miss direct
misfungled
Turkey's figures are getting worse and worse - at least, the officially released stats are. Could it be that as the tourist season draws to a close, officials are actually letting the real number of cases and deaths come out?
Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more
- Thread starter weltweit
- Start date
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah it since hit 256 for the last week in the daily report.
This is what it currently looks like when expressed as cases per day, although as that quote mentions, there is extra lag in their reporting system.
Various hospital indicators for Spain remain on a similar trajectory to last time I spoke about that, so no more graphs from me on that for now. But the rises in hospitalisations, intensive care cases etc obviously imply more deaths in future.
This is what it currently looks like when expressed as cases per day, although as that quote mentions, there is extra lag in their reporting system.
Various hospital indicators for Spain remain on a similar trajectory to last time I spoke about that, so no more graphs from me on that for now. But the rises in hospitalisations, intensive care cases etc obviously imply more deaths in future.
Skiing and Covid.
www.theguardian.com
‘Everyone was drenched in the virus’: was this Austrian ski resort a Covid-19 ground zero?
At least 6,000 people say they caught coronavirus in Ischgl, dubbed ‘Ibiza on ice’, and their class action is gaining pace. Those who were there recall a terrifying week
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
Skiing and Covid.
‘Everyone was drenched in the virus’: was this Austrian ski resort a Covid-19 ground zero?
At least 6,000 people say they caught coronavirus in Ischgl, dubbed ‘Ibiza on ice’, and their class action is gaining pace. Those who were there recall a terrifying week
One interesting bit (from many scary ones):
"“In Iceland, we allowed the doctors to take over from politicians for a few weeks,” he says. “That really made the difference.” Iceland started offering Covid-19 tests at the end of January, carrying them out on those with and without symptoms in the months that followed, giving it the highest per capita testing rate at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak."
retribution
Jack of Dubs
Melbourne's case numbers have been steadily in decline since the beginning of a strict lockdown 5 weeks ago (which came out of another less-strict lockdown I can't remember how many weeks ago). There were 63 cases statewide yesterday, the majority of those in Melbourne (population 5 million). In theory our lockdown was meant to end next Sunday but today they've announced the "road map" to a "COVID normal" which means we're basically in lockdown for another seven weeks 
On the "plus" side, the roadmap is really quite clear about what numbers need to look like for the lockdown to be slackened. It basically looks like we're going for elimination: if we have 14 straight days of no new cases by 23 November
eek then people will be allowed more than one household in their home at a time.
I'm pretty sympathetic to the politics of it all but was surprised at how long our route of lockdown seems to be. This is getting looonnngggg.
On the "plus" side, the roadmap is really quite clear about what numbers need to look like for the lockdown to be slackened. It basically looks like we're going for elimination: if we have 14 straight days of no new cases by 23 November
eek then people will be allowed more than one household in their home at a time.I'm pretty sympathetic to the politics of it all but was surprised at how long our route of lockdown seems to be. This is getting looonnngggg.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
There's various articles describing France as the new European hotspot, so I've just looked at the rolling 7-day average of daily new cases, and it seems Spain is getting on top of it. having peaked at 7435 on 26th Aug. & dropped to 2933 yesterday, whereas France continues to go up, increasing between the same dates from 4077 to 6454, an increase of almost 60%.
Mind you the UK increased during that period by about 50%, from 1107 to 1631.
Mind you the UK increased during that period by about 50%, from 1107 to 1631.
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
Allez les bleus!
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Currently there are differences in hospitalisation though. So Spain has topped 7k in total, which is a quarter of its very high peak, so still pretty high, reflected in deaths rising to 40-odd per day. France had on average just over 200 per day hospital admittances last week, which is still quite low - represents an overall rise in hospital numbers of around 100 per day. So France isn't out of control... yet.
UK hospitalisation rate is still around 100 per day. Total in hospital has bottomed out at 750-odd currently. Stopped falling but not rising significantly... yet.
Caveat to all that would be that Spain's initial case rises were not accompanied by hospitalisation rises. Those came a while later as, perhaps, the young had time to spread it to the old.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Don't think you can assume that FW, remember there will be a lag between catching it, hospitalisation and death. And that lad will be different for different patients.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Depends who is getting it. Mortality rate in over 75s is around 1 in 10. In children it's more like 1 in 100,000. Antibody tests have been showing that, although it is mostly older people dying, a higher proportion of younger people have been catching it.
Eta: there is also perhaps some reason for optimism that the mortality rate is falling. Fewer deaths per hospitalisation in Spain atm than there were in it first wave.
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frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I guess the 1 in 100 number is going to be different for different groups of patients too.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
The survival stats for the over 75s are quite scary tbh.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Yep, especially when you factor in that it's actually the group with the most asymptomatic cases. Mortality for symptomatic covid in that group is more like 1 in 5.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Seriously?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
According to antibody test results yes.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Completely guessing, but I wonder if that's partly due to difficult history taking from older people, and picking out specific and new symptoms from underlying ongoing health issues....? So not asymptomatic as such, but harder to pinpoint. Classic cliched old person fallen down the stairs and with a broken hip just saying it's a bit sore kinda thing...
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Could be yeah. All these estimates have high degrees of uncertainty.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Which stats show that?
The UK blood-donor ones dont, they are pretty much the opposite of what you suggest:
From https://assets.publishing.service.g...COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_36_FINAL.pdf
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm glad you are keeping an eye on those numbers, I dont like talking about them on my own and I want people to double-check the pictures I present.
