Covid19 UK News, science and policy

[weltweit]

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Scaling up our testing programmes
More detail following my link above
The link leads to a pdf

Pillar 1: NHS swab testing for those with a medical need and the most critical key workers
Pillar 2: Commercial-swab testing for critical key workers in the NHS, social care and other sectors
Pillar 3: Antibody testing to help determine if people have immunity to coronavirus
Pillar 4: Surveillance testing to learn more about the disease and help develop new tests and treatments
Pillar 5: Diagnostics National Effort to build a mass-testing capacity at a completely new scale

..
we have undertaken one of the highest number of tests in Europe, after Italy, Spain and Germany. But our testing efforts face big challenges that we now need to overcome. This strategy sets out how.
..

Our ultimate goal is that anyone who needs a test should have one. We will get there through a phased approach, starting with patients who need the test, expanding to NHS workers and their families as we are now doing, then other critical key workers as we ramp up further, and then expanding to the wider community over time.
..

Just as our top end manufacturers have joined the national effort to build ventilators, so our life sciences companies will do the same for testing. UK pharmaceutical giants which don’t have a tradition of diagnostics, are now working with our world leading but smaller diagnostics companies, to build a British diagnostics industry at scale.
..

The Government is setting the challenge to itself and to the whole system industry, academia, the NHS to immediately scale up our testing levels to 100,000 tests a day from all five pillars of the strategy, across the UK by the end of this month. This is a huge ambition. Currently, we are delivering around 10,000 swab tests per day. And we will continue to scale up our ambition beyond this to 250,000 tests a day from all five pillars

Rather than as mentioned in the press conference a "target" or did he commit to it? here the 100k tests per day is being called a "challenge".

It is a massive paper, anyone wanting to know more can go read it at the link below.

from 04/04/2020 Coronavirus (COVID-19): scaling up testing programmes

 

[Callie]

Digging deeper into this paper it would appear that those with undetectable antibody counts were very mild cases. Older cohorts developed a stronger antibody response. This was still strong a fortnight after recovery. That makes sense and is better news as regards the possibilities for a useful vaccine.

I'm not sure if this is what is implicated (but late for me to try to read the paper ) but there was talk of antibody production being expected at 10-14 days after the onset of symptoms but perhaps 14 days onwards is a better time to test??

Edit: skim read it - the above comment from me not relevant - would be interesting to know if they retested the group with low antibody levels again a bit later

 

[Callie]

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Scaling up our testing programmes
More detail following my link above
The link leads to a pdf

Rather than as mentioned in the press conference a "target" or did he commit to it? here the 100k tests per day is being called a "challenge".

It is a massive paper, anyone wanting to know more can go read it at the link below.

from 04/04/2020 Coronavirus (COVID-19): scaling up testing programmes

I think the second pillar when they say "commercial testing" might actually be where research labs and university labs attempt to perform testing on NHS/key worker staff samples. I'm not sure but it might be a regulatory loophole which means they are not working as medical laboratories ?? I dunno, I might be imagining/extrapolating

 

[2hats]

I'm not sure if this is what is implicated (but late for me to try to read the paper ) but there was talk of antibody production being expected at 10-14 days after the onset of symptoms but perhaps 14 days onwards is a better time to test??

Edit: skim read it - the above comment from me not relevant - would be interesting to know if they retested the group with low antibody levels again a bit later

They tested from days 4-24 and saw antibodies emerge around day 10 and variously sustained out to day 24 - illustrated in figure 2.

 

[prunus]

Edit: skim read it - the above comment from me not relevant - would be interesting to know if they retested the group with low antibody levels again a bit later

They did, 2 weeks after discharge, no change.

 

[weltweit]

Southampton team develops respirator for frontline medical staff

Developed from scratch in just one week the co-called ‘PeRSo’ system uses a fan to draw air through a High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filter that is delivered to the wearer via an enclosed hood or face mask.
..

Developed in collaboration with engineers from the National Oceanography Centre, McLaren, Kemp Sails, and Southampton manufacturing firm Baynhams, the system as already passed first-stage ‘sniff’ tests where a strong-tasting vapour is sprayed around the air inlet to see whether the user can detect it, and no penetration occurred.
..

If the tests are successful, the design will also be published open-specification so it would be available to other manufacturers and people in need around the world.
..
The group said that is also exploring the development of a prototype respirator for the developing world that could be made from components available to low-resource countries.

from 06/04/2020 Southampton team develops respirator for frontline medical staff | The Engineer

 

[ricbake]

From the briefing today I understood Patrick Valence to infer he was expecting the average number of deaths to remain the same for the next 2 weeks at least....
Trying to get my head around that meaning 12,000 people to die and that just in hospital.

 

[weltweit]

I thought it might be useful to have a link to Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) as they are the body behind the Chief Scientific Officer.

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) provides scientific and technical advice to support government decision makers during emergencies.

www.gov.uk

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) provides scientific and technical advice to support government decision makers during emergencies.

www.gov.uk

 

[SpookyFrank]

From the briefing today I understood Patrick Valence to infer he was expecting the average number of deaths to remain the same for the next 2 weeks at least....
Trying to get my head around that meaning 12,000 people to die and that just in hospital.

That would mean over a month of lockdown before we even saw a decline in the death rate. That would be catastrophic for public morale and for the prospects of maintaining lockdown for the length of time it's likely to be needed. Then there's the hospital staff, the burden it will place on them doesn't really bear thinking about.

In short, fuck

 

[2hats]

Likely the lockdown won't get relaxed for about another 3 weeks. Then, just as they are chomping at the bit, the case and death figures that reflect activity this weekend will arrive...

 

[weltweit]

SPI-M-O: Consensus view on behavioural and social interventions

4. It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity. These would need to be in place for at least most of a year. Under such as policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures.

from 16/03/2020 pdf https://assets.publishing.service.g...w-on-behavioural-and-social-interventions.pdf

from Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE): Coronavirus (COVID-19) response

 

[ricbake]

The flu pandemic planning of eight and a half years ago - I wonder how much this has been used as the basis of Government policy

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf

 

[platinumsage]

Prof Chris Whitty: How to Control a Pandemic - A 2018 lecture which gives some insight into how he was expecting to approach this, which was very flu-focused.