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Part-timah
Well-Known Member
“We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18thJanuary 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories. This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak.”
bellaozzydog
rolling turds in glitter
Whistle blower saying 90,000 effected
Cid
Proper break this time
This from the bbc has a few bits of on-the-ground stuff, not much from inside hospitals though. Also 461 in critical condition is... worrying (though given their confirmed and suspected case figures, that’s about 1/18).
On graun stream a few bits from the usual gamut of teachers.
Sounds like everything has shut down more than anything else. Frustrating that there still essentially no confirmed reporting from inside hospitals. Not especially surprising, given this is China. But it‘s just going to increase feelings of panic and uncertainty there (and to some extent here).
On graun stream a few bits from the usual gamut of teachers.
Sounds like everything has shut down more than anything else. Frustrating that there still essentially no confirmed reporting from inside hospitals. Not especially surprising, given this is China. But it‘s just going to increase feelings of panic and uncertainty there (and to some extent here).
Cid
Proper break this time
It’s a wechat rumour that has been doing the rounds. Apparently from a doctor... it’s basically impossible for someone to know that though.
not-bono-ever
meh
WeChat rumours of virus is from a known lab in the region - not from animals. 99% unsubstantiated bollocks so don’t take it as fact .
elbows
Well-Known Member
That bullshit was much more predictable than the virus. It isnt based on any supposed detail or incident at all, or anything about the characteristics of the virus. Its based entirely on the fact that Wuhan has a lab with a suitably high biosecurity rating, that does things including coronavirus research. All that is necessary for the rumour is for someone prone to that sort of thinking to learn that lab location fact, and thats it, we get this unsubstantiated shit.
There is an overlap between this and real stuff that can actually happen in the real world, but only when joined by some relevant facts that point properly in that direction. For example after the 2003 SARS outbreak was dealt with, there were a handful of sporadic cases the season afterwards, and these were often linked to lab workers and accidents. All of which were dealt with without big outbreaks resulting. And I already spoke about how H1N1 flu pandemic of 1977 is suspected to have stemmed from a lab incident. In that case the idea was prompted by virus characteristics - it was the same strain of flu that had last been seen in the wild 20 years previously. If it had been lurking in the wild somewhere for 20 years then it should have evolved over that period in various ways, but it hadnt, it was still the same or very close to a strain that used to exist in the wild but had only been seen in labs for decades since.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah. Its not the sort of figure a doctor is magically going to know either (or a nurse like with the previous similar rumour).
But it is the sort of figure we are starting to hear that some estimates, models and best guesses are coming out with in regards the current level of infections. And such estimates are the sort of thing I might expect to see talked about and paid attention to by the health community. So it might not just be a number someone has plucked out of thin air, but in any case regardless of the source we can only interpret it properly by understanding the methodology used to come up with the number.
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maomao
普費斯
In Tianjin (700 miles from Wuhan) restaurants are so quiet in what should be one of the busiest weeks of the year that they're selling their food stocks from stalls on their doorsteps. Some bargains to be had apparently but this is going to hammer the economy especially as it could go on for months.
8ball
AV REFUGEES WELCOME
99% is a conservative estimate.
Cid
Proper break this time
I assume you meant to quote me there... I’ve looked at the video now (well, assume it is anyway), bit unclear as the subtitles don’t seem to be quite right, but my chinese isn’t really much better.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
this map updates live
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Good job Dr Jazzz isn't around here anymore, he would be right on this 'theory'.
elbows
Well-Known Member
From the 'faith in public officials' department of doh:
www.scmp.com
Li Keqiang orders Wuhan hospitals to admit patients as city struggles
Li visits patients and medical staff and says 2,000 more nurses will be sent in days.
www.scmp.com
Cid
Proper break this time
Yeah, it’s good to see these more rational experiences coming through a bit.
elbows
Well-Known Member
By the way, its quite possible that the 'suspected cases' official figure from China is based on much more than suspicion, and involves lots of cases that have tested positive at the local level, but wont be counted as confirmed until a 2nd test done centrally comes back positive.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
A had a heating engineer around earlier to service the boiler, according to him we have over 50 confirmed cases in the UK already, I pointed out that over 50 had been tested, but all were negative.
