Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[2hats]

Something I was wondering: is there any sign that the death rate has dropped for the disease itself since the early days? As a result of us finding better ways of treating it, I was thinking.

The CFR has certainly dropped (in the UK) but it's still too early (and/or paucity of data) to fully understand the path of the IFR globally.

 

[two sheds]

Could that be from the increased testing? The 6% could have come from fewer tests giving a higher apparent fatality rate because cases were missed but fatalities weren't?

 

[2hats]

Could that be from the increased testing? The 6% could have come from fewer tests giving a higher apparent fatality rate because cases were missed but fatalities weren't?

Could be, but then there are likely lots of factors. The second link covers most of the salient points.

 

[elbows]

Something I was wondering: is there any sign that the death rate has dropped for the disease itself since the early days? As a result of us finding better ways of treating it, I was thinking.

Death rate of hospitalised patients dropped in the UK after the initial period, but a big chunk of this drop was likely to be temporary and caused by different demographics ending up in hospital during the summer lull and resurgence. eg younger people, with the trend expected to reverse as we see more and more infections in older people once more.

Here is an example I saw late last night. The headline grabs attention with its positive news, only for much of the article to undermine that claim.

Covid patients 'less likely to die than in April'

Patients admitted to intensive care have a better chance of surviving now than they did in the first wave.

www.bbc.co.uk

eg:

On average, 39% of patients admitted to critical care died between the start of the pandemic and the end of August and this appears to have fallen to just under 12%.
But Dr Pittard cautioned this was most likely to be a product of the fact that not enough time has passed to work out the outcomes of patients admitted to hospital since the beginning of September.
Many will remain in intensive care and until a patient is either discharged or dies, they do not appear in the data.

But there is more than one phenomenon at work. I would ignore the recent period improvements for the reasons given in that quote. But there was also a decline in the hospitalised death rate in the earlier period. I expect this to be down to a combination of factors. There are better protocols now for estimating which patients are likely to deteriorate. There are several treatments that will save some patients. There is better understanding of when ventilation is required and more people will get CPAP instead. However the death rate is also influenced by sheer numbers, by how much strain the hospital and admissions system is under. So however much the deaths were lowered by that factor once the first peak passed, is a gain that could be undone if things get that busy again.

 

[frogwoman]

32,427 new cases and 89 new deaths in France [source]

Fuck!!!

 

[two sheds]

If it's 1.5% fatality rate, then with 68 million population isn't that 1 million possible fatalities?

Eta: And with 60,000 fatalities so far translates to less than 1% having caught it so far? Doesn't seem right.

 

[frogwoman]

I think the highest estimate I've seen is 1%-1.2% but it could go higher with a lack of medical care in time or if hospitals are overwhelmed.

 

[LDC]

If it's 1.5% fatality rate, then with 68 million population isn't that 1 million possible fatalities?

Something like that, yes. Hence the panic when that modelling got published in Feb/Mar that suggested a possible 500,000 dead. It's a figure that needs airing more often in these discussion, especially about 'herd immunity' ideas.

 

[two sheds]

Something like that, yes. Hence the panic when that modelling got published in Feb/Mar that suggested a possible 500,000 dead. It's a figure that needs airing more often in these discussion, especially about 'herd immunity' ideas.

My eta though: And with 60,000 fatalities translates to less than 1% having caught it so far? Doesn't seem right.

Oops less than 10%?

 

[frogwoman]

The WHO are estimating 0.6% to 1% which is still catastrophic if millions of people get it. And the reduction in the IFR is dependent on people getting the right medical treatment in time

 

[frogwoman]

My eta though: And with 60,000 fatalities translates to less than 1% having caught it so far? Doesn't seem right.

Don't think less than 1% have caught it? Didn't they say 7-10% have antibodies?

 

[Supine]

My eta though: And with 60,000 fatalities translates to less than 1% having caught it so far? Doesn't seem right.

The 500k was unmitigated with safety measures and based on the initial fatality rate. I think the last % already infected figure is around 8% with lots of regional variation.

 

[two sheds]

Don't think less than 1% have caught it? Didn't they say 7-10% have antibodies?

Yes - slightly less than 10% I dropped a zero off

 

[frogwoman]

If you just let it run it will probably go well over 500k not including all the people dying from other things because they cant get near a hospital.

 

[Maltin]

My eta though: And with 60,000 fatalities translates to less than 1% having caught it so far? Doesn't seem right.

Oops less than 10%?

If 1.5% rate and 60,000 deaths, that equates to 4 million cases. I have seen estimates of about 7-8% infected. 4 million is around 6% of the population so reasonably in line.

 

[LDC]

If 1.5% rate and 60,000 deaths, that equates to 4 million cases. I have seen estimates of about 7-8% infected. 4 million is around 6% of the population so reasonably in line.

Yeah, my GCSE maths level makes the projected figures of CFR/numbers infected/have antibodies/etc. all about ballpark correct. #science

 

[frogwoman]

It will go way higher if it's untreated. And just because there is a 0.6% to 1.5% average IFR (for instance) doesn't mean any given person's chance of dying is only 1.5%.

 

[ice-is-forming]

This is our track and trace app in Australia

 

[Maltin]

This is our track and trace app in Australia

Hadn’t realized how disproportionately impacted Victoria was. No wonder they have had stricter restrictions.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Something I was wondering: is there any sign that the death rate has dropped for the disease itself since the early days? As a result of us finding better ways of treating it, I was thinking.

I doubt the data is good enough to make that call. But there's no real reason to expect the death rate to have dropped.

 

[kabbes]

But there's no real reason to expect the death rate to have dropped.

What about all that stuff about putting people on their belly and using a CPAP machine instead of a ventilator? In the first few months, I was always reading snippets of how one doctor or another had found certain techniques more successful. Have we really learned nothing in six months?

 

[frogwoman]

The death rate has dropped because of those techniques but if it is untreated it's probably about the same I imagine

 

[two sheds]

That's a good point

 

[frogwoman]

Dexamethasone is also proven to reduce death rates iirc

 

[ice-is-forming]

Hadn’t realized how disproportionately impacted Victoria was. No wonder they have had stricter restrictions.

Yes, they seem to have it under control now, and had to go into a 100 day circuit breaker for that to happen. I think some of their restrictions are easing at midnight today.

qld, northern territory and western Australia have had their boarders closed for months now, this has pissed off the economists, but luckily our labour premiere has stood her ground. And weirdly enough Qld is booming now...

 

[editor]

LOVE this woman

 

[frogwoman]

Nearly Half the People Who Have Died of COVID-19 in India Are Younger Than 60 – The Wire Science

science.thewire.in

Interesting.

 

[bimble]

Bloody hell just reading about what’s going on in Czech Republic, which was looking so good back in the spring.
Today police shooting water canon at anti lockdown protestors in the middle of Prague and look at this. Worst rate in Europe right now by far. Terrifying.

 

[frogwoman]

Some pretty worrying signs in Morocco and Tunisia.

 

[Supine]

The FT are continuing with their excellent coverage of Covid.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data