Saw a tweet thread earlier of a health worker trying to get themselves tested in seattle area due to symptoms and preexisting medical conditions. They basically couldn't.
And they work with at risk groups.
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Saw a tweet thread earlier of a health worker trying to get themselves tested in seattle area due to symptoms and preexisting medical conditions. They basically couldn't.
And they work with at risk groups.
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
It’s not looking great.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
This thing just spreads and spreads.
11 more from the US evacuation of Princess Diamond tested positive
4 Americans exposed to virus on cruise ship leave quarantine
Four of the Americans who were exposed to a new virus on a Japanese cruise ship and were being monitored at an Omaha hospital have been released from quarantine. The University of Nebraska Medical Center says two of them never tested positive for the new coronavirus and were cleared for release...
nebraska.tv
Spain's health authorities have banned doctors and nurses from attending group professional events for the next three weeks as a precaution. But La Liga will carry on as normal.
Suspend all but a fraction of most necessary travel & social contact for a month and half (farming, supplies, energy, mining) and perhaps it can be severely slowed. Global ban on non-trade international trade. Otherwise the cost in lives and economic results will be much higher in the end.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Pence started going on about blood tests the other day, seemingly unaware that the current tests are swab-based.
Supine
Newt Member
He held a prayer session at his first team meeting. Maybe he has some insider info from above.
Yuwipi Woman
Whack-A-Mole Queen
That is some seriously professional ass-kissing, right there.
Fez909
toilet expert
I've just read an article that said SARS was brought under control by hygeine (hand washing, etc) and higher temperatures and humidity in the Summer.
I didn't know that humidity had an effect on viruses, and if I had to guess, I would have said more humid is worse - meaning greater spread. Turns out this is not the case.
So, could this explain anything with regards to SARS-CoV2?
I think Northern Italy is humid all year around, so no good news there. What about Iran in winter? I'd have guessed dry, but have no idea.
I didn't know that humidity had an effect on viruses, and if I had to guess, I would have said more humid is worse - meaning greater spread. Turns out this is not the case.
So, could this explain anything with regards to SARS-CoV2?
I think Northern Italy is humid all year around, so no good news there. What about Iran in winter? I'd have guessed dry, but have no idea.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I saw humidity being said to have an impact when I was looking at studies about coronaviruses ability to survive on hard surfaces.
Earlier in the outbreak, when the seasonal hopes came up the easiest way to dampen them was to go on about Singapore having spread despite the sort of weather they have there (tropical climate).
But since Singapores numbers have not grown in the same way as other places, I'm not sure I would rush to that point anymore. I dont really know what the full and true story is with Singapore, so its currently on my list of countries where I dont want to make assumptions or try to search too hard to find all the valid explanations for the pattern seen there. It might turn out to be really important for the bigger global picture, but I will just have to wait till something becomes clear, or a revelation, or sufficient time to pass.
Earlier in the outbreak, when the seasonal hopes came up the easiest way to dampen them was to go on about Singapore having spread despite the sort of weather they have there (tropical climate).
But since Singapores numbers have not grown in the same way as other places, I'm not sure I would rush to that point anymore. I dont really know what the full and true story is with Singapore, so its currently on my list of countries where I dont want to make assumptions or try to search too hard to find all the valid explanations for the pattern seen there. It might turn out to be really important for the bigger global picture, but I will just have to wait till something becomes clear, or a revelation, or sufficient time to pass.
elbows
Well-Known Member
When draining the swamp was touted, little did we realise that this was to be done via an army of enemas. Still, there is no shortage of supply of arseholes to carry this burden.
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
One study I quoted above (Coronavirus: Cases triple as infection spreads to Beijing and Shanghai) said:
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
There will be a lot of this in the UK too no doubt. So many precarious workers with no recourse to any kind of sick pay, and no guarantee of their job still being there when they recover.
BristolEcho
Well-Known Member
Exactly. And many of them will also be healthcare workers coming into contact with people at higher risk. Fucks.
Baronage-Phase
Well-Known Member
Our government is burying their head in the sand. Veradkar saying its too early to make a call on cancelling St Patrick's day parades.
