Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[zahir]

If accurate this report from Brazil doesn’t look good for hopes of achieving herd immunity.

In Brazil's Amazon a COVID-19 resurgence dashes herd immunity hopes

(This September 27 story corrects name to Lewis in paragraph 20)

mobile.reuters.com

In case anyone reads Portuguese.

Fiocruz afirma que Manaus vive segunda onda da Covid-19 e propõe lockdown para conter avanço do vírus

Governo do Estado determinou, desde a sexta-feira (25), fechamento de bares e casas noturnas após constatação de aumento de infecções.

g1.globo.com

 

[frogwoman]

This is a shocking chart.

 

[Supine]

 

[frogwoman]

If accurate this report from Brazil doesn’t look good for hopes of achieving herd immunity.

In Brazil's Amazon a COVID-19 resurgence dashes herd immunity hopes

(This September 27 story corrects name to Lewis in paragraph 20)

mobile.reuters.com

In case anyone reads Portuguese.

Fiocruz afirma que Manaus vive segunda onda da Covid-19 e propõe lockdown para conter avanço do vírus

Governo do Estado determinou, desde a sexta-feira (25), fechamento de bares e casas noturnas após constatação de aumento de infecções.

g1.globo.com

Depends on the number of hospitalizations and deaths tho surely? I mean if someone gets it twice but doesn't get very sick the second time around (and doesn't spread it to other people who could get terribly sick) it might not be that bad. However if there's no immunity at all that is a problem

 

[frogwoman]

"It is undoubtedly that we are in a second wave in Manaus, that we are having an increasing number of hospitalizations for serious cases of severe acute respiratory syndromes. This type of epidemiological scenario in which the City has increased the attendance at the basic health units, you has the state government increasing the number of beds for hospitalization for suspected and confirmed cases of covid-19, it is completely incompatible with the thesis that we have herd immunity ", he said.

Oh shit

 

[Badgers]

Herd immunity was always a calculated guess at best

 

[elbows]

The whole herd immunity story is nearly always treated too crudely anyway. We dont understand enough to make confident claims about it, the picture probably shifts continually. Also there are quite possibly other reasons why novel viruses may lead to waves of disease with troughs in between, even in the absence of effective mitigation. Some of those may be related to immunity in some way too but I just dont think enough is really known about the subject to really explore this properly.

New York is another place where some had high hopes due to the high levels of infection the first time around, but the authorities there are starting to express concern about their recent data.

eg:

New York City to fine people who refuse to wear masks as Covid rates rise

Bill de Blasio announces mask crackdown amid rise in positive tests, while officials reveal concern over virus increase in nine zip codes

www.theguardian.com

The latest citywide daily positive test rate was 3.25%, De Blasio said, a rise attributed in part to nine zip codes city health officials say have seen worrying increases in cases. In some hotspots the positivity rate was 17%.

De Blasio said officials would first offer free masks to anyone caught not wearing one. If the person refuses, the mayor told reporters, they will face an unspecified fine.

“Our goal, of course, is to give everyone a free face mask,” the mayor said. “We don’t want to fine people, but if we have to we will.”

 

[two sheds]

that's about four months after the first round of infections?

 

[elbows]

that's about four months after the first round of infections?

Depends what you use to define that earlier moment. Personally I would tend to go with the peak of infections, which was longer than 4 months ago.



I dont think I can deduce much about immunity from it, since the timing of lockdown easing, peoples behaviour and season effects cannot be accounted for in a way that allows us to see any immunity-related stuff on its own. And I think lockdowns, behaviours and how long it takes to resurge once cases have been pushed to a low level can explain what has been seen all over the place, without even considering any immunity issues. Which isnt to say there arent any immunity things having an impact on the picture, just that they arent necessary to explain the picture seen so far.

 

[Chz]

I thought "herd immunity" was just a code for not caring how many people get it, so long as the hospitals don't get so overwhelmed that the non-Covid death rate spirals out of control? If the population actually gets some immunity out of it, so much the better but I don't think it was actually the real intent.

