Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

From Imperial yesterday: News / Wuhan Coronavirus

That 60% figure for containment is worrying.

“We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18thJanuary 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories. This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak.”
 
This from the bbc has a few bits of on-the-ground stuff, not much from inside hospitals though. Also 461 in critical condition is... worrying (though given their confirmed and suspected case figures, that’s about 1/18).

On graun stream a few bits from the usual gamut of teachers.

Sounds like everything has shut down more than anything else. Frustrating that there still essentially no confirmed reporting from inside hospitals. Not especially surprising, given this is China. But it‘s just going to increase feelings of panic and uncertainty there (and to some extent here).
 
WeChat rumours of virus is from a known lab in the region - not from animals. 99% unsubstantiated bollocks so don’t take it as fact .

That bullshit was much more predictable than the virus. It isnt based on any supposed detail or incident at all, or anything about the characteristics of the virus. Its based entirely on the fact that Wuhan has a lab with a suitably high biosecurity rating, that does things including coronavirus research. All that is necessary for the rumour is for someone prone to that sort of thinking to learn that lab location fact, and thats it, we get this unsubstantiated shit.

There is an overlap between this and real stuff that can actually happen in the real world, but only when joined by some relevant facts that point properly in that direction. For example after the 2003 SARS outbreak was dealt with, there were a handful of sporadic cases the season afterwards, and these were often linked to lab workers and accidents. All of which were dealt with without big outbreaks resulting. And I already spoke about how H1N1 flu pandemic of 1977 is suspected to have stemmed from a lab incident. In that case the idea was prompted by virus characteristics - it was the same strain of flu that had last been seen in the wild 20 years previously. If it had been lurking in the wild somewhere for 20 years then it should have evolved over that period in various ways, but it hadnt, it was still the same or very close to a strain that used to exist in the wild but had only been seen in labs for decades since.
 
It’s a wechat rumour that has been doing the rounds. Apparently from a doctor... it’s basically impossible for someone to know that though.

Yeah. Its not the sort of figure a doctor is magically going to know either (or a nurse like with the previous similar rumour).

But it is the sort of figure we are starting to hear that some estimates, models and best guesses are coming out with in regards the current level of infections. And such estimates are the sort of thing I might expect to see talked about and paid attention to by the health community. So it might not just be a number someone has plucked out of thin air, but in any case regardless of the source we can only interpret it properly by understanding the methodology used to come up with the number.
 
Last edited:
In Tianjin (700 miles from Wuhan) restaurants are so quiet in what should be one of the busiest weeks of the year that they're selling their food stocks from stalls on their doorsteps. Some bargains to be had apparently but this is going to hammer the economy especially as it could go on for months.
 
Yeah. Its not the sort of figure a doctor is magically going to know either (or a nurse like with the previous similar rumour).

But it is the sort of figure we are starting to hear that some estimates, models and best guesses are coming out with in regards the current level of infections. And such estimates are the sort of thing I might expect to see talked about and paid attention to by the health community. So it might not just be a number someone has plucked out of thin air, but in any case regardless of the source we can only interpret it properly by understanding the methodology used to come up with the number.

I assume you meant to quote me there... I’ve looked at the video now (well, assume it is anyway), bit unclear as the subtitles don’t seem to be quite right, but my chinese isn’t really much better.

 
I assume you meant to quote me there... I’ve looked at the video now (well, assume it is anyway), bit unclear as the subtitles don’t seem to be quite right, but my chinese isn’t really much better.

Cheers, I corrected my quote.
 
From the 'faith in public officials' department of doh:

Hubei governor Wang Xiaodong said in a press conference on Sunday that the government was reinforcing medical supplies. But the press conference unleashed more public anger, as Wang corrected himself twice about the number of face masks being made available in the province.
Wang first put the number at 10.8 billion, then changed it to 1.8 billion before correcting himself again to say that 1.8 million masks were being provided.

