Tankus
Amused OAP
That just triggered me to ask for mine , I normally get a jab in Oct
Think I'll be masking well into next year
General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat
- Thread starter phillm
- Start date
Think I'll be masking well into next year
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
No love from Victor and Amy for John Campbell and the media's declaration that "herd immunity is finished"...
Also booster shots and natural infection ...
Also booster shots and natural infection ...
Science
Coronavirus cases are now falling in England, and have been doing so solidly for over a week. Barring some unforeseen calamity, this marks the de facto end of the English epidemic. Let me explain why and what that means.
archive.ph
Coronavirus cases are now falling in England, and have been doing so solidly for over a week. Barring some unforeseen calamity, this marks the de facto end of the English epidemic. Let me explain why and what that means.
In England, the Covid epidemic has de facto ended. Here's what that m…
archived 2 Sep 2021 14:31:45 UTC
Supine
Newt Member
Science
Coronavirus cases are now falling in England, and have been doing so solidly for over a week. Barring some unforeseen calamity, this marks the de facto end of the English epidemic. Let me explain why and what that means.
In England, the Covid epidemic has de facto ended. Here's what that m…
archived 2 Sep 2021 14:31:45 UTC
Never trust a covid commentator who is 100% sure about what they are saying. Especially if it is Andrew Lilico doing the commentary.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
On his twitter account, he describes himself as 'mainly an economist', so is clearly an expert with covid.
A friend who's an obstetrician was already seeing unvaccinated pregnant women in her ICU 6 weeks ago. Lots of premature births and the issues that come with that.
One woman was ventilated and the baby's heart rate went into distress but there was nothing they could do because the mother was unconscious so could not give consent for a c section as legally they could only do this if the mother's life was in danger.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
If anyone remembers me blathering on some time ago about how I was going to follow a range of voices on twitter that did not have the same pandemic instincts as me, one of them was Lillico. But I only managed to read his output for a couple of weeks because he was a disgusting example of a human being and my mental health was affected by his shitty views on a whole range of subjects.
The only highlight of that time was that when I first started following him, he was getting nervous because he had just written some awful optimistic bullshit in the fucking Telegraph and within days the case rates had started to go horribly wrong and he started to have regrets. But there wasnt much doubt that he would return to his standard thinking at the first opportunity.
I still dont know what will happen next but at some point in the next few days I will probably summarise some data that tells stories the media dont.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Or as people like him might put it, his brain died with covid, not of covid.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Having said all that, the stuff he mentions in that article is one of the big reasons I cannot make the sort of predictions I could of a year ago. This holds true even if he is only partially right, and an absence of prolonged periods of rapid exponential growth would certainly change my expectations of government being forced to act. But slow, grinding pressure on the NHS can still have consequences that demand action, and it isnt actually clear that we have achieved what he claims. But its certainly true that circumstances are not the same as a year ago, and this makes it hard for me to describe anything as 'inevitable' at this point, as opposed to this time last year where I ws guided by a bunch of things that appeared to be strong inevitabilities to me.
still less than 25% capacity compared to the peak. so 'strap in' seems rather unnecessary, knowing how many more people are now vaccinated or have some immunity.
A large majority of young people are pro-vaccination for Covid
ONS data July 2021
Not hesitant:
86% of 16 to 17 yr olds
91% of 18 to 21 yr olds
90% of 22 to 25 yr olds
ONS data July 2021
Not hesitant:
86% of 16 to 17 yr olds
91% of 18 to 21 yr olds
90% of 22 to 25 yr olds
Coronavirus and vaccine hesitancy, Great Britain - Office for National Statistics
Hesitancy towards the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine, based on the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey covering the period 26 May to 20 June 2021.
t.co
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Shame that's not reflected in up-take, for England, under 50% of 16 & 17 year olds, and under 65% of 18 - 24 years old, have had their first jab.
Yup.Shame that's not reflected in up-take, for England, under 50% of 16 & 17 year olds, and under 65% of 18 - 24 years old, have had their first jab.