Does he seriously think things are going to not get worse?
They're going round making this out to be a mild illness.
Like the % that die from it is negligible.
I'm really angry with the way they're acting.
Does he seriously think things are going to not get worse?
They're going round making this out to be a mild illness.
Like the % that die from it is negligible.
I'm really angry with the way they're acting.
Fez909
toilet expert
I think we've missed the boat to a certain extent, but if I was in charge I'd be up for that, sure. You also need to restrict where the kids go when they're not there, too, or it's a bit pointless.
I'd also cancel all gigs, festivals, sports events, conferences, etc.
I'd ramp up testing massively, and if possible start testing people not showing symptoms/healthy, in areas where there's been an outbreak. We need to get ahead of this, rather than be reactive.
South Korea's drive-thru testing stations seem like a good idea.
I also like China's community representative/nominated shopper. Keep the people going out and mingling to a minimum to reduce spread. I think we'd struggle to do that here as we don't have the same social setup, but we could do something similar by taking over Amazon Prime/Uber/whatever and using them as delivery drivers for estates.
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
Interesting piece in the Guardian on Spanish flu
www.theguardian.com
1) Spanish flu didn't start in Spain but in the trenches and kept secret until it hit Spain
2) Don't dismiss it like Daily Mail and Times and others did with Spanish flu and Johnson is doing with the handshaking with coronavirus
3) Uncontrolled movement can lead to tragic outcomes
4) Potential for a second wave - Spanish flu mutated into a worse form and hit people who hadn't built up immunity first time round (not so likely with coronavirus).
Four lessons the Spanish flu can teach us about coronavirus
Up to 100 million people died in 1918-19 in the world’s deadliest pandemic. What can we learn?
1) Spanish flu didn't start in Spain but in the trenches and kept secret until it hit Spain
2) Don't dismiss it like Daily Mail and Times and others did with Spanish flu and Johnson is doing with the handshaking with coronavirus
3) Uncontrolled movement can lead to tragic outcomes
4) Potential for a second wave - Spanish flu mutated into a worse form and hit people who hadn't built up immunity first time round (not so likely with coronavirus).
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
There aren't tests for that at present - only 1000 a day clearly too few no extra capacity was brought in after seeing the rise in South Korea - you simply have to quarantine these areas as much as possible.
The problem is when it gets too big the areas you have to quarantine get too large leading to Wuhan - now closed for exactly 40 days.
Get the local councillor or volunteers to do the distribution.
Mass events like St Patrick's Day Carnival are like wilfully pouring flames onto the fire something like authorities going ahead with the 19 January 40,000 banquet.
You have to start now, otherwise it's a like a tsunami.
No. Not yet. The workforce implications for health and social care would be enormous
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Honestly, tell me will they become any easier in four weeks' time?
UAE has had 27 confirmed cases, but they are trying to sieve it out.
Baronage-Phase
Well-Known Member
I cant understand why the WHO is not telling the world what to do. Boris is saying he has no problem shaking hands and lets leave the schools open cos after all kids dont seem to be affected and fuck the teachers like.
Same shit over here. Theyre living in a bubble.
The maths is showing that this virus spreads exponentially and quickly. Why are they pussy footing around waiting for a few people to die? How many need to die before they decide to become proactibe as opposed to just reacting.
Really pissed off.
The Chinese are doing their damndest and youve got oaf face Johnson and his cuz Veradkar thinking about what they might do??? Some toffy git on telly said they dont know what way this will go. Fuck off. Of course they do. Look at China and Italy ffs. Its fucking obvious.
How the fuck do these idiots get away with being in power?
String them up by the balls.
Same shit over here. Theyre living in a bubble.
The maths is showing that this virus spreads exponentially and quickly. Why are they pussy footing around waiting for a few people to die? How many need to die before they decide to become proactibe as opposed to just reacting.
Really pissed off.
The Chinese are doing their damndest and youve got oaf face Johnson and his cuz Veradkar thinking about what they might do??? Some toffy git on telly said they dont know what way this will go. Fuck off. Of course they do. Look at China and Italy ffs. Its fucking obvious.
How the fuck do these idiots get away with being in power?