Public anger was also directed at Wang for not wearing a face mask during the press conference. Other officials at the briefing did wear masks, but incorrectly. Hubei provincial government secretary general Bie Bixiong did not cover his nose, while Wuhan mayor Zhou appeared to wear his mask upside down.

 
Local expat blog had heard rumours of fever clinics in Beijing being overwhelmed, so wandered down to Chaoyang hospital to find a few people in the waiting room in an orderly queue. Presume most of the other rumours will be as accurate.
 
A few of a FT journalists tweets from Wuhan that give a more nuanced impression of what its like there at the moment:






Local expat blog had heard rumours of fever clinics in Beijing being overwhelmed, so wandered down to Chaoyang hospital to find a few people in the waiting room in an orderly queue. Presume most of the other rumours will be as accurate.

Yeah, it’s good to see these more rational experiences coming through a bit.
 
By the way, its quite possible that the 'suspected cases' official figure from China is based on much more than suspicion, and involves lots of cases that have tested positive at the local level, but wont be counted as confirmed until a 2nd test done centrally comes back positive.
 
A had a heating engineer around earlier to service the boiler, according to him we have over 50 confirmed cases in the UK already, I pointed out that over 50 had been tested, but all were negative.

His reply, 'that's what the government & MSM are telling you', I've heard the truth on youtube. :facepalm:
 
With some illnesses it seems that the asymptomatic cases, of which will there will be many, are still able to shed the virus, so they can still transmit it to others.

I was wondering if you know what causes some cases to be asymptomatic. In general terms I mean, not specifically regarding this virus, as I’m sure its behaviour is not fully known.

Is it that the patient just has a super strong immune system, so the infection, although present, doesn’t make them ill? Or is it maybe down to the initial infection occurring with a smaller amount of virus than is absorbed into patients who become properly ill? Or something else?
 
Last edited:
I dont know, but as I probably have more time available than the current amount of coronavirus reports will fill, I will look into it and let you know more another time.

Certainly its the sort of subject where in the past I've been very dismayed at current levels of understanding, which were much less than I expected. And its often completely missing from peoples understanding of things like flu, where they think that mild cases must not be proper flu at all, which is not how this stuff actually works.
 
I mean I'm going to guess that there are a bunch of different reasons. There is quite.a lot of variation between people in so many areas, and I think most of ithe time the reasons why are poorly understood, especially when so much medical and research effort is understandably focussed on cases with symptoms and stuff that is in some way easily visible.

Its tempting to pick multiple sclerosis as an area to investigate, because some estimates suggest 25% of MS cases are asymptomatic and are only discovered after death or by accident or not at all, with the patient displaying no clinical symptoms to cause a MS investigation in the first place. But given the context you've asked the question in, probably I should pick something like flu instead.
 
A student returned to Waterford from Wuhan and put himself into self imposed quarantine...according to rte news.
He arrived here yesterday. He had left Wuhan before the lockdown.
Drs say nothing to worry about. But if incubation is 14 days how can they know the lad is not carrying the virus?

Waterford Institute of Technology stated:
"“He is not ill and as a precaution he has agreed not to attend college and stay in his accommodation by himself for the time being,” a WIT spokeswoman said.

“We have been in touch with the HSE and are being directed by them.”
 
Drs say nothing to worry about. But if incubation is 14 days how can they know the lad is not carrying the virus?

There are no doctors in that article saying it is nothing to worry about, and they dont know that the lad is not carrying the virus, which is why he is under self-quarantine at the moment. Seems like a very reasonable approach to me, perhaps even excessive. Certainly not lax.

Incubation period is a range, most cases will manifest themselves earlier than that. But obviously when it comes to certain planning and containment things, you have to allow for the longest incubation period possible, even if most cases have incubation of a much shorter length. But since 14 days has been settled on as this figure for now, it will pop up a lot. I'd rather it always be mentioned as the full range, which I think is currently estimated at 1-14 days, with a lot of the action being seen in the 6-8 day range.
 
Fear, anger, lust and anxiety all keep those clicks coming. Nothing matters other than an emotional response and those clicks.
 
Back
Top Bottom