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General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat

cupid_stunt said:
View attachment 293516

We, fuck me, the vaccines are working. :bigeyes:

And, the vaccinated tend to have shorter hospital stays, and a lot less die, because their cases are not so severe.

The top three slides via the link below show the total numbers of hospital admissions & deaths are much lower than when we previously had similar levels of cases.

Click to expand...

It is indeed important to look at things like 'rates per 100,000' in order to clearly see the very real impact of vaccines against this virus.

I usually feel the need to augment that with a different angle, in order that people can also see clearly how in terms of absolute numbers of hospital patients etc, those who have been vaccinated make up a significant proportion of such cases. The absolute numbers involve high numbers of vaccinated people because vaccines arent 100% effective and a very large percentage of the population have been vaccinated.

Here is a partial selection of some of the recent numbers in that regard. Both stories are told since these tables include absolute numbers and population rates. Its no surprise that government graphs tend to focus on the latter rather than demonstrate the magnitude of the former. And if people dont pay attention to the detail of such charts, they end up with the incorrect impression that a majority of cases being hospitalised are still unvaccinated, which is clearly not the case when we look at the raw numbers. Although I have to take this data with a pinch of salt too because I doubt the totals for the periods concerned match up all that well with the numbers we get in basic daily dashboard hospitalisation data.

Screenshot 2021-10-21 at 15.48a.jpg

Screenshot 2021-10-21 at 15.48.jpg

From https://assets.publishing.service.g...27511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf

The media dont tend to touch upon those absolute numbers very often, probably in part because dwelling on such figures is considered to potentially result in defeatism, confusion and undermining vaccination campaigns. For example in a recent BBC article about the current situation we read stuff like:

According to the Intensive Care Society, there are 823 patients with Covid in beds which can provide mechanical ventilation, out of a total of roughly 4,000 adult intensive care beds across the UK. That's way down on the winter peak, when extra wards and hospitals were built to care for the most seriously ill.

The majority are not vaccinated, Prof Summers said - although precise figures on vaccination status have not been published.
Click to expand...

(from Should the government do more to protect the NHS? )

Its true that I havent seen precise figures about intensive care beds and vaccination status, but its possible to make some reasonable assumptions and find clues about that using the figures I mention above.
 
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Chilli.s said:
Well hospitals are reporting far far higher death rates in non vaccinated patients
Click to expand...

A idiot replies...
dtb said:
Increases in COVID‑19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States

At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplifed, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated.

Click to expand...

WTF does this have to do with the post you quoted?

Actually forget it, just fuck off, and go play with some razor blades.
 
Sugar Kane said:
The CMO announcer there are cases of Delta Plus here now.

Seems its even more transmissable that Delta.

This thing is going to run for ages isnt it.
Click to expand...

Its been here since july. Don’t worry excessively, its not made it to variant of interest yet let alone variant of concern. In real world terms a bit more transmissibility isn’t necessarily noticeable outside of epidemiology circles.

And covid is going to ‘run’ for ever. We will learn to live with it just like we do with the hundreds of other nasty bugs that occasionally get us.
 
Supine said:
Its been here since july. Don’t worry excessively, its not made it to variant of interest yet let alone variant of concern. In real world terms a bit more transmissibility isn’t necessarily noticeable outside of epidemiology circles.

And covid is going to ‘run’ for ever. We will learn to live with it just like we do with the hundreds of other nasty bugs that occasionally get us.
Click to expand...

'learning to live with covid' can include learning to live with permanently altered life expectancy figures, permanent changes to the extent of health inequality, and a permanent need for greater health care system capacity.

If it does have a 10% increase in transmissibility compared to Delta then that will likely have implications that become obvious beyond expert circles. However we are still at a stage where the implications of the increased transmissibility of the original Delta are making themselves felt, especially as this will be our first winter with that variant. And actually distinguishing between those effects and the effect of reducing too many other mitigation measures and 'returning to normal' isnt trivial.
 
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Delta Plus is taking over here, on the West Sussex coast, which probably goes some way to explain the big increases over the last month, increasing at a quicker pace than the national rate, Worthing is already over the peak we had in July. In fact we have a higher overall rate of new cases, than our next neighbours in Adur district, which has the highest proportion of Delta Plus cases, at 61%. :(

It's about 6% nationally.

Adur, in West Sussex, has the highest proportion of Delta Plus cases where 61 per cent of new cases are down to the new variant.

In East Lindsey, Lincolnshire, 45.8% of their positive Covid tests are down to this new variant according to the Sanger Institute. Another hotspot where Delta Plus makes up a significant amount of cases is in Torridge, North Devon where 41% of cases are accounted for by the new variant.