String them up by the balls.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I was going to post that article but I didnt like this point much. It is important to consider subsequent waves, but the 'it mutated into a far more deadlier form' thing really sets me off.
I havent spent very much time brushing up on my 1918 flu pandemic knowledge, but the term 'far deadlier' can be ambiguous and misleading. Because humans often perceive disease severity and 'deadliness' not via some precise measure of case fatality rate, but in terms of the sheer number of seriously ill cases, deaths, and disruption to society.
It is certainly considered likely that between its initial appearance and outbreaks, and subsequent, more dramatic waves, that flu virus mutated in ways that improved its ability to bind to human airways. But the major consequence of this is not necessarily that this change made the virus more deadly for any particular individual, but rather had a big impact on the total number of people who caught that flu, a big impact on its transmissibility.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Oh and clicking on the link in the 1918 Daily Mail part of that article did lead to a very interesting long read about press propaganda in regards that flu in the context of war-weariness. I was especially interested when the study paper in question started going on about old attitudes, the idea that state of mind made one more susceptible to such diseases.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Ta for clarification
It is probably also possible that influenza virus mutations could actually have made it more serious for any particular person too, but that stuff is such an overused cliche, and often assumed to be the way these things work even if not actually proven, that even where it may have some truth to it, I feel bound to point out the other aspects that may be less obvious.
Anyway like I said I havent researched that particular aspect very much, but here is something:
That article in turn links to this:
Autopsy series of 68 cases dying before and during the 1918 influenza pandemic peak
The 1918 to 1919 “Spanish” influenza pandemic virus killed up to 50 million people. We report here clinical, pathological, bacteriological, and virological findings in 68 fatal American influenza/pneumonia military patients dying between May and October of 1918, a period that includes ∼4 mo...
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SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
No, but the effects might last four weeks longer if we jump the gun. Given that no drastic action will be taken by the UK government until containment is well and truly off the table, any such action should at least be geared towards keeping health services and other vital infrastructure working. Anything that increases the strain on that infrastructure with little real prospect of affecting the numbers of people who ultimately contract the virus will be counterproductive. You'll have people needlessly dying from stuff that has nothing to do with coronavirus.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
There are also consequences of acting early in terms of what percentage of the population will think its an insane overreaction, a disgrace that must be opposed etc.
If you dont try to do it till the number of cases and deaths starts to build significantly then you probably bypass a bunch of that unhelpful 'fuss over nothing' response from sections of the population.
If you dont try to do it till the number of cases and deaths starts to build significantly then you probably bypass a bunch of that unhelpful 'fuss over nothing' response from sections of the population.
Back to the balancing act.
As I posted a few days back, from a workforce perspective mass shut downs is a v poor outcome. Shut a load of schools in an area and you knock out a significant chunk of workers who then become carers.
Given the vacancy numbers in NHS and Social care (let alone other key services and industries) this becomes problematic quite quickly. People may die if you do something. People may die if you do nothing.
I have a lot of sympathy for people making these calls (I work in social care and have been involved in scenario planning)
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
'People needlessly dying from stuff that has nothing to do with coronavirus' is exactly what will happen when business as usual goes on and hospitals get full:- the examples are there in Wuhan, in Zhenzhou, in Iran and in Daegu aswell now. Anything non-pneumonia is cancelled.
Containment is already off the table with community spread already ongoing.
School closures where a partner/significant other/friend/named volunteer can perform home childcare makes sense, teenagers stay at home by themselves.
I know I have a social care focus here but that is my world.
Read the exec summary of this report
Over 1m workers in social care. Over 80% are female (therefore likely to become the main carer in a family crisis). Vacancy rate over 100k. Real crisis of non NHS nurses.
Big chunk on zero hours. These are the people who support everyone outside of hospitals. Which is a huge number
This is one of the many things keeping planners awake at night.
Read the exec summary of this report
Over 1m workers in social care. Over 80% are female (therefore likely to become the main carer in a family crisis). Vacancy rate over 100k. Real crisis of non NHS nurses.
Big chunk on zero hours. These are the people who support everyone outside of hospitals. Which is a huge number
This is one of the many things keeping planners awake at night.
