Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[weltweit]

This is just a nightmare. "More than 90 people who fully recovered from the novel coronavirus have tested positive for COVID-19 again" .. scientists in S Korea saying this is not about faulty tests but that the virus is 'reactivating' in people.

91 recovered virus patients test positive again: KCDC | Yonhap News Agency

SEOUL, April 10 (Yonhap) -- More than 90 people who fully recovered from the novel coronav...

en.yna.co.kr

My first thought was that perhaps there was a problem with the tests, but seeing as this is South Korea whose medical and scientific resources seem to have been excellent this seems unlikely.

 

[planetgeli]

Coronavirus deaths in Iran lead to mass burial pits, changing the way families mourn

The coronavirus has brought mass graves, devastated families and a change to Islamic burial rituals in Iran. The pandemic is changing how Iranians live and die.

www.latimes.com

March 13th. Oh noes. The Iranians can't cope. Mass graves and trenches.

Coronavirus: New York has more cases than any country

Photos emerge of workers in hazmat outfits stacking coffins in a mass grave in New York City.

www.bbc.co.uk

April 10th. Oh...dear. New York has more coronavirus cases than any country in the world. And are building mass graves and trenches.

On Hart Island, like they've always done. Only now prisoners from Rikers Island are no longer doing the job as they usually do, it's been contracted out.

 

[little_legs]

 

[SheilaNaGig]

Christ. Is that two rows of pine boxes buried two deep?

Looks about 100 coffins already in the ground there.

How the fuck would you go visit your loved one’s graveside? If there’s anyone left to grieve.

 

[SheilaNaGig]

They deal with the Hajj Cough every year and MERS was a legitimate threat and they have money. Why have they not dealt with this better?

 

[platinumsage]

Christ. Is that two rows of pine boxes buried two deep?

Looks about 100 coffins already in the ground there.

How the fuck would you go visit your loved one’s graveside? If there’s anyone left to grieve.

Unlike the usual denizens of graves on Hart Island, these are intended to be reinterred when the crisis is over. They decided this was preferable to 6+ month storage in refrigerated trucks

 

[Yossarian]

Christ. Is that two rows of pine boxes buried two deep?

Looks about 100 coffins already in the ground there.

How the fuck would you go visit your loved one’s graveside? If there’s anyone left to grieve.

City officials say that so far, only unclaimed bodies are being buried at Hart Island - where there's already around a million of them, going back many years - but they'll start burying more coronavirus victims there when the morgues and mortuaries are all full. They're apparently clearing the morgues of unclaimed bodies to make way for more coronavirus victims, a fleet of 80 refrigerated trucks, each with the capacity for 100 bodies, is also almost full.

 

[weltweit]

Some worldwide summary pages for anyone who is interested

Coronavirus Update (Live): 129,471,257 Cases and 2,828,154 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105

The European Respiratory Virus Surveillance Summary (ERVISS)

This interactive dashboard provides a weekly integrated epidemiological summary for influenza, RSV and SARS-CoV-2.

www.ecdc.europa.eu

 

[SheilaNaGig]

Thanks Yossarian platinumsage


* goes to google Hart Island *

 

[treelover]

Recall a Daily Mirror front page with photos of mass burials on it, baleful history, workhouses, prisons, etc, but fascinating historically.

 

[treelover]

Mafia distributes food to Italy's struggling residents

Organised crime groups offer support to quarantined families who have run out of cash

www.theguardian.com

Mafia chipping in to help

 

[sunnysidedown]

The Soapranos

 

[weltweit]

Haven't had much mention of France in this thread ..

12,210 deaths
Worldometers France Summary page France Coronavirus: 117,749 Cases and 12,210 Deaths - Worldometer

Coronavirus: the situation in Paris and île-de-France on April 10

In France, according to the latest report from the health authorities as for the COVID-19 pandemic, 12,210 people have died (8,044 deaths in hospitals and 4,166 in social-medical centers such as nursing homes). This Thursday April 9, 412 deaths have been recorded in hospitals in 24 hours and 929 deaths in social-medical centers in 48 hours.
..

It's the Ile-de-France region that is hit the more severely by the epidemic. As of April 9, 3,040 deaths have been reported in regional hospitals, +200 deaths these past 24 hours. There are currently 2,667 people in ICU (1% off). It's the first time the number of people in ICU is decreasing.
..
President Emmanuel Macron will address the French people on Monday April 13, 2020 at 8 p.m.. It will be the third time the President addresses on television since this health crisis has started in France. He's expected to tell more about the extension of confinement and decisions made by the government.
..

Paris mayor also says on France Info that 2 million facemasks made of fabric and washable and reusable "will be given to Parisians". They will be made by local companies and available within a few days.
..
After twenty days on lockdown in France, even though we're not at it yet, different deconfinement scenarios are being studied. Among the hypothesis, one is about a deconfinement per age order: the youngest, least vulnerable would be the first one to be allowed out again.
..