However, it is worth noting that the vaccinations were rolled out by age and until recently only 18+ could be vaccinated.
In my area we are setting up testing and vaccination points in sixth forms and college's from tomorrow for a month.
Hello all, first ever post...
After a year and half of this pandemic this country and many other seem unable (or maybe unwilling) to settle back to true form of normality and one very clear demonstration of this is the vaccines themselves and very worrying.
Back when the vaccines arrived they were heralded as the cavalry coming over the hill, but since have become a nightmare. It's not the medication itself but the policies built around them notably where based on the idea they will "stop the spread". To be fair to the manufacturers they never made any claims about their products beyond reducing serious illness, and in the UK and other countries - most notably Israel - its very apparent its beyond their capabilities.
Students are having their social lives taken away from them (maybe their education too), care workers being dictated what should be injected into them, with nurses maybe next and someone in the corridors of power are hellbent on Digital ID cards.
Despite these limitations, Governments including ours are basing divisive policies on them but for what purpose given its doomed to fail their stated aim?
Why are people unable to discuss this...Is this a case of "buyers remorse" post vaccination?
Surely its got to be more than the Governement not wanting to perform a u-turn or admit the overplaying the vaccines abilities, or is something darker at play?
A slightly longer post than planned and maybe too controversial or uncomfortable, but hey ho
After a year and half of this pandemic this country and many other seem unable (or maybe unwilling) to settle back to true form of normality and one very clear demonstration of this is the vaccines themselves and very worrying.
Back when the vaccines arrived they were heralded as the cavalry coming over the hill, but since have become a nightmare. It's not the medication itself but the policies built around them notably where based on the idea they will "stop the spread". To be fair to the manufacturers they never made any claims about their products beyond reducing serious illness, and in the UK and other countries - most notably Israel - its very apparent its beyond their capabilities.
Students are having their social lives taken away from them (maybe their education too), care workers being dictated what should be injected into them, with nurses maybe next and someone in the corridors of power are hellbent on Digital ID cards.
Despite these limitations, Governments including ours are basing divisive policies on them but for what purpose given its doomed to fail their stated aim?
Why are people unable to discuss this...Is this a case of "buyers remorse" post vaccination?
Surely its got to be more than the Governement not wanting to perform a u-turn or admit the overplaying the vaccines abilities, or is something darker at play?
A slightly longer post than planned and maybe too controversial or uncomfortable, but hey ho
Supine
Newt Member
Hello all, first ever post...
After a year and half of this pandemic this country and many other seem unable (or maybe unwilling) to settle back to true form of normality and one very clear demonstration of this is the vaccines themselves and very worrying.
Back when the vaccines arrived they were heralded as the cavalry coming over the hill, but since have become a nightmare. It's not the medication itself but the policies built around them notably where based on the idea they will "stop the spread". To be fair to the manufacturers they never made any claims about their products beyond reducing serious illness, and in the UK and other countries - most notably Israel - its very apparent its beyond their capabilities.
Students are having their social lives taken away from them (maybe their education too), care workers being dictated what should be injected into them, with nurses maybe next and someone in the corridors of power are hellbent on Digital ID cards.
Despite these limitations, Governments including ours are basing divisive policies on them but for what purpose given its doomed to fail their stated aim?
Why are people unable to discuss this...Is this a case of "buyers remorse" post vaccination?
Surely its got to be more than the Governement not wanting to perform a u-turn or admit the overplaying the vaccines abilities, or is something darker at play?
A slightly longer post than planned and maybe too controversial or uncomfortable, but hey ho
Hello and welcome. The anti vax loon alarm bells are ringing but you seem articulate.
Not sure what your message is. A year ago there were no vaccines and the covid situation was terrible. Vaccines are now being rolled out and making an amazing difference, saving thousands of lives. What’s not to like?
Buyer's remorse by whom and about what exactly?Hello all, first ever post...
After a year and half of this pandemic this country and many other seem unable (or maybe unwilling) to settle back to true form of normality and one very clear demonstration of this is the vaccines themselves and very worrying.
