Detailed prediction thread: how many of these 2016 Red states will flip Blue?

[Flavour]

I've chosen the states which seem to be the closest calls (and which were closest in 2016), ignoring Maine 2nd district and Nebraska cos they're pretty insignificant to the overall Electoral College numbers.

I think Biden will taken Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona. I'd really like to see him take Texas but think Trump might just pip it. As long as Biden takes the above it doesn't matter what happens so much in the others anyway. I think Florida will take fucking forever to give us a result but will fix it for Trump. Not sure about the others. Apparently Wisconsin is very likely to go blue, according to JTG anyway!

 

[Dogsauce]

I think the crowds of early voters in Texas will inspire a greater republican turn-out in response, people who may sit on their arse complacent with it being a ‘safe seat’ will have reason to vote. May see that effect elsewhere too. Florida stays red because it’s Florida and cunts always prevail there no matter what, in part because the anti-communist/socialist stuff will play well with some of the immigrant communities, where it’s being heavily plugged via social media etc. Mixed bag on the other states, but a general feeling Trump will do better than predicted, but maybe not enough. Like in 2018, the senate results will be a little disappointing compared to the most optimistic predictions doing the rounds, if they couldn’t make gains in 2018 what has changed other than Covid? Trump was still an asshole then.

 

[Streathamite]

PSST!!!
<cough> Iowa <cough>

 

[Streathamite]

I've chosen the states which seem to be the closest calls (and which were closest in 2016), ignoring Maine 2nd district and Nebraska cos they're pretty insignificant to the overall Electoral College numbers.

I think Biden will taken Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona. I'd really like to see him take Texas but think Trump might just pip it. As long as Biden takes the above it doesn't matter what happens so much in the others anyway. I think Florida will take fucking forever to give us a result but will fix it for Trump. Not sure about the others. Apparently Wisconsin is very likely to go blue, according to JTG anyway!

Wisconsin is absolutely a done deal for Biden. That lead is too damn big and too damn solid.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Gonna go mostly with the polls. Even if they're a bit off, Biden still wins most of the above. Re Texas, I'm not so sure the big on-the-day Republican turnout will actually happen. This is the Covid election. I think a lot of them, if they haven't voted yet, won't vote.

 

[Streathamite]

Florida stays red because it’s Florida and cunts always prevail there no matter what, in part because the anti-communist/socialist stuff will play well with some of the immigrant communities, where it’s being heavily plugged via social media etc.

On your first assertion - Obama won there twice, so did Clinton, Bush had to cheat to win there first time (and, Carter, LBJ and JFK all won there). It's always been a swing state with, close races, mainly due to its' schizoid political philosophy - touristy, multicultural, hip, chic, cosmopolitan and oh-so-liberal on the end of the peninsula, and in the coastal/resort towns, Old south, and deeply reactionary and racist in the north and in the interiror. As the old saying has it, "the further north you go in Florida, the more into theSouth you get".
On your second, the anti-commiunist stuff has less traction than ever before, and is in fact on the verge of extinction. Allow me to explain. The visceral, anti-communist thing came mainly from the cubans who left with Batista in '59, or in the years immediately after. Those in that group were either oligarcicos, or as near to full-on fascist as makes no odds. Virtually all of that grouping are either dead, or very old indeed. They may have passed their politics on to their children, but there's no reason to believe that the third generation will automatically have the same views, still less the fourth. They have no personal memories of being humiliatingly driven out of Cuba by a ragbag guerrilla army
(The Mariel Boatlift generation just wanted a better, wealthier life; theirs was not explicitly an anticommunist crusade).

 

[Streathamite]

Like in 2018, the senate results will be a little disappointing compared to the most optimistic predictions doing the rounds, if they couldn’t make gains in 2018 what has changed other than Covid? Trump was still an asshole then.

Two points in answer to your question, two points
1) the republican fruit to be plucked wasn't as juicy and low-hanging as the ones on offer now, but they still came achingly close, time and again.
2) The relentless, inexorable demographic changes will kick in that bit harder this year - and they're all one way.

 

[belboid]

....It's always been a swing state....

for the Democrats its a fair weather friend. It has never been the state that actually wins it for them, it goes Democrat only when they had enough EC votes in the bag anyway. I think there was one exception in the last fifty years. And Gore, of course.