Christophe Castaner warns French tempted to go on Easter vacations: "You shall not go on holidays during confinement" he said on LCI.

from 10/04/2020 Coronavirus: the situation in Paris and île-de-France on April 10
So in France half as many again deaths have occurred in nursing homes as the total deaths in Hospital.

French death toll passes 10,000 (from 07/04/2020)

Latest figures show 10,238 people died from the virus since 1 March. In the past 24 hours, 607 deaths have been recorded in hospitals.

A further 820 deaths were recorded in nursing homes. However, they may have taken place over several days and are only now being added to the toll.

France has been under lockdown since 15 March, with fines for violations.
..
On Tuesday, Paris said it would ban people from exercising outdoors between 10:00 and 19:00 local time.

The new restriction came after a sunny weekend marked by large groups of people running and walking, despite police controls.
..

The epidemic is still in its "upward phase," Director of Health Jérôme Salomon said, with the number of daily deaths, hospitalisations and critical cases still going up. "The peak has not been reached," he said.

However, there are signs that the rate of growth is slowing.

from 07/04/2020 Death toll in France goes above 10,000

 

[weltweit]

Is France’s president fueling the hype over an unproven coronavirus treatment?

The highly politicized debate about the use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, two antimalarial drugs, to treat COVID-19 has reached an extreme in France, where two small trials purporting to show potential benefit were done.
..

The popular faith in hydroxychloroquine stands in stark contrast to the weakness of the data. Several studies of its efficacy against COVID-19 have delivered an equivocal or negative verdict, and it can have significant side effects, including heart arrhythmias. Raoult’s positive studies have been widely criticized for their limitations and methodological issues. The first included only 42 patients, and Raoult chose who received the drug or a placebo, a no-no in clinical research; the International Society of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy has distanced itself from the paper, published in the society’s International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. The second study, published as a preprint without peer review, didn’t have a control group at all.

from 10/04/2020 Is France’s president fueling the hype over an unproven coronavirus treatment?

There seems to be quite a controversy in France over these drugs with the population or at least a large proportion demanding them, science and medics disagreeing as to their efficacy and the only trials being compromised in various ways.

 

[teqniq]

Meanwhile also in France:

French police turn back private jet of holidaymakers from UK

Party of 10 flew into Marseille-Provence airport to be taken by helicopter to luxury Cannes villa

www.theguardian.com

A group of would-be holidaymakers who flew in a private jet from London to the Côte d’Azur in France have been turned back by police.

Seven men and three women arrived on the chartered aircraft to Marseille-Provence airport, where helicopters were waiting to fly them on to Cannes, where they had rented a luxury villa.

The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25, were refused permission to enter France and ordered by police to fly back to the UK....

 

[Saul Goodman]

Meanwhile also in Fance:

French police turn back private jet of holidaymakers from UK

Party of 10 flew into Marseille-Provence airport to be taken by helicopter to luxury Cannes villa

www.theguardian.com

Such a shame. Heart bleeds, etc.

 

[Anju]

An infection rate of less than 1% from a study based on testing 1500 people chosen as a representative sample of the general population. If accurate this sort of data has to be the end of any herd immunity policies.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/less-than-1-of-austria-infected-with-coronavirus-new-study-shows?

 

[spellbinder]

This is heart-wrenching

 

[elbows]

Thanks for the France info.

Singapore, where things are unfortunately turning out like I expected.

But Prof Dale Fisher, chair of the WHO's Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network and a professor at the National University of Singapore, told the BBC that whenever he heard people say Singapore was doing well, he'd reply: "So far."

"This is a really hard disease to contain," he says.

And on Tuesday evening, Singapore passed a new law, which - although it's not using the term - is effectively a partial national lockdown.

Everyone is prohibited from leaving their homes except for essential activities and exercise, with fines of up to S$10,000 ($7,000; £5,600) or six months in prison.

As for the 'Singapore is the gold standard' wankers (not on this forum), detail about what is happening there makes it clear what sort of country we are talking about.

But the alarming exponential rise in the last week has been around Singapore's migrant worker population - the hundreds of thousands of men from poorer countries employed in construction, shipping, and maintenance.

Singapore is utterly dependent on these workers to keep its economy operating, but they are jobs in which social distancing is all but impossible.

On top of that, the workers are required by law to live in dormitories - privately-run facilities which house up to 12 men per room, with shared bathroom, cooking and social facilities.

It seems almost inevitable that these dorms would become clusters, and indeed they did. Close to 500 cases have now been confirmed in several dormitory clusters - one facility alone makes up 15% of all cases nationally.

Coronavirus: Should the world worry about Singapore's virus surge?

With cases increasing in tightly-packed dormitories, experts say Singapore offers a salutary lesson.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[2hats]

An infection rate of less than 1% from a study based on testing 1500 people chosen as a representative sample of the general population. If accurate this sort of data has to be the end of any herd immunity policies.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/less-than-1-of-austria-infected-with-coronavirus-new-study-shows?