Back when the vaccines arrived they were heralded as the cavalry coming over the hill, but since have become a nightmare. It's not the medication itself but the policies built around them notably where based on the idea they will "stop the spread". To be fair to the manufacturers they never made any claims about their products beyond reducing serious illness, and in the UK and other countries - most notably Israel - its very apparent its beyond their capabilities.
Students are having their social lives taken away from them (maybe their education too), care workers being dictated what should be injected into them, with nurses maybe next and someone in the corridors of power are hellbent on Digital ID cards.
Despite these limitations, Governments including ours are basing divisive policies on them but for what purpose given its doomed to fail their stated aim?
Why are people unable to discuss this...Is this a case of "buyers remorse" post vaccination?
Surely its got to be more than the Governement not wanting to perform a u-turn or admit the overplaying the vaccines abilities, or is something darker at play?
A slightly longer post than planned and maybe too controversial or uncomfortable, but hey ho
krtek a houby
Anger is Hi-NRG
Hello all, first ever post...
After a year and half of this pandemic this country and many other seem unable (or maybe unwilling) to settle back to true form of normality and one very clear demonstration of this is the vaccines themselves and very worrying.
Back when the vaccines arrived they were heralded as the cavalry coming over the hill, but since have become a nightmare. It's not the medication itself but the policies built around them notably where based on the idea they will "stop the spread". To be fair to the manufacturers they never made any claims about their products beyond reducing serious illness, and in the UK and other countries - most notably Israel - its very apparent its beyond their capabilities.
Students are having their social lives taken away from them (maybe their education too), care workers being dictated what should be injected into them, with nurses maybe next and someone in the corridors of power are hellbent on Digital ID cards.
Despite these limitations, Governments including ours are basing divisive policies on them but for what purpose given its doomed to fail their stated aim?
Why are people unable to discuss this...Is this a case of "buyers remorse" post vaccination?
Surely its got to be more than the Governement not wanting to perform a u-turn or admit the overplaying the vaccines abilities, or is something darker at play?
A slightly longer post than planned and maybe too controversial or uncomfortable, but hey ho
LOL I am aware of the risk of the "anti vax" label being used here but its not I am anti vax at all (they clearly have performed well in their original task), but concerned the policy makers are implementing policies based on something they simply cant achieve nor the manufacturer ever claimed, and amazed I guess no one is discussing the outfall of this.
krtek a houby
Anger is Hi-NRG
What is the outfall of this, do you think?
Im not entirely sure what the eventual outfall might be as the situation looks insane even by 2020 standards.
The most immediate and relevant to todays news was another announcement of implementing a vax ID card on nightclub doors based on this notion without vaccines the clubbers will be spreading virus....except even if vaccinated this is still possible. Negative test results dont count even if they should inspire more confidence, so why go this route and treat younger people like this?
If anything Vax IDs for bingo halls frequented by older folk makes more logical sense!
Supine
Newt Member
vaccinated people are significantly less risky when it comes to spreading the virus.
requiring vaccination status is a soft measure to help influence people into getting vaccinated. Proof of negative results is already widely spread this summer with festivals
uptake in older, bingo-ing generations, is already very high.
What outfall are you talking about? What is insane? All seems to be good ideas to me.
krtek a houby
Anger is Hi-NRG
Imagine having to show ID to get into a club. Shocking.
The negative result apparently isnt a valid for nightclubs although Im not sure QR code validator app venues might use can actually discriminate between 2 jabs or a test anyway (but dont quote me on that) so this could be a bluff of course.
The outfall might be government/policy makers getting a taste for pursuing laws and regulations that are divisive and deprive targeted people of things that are important to them while bypassing the House of Commons for fear of democracy or scrutiny stopping them. I dont know what or who might be next on their list.
