Covid19 UK News, science and policy

[xenon]

As of Monday 30/03/2020, as we enter the second week of lockdown. It's been suggested by a number of posters that a separate thread to contain purely news and informational posts would make this rolling story easier to follow.

So I thought I'd start this one for Covid19 news, UK government response, data etc. Please keep the inevitable chat arising from these issues on the other lengthy thread.

Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Have done so, but as I said when it first appeared, for me, this is the key quote:- I don't sentimentalize these things. I can accept hard-headed calculations for not building shelters, both pre-WW2 and in the Cold War. In both cases, it would've been a massive undertaking of dubious value (the...

www.urban75.net

 

[elbows]

Cheers for this attempt. Dont know if it will work, will give it a go anyway. Suggest we try to stick to the serious, core news about the epidemic, numbers and modelling here.

Coronavirus: UK spread shows early signs of slowing – key adviser

Epidemiologist Prof Neil Ferguson points to a decreased rate of hospital admissions

www.theguardian.com

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “In the UK, we can see some early signs of slowing in some indicators. Less so in deaths because deaths are lagged by long time from when the measures come into force.

“But we look at the numbers of new hospital admissions today, for instance, that does seem to be slowing down a little bit now. It’s not yet plateaued as the numbers are increasing each day but the rate of that increase has slowed.

“We see similar patterns in a number of European countries.”

Ferguson also said that “maybe a third, maybe 40%” of people do not get any symptoms but there was no evidence to back up claims that the vast majority of people are asymptomatic.

He said it appeared that 3-5% of people in central London could have been infected, but the figure may be higher in hotspots, while the figure for the country at large is more likely to be 2-3%.

Ferguson said the next crucial step was the antibody test that can tell whether people have already had the virus and is in the “final stages of validation”, with hopes that it could be operational within days.

 

[elbows]

Important note from a lobby briefing:

• Current death statistics are from hospitals only, and from tomorrow the ONS will begin collating whole-UK figures including deaths in the community on a weekly basis.

From 28m ago 13:10

 

[elbows]

Useful detail about the UK death stats, including changes to ONS reporting of such stats in future.

What do the statistics really tell us about UK coronavirus deaths?

The figures do not give a real-time snapshot of how many are dying.

www.wandsworthguardian.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Todays numbers regarding hospital deaths (note these ones are England, not UK):

59 more deaths in England
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus is now 1,284, a rise of 159, NHS England said.
Those who died were aged between 32 and 98 years old.
Almost all patients had underlying health conditions – the four people who did not were aged between 56 and 87 years old.
NHS England confirmed their families had been informed.

From 15:23 of BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52087619

 

[elbows]

Todays UK press conference:

The UK's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance says there has been a "dramatic fall-off" in the use of the London Underground, as well as a decrease in the use of buses, national rail, and motor vehicles.

He says it shows the measures being put in place are "making a difference".

The UK's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance says he expects the social distancing measures being put in place will reduce the number of cases of transmission of coronavirus in the community and decrease the number of cases overall.

Pointing to a graph detailing new cases of coronavirus, he says we shouldn't pay "too much attention" to day-to-day fluctuations in figures.

"We need to look over time and see what's happening," he says.

He adds that cases are being detected with a positive test, so the graph is an underestimate of the total number of cases.

Eight thousand people have been admitted to hospital since the middle of March, the UK's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance says.

"That's gone up pretty much the same amount each day for the last couple of days," he says, "which may suggest that we're already beginning to see some effects through."

He says this also suggests "we're not on a fast acceleration at the moment".

About half of the hospital admissions are in London, he says.

But he says there are cases everywhere in the UK and so the message of "stay at home" applies everywhere.

We now come to questions - the first comes from the BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg. She asks if the restrictions are working.
Sir Patrick says the measures that have been taken are having a very big effect on contacts between people and points to the numbers using transport.
However, he says it is "premature" to put a time on how long the measures will last for.
Dominic Raab adds that the more members of the public follow the guidance, the quicker we will be able to ease these restriction.

