Covid19 UK News, science and policy

[elbows]

As a general guide, I'd say only post in this thread if you have news with a link. Think of it more as a record of news that relates to the epidemic, the modelling and the science, rather than more general stuff about lockdown etc, with only very occasional and brief follow-up discussion. Thread merging generally makes things worse, if it happens to this thread then dont expect me to stick around.

Coronavirus: NI could see 3,000 deaths in 'first wave'

The first minister compares the "sobering statistic" to number of lives lost in the Troubles.

www.bbc.co.uk

Northern Ireland could see 3,000 deaths in a "first wave" of the coronavirus pandemic, the Department of Health has warned.

Expert modelling has indicated there could be second wave later in 2020 in the absence of a vaccine or sufficient population immunity.

The study indicates the first wave will peak between 6 and 20 April.

So far 30 people of 689 who have tested positive for Covid-19 in Northern Ireland have died.

In the UK, 2,352 people (out of nearly 30,000 who tested positive) are known to have died, while there have been 71 deaths in the Republic of Ireland.

 

[mauvais]

563 UK deaths today: UK coronavirus live: hospital death toll rises by 563 in a day, taking total to 2,352

I wonder how much of this is down to the weekend before last.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

563 UK deaths today: UK coronavirus live: hospital death toll rises by 563 in a day, taking total to 2,352

I wonder how much of this is down to the weekend before last.

I've been wondering how much damage that caused. The scarier thought is that it is still too early for its effects to be showing up fully yet in the death rates, that that spike has yet to be reached.

 

[brogdale]

Could be. I'm just going with wait and see at the moment, I have no real thoughts of my own about the timing at this stage. Except to say I'll certainly be hoping to see something by then, and would hope to see it earlier if they keep giving us hospital admission numbers. And we'll know more about some other countries before then.

FWIW, on yesterday's C4News they interviewed Professor Robert Lechler who appeared to confirm that the lag from contracting Covid-19 & fatality is typically 3 to 4 weeks & that the impact of the policy pivot to social distancing will not be seen in the death rates for another 10 to 14 days.

Looks like it will be mid April before we see the end of the Johnson legacy not to act.

From 6.45



<span class="hanging-lsquo">‘</span>There will be an increased number of cases over the next week or maybe two weeks’ – Sir Robert Lechler

 

[elbows]

LONDON (Reuters) - The United Kingdom’s coronoavirus death toll rose 24 percent to 2,921 as of April 1.

As of 0800 GMT on April 2, a total of 163,194 people had been tested of which 33,718 tested positive, the health ministry said.

“Of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 2,921 have sadly died,” the ministry said.
NHS England said that of the 561 people who died in English hospitals in the previous 24-hour cycle, 44 had no underlying health conditions. The age range of those without underlying health conditions was 25 to 100 years old.

UK coronavirus death toll rises to 2,921, up 24% in a day

The United Kingdom's coronoavirus death toll rose 24 percent to 2,921 as of April 1.

www.reuters.com

 

[killer b]

563 UK deaths today: UK coronavirus live: hospital death toll rises by 563 in a day, taking total to 2,352

I wonder how much of this is down to the weekend before last.

It's the Cheltenham Festival peak this week. Sunny weekend on the beach peak is the week after next.

 

[Teaboy]

The message about those dying without pre-existing conditions and in lower age groups really needs to get out. I can't help feeling all this pre-existing condition stuff clearly designed not to panic the population has led to more deaths.

 

[mauvais]

It's the Cheltenham Festival peak this week. Sunny weekend on the beach peak is the week after next.

That's maybe longer than the typically recognised individual incubation period, so how do you figure that? I can see that it might be about Nth wave propagation, not just how many people met someone and got it that weekend; just wondering what your logic is.

 

[killer b]

That's maybe longer than the typically recognised individual incubation period, so how do you figure that? I can see that it might be about Nth wave propagation, not just how many people met someone and got it that weekend; just wondering what your logic is.

A week - 14 days incubation, then a further 10 to 14 days between symptoms first appearing and death I was reading somewhere. But mostly it was a joke tbh.