 

[Streathamite]

for the Democrats its a fair weather friend. It has never been the state that actually wins it for them, it goes Democrat only when they had enough EC votes in the bag anyway. I think there was one exception in the last fifty years. And Gore, of course.

sure, but that means it's still a long way from being a bankable GOP win. A very long way indeed. Amd the polls give Biden the edge

 

[Flavour]

I just hope the confirmed results are so heavily in Biden's favor that waiting for tx and florida to declare doesn't even matter

 

[Looby]

Every time I see this thread I get the Milky Way red car, blue car song in my head.
I have no idea about the states.

 

[stavros]

It seems a bit odd to want the blue party to beat the red party.

 

[skyscraper101]

I prefer to call it the donkey party v the elephant party.

 

[belboid]

It seems a bit odd to want the blue party to beat the red party.

it's that way round because they thought it looked better on a map - with the (more likely to be) red states in the middle surrounded by the blue.

 

[belboid]

After a studied analysis of all the polls, even going with them being as wrong as they were four years ago, Biden will take the three he needs (Wis, Mich, Penn), Arizona will a knife-edge but he'll just win that one too. And he'll win either Florida or Texas, I'm plumping for a surprise Texas win, after we've all got depressed and scared by a Trump win in Florida.

If Biden takes Florida, I'll actually be able to get an early night.

 

[JTG]

All of them other than SC (no chance) and Ohio (knife edge). You missed out Iowa (knife edge, dunno, doesn't matter) and Nebraska 2nd which Biden will win. Also Maine 2nd which is also a knife edge.

 

[toblerone3]

My votes matches the five most popular choices on this thread. But in addition I have a feeling that there will be surprise flip. I think that flip might be Texas.

 

[platinumsage]

Ohio feels the closest, whether it will be or not I dont know

 

[Streathamite]

After a studied analysis of all the polls, even going with them being as wrong as they were four years ago, Biden will take the three he needs (Wis, Mich, Penn), Arizona will a knife-edge but he'll just win that one too. And he'll win either Florida or Texas, I'm plumping for a surprise Texas win, after we've all got depressed and scared by a Trump win in Florida.

If Biden takes Florida, I'll actually be able to get an early night.

North carolina also looks good for Biden

 

[JTG]

North carolina also looks good for Biden

Wouldn't be surprised if the sunbelt battlegrounds - FL, NC, GA, TX & AZ - go one way or the other as a group. They're all reasonably close and not wildly dissimilar... which is why 290 EC votes can easily become 400+

 

[Streathamite]

Also Maine 2nd which is also a knife edge.

Maine 2 is the most rural, whitebread and conservative (note the small 'c') bit of Maine. It should be good hunting grounds for republicans.
However, the folk in Maine seem to simply really, really hate Trump. Possibly because of his crassness and godgiven talent for saying the most insensitive thing possible, all the time. New Englanders - especially in Maine - tend to be very 'correct' types. It's now tossup/lean D, I would say.

 

[JTG]

Maine 2 is the most rural, whitebread and conservative (note the small 'c') bit of Maine. It should be good hhuning grounds for republicans.
However, the folk in Maine seem to simply really, really hate Trump. Possibly because of his crassness and godgiven talent for saying the most insensitive thing possible, all the time. New Englanders - especially in Maine - tend to be very 'correct' types. It's now tossup/lean D, I would say.

Polls have it in a statistical tie I believe

 

[Streathamite]

Polls have it in a statistical tie I believe

That makes sense.

 

[Streathamite]

I am also confident that georgia will go to Biden, simply because Jon Ossoff and Raphael warnock have run absolutely blinding campaigns, and that will impact positively on the Presidential.

 

[JTG]

I am also confident that georgia will go to Biden, simply because Jon Ossoff and Raphael warnock have run absolutely blinding campaigns, and that will impact positively on the Presidential.

See post in other thread - Black senior turn out already at 124% of '16, Latinos already over as well. White non-college is 500,000 down on last time - they have to show up or else

 

[Streathamite]

See post in other thread - Black senior turn out already at 124% of '16, Latinos already over as well. White non-college is 500,000 down on last time - they have to show up or else

Yep, all good, makes me even more confident

 

[Flavour]

Maine doesn't have hardly any EC anyway who gives a fuck about it

 

[JTG]

Maine doesn't have hardly any EC anyway who gives a fuck about it

You will if it's 269/268 and the Maine second is recounting

 

[Flavour]

Which thankfully is highly unlikely -- go Michigan! Go Philadelphia! Go Houston and Austin!

 

[Pickman's model]

let's hope the result is determined by the votes and not by events outside the counts.