Its probably a safe guess U75ers dont have any great love for the present administration, but I'm surprised members here arent more wary of them on this.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
And if I wanted to weave some of the desperate pandemic legislation into a larger political narrative, the obvious choice would be something that is very much not a new phenomenon. Which is younger members of society being asked to shoulder more than their fair share of the burden. Happened with paying for university, with the financial crisis and austerity, inevitably happened in various ways in this pandemic because of the nature of jobs that younger people do and their much greater number of social contacts, and the inability of educational settings to remain open at the height of pandemic waves. And looks like it will happen again when it comes to things like funding social care. Part of an even larger multi-decade story about unequal distribution of wealth, and some older generations protecting what they gained from an era of opportunity which has since been rolled back.
The 'getting a taste for' stuff gains limited traction because its so obvious that this governments instincts are to do as little as possible in response to the pandemic, and they only end up thinking the unthinkable temporarily when they think they have no other choice, choosing the 'least harmful to businesses' options from a menu of options that are all harmful to business and incompatible with the standard tory agenda. So people are understandably more focussed on concerns that the government is doing too little in the pandemic, not that they are overreaching. And the extent that they have bypassed 'democracy' and the commons seems quite normal, just continuing a trend seen for decades already. Nothing exceptional there, as we shall see again when they have the usual dull battle on their hands to get the next round of extensions to pandemic legislation through parliament.
In terms of lasting political consequences, apart from strain between generations over matter of who ends up funding stuff the pandemic adds another layer to an existing ideological problem the tories have these days. Which is that there are a number of generations of tories who love the whole small government, small state, market-driven shit, or at least love the myths and rhetoric that goes with that stance. But there have been signs ever since the financial crisis that circumstances this century will require a different approach. One that in some ways has more in common with the pre-Thatcher tory stance, whether that be dressed up as 'one nation conservatism' or the 'post-war consensus'. Stuff where there is a more direct role for state authorities in planning and managing the economy, even if the budget still goes to service providers that are privately owned. I consider it pretty much inevitable that gaining more of a taste for that looks inevitable this century. The pandemic might accelerate that a bit but its not a strange new direction thats come out of the blue, in many ways its long overdue.
The 'getting a taste for' stuff gains limited traction because its so obvious that this governments instincts are to do as little as possible in response to the pandemic, and they only end up thinking the unthinkable temporarily when they think they have no other choice, choosing the 'least harmful to businesses' options from a menu of options that are all harmful to business and incompatible with the standard tory agenda. So people are understandably more focussed on concerns that the government is doing too little in the pandemic, not that they are overreaching. And the extent that they have bypassed 'democracy' and the commons seems quite normal, just continuing a trend seen for decades already. Nothing exceptional there, as we shall see again when they have the usual dull battle on their hands to get the next round of extensions to pandemic legislation through parliament.
In terms of lasting political consequences, apart from strain between generations over matter of who ends up funding stuff the pandemic adds another layer to an existing ideological problem the tories have these days. Which is that there are a number of generations of tories who love the whole small government, small state, market-driven shit, or at least love the myths and rhetoric that goes with that stance. But there have been signs ever since the financial crisis that circumstances this century will require a different approach. One that in some ways has more in common with the pre-Thatcher tory stance, whether that be dressed up as 'one nation conservatism' or the 'post-war consensus'. Stuff where there is a more direct role for state authorities in planning and managing the economy, even if the budget still goes to service providers that are privately owned. I consider it pretty much inevitable that gaining more of a taste for that looks inevitable this century. The pandemic might accelerate that a bit but its not a strange new direction thats come out of the blue, in many ways its long overdue.
elbows
Well-Known Member
As for the other stuff you mentioned, its certainly true that the government have been guilty of mixed messages, unsustainable claims, contradictions and sometimes leaving large holes in the picture they paint.
Supine already did a good job of puncturing the overly simplistic binary thinking about vaccines. Its not a question of the vaccines totally eliminating transmission, but rather reducing it, to give just one example.
I can agree with you in so much as the government have deliberately not come cleam about all the implications of the Delta variant. They dont want to cross such bridges unless they have to, and will leave such things as late as possible. So far with Delta they were forced to acknowledge some its implications when they delayed 'freedom day'. But other ramifications have been pushed further out and will only make their presence felt if deemed necessary by circumstances in autumn or winter. And then they will acknowledge such things as part of a sales pitch to renew legislation, impose new restrictions etc.