 

[killer b]

That said, there's this story about Andrew Parker-Bowles this week

Andrew Parker Bowles's Diagnosis Brings Coronavirus Even Closer to the Royal Family

Despite their entangled relationships in the 1970s, he and Princess Anne have remained close friends. Did their days at the Cheltenham Festival last month put the royals at risk?

www.vanityfair.com

 

[brogdale]

That's maybe longer than the typically recognised individual incubation period, so how do you figure that? I can see that it might be about Nth wave propagation, not just how many people met someone and got it that weekend; just wondering what your logic is.

Prof explains timescale here:
Covid19 UK News, science and policy
Essentially, killer b is spot on; it's about 3 -4 weeks on average between infection & death.

 

[mauvais]

I ask because in that Italian report we had a look at, it was four days from symptoms to hospital and then four days from hospital to dead. Add whatever it is on for pre-symptom incubation. Four weeks seems like a while but IDK.

 

[brogdale]

I ask because in that Italian report we had a look at, it was four days from symptoms to hospital and then four days from hospital to dead. Add whatever it is on for pre-symptom incubation. Four weeks seems like a while but IDK.

Posted these above:





with total, mean, days infection to death of 22.8 days.

 

[mauvais]

This is what I was on about: il virus: covid-19 in italy - section 7 of that report which you can probably understand even if you speak no Italian.

Maybe it's skewed by demographics like the oft-mentioned difference in median age.

 

[elbows]

Slides from the last government press conference:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877775/COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides_-_02_04_2020.pdf

Spreadsheet containing data from the same:

Datasets to accompany coronavirus press conference: 2 April 2020

I use this page to see when new versions are published:

Search

Find content from government

www.gov.uk

The one I pay closest attention to right now:

 

[elbows]

I was searching for a high quality, really detailed explanation of the governments '5 pillars' testing strategy to put in this thread, but I didnt find one, so this will have to do:

Coronavirus: Matt Hancock sets aim of 100,000 tests a day by end of April

Just over 10,000 people were tested in the UK on Wednesday, as coronavirus deaths rose to 2,921.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Porton Down serological surveys of the population interest me most in many ways as there are one or two big unanswered questions on this front. I am bound to mention the results here once the first set are published in the coming days.

I dont think that BBC article even mentions the Porton Down stuff explicitly, so here is another article that goes into more detail, but I suspect gets some bits totally wrong (eg they claim there is a target for 100,000 antibody home blood tests per day by the end of april, but that target is actually for all tests combined)

UK Government reveals new strategy to massively increase Covid-19 tests

Cabinet minister Matt Hancock explained why the UK had been so much slower than other countries to increase testing

www.walesonline.co.uk

By the way, if I was listening properly to what they said yesterday, this is the type of testing Porton Down will be doing:

ELISA - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[elbows]

Todays press conference slides and data:

Slides and datasets to accompany coronavirus press conference: 3 April 2020

Press conference slides and datasets used by Matt Hancock.

www.gov.uk

Note that I dont get excited by one day fluctuations, so as ever need to see more data before there are really any new trends to speak about.

 

[elbows]

This weeks ONS data starts to show a picture. Although this data will eventually be more complete than the daily numbers we get, the lag is quite bad so its mostly only going to be really useful later.

 

[elbows]

The daily number 10 slides for hospital admissions are now for GB rather than England. Although I dont think they have any such data for Northern Ireland yet..

Slides, datasets and transcripts to accompany coronavirus press conferences

Slides, datasets and transcripts from press conferences at 10 Downing Street in response to coronavirus.

www.gov.uk

 

[weltweit]

Yes elbows I noticed initially their transport chart was London-centric with travelling by TFL rather than UK stats. Perhaps it is hard to get national figures, but I bet Google could provide them.

 

[elbows]

There was a new slide today.

Slides and datasets to accompany coronavirus press conference: 7 April 2020

Press conference slides and datasets used by Sir Patrick Vallance.

www.gov.uk

Some of the updated, more accurate historical NHS England hospital deaths data that I have been experimenting with and talking about today on the main UK thread is something I will probably start regularly posting on this thread once I have settled on a format.