Caution: that survey was conducted using a PCR testing regime that looks for the viral RNA and not one that looks for antibodies (which would better indicate immunity and prior exposure). That particular test manufacturer (Roche) also clearly states:

"Positive results are indicative of SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection, but may not represent the presence of transmissible virus. Negative results do not preclude SARS-CoV-2 infection and should not be used as the sole basis for patient management decisions."

 

[Anju]

Caution: that survey was conducted using a PCR testing regime that looks for the viral RNA and not one that looks for antibodies (which would better indicate immunity and prior exposure). That particular test manufacturer (Roche) also clearly states:

"Positive results are indicative of SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection, but may not represent the presence of transmissible virus. Negative results do not preclude SARS-CoV-2 infection and should not be used as the sole basis for patient management decisions."

I don't think any test is going to give close to 100% accurate results when trying to work out infection rates.

The antibody tests, as far as I can find out, do not give accurate results until a certain time after a person has recovered, so would give an even less accurate picture unless done twice with sufficient time between them. Also would all tests for this coronavirus not have a disclaimer as they are relatively new and untested.

I just can't work out how a snapshot from 5 days testing could be used to estimate total number of people who have been infected over say a month. I don't think they have attempted to do that buy I have no real understanding of statistics so may well be completely wrong.

 

[teqniq]

George Monbiot bang on the money here imo:

 

[weltweit]

A little more on France

Business owners fear they may not survive COVID-19 crisis

France is rolling out emergency measures to help small businesses survive. The boost includes tax relief and a "solidarity fund". But some business owners fear that will not be enough to reopen their doors once the lockdown is over.

from 04/04/2020 France: Business owners fear they may not survive COVID-19 crisis
Same issues people are finding in other developed countries that have instituted lockdowns although trade was already down for many retailers. 04/04 seems a little late to be taking measures perhaps.

France is officially working on ‘Stop Covid’ contact-tracing app

France’s health minister Olivier Véran and digital minister Cédric O have officially announced that the French government is working on a smartphone app to slow the spread of COVID-19. The government is putting a stamp of approval on the Pan-European Privacy-Preserving Proximity Tracing (PEPP-PT) project but remains cautious about what to expect from an app.
..

They’re working on an open standard to develop contact-tracing apps. Those apps would rely on Bluetooth Low Energy to identify other phones running the same app. If, at some point, you are near an infected person, you would be notified.

from 08/04/2020 TechCrunch is now a part of Verizon Media

I know in China and South Korea they have used smart phones as part of the tools to manage this outbreak, looks like they are looking seriously at it in France. I have no idea if it is being worked on in the UK.

 

[2hats]

I don't think any test is going to give close to 100% accurate results when trying to work out infection rates.

Correct. No tests will provide 100% accurate results.

The antibody tests, as far as I can find out, do not give accurate results until a certain time after a person has recovered, so would give an even less accurate picture unless done twice with sufficient time between them. Also would all tests for this coronavirus not have a disclaimer as they are relatively new and untested.

Antibody tests will provide an answer (to within the degree of accuracy of the particular test concerned) providing the antibodies they are looking for are present. If those antibodies don't persist for something like at least a year (better: more) then we've got problems.

 

[2hats]

I have no idea if it is being worked on in the UK.

Several groups in the UK are looking into such. NHSX are working on a contact tracing app.

 

[Anju]

we've got problems

This is probably the most accurate thing anyone can say right now.

 

[2hats]

Interestingly, on the subject of tracker apps, analysis arising from the Kings College 'COVID Symptom Tracker' app, is suggesting about 10% of the (UK) population have perhaps been infected. Again, there could be a factor of up to two error there to account for asymptomatic cases since subjects will to some degree be self-selecting. This adds weight to the idea that a few (sub 15 say) million have probably been infected.

 

[weltweit]

Interestingly, on the subject of tracker apps, analysis arising from the Kings College 'COVID Symptom Tracker' app, is suggesting about 10% of the (UK) population have perhaps been infected. Again, there could be a factor of up to two error there to account for asymptomatic cases since subjects will to some degree be self-selecting. This adds weight to the idea that a few (sub 15 say) million have probably been infected.

Interesting initiative, I sort of heard about it but didn't register it for some reason. Big take-up of the app.

 

[2hats]

At the risk of making a pearoast, has anyone linked to the google mobility reports yet?

COVID-19 Community Mobility Report

See how your community is moving around differently due to COVID-19

www.google.com

Search any country and region and download a PDF showing how the about of movement has changed due to covid 19 in different categories of places, such as residential, retail, parks, etc... no doubt some interesting comparisons between countries will emerge from this data.

These have been updated in the past 24 hours. For the UK mostly no huge changes apart from a clear uptick in activity around parks/beaches/public gardens coincident with improving weather.

 

[2hats]

Just having a browse of the publicised vaccine research programmes and it looks like there are some 30+ different SARS-Cov-2 vaccines being worked on, and at least one immunotherapy. Obviously not all will deliver.