 

[frogwoman]

In New York I think bars etc only opened recently and kids only go back to school later this month.

 

[Teaboy]

I thought "herd immunity" was just a code for not caring how many people get it, so long as the hospitals don't get so overwhelmed that the non-Covid death rate spirals out of control? If the population actually gets some immunity out of it, so much the better but I don't think it was actually the real intent.

Not really. There are plenty of conditions out there where herd immunity is a viable option, its the basis of a lot of our vaccines. In the case of covid though it was optimism which has seemingly turned out to be misplaced. Lots of us wanted it to be a thing just as everyone hoped that the idea it was losing its potency was a thing. Unfortunately neither seems to be the case.

Its a pretty brutal way to think of it but if herd immunity was possible with covid and there was a certain trade off in deaths to achieve it most (all?) countries would have gone for it providing the trade off wasn't too high. I have no doubt the UK government would have traded 60k dead for herd immunity and a non-borked economy.

 

[frogwoman]

Tbh it would be reassuring to some people who had had it to know that they were immune and couldn't get it or spread it again.

 

[frogwoman]

The numbers in France and Spain are shocking.

 

[frogwoman]

Moldova recorded its highest number of new cases today having done very well in suppressing transmission with an early lockdown etc. Having lived there their health services really aren't set up for a serious outbreak

 

[Supine]

 

[two sheds]

"assuming adequate cleaning"

 

[miss direct]

Turkish Health Ministry has only been publishing symptomatic coronavirus cases, says minister

Turkey's Health Minister Fahrettin Koca has made a distinction between COVID-19 "patients" and "cases," saying that the ministry has not been reporting the number of COVID-19 cases that tested positive for the virus but showed no symptoms. Koca said that COVID-19 "patients" are people with...

www.duvarenglish.com

Unsurprising news that Turkey has been covering up the number of cases in a desperate attempt at attracting tourists/bragging.

 

[Supine]

"assuming adequate cleaning"

My hands have never been cleaner!

 

[two sheds]

I've been in the garden

 

[prunus]

I’m not sure I do count that as good news -transmission by fomite is generally easier to control than that by aerosol.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

It's also old news, people (actual medical people) have been saying that for months.

 

[Supine]

It's also old news, people (actual medical people) have been saying that for months.

That article is from the Lancet

 

[Supine]

I’m not sure I do count that as good news -transmission by fomite is generally easier to control than that by aerosol.

It's good news in that we are understanding it more.

 

[SheilaNaGig]

This is a shocking chart.

Either I’ve got access to some kind of time travel portal or I’ve defin seen that before. I feel like I saw that way back in April or June, so I’m wondering has changed position at all.

But yeah, Black Death baby!

HIV/AIDS also shocking.

 

[frogwoman]

Either I’ve got access to some kind of time travel portal or I’ve defin seen that before. I feel like I saw that way back in April or June, so I’m wondering has changed position at all.

But yeah, Black Death baby!

It has yea, it has moved along in position as it's overtaken various plagues.

 

[two sheds]

i hadn't realized that HIV had killed so many

 

[SheilaNaGig]

It's good news in that we are understanding it more.

Also good to know that I can stop obsessing about cleaning down every item that comes into my home.

It has definitely made me feel more in control, less at the mercy of it.

 

[SheilaNaGig]

i hadn't realized that HIV had killed so many

A lot of gay men are justifiably aggrieved that this plague has got so much more public attention than HIV/AIDS did at the equivalent stage of the game.

 

[frogwoman]

Yeah, although good news is HIV is killing far fewer people than it used to. However, the pandemic has interrupted provision of aids drugs and treatments for other diseases

Laura Spinney's book on Spanish flu talks about how the flu had a knock on effect on worsening the effects of other diseases too which went untreated for example there were some very bad cholera outbreaks at the same time.