 

[bimble]

This looks like potentially terrible news if it’s right: Recovery from mild cases can leave people with antibody levels so low that they can’t even be detected.

Low antibody levels raise questions about coronavirus reinfection risk

Scientists in Shanghai say some recovered patients show no signs of the neutralising proteins.

www.scmp.com

 

[weltweit]

Here is a pdf paper on UK Governments testing strategy, including the 5 pillars.

Scaling up our testing programmes
Department of Health and Social Care
04/04/2020 https://assets.publishing.service.g...121/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-strategy.pdf

 

[2hats]

This looks like potentially terrible news if it’s right: Recovery from mild cases can leave people with antibody levels so low that they can’t even be detected.

Low antibody levels raise questions about coronavirus reinfection risk

Scientists in Shanghai say some recovered patients show no signs of the neutralising proteins.

www.scmp.com

This, I think, is the relevant (not yet peer reviewed) preprint - 'Neutralizing antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in a COVID-19 recovered patient cohort and their implications', DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365.

 

[bimble]

This, I think, is the relevant (not yet peer reviewed) preprint - 'Neutralizing antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in a COVID-19 recovered patient cohort and their implications', DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365.

I don’t know how to read things like that.
Is it likely that this will make both antibody tests and a vaccine harder ?

 

[2hats]

I don’t know how to read things like that.
Is it likely that this will make both antibody tests and a vaccine harder ?

If the research is borne out by further investigations then the answer to that is - yes, it could make producing an effective vaccine difficult, if not impossible. Antibody tests would work (they will still tell you if antibodies are present or not), but you couldn't conclude from the results that a given subject had not previously been infected.

I should add that it is very early days for antibody/long term immunity research. It's going to take months for the situation to become clear.

 

[2hats]

Interesting comments on testing/surveillance from Gabriel Leung (HKU) in the Coronavirus Testing Select Committee, live on BBC Parliament right now:

Watch BBC Parliament live - BBC iPlayer

Watch BBC Parliament live on BBC iPlayer.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

The daily slide on hospitals has now been more accurately titled.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/878711/COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides_-_08_04_2020.pdf

And there is now a new one for numbers in critical care.

 

[2hats]

This, I think, is the relevant (not yet peer reviewed) preprint - 'Neutralizing antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in a COVID-19 recovered patient cohort and their implications', DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365.

Digging deeper into this paper it would appear that those with undetectable antibody counts were very mild cases. Older cohorts developed a stronger antibody response. This was still strong a fortnight after recovery. That makes sense and is better news as regards the possibilities for a useful vaccine.

 

[weltweit]

NIPPY 3+ sleep apnoea device converted for Covid-19 frontline

A sleep apnoea machine being phased out of service can be modified into a ventilator to treat people with Covid-19, claim engineers and scientists in Leeds.
..
The modification to the NIPPY 3+ has come about following a collaboration between clinical staff, engineers and physicists at Leeds Teaching Hospitals Trust (LTHT) and academics and technologists at Leeds University.

..
The machine operates in a CPAP (constant positive airway pressure) mode, ensuring that the pressure inside the mask is slightly raised, keeping the patient’s airway open and making it easier for them to breathe.  According to Leeds University, it provides enriched oxygen of between 40 to 60 per cent.
..

There are an estimated 100 of the devices in Leeds hospitals and there could be many more similar devices across the NHS that could be modified to provide respiratory support to very ill patients.
..
It is further claimed that because it is a modification to a device, it does not have to go through a full regulatory approval process.
..

Also, there was evidence from China that many seriously ill patients did not need full ventilation, which requires sedation, but an intermediate level of support which could be provided by a CPAP device.

Professor Kapur, said: “The decision was then to move onto the next iteration of the re-modelled device, and the changing requirements actually made those modifications easier.
..

the solution we eventually arrived at is much simpler. You have to change some of the settings, filters and the way oxygen reaches the patient. It is now a fix that hospital teams can undertake themselves using equipment which is readily available.”

from 08/04/2020 NIPPY 3+ sleep apnoea device converted for Covid-19 frontline | The Engineer