Where did you get the peak hospital number for the first wave in Spain? Their data was a mess during that period and I dont have good numbers until some point in May, when they were well past the peak, and even then the data format was not good till a few weeks ago. Up until April they were initially publishing hospital numbers by region as if they were cumulative totals of all hospitalised cases so far. But then numbers for a couple of those regions started to fall, which obviously shouldnt happen with cumulative totals, and then they started putting small print in about how a bunch of the regions were showing current numbers, not overall totals. But not all the regions, so it was a big mess. I could tell that Madrid peaked at around 15000 people in hospital because that was one of the regions that was reporting current numbers not totals, but I never found an overall peak hospital number for Spain as a whole.
Its funny that I dont actually agree about the usual lag between cases rises and hospitalisations when it comes to Spain during their virus resurgence. The delay was very small, smaller than I think we are used to seeing in this sort of data. Now I havent been tracking their daily number of cases myself, I just referred to a graph on worldometer for that. Daily positive cases increased by some stage in June, but didnt reach the sort of numbers where we would take note until July. And by 14th July I can see the number of 'cases hospitalised in the last 7 days' start to rise in a pretty consistent way. Modest at first for sure, with the figure on July 14th being about 10 times lower than the equaivalent 7 day total for September 3rd. But it was there and quite clear from quite early on, unlike what we often seem to see.
One reason for this might be partially explained by some other data. I believe the following numbers are for the period of May 10th onwards, so dont include the first peak, but rather everything from May 10th onwards when they presumably got their data in slightly better shape. Anyway the reason I am posting it is to point out that hospital figures are not simply driven by the old and not the young, at least not to the extent that people tend to end up thinking. Especially when very large numbers of young people are catching it, since a small percentage of a large number is still a substantial number.
From https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Se... COVID-19. Nº 42_03 de septiembre de 2020.pdf
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah I've been looking into that. I'd say the numbers in hospital for France are somewhat affected by the fact that in a number of regions the overall numbers in hospital were still falling, providing a fair bit of room for the falls to offset the increases. And this hasnt changed much in most regions yet. Although when I am saying 'a fair bit of room' this is because Im also assuming thats because there was still some downwards pressure on numbers as people who had been in hospital for ages were still finally coming out of that category in fair numbers. So it is certainly a good idea to look at daily new hospitalisations figures instead, as you have done. And when I graph those by region, we can see that the increases seen recently have been driven by a couple of regions so far. I'll need to start studying their number of positive cases per day per region in order to predict whether this picture will change in the near future, ie whether many other regions will start to show obvious rises soon.
Numbers currently in hospital by region (I didnt get round to entering all the data from before July to this yet):
Number of hospital admission per day:
Number of hospital admissions per day in rolling 7 day averages format, so basically just another way to show the data from the previous graph:
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elbows
Well-Known Member
A rare glimpse of someone in the UK media actually getting in on the European hospital situation and what it might mean for the UK angle. I suppose we will see more of this and less need for me to drone on, if this sort of thing is now part of what they are being briefed by the government etc.
From analysis by Hugh Pym within the following article.
From analysis by Hugh Pym within the following article.
Coronavirus: Further 2,988 cases confirmed in UK
The largest daily number of positive tests since 22 May is "concerning", the health secretary says.
www.bbc.co.uk
The situation in Greece is far worse than it was earlier in the year. There’s also an increase in younger people being hospitalised.
www.keeptalkinggreece.com
ETA: but see the comment from elbows below.
Greece ‘s Covid Observatory: Declining age of ICU patients, increase in deaths, hospitalizations - Keep Talking Greece
The latest surge in the coronavirus cases in Greece is showing a tendency toward stabilization but d
www.keeptalkinggreece.com
ETA: but see the comment from elbows below.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
The situation in Greece is far worse than it was earlier in the year. There’s also an increase in younger people being hospitalised.
Greece ‘s Covid Observatory: Declining age of ICU patients, increase in deaths, hospitalizations - Keep Talking Greece
The latest surge in the coronavirus cases in Greece is showing a tendency toward stabilization but d
The following bit didnt sound right:
So I checked. This is the first time I am looking at official reports and data from Greece. So maybe I will make a mistake too. But it looks like they made a massive mistake with that reporting. I found the 13th report and machine translated a bit and it actually said:
From 13η Έκθεση Προόδου Παρατηρητηρίου | CoVid19.gov.gr
And then I attempted to double-check my facts by looking at intubation numbers in daily reports here:
And it looked to me like as of the latest numbers, there was currently nobody under 40 intubated (12 people 40-64, 29 people 65+).
elbows
Well-Known Member
If you see the sort of sudden and dramatic falls as you saw in the case numbers for Spain, its best to assume its a data issue or a testing system issue.
In this case I'm afraid the more recent numbers for Spain are incomplete, as per comments on the worldometer site:
edited to add- it isnt likely to be only a few cases added retroactively either. I went backed and looked at some of the daily data for a recent period that we do actually have more complete data for now, and the daily numbers were many thousands short of the more complete numbers for those dates that were eventually published. It is reasonable to expect that when better data is available for early September, it will show a continued rise, a levelling off or a modest fall, rather than the huge drop presently shown by charts that are misleading without the smallprint.
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frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Mexico Runs Out Of Death Certificates Due To High COVID-19 Death Toll
Mexico has ordered the printing of 1.1 million additional death certificates as the country runs out of the essential document due to the high death toll brought by COVID-19.
www.latintimes.com
But yeah 'it's just flu...'
elbows
Well-Known Member
Recently I remembered this from June because at the time I checked and the shithead saying it was also Berlusconis doctor, as I mentioned in response back then. And I note that the shit idea he was peddling then that the virus has lost its potency was nowhere to be found months later when the very same doctor advised Berlusconi to go to hospital.
1h ago 17:12