There was also a problem involving the public being oversold a grotesquely oversimplified version of herd immunity and the benefits of vacination, how much pandemic weight vaccines could reasonably be expected to carry on their own. Only a further test of time including seasons like autumn and winter will really inform everyone about quite what to expect from the new normal. A range of possibilities exist, which is why exact predictions about what will happen next are limited so far. The government have pushed ahead more quickly than it is sensible to do, but eventually they may reach the intended destination, just not as quickly as they have often claimed.
I would suggest that the government have tended to sit somewhere in between expert advisors and the right-wing press in regards these expectations, The likes of Whitty and Vallance were careful not to claim they expected sterilising immunity and total lack of transmission in the vaccine era. The right wing shits in the press preferred to paint a delusional picture of the new normal being the same as the old normal. The government have floated around in between, and are easily buffeted by circumstances, very much including the properties of new variants that emerge.
The government are not relying on vaccines alone. They are relying on a mix of vaccines and infections and public behaviour, with tougher back up options available for the worst moments. Its a numbers game and as time goes on they believe the changing susceptibility picture, both via vaccines and infections, gives them more wiggle room to get the numbers to add up (mostly hospital numbers). They do make a mess of it sometimes because of politics and because they want to have their cake and eat it. Their approach is not without risk given there are cycles of raised expectations followed by dashed hopes. They seem to prefer to lead people on a dance via those cycles to other approaches such as a more honest framing about behaviours we can get away with in summer but not winter, for example. The wheels would probably fall of that wagon of theirs if such cycles repeat indefinitely, so they are ultimately banking on the new normal eventually resembling the old normal to a greater extent than seems possible for the rest of 2021 and early 2022.
Supine already did a good job of puncturing the overly simplistic binary thinking about vaccines. Its not a question of the vaccines totally eliminating transmission, but rather reducing it, to give just one example.
I can agree with you in so much as the government have deliberately not come cleam about all the implications of the Delta variant. They dont want to cross such bridges unless they have to, and will leave such things as late as possible. So far with Delta they were forced to acknowledge some its implications when they delayed 'freedom day'. But other ramifications have been pushed further out and will only make their presence felt if deemed necessary by circumstances in autumn or winter. And then they will acknowledge such things as part of a sales pitch to renew legislation, impose new restrictions etc.
There was also a problem involving the public being oversold a grotesquely oversimplified version of herd immunity and the benefits of vacination, how much pandemic weight vaccines could reasonably be expected to carry on their own. Only a further test of time including seasons like autumn and winter will really inform everyone about quite what to expect from the new normal. A range of possibilities exist, which is why exact predictions about what will happen next are limited so far. The government have pushed ahead more quickly than it is sensible to do, but eventually they may reach the intended destination, just not as quickly as they have often claimed.
I would suggest that the government have tended to sit somewhere in between expert advisors and the right-wing press in regards these expectations, The likes of Whitty and Vallance were careful not to claim they expected sterilising immunity and total lack of transmission in the vaccine era. The right wing shits in the press preferred to paint a delusional picture of the new normal being the same as the old normal. The government have floated around in between, and are easily buffeted by circumstances, very much including the properties of new variants that emerge.
The government are not relying on vaccines alone. They are relying on a mix of vaccines and infections and public behaviour, with tougher back up options available for the worst moments. Its a numbers game and as time goes on they believe the changing susceptibility picture, both via vaccines and infections, gives them more wiggle room to get the numbers to add up (mostly hospital numbers). They do make a mess of it sometimes because of politics and because they want to have their cake and eat it. Their approach is not without risk given there are cycles of raised expectations followed by dashed hopes. They seem to prefer to lead people on a dance via those cycles to other approaches such as a more honest framing about behaviours we can get away with in summer but not winter, for example. The wheels would probably fall of that wagon of theirs if such cycles repeat indefinitely, so they are ultimately banking on the new normal eventually resembling the old normal to a greater extent than seems possible for the rest of 2021 and early 2022.
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