Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[cupid_stunt]

'Only' 127 cases, and a city of 13 million has been locked down in China.

Up to 13 million people have been placed into lockdown in the city of Xi’an in China, as authorities move to clamp down on the community spread of Covid-19 after 127 infections were found in a second round of mass testing.

The snap lockdown on Thursday comes little over a month before Beijing is set to host the Winter Olympics.

All residents in Xi’an are barred from leaving their houses except to buy living necessities every other day or for emergencies, while travel to and from the city is suspended save for in exceptional circumstances requiring official approval. All non-essential businesses have also been closed.

China locks down 13 million people in Xi’an after detecting 127 Covid cases

Snap lockdown, which prompted panic in the city, comes little over a month before Beijing is set to host the Winter Olympics

www.theguardian.com

 

[sparkybird]

Mandatory to wear a face mask outside as well from today in Spain, although I'd say that 70% of people were already doing it.
Catalunya trying to go through the courts to introduce other measures such as curfews and stopping any non essential night time activities.

 

[Badgers]

'Only' 127 cases, and a city of 13 million has been locked down in China.

China locks down 13 million people in Xi’an after detecting 127 Covid cases

Snap lockdown, which prompted panic in the city, comes little over a month before Beijing is set to host the Winter Olympics

www.theguardian.com

 

[IC3D]

One member per household allowed out every other day for food..fun times.

 

[Flavour]

Do we have any reliable data on vaccination rates in China?

 

[Combustible]

Do we have any reliable data on vaccination rates in China?

A couple of days ago I saw it was at 82% having 2 doses, I'm not sure what age range that covers but it apparently corresponds to 1.1 billion people.

 

[Badgers]

Miserable

Passengers travelling home for Christmas have been hit with disruption worldwide after airline companies cancelled more than 3,000 flights on Friday, according to a flight tracking website.

The surge of Christmas Eve cancellations came as the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant meant carriers were unable to staff their flight s.

 

[_Russ_]

Miserable

The Weather isnt helping much, least not here is Swansea (low cloud drizzle rain for ages)

Anyway Happy midwinter whatever

 

[20Bees]

Do we have any reliable data on vaccination rates in China?

My son is a teacher in northern China and had two doses of Sinopharm, arranged by his employers. His Chinese wife (33) has not been able to get any vaccine yet.

Five cases of delta were found in their province in October and various communities were locked down when potential close contacts of those cases were identified - residents were not allowed to leave their apartment block for 14 days even into the gated community grounds.

ETA we just spoke, his wife was actually advised not to get vaccinated during pregnancy and to wait until she has stopped breastfeeding

 

[nagapie]

My family have started testing positive over the last week both in Gauteng and Cape Town. Which anecdotally makes it seem like Omicron is still peaking, none of them have tested positive in the other waves, even though I believe data suggests the peak is over. Luckily they are all double vaxxed.

 

[Edie]

I can't actually tell what's sarcasm or not anymore. All I would say is look at what sage, indy sage, a whole boatload of academics and NHS managers and staff are predicting. It's more or less universal that if we continue with plan B it's going to be a shit show for hospitalisations. The lag you talk about will really start to show up in early January.

This turned out to be… wrong.

 

[Raheem]

This turned out to be… wrong.

What happened in early January turned out to be wrong in late December?

 

[Edie]

What happened in early January turned out to be wrong in late December?

Given the incubation of covid isn’t measured in multiples of weeks, I don’t understand why it would be necessary to wait until for 2+ weeks to see an increase in deaths or hospitalisations due to omicron? In fact, my initial post where I consider the vaccines impact in decoupling serious illness and death from incidence seems on the money. The graphs for new infections and deaths/hospitalisation in wave 3 are not linked in the way they were last year.

I’m really struggling to see what people are getting out of hysterical scaremongering now. It’s almost like you want us to be in the grips of it all with people dying and terrified and reality isn’t meeting your dire prediction

 

[extra dry]

stats and numbers 28th dec 2021

 

[redsquirrel]

FFS that's a half hour video.

The site rules specifically say don't just post up shit that you can't even be bothered to summarise. This isn't Twitter

 

[extra dry]

FFS that's a half hour video.