Exeter, Swindon, Gravesham, Aylesbury Vale, Worthing, and the Isle of Wight are other areas where Delta Plus is increasingly prevalent, making up more than a third of cases in all of them.
Click to expand...

www.mirror.co.uk

New map shows Delta Plus variant hotspots across England as cases rise

A newly published map shows where the Delta Plus variant hotspots are across the country as cases and deaths continue to rise but scientists warn the new variant is "unlikely to change the picture"
www.mirror.co.uk www.mirror.co.uk

ETA - Adur is basically the towns of Shoreham & Southwick, plus various villages, the largest being Lancing.
 
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Thanks for that info. I didnt have very much to say about 'Delta Plus' until now because although its been on the radar for weeks, I didnt have access to (or at least hadnt stumbled upon) detail beyond the overall '6% of cases' figure.

The use of the term 'Delta Plus' is also fairly new, we were referring to it as AY.4.2 on the mutations thread, and this was first mentioned by 2hats on October 5th: Covid Mutations

Also note the bullshit from the BBCs choice of experts the other day when the BBC were somehow able to make the claim that "Experts say it is unlikely to take off in a big way". Covid Mutations
 
elbows said:
'learning to live with covid' can include learning to live with permanently altered life expectancy figures, permanent changes to the extent of health inequality, and a permanent need for greater health care system capacity.
Click to expand...

Another instance of the govt failure to recognise/care that a stitch in time saves nine.
 
Supine said:
Its been here since july. Don’t worry excessively, its not made it to variant of interest yet let alone variant of concern. In real world terms a bit more transmissibility isn’t necessarily noticeable outside of epidemiology circles.

And covid is going to ‘run’ for ever. We will learn to live with it just like we do with the hundreds of other nasty bugs that occasionally get us.
Click to expand...

Its now been made a variant under investigation (UK terminology) although the BBC are continuing to repeat what I consider to be ill-advised comments (that I already moaned about) like "unlikely to take off in a big way" in their latest story about it.

www.bbc.co.uk

Delta 'Plus' Covid variant may be more transmissible

It may be more contagious than Delta, but there is no evidence yet that it causes worse illness, experts say.
www.bbc.co.uk

A new mutated form of coronavirus that some are calling "Delta Plus" may spread more easily than regular Delta, UK experts now say.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has moved it up into the "variant under investigation" category, to reflect this possible risk.
Click to expand...
 
Badgers said:
Sage scientists advise ministers to begin Plan B including home working

upday.com

f7td5.app.goo.gl f7td5.app.goo.gl
Click to expand...

We're ending up having a parallel discussion here to whats being discussed on the main UK thread again, has that thread gone off your radar again like happened before?

I'm only mentioning this now because I've been picking over quite a lot of detail there with rather a lot of quotes, and I dont want to create the impression that I'm ignoring you on this thread but I dont want to repeat all of that detail here either. eg Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion and the subsequent post.
 
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cupid_stunt said:
I always pay more attention to the 7-day rates, so it's good to see the increase in new cases drop from 17.9% yesterday to 15.8% today, but hospital admission have gone up from 15.4% to 19.1%. :(
Click to expand...

Daily admissions for England are at levels which have caused the number of covid patients in hospital beds to go up by around a thousand in a week.

I'm not doing my own graphs for numbers in hospital beds at the moment but here are the daily admissions since July began.

Screenshot 2021-10-22 at 16.36.jpg

I havent dared to look at positive cases by age data for this week yet, but in recent weeks its continued to be a good guide as to what will happen to hospitalisations a bit later. So I will take a look again soon.
 
Also the admissions for England having reached the level of around 900 means I'm not find the latest SAGE modelling about what might happen in England in the months ahead all that useful. Because lots of the graphs they include are already failing to match the admission figures we've seen recently.


There are a bunch of models with a bunch of different assumptions so it isnt fair to pick just one as typical, but I'm going to have to pick one anyway just to illustrate what I'm on about.

I suppose I shouldnt be surprised that plenty of these are wrong already - they arent predictions of what will actually happen, they just provide indications of what different model show when they adjust certain specific parameters such as those to do with human behaviour and waning immunity.

Screenshot 2021-10-22 at 16.48.31.png
 
Now this one and others like it from the same document do still just about fit if we consider their full confidence intervals (shaded areas) rather than only the central estimates (solid lines). And it would be nice if reality ended up mirroring the falls it features soon. But this particular one may well turn out to be far wide of the mark when it comes to months like December and January. The infection levels after half term will offer some clues about that.

Screenshot 2021-10-22 at 16.52.jpg
 
Sue said:
The numbers in inner London are looking surprisingly good. Maybe everyone's already had it...?!
Click to expand...

Levels of immunity from prior infections is a very real factor which is accounted for in wave modelling, but it has its limits in terms of how much it can be relied on to protect places from bad levels of infection. In the wave a year ago London and the South East did not appear as bad as some other regions and then the Kent/Alpha variant came along and those regions went boom.
 
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