The UK's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance says the UK is "tracking alongside France" and behind Italy in terms of deaths from coronavirus.

"The measures we're taking will stop the transmission, delay the transmission," he says.

From BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52087619

 

[elbows]

A note I made from one of the questions to Vallance and his response:

Hospital admission rates of around 1000 per day. Expects that to continue, maybe go up a bit*, expect to see it stabilise in 2-3 weeks before it can come down.

* = probably some sugar coating.

 

[baldrick]

Following a guy on Twitter doing some basic but useful calculations on the daily figures that get released. I think he updates within a few minutes of the new figures coming out.

 

[2hats]

Starts today - free MOOC from Imperial for those interested in understanding the scientific thinking and analysis behind this and other infectious disease modelling.

Science Matters: Let's Talk About COVID-19

Welcome to ‘Science Matters: Let's Talk about COVID-19’, from the Jameel Institute at Imperial College London. The outbreak of the Novel ... Enroll for free.

www.coursera.org

 

[platinumsage]

Not sure if this is the right thread because this is history now, but details of deliberations of committee advising UK Government back in January and February:

 

[ricbake]

Not sure if this is the right thread because this is history now, but details of deliberations of committee advising UK Government back in January and February:

The link in that Tweet doesn't work but the information will be in here somewhere...

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) provides scientific and technical advice to support government decision makers during emergencies.

www.gov.uk

 

[elbows]

If its the NERVTAG minutes then Box

 

[MrSki]

For the scientists out there & article published today in Nature might be of interest.

Structural basis of receptor recognition by SARS-CoV-2

Structural basis of receptor recognition by SARS-CoV-2 - Nature

The crystal structure of the receptor-binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 spike in complex with human ACE2, compared with the receptor-binding domain of SARS-CoV, sheds light on the structural features that increase its binding affinity to ACE2.

www.nature.com

 

[elbows]

I posted this on another thread where we can chat about it, but for the record here in this thread, here is info about the UK ONS deaths data that was published today. It has its own form of lag so ends up covering an earlier period than the other numbers we get.

2h ago 10:00
1h ago 10:50

The ONS has published the first of its new weekly bulletin which will include all instances where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate and will include non-hospital deaths.

A total of 210 deaths in England and Wales that occurred up to and including 20 March (and which were registered up to 25 March) had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics.

This compares with 170 coronavirus-related deaths reported by NHS England and Public Health Wales up to and including March 20.

A quick note on the difference between the figures published by the ONS and those that have been published thus far by NHS England and Public Health Wales:

The ONS death figures are based on the number of deaths registered in England and Wales where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate as “deaths involving Covid-19”. The number includes all deaths, not just those in hospitals, although there is usually a delay of at least five days between a death occurring and registration.

The figures published by NHS England and Public Health Wales are for deaths only among hospital patients who have tested positive for Covid-19, but include deaths that have not yet been registered.

Separate figures from the ONS show that for the 108 deaths registered up to 20 March where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, 45 (or 42%) were people aged 85 and over while 34 (31%) were people aged 75-84.

A total of 21 deaths (19%) were people aged 65-74, seven (6%) were people aged 45-64 and one death was aged 15-44 years.

The actual ONS releases are here, next one due in a weeks time.

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available. Includes the most up-to-date figures available for deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19).

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[wayward bob]

Starts today - free MOOC from Imperial for those interested in understanding the scientific thinking and analysis behind this and other infectious disease modelling.

Science Matters: Let's Talk About COVID-19

Welcome to ‘Science Matters: Let's Talk about COVID-19’, from the Jameel Institute at Imperial College London. The outbreak of the Novel ... Enroll for free.

www.coursera.org

thanks for this, is way more interesting/better/less panicky than watching the news

(and i don't have anything riding on looking at the maths and going, ah well, that'll be maths then )

 

[strung out]

BBC reporting an increase of 393 deaths today.

 

[cupid_stunt]

BBC reporting an increase of 393 deaths today.