The site rules specifically say don't just post up shit that you can't even be bothered to summarise. This isn't Twitter

Basically high numbers of infections, low numbers of people in hospital, people are getting mild flu like symptoms.

 

[LDC]

Given the incubation of covid isn’t measured in multiples of weeks, I don’t understand why it would be necessary to wait until for 2+ weeks to see an increase in deaths or hospitalisations due to omicron? In fact, my initial post where I consider the vaccines impact in decoupling serious illness and death from incidence seems on the money. The graphs for new infections and deaths/hospitalisation in wave 3 are not linked in the way they were last year.

I’m really struggling to see what people are getting out of hysterical scaremongering now. It’s almost like you want us to be in the grips of it all with people dying and terrified and reality isn’t meeting your dire prediction

Edie there were 129,000 infections yesterday that haven't had the time to develop serious illness or die, and the numbers of infections are still going up.

Yes, to a large extent severe illness and death have been de-linked by the vaccine, but not for everyone. As said above I'm much less clear about restrictions this time, but given plenty of countries are bringing them in again I think you're being over optimistic in the face of the reality.

And hospitalisations in London are increasing btw, and they're ahead of us. Have you seen the emails saying the peak up here is much later, late January or even later?

FWIW this place has always been slightly out-of-step with more general levels of understanding and caution in my wider circle, but now it's even more so, here is very significantly more cautious and concerned.

Also think we're not far off no more restrictions at all tbh (bar some wild card again) which is going to be difficult for people that are CEV and/or very worried about catching it as I think getting infected will be an inevitability rather than a possibility, and it'll be down to being vaccinated, personal risk management, and a bit of luck which will be hard.

This is also worldwide news, so the wrong thread for all this chatter.

E2A: An underrated and not talked about enough aspect of why we have the positions and outlooks we do in this pandemic relates to our personalities and politics, and we should be aware of these when we are thinking through how we see the data and our predictions etc. I do think there's a tendency of HCPs to sometimes be a bit blase as well as we see so much illness etc. day-to-day. Not aimed at you Edie, have been chatting about this stuff, and thought could stick it in here since it came up tangentially!

 

[LDC]

Basically high numbers of infections, low numbers of people in hospital, people are getting mild flu like symptoms.

You keep doing this shit with videos, can you fucking stop it. Also he's a dubious source of reliable information.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Given the incubation of covid isn’t measured in multiples of weeks, I don’t understand why it would be necessary to wait until for 2+ weeks to see an increase in deaths or hospitalisations due to omicron? In fact, my initial post where I consider the vaccines impact in decoupling serious illness and death from incidence seems on the money. The graphs for new infections and deaths/hospitalisation in wave 3 are not linked in the way they were last year.

I’m really struggling to see what people are getting out of hysterical scaremongering now. It’s almost like you want us to be in the grips of it all with people dying and terrified and reality isn’t meeting your dire prediction

I am certainly not is any way into 'hysterical scaremongering' right now, because I simply don't know how bad this wave will be, in fact no one really does, not even the UK government, who still will not rule out more restrictions coming in as early as next week, so I am also unconvinced about your optimism. I posted yesterday in the UK covid thread that the bigger problem this time could be NHS staff sickness, on top of increasing demand.

All our neighbours have or are introducing more restrictions - Ireland, NI, Scotland, Wales, France, Belgium, Holland, Germany and many more across mainland Europe - the idea that all those countries have got it wrong, and little old England has by a stroke of luck called it right, just seems a giant leap of faith to me.

Dragging this thread further back onto the 'worldwide news discussion' topic, the WHO remains very concerned as to how things will unfold across Europe.

The World Health Organization has warned that the Omicron coronavirus variant could lead to overwhelmed healthcare systems even though early studies suggest it sparks milder disease. The WHO warned against complacency even though preliminary findings suggest that Omicron could lead to milder disease.

WHO Europe’s Covid incident manager, Catherine Smallwood, warned: "A rapid growth of Omicron … even if combined with a slightly milder disease, will still result in large numbers of hospitalisations, particularly amongst unvaccinated groups, and cause widespread disruption to health systems and other critical services.”