His reply, 'that's what the government & MSM are telling you', I've heard the truth on youtube.
His reply, 'that's what the government & MSM are telling you', I've heard the truth on youtube.
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
I was wondering if you know what causes some cases to be asymptomatic. In general terms I mean, not specifically regarding this virus, as I’m sure its behaviour is not fully known.
Is it that the patient just has a super strong immune system, so the infection, although present, doesn’t make them ill? Or is it maybe down to the initial infection occurring with a smaller amount of virus than is absorbed into patients who become properly ill? Or something else?
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elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont know, but as I probably have more time available than the current amount of coronavirus reports will fill, I will look into it and let you know more another time.
Certainly its the sort of subject where in the past I've been very dismayed at current levels of understanding, which were much less than I expected. And its often completely missing from peoples understanding of things like flu, where they think that mild cases must not be proper flu at all, which is not how this stuff actually works.
Certainly its the sort of subject where in the past I've been very dismayed at current levels of understanding, which were much less than I expected. And its often completely missing from peoples understanding of things like flu, where they think that mild cases must not be proper flu at all, which is not how this stuff actually works.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I mean I'm going to guess that there are a bunch of different reasons. There is quite.a lot of variation between people in so many areas, and I think most of ithe time the reasons why are poorly understood, especially when so much medical and research effort is understandably focussed on cases with symptoms and stuff that is in some way easily visible.
Its tempting to pick multiple sclerosis as an area to investigate, because some estimates suggest 25% of MS cases are asymptomatic and are only discovered after death or by accident or not at all, with the patient displaying no clinical symptoms to cause a MS investigation in the first place. But given the context you've asked the question in, probably I should pick something like flu instead.
Its tempting to pick multiple sclerosis as an area to investigate, because some estimates suggest 25% of MS cases are asymptomatic and are only discovered after death or by accident or not at all, with the patient displaying no clinical symptoms to cause a MS investigation in the first place. But given the context you've asked the question in, probably I should pick something like flu instead.
Baronage-Phase
Well-Known Member
A student returned to Waterford from Wuhan and put himself into self imposed quarantine...according to rte news.
He arrived here yesterday. He had left Wuhan before the lockdown.
Drs say nothing to worry about. But if incubation is 14 days how can they know the lad is not carrying the virus?
www.google.com
Waterford Institute of Technology stated:
"“He is not ill and as a precaution he has agreed not to attend college and stay in his accommodation by himself for the time being,” a WIT spokeswoman said.
“We have been in touch with the HSE and are being directed by them.”
He arrived here yesterday. He had left Wuhan before the lockdown.
Drs say nothing to worry about. But if incubation is 14 days how can they know the lad is not carrying the virus?
Waterford student on lockdown after travelling from Chinese city at centre of coronavirus outbreak
A student is in lockdown in Waterford as a precaution after he travelled to Ireland from the Chinese city at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak.
www.google.com
Waterford Institute of Technology stated:
"“He is not ill and as a precaution he has agreed not to attend college and stay in his accommodation by himself for the time being,” a WIT spokeswoman said.
“We have been in touch with the HSE and are being directed by them.”
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Who's going to tell the Irish Examiner that Scotland hasn't actually left the UK yet?
Baronage-Phase
Well-Known Member
Who's going to tell the Irish Examiner that Scotland hasn't actually left the UK yet?
True.
Maybe Scotland just hasn't told the UK yet?
8ball
AV REFUGEES WELCOME
True.
Maybe Scotland just hasn't told the UK yet?
Check youtube.
elbows
Well-Known Member
There are no doctors in that article saying it is nothing to worry about, and they dont know that the lad is not carrying the virus, which is why he is under self-quarantine at the moment. Seems like a very reasonable approach to me, perhaps even excessive. Certainly not lax.
Incubation period is a range, most cases will manifest themselves earlier than that. But obviously when it comes to certain planning and containment things, you have to allow for the longest incubation period possible, even if most cases have incubation of a much shorter length. But since 14 days has been settled on as this figure for now, it will pop up a lot. I'd rather it always be mentioned as the full range, which I think is currently estimated at 1-14 days, with a lot of the action being seen in the 6-8 day range.
8ball
AV REFUGEES WELCOME
You missed gluttony, greed and sloth.
