that does not reduce the amount you owe and only covers some of the interest and any additional unpaid interest gets added to the outstanding loan. People are holding onto these ticking timebombs and cannot refinance or sell due to the current housing price crash and the 'credit crunch' (or more accurate pricing of loan risks).

Business Week called them nightmare mortguages. (older article)
New article. Phase two of the mortguage crisis in the US.

The bulk of the resetting of ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) morgages in the US has only just happened, the subprimes are probibly about 2/3rds through and the other morgage classes are about to take off where the subprimes left of.

This story here suggests that 3.6% of all mortgages in the US were 90 days late on payment (or more) in December. The courts and mortgage issuers are not able to process foreclosure proceedings fast enough and many simply dont want to forclose. Only 2% of mortgages had started forclosure proceedings. By June the surge in subprime resetting for February and March of this year will be reaching the 90 days later stage. This is the guts of this crisis. This is where it stare at you straight in the face.

The US housing market is totaly fucked.

Asset deflation is utterly unavoidable. The average house price in the US has fallen by more than 15% of off its highs in 2006. But the full scale of the crisis has not yet been revealed. Housing stock simpley piles up in a market that is falling and no one is financing morgages. To fall back into line with long term median price growth I have seen estimates that the average price will have to fall 40% of off its highs and perhaps 50% to account for over correction and recession. Who the hell is going to slave under punative interest rates on a house that is worth 30% less than when they bought it when they have not yet made enough repayments to cover the value that the house has lost, when the alternative is to 'jingle mail' the keys back to the bank and be debt free?

If the system is overburdened with deliquency many more people may choose to stop paying on the basis that no one is taking action, especialy in hard pressed poor comunities.

The US mortgage issuers are facing a monumental problem.

But the real recession is now arriving. Its leading edges are being seen in the transport sector, like the first winds and rains of an approaching hurricane. Airline the perenial sick man of the US economy are starting to fail. 2 small and one medium sized ones ceased operating last week, not just chapter 11 but ceasing to operate (Aloha, AHA and Champion with others others filing chapter 11 in the last 7 days as well). Many others are laying of staff and parking up planes. They are no longer able to sustain the high fuel costs of $90+ oil. Railroad companies are now reported to be parking up frieght cars due to lack of demand and the trucking industry is in near crisis.

New car purchases fell to the lowest level in 15 years.

Rapidly increasing food and fuel prices are taking money out of the manufactured goods market and discretionary spending out of US households pockets. Massively reduced acess to credit also means less money to buy things with. Less things being bought means less being manufactured which is less jobs.

As house prices collapse Americans feel poorer and as retirement looms for the babyboomers the years of excess have to be paid for. There houses are not the financial sure bets they thought they were. There 401k's (pensions) are losing value as the stock market weakens and the state social security pension fund is underfunded to the tune of 10's of trillions of dollars. They have to repay all the loans and second mortgages and start saving for retirment. A saver is not a consumer. The party is over for the boomer generation, probibly the most significant demographic in the US economy.

Its the end of an era and the beging of a long hard deep recession.
 
Joseph Stiglitz article from The Guardian

We should be clear, however, that monetary policy and these last-minute rescues can only prevent a meltdown of the economy; it can't resuscitate it. As Keynes pointed out, it's like pushing on a string - and even more so in this era of globalisation. With housing prices falling, new liquidity won't make -homeowners borrow more - or banks lend more. The money will look for safer and higher returns elsewhere, like China, which is now worried about US irresponsibility showing up in asset -bubbles in its own economy.

Given where we are, the downturn is likely to be the worst in at least the last quarter century, probably since the Depression. But the US has more than just a trade and fiscal deficit; it has a leadership deficit. The result is likely to be a downturn longer and deeper than need be. And the whole world will suffer.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/joseph_stiglitz/2008/04/the_financial_crisis_being_fel.html
 
I'm not even sure that those working in the industry are well placed to forsee such an event, but sure as shit they'll be selling us analysis, sound bites and shorting like motherfuckers if it happens.

Heh... They're better than someone who spends 20 mins a day looking at this... :D

Its the end of an era and the beging of a long hard deep recession.

A broken clock is still correct two times a day... ;)
 
Jefferson County is inching towards moving its sewars into Chapter 9 bankruptcy in the US. They got themselves involved in the more exotic side of local government financing and now are $3 billion in debt.

Local government in the US is really really creaking under all of this, especialy with the collapse of the auction rated municiple bonds market. They are now facing punitive rates of interest on there debts as no one will buy them, but they are slowly moving this to other kinds of bonds. Given the US is facing a huge drop in the value of houses and they get a large amount of there income from housing tax, once the recalculations go in they will likely face a widespread shortfall in housing revenue.

The faces of city officials in places like Cleveland look this death warmed up when they get interviewed about this crisis.

If Jefferson do go into bankruptcy protection it will be a bigger story than its worth on the surface, because of the size it will create alot of waves. But on the whole it is a tiney part of the US local government infrastructure. However it is an indicator of much more widespread problems.


California and Florida are going to be fun places to be govenor of over the next 5 years.
 
Theres a long tradition of US Counties going to the wall becasuse of ambitious Finance officials getting carried away with the cash swilling around the coffers
 
Theres a long tradition of US Counties going to the wall becasuse of ambitious Finance officials getting carried away with the cash swilling around the coffers
Orange County in the 90s and there was another big one in the 80s (New York :confused: ) IIRC had highprofile filings for chapter 9. They cant be liquidated so they have to go into bankruptcy protection.

It makes me think of the "The garbage man can" episode from the Simpsons. :)
 
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