However, the WHO highlighted the 29% decrease in the incidence of cases observed in South Africa - the country which first reported the variant to the WHO on 24 November.

It said early data from Britain, South Africa and Denmark - which currently has the world’s highest rate of infection per person - suggested there was a reduced risk of hospitalisation for Omicron compared to Delta.

However, further data was needed to understand Omicron’s severity in terms of clinical markers, including the use of oxygen, mechanical ventilation and death. More data was also required on how the severity might be being impacted by previous Covid infection, or vaccination.

UK cases hit new daily record of 183,037; Spain cuts isolation period to seven days – as it happened

Case figures include delayed data from Northern Ireland; Spain cuts quarantine despite record rise in cases

www.theguardian.com

So, I remain 'concerned' until we see how this plays out over the next few weeks.

 

[_Russ_]

You keep doing this shit with videos, can you fucking stop it. Also he's a dubious source of reliable information.

I watched it all, I have watched most of his Covid stuff and since Omicron appeared he has gone off on one and consistantly says things like "a small increase in hospitalisations" whilst pointing to a graph with really quite high increases.
In short he made an early very bold guess on Omicron's path and is now fitting his words to that appraisal no matter the Data in front of him (not saying there isnt good things in the data but he is skewing it)

 

[Yossarian]

Isn't there still usually a lag of around two weeks between somebody first showing symptoms and them being hospitalised?

So the impact of the omicron surge should become more apparent over the next week or so - of course the news everybody wants to see is that "gloomy, doom-mongering scientists" were wrong, new restrictions were an overreaction, there's light at the end of the tunnel, etc. etc., but that definitely hasn't been the pattern so far in the pandemic.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

This turned out to be… wrong.

Not yet it hasn't.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Given the incubation of covid isn’t measured in multiples of weeks, I don’t understand why it would be necessary to wait until for 2+ weeks to see an increase in deaths or hospitalisations due to omicron? In fact, my initial post where I consider the vaccines impact in decoupling serious illness and death from incidence seems on the money. The graphs for new infections and deaths/hospitalisation in wave 3 are not linked in the way they were last year.

I’m really struggling to see what people are getting out of hysterical scaremongering now. It’s almost like you want us to be in the grips of it all with people dying and terrified and reality isn’t meeting your dire prediction

I'm really struggling to see why people think that unless everything is back to 2019 life then it's all just hysterical scaremongering.

I also struggle to see how people now, still, 2 years into this, think that as long as people aren't dying in significant numbers than everything is just fine to go back to 2019. Nevermind the fact that current daily death rates from this one infectious disease equate to around 55000 deaths a year anyway, something I think should be unacceptable in an industrially developed 21st century society but hey ho it's all just scaremongering.

 

[extra dry]

So, I guess john c can f off to fu*k with his charts, interviews, messages and videos from other healthcare people, doctors, and the vaccine tracker data is all made up then? For two years he has been feeding everyone false data?

 

[elbows]

People that are consistently 100% wrong and full of shit are much easier to detect and dismiss. Those who offer a more complicated mix of right and wrong are a trickier proposition to decode. I dont recommend him because I dont like his style or emphasis, but I havent spent enough time watching his videos to offer my own detailed interpretation of his agenda, weaknesses, strengths. He was never my cup of tea so I've been ignoring him since quite early on. Clearly there have been occasions where something he has said has set off some peoples alarm bells and they've gone off him.

 

[_Russ_]

So, I guess john c can f off to fu*k with his charts, interviews, messages and videos from other healthcare people, doctors, and the vaccine tracker data is all made up then? For two years he has been feeding everyone false data?

No he just sometimes says things that are at odds with the data that is actually on the screen when he is saying it.
He has stuck his neck out over Omicron and I think he realises himself that he was a bit too bold I sincerely hope his initial almost joyous slant on Omicron proves right but I doubt it

 

[elbows]

Given the incubation of covid isn’t measured in multiples of weeks, I don’t understand why it would be necessary to wait until for 2+ weeks to see an increase in deaths or hospitalisations due to omicron? In fact, my initial post where I consider the vaccines impact in decoupling serious illness and death from incidence seems on the money. The graphs for new infections and deaths/hospitalisation in wave 3 are not linked in the way they were last year.