I think/hope that figure include the new stats of people who have died in the community, which wasn't being included until now, and is back dated, IIRC that was around 220 extra deaths.

 

[prunus]

I think/hope that figure include the new stats of people who have died in the community, which wasn't being included until now, and is back dated, IIRC that was around 220 extra deaths.

Yes, the number who have “died in hospitals” - ie comparable to the previous numbers - is 381 I think.

 

[mauvais]

BBC reporting an increase of 393 deaths today.

Who was it (some senior scientific figure) who said the UK had likely peaked? This struck me as enormously stupid.

Edit: I think it was Vallance as part of the 'not a fast acceleration' stuff.

 

[elbows]

I think/hope that figure include the new stats of people who have died in the community, which wasn't being included until now, and is back dated, IIRC that was around 220 extra deaths.

No, the 210 ONS ones would have included ones already reported by the NHS.

According to new figures, a total of 210 deaths in England and Wales that occurred up to and including March 20 had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate. This compares with 170 coronavirus-related deaths reported by NHS England and Public Health Wales up to and including March 20.

Coronavirus death toll 20% higher than NHS figures, new data suggests

The new figures are based on deaths registered 'where Covid-19 is mentioned anywhere on the death certificate'.

metro.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Who was it (some senior scientific figure) who said the UK had likely peaked? This struck me as enormously stupid.

I am not aware of that claim. A possible peak at easter has been mentioned of late.

 

[mauvais]

I am not aware of that claim. A possible peak at easter has been mentioned of late.

Perhaps peaked was the wrong phrase. But for example this, from yesterday: Coronavirus: UK spread shows early signs of slowing – key adviser

 

[elbows]

Perhaps peaked was the wrong phrase. But for example this, from yesterday: Coronavirus: UK spread shows early signs of slowing – key adviser

Its a very specific claim.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “In the UK, we can see some early signs of slowing in some indicators. Less so in deaths because deaths are lagged by long time from when the measures come into force.

“But we look at the numbers of new hospital admissions today, for instance, that does seem to be slowing down a little bit now. It’s not yet plateaued as the numbers are increasing each day but the rate of that increase has slowed.

Its inevitable that they are looking for something to encourage people that lockdown is working. I ignore claims based on one days data. He has better access to data than me.

Latest press conference slide indicates that it is probably a good idea to look at those sorts of numbers on a regional as well as national basis, and to give it more time.

 

[weltweit]

It would be interesting to know what the precise shortages are that are restricting UK virus testing to such a low level. At today's news conference the comparison was made with Germany in a question - a question that remained largely unanswered.

 

[elbows]

Coronavirus: UK considers virus-tracing app to ease lockdown

Study describes how app would alert citizens if someone they came into contact with tests positive.

www.bbc.co.uk

AAAS

science.sciencemag.org

I'm sure the ethics and implications of this one will run and run.

 

[Supine]

I'm calling bollocks on the government indicating some kind of plateau in number of cases. If the numbers are staying level that is because they have hit a limit on the number of tests they can do in a day imo.

 

[brogdale]

I am not aware of that claim. A possible peak at easter has been mentioned of late.

After taking a brief look at some figures on mean incubation and infection duration (symptom onset to death) it looks to me as though it will be mid April (16th) before it may be possible to discern any meaningful impact from the decision to go to lockdown on 24/03/20.

Unless I'm missing something...?


Source.



Source.

 

[elbows]

Could be. I'm just going with wait and see at the moment, I have no real thoughts of my own about the timing at this stage. Except to say I'll certainly be hoping to see something by then, and would hope to see it earlier if they keep giving us hospital admission numbers. And we'll know more about some other countries before then.

 

[magneze]

I'm calling bollocks on the government indicating some kind of plateau in number of cases. If the numbers are staying level that is because they have hit a limit on the number of tests they can do in a day imo.

View attachment 204267

Today's set of numbers is over 3k anyway, so no plateau unless today is the anomaly

 

[LDC]

Nasty jump in deaths today.

I'm really finding these threads confusing now, is this one the best place for this?

editor is there any way of sorting this sub-forum?