I’m really struggling to see what people are getting out of hysterical scaremongering now. It’s almost like you want us to be in the grips of it all with people dying and terrified and reality isn’t meeting your dire prediction

Even the government had to admit in the past that it was not credible to claim that the link between infections and hospitalisations/deaths had been completely broken. Its never broken, there is still a relationship, its just the ratio changes. And vaccines and treatments and changes to the virus itself can lead to a very substantial change to this ratio. Even then they still expect the number of hospitalisations to increase when the number of cases increases, its just that they hope the hospitalisation increase is far less dramatic than seen in the past.

Regarding 'hysterical scaremongering', the point you and some others seem to miss is that the UK establishment itself has still felt the need to lay on some heavy mood music and encourage massive changes to behaviour this winter. Yes people like me go further, but you are really making a big mistake if you try to ignore the fact that the authorities themselves have still required people to change their behaviour and contact mixing patterns in order for them to think we have a good chance of everything remaining within tolerable thresholds this time around.

Eventually they will want to change that too. At some point they will try to move away from the current levels of testing and change the self-isolation rules, and they will seek to end the cycle of scary mood music that they have made use of for entirely sensible public health reasons. If Omicron doesnt go too badly then they may attempt that as early as this easter perhaps. And then things will have moved on to something a bit more compatible with the view you are coming out with now.

 

[elbows]

Isn't there still usually a lag of around two weeks between somebody first showing symptoms and them being hospitalised?

So the impact of the omicron surge should become more apparent over the next week or so - of course the news everybody wants to see is that "gloomy, doom-mongering scientists" were wrong, new restrictions were an overreaction, there's light at the end of the tunnel, etc. etc., but that definitely hasn't been the pattern so far in the pandemic.

In terms of the lag between positive cases showing up in the data and the resulting increase in daily hospital admissions showing up in the data, in the past the gap has only been about a week, although we may need to add a few more days to that to account for delays in the data actually being published publicly.

We are well into the zone where Londons dramatic increase in cases should filter into the hospitalisations picture. I'm not rushing to judgement because we also need to allow for the fact that cases in older age groups rose a bit later than cases in younger age groups, and I also need to take into account Christmas disruption to quality of data available, both on the testing and hospital front.

Personally if I dont see sustained rises in the next 3 days worth of hospital admissions data for the London region, I'm going to allow myself to become a bit more optimistic, with caveats. I wont reach conclusions, but I will suggest that things are starting to point at a particular outcome for that region at least, and I'll then want to see those signs sustained for the subsequent week or two.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

So, I guess john c can f off to fu*k with his charts, interviews, messages and videos from other healthcare people, doctors, and the vaccine tracker data is all made up then? For two years he has been feeding everyone false data?

I found him very useful in the first year but he started to go a bit nutty talking about ivermectin and heart problems with vaccines. It made me feel queasy and it attracted a weird crowd of freaks. He also went way too early on omicron saying how mild it is and it's all good news coming out of South Africa which, even if it does appear to now be true, it was still grossly irresponsible.

One thing that really bugs me is people saying 'it won't be that bad you're worrying about nothing' I've heard it since the beginning. All said without having a clue as to whether that will be true or not. The government haven't known and still don't about omicron. They have taken a gamble with people's health and our health service. That's wreckless governance. If they turn out to be right so be it but it's still a gamble and I don't wanna be governed by wreckless gamblers in a pandemic.

 

[elbows]

Some people also end up coming out with crap about 'the scientists were wrong', even though the modelling covers a range of scenarios and is quite clear about what parameters they play with in each scenario. Hence they are not delivering single fixed predictions about what will happen, they are not predictions of the sort that newspaper headlines make it sound like they are! The media fixate on single numbers, most of the modelling is actually about broad ranges. And the modelling is not a simple prediction because they do not usually attempt to model changes in peoples behaviours that are caused by mood music etc, they tend to model behavioural changes in very simplistic ways and only as part of scenarios where new formal restrictions come in on certain dates.