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I'm interested why you say this is the biggest existential threat to the communist party. Because it seems to me a democracy would have had severe problems restricting travel and closing cities which the Chinese communist party seems to have done with ease.

And the other thing is I can't see how rebellion against the communist party could take shape? Sure there might be dissent and muttering amongst the population but what mechanism is there for anyone to threaten the communist party?

A democracy wouldn't have had the outbreak in the first place. It is the auto-immune response of the fascist system - I use this word literally and precisely, not as hyperbole - presided over by the CCP to repress any bad news and downplay anything that could embarrass the leadership. This is happening at the same time as a swine flu outbreak which has caused shortages of pork, which also got out of control thanks to cover ups, and now we have a bird flu outbreak. This also raises the question of, why can the government be so mighty as to be able to monitor everyone's private conversations and purchases and rigidly control ideology and society, but despite all the political micromanaging they are unable to enforce basic health and safety and hygiene standards. Incidentally, this is also related to a lack of democracy and no independent laws - even if such laws exist (and they do AFAIK), laws in China aren't worth the paper they're written on and personal political connections decide everything. It is not possible for an employee of a factory to report health and safety violations, as it is almost certain that the owner of the factory is better connected and can ensure that it is the employee who suffers for defamation and "picking quarrels and spreading rumours." Also, the concept of going to the police for help simply doesn't occur to most Chinese people because of the nature of political culture there.

Whether people recognise that is a different question however. I think a large number of people are recognising that censorship has gone too far, even Hu Xijin, editor of the radically nationalistic Party mouthpiece tabloid "Global Times" tweeted that there needs to be more tolerance towards alternative voices because of the Wuhan outbreak cover up.

This is why it is an existential crisis:

1 - It is a national crisis, and the Internet police and state apparatus generally deal with local crises.
The state is capable of managing localised crises by scapegoating local officials, arresting a few ringleaders and censoring reports of the unrest to create an illusion of harmony. However, this is a national crisis and the internet police seem to be overwhelmed. There is a lot more dissent getting out, and the idea I posted above (that censorship is to blame for this crisis) has entered national discourse. The fact that censorship really IS to blame seems to have caused confusion in the Party's response (see Hu Xijin's tweet), as people within the central government will also be attacking Xi for overly tight control of Internet, media, society and ideology. Furthermore, as it is a national crisis, any backlash will be nationwide, and not limited to a county or township as is more normal.

2 - Destroys two pillars of legitimacy - the Party can deliver 1- economic success and 2- international prestige.
The Party has for some time hinged its legitimacy to economic success. It has been clear for some time that economic hard times will be coming (thanks to a declining workforce and serious demographic problems caused by the long term effects of the one child policy, capital flight as wages rise, and a stressed over leveraged financial system, not to mention severe environmental problems), and this is why there has been an attempt to shift in recent years towards emphasising "national strength" as a source of legitimacy.

The economy has been bad for a while, but this crisis is confirmation and the economy is probably not going to recover anytime soon. China's rise has been over for a while, but it has concealed this by throwing money it doesn't have at big international prestige projects like the Silk Road Initiative (which is also starting to backfire), 5G, and generally throwing its weight around. That countries are now closing their borders to Chinese people and a disease from China has created a global crisis is a huge loss of face. The crisis has not only finished off economic performance as a source of legitimacy, but also international prestige which was being prepared as a reserve. Also, important to bear in mind that state propaganda for the last few years has been emphasising how 乱disorderly foreign countries are in contrast to a stable and harmonious China. That illusion is totally destroyed now.

3 - Causing political divisions within the Party. Xi's anti-corruption drive has been chiefly aimed at his opponents connected to Jiang Zemin as well as Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang. In the process he has made many enemies. Xi's failures in his second term are mounting with each month, and I had initially been expecting a coup against him around 2022 when he would begin a third term after HK proved him to be a failure, but given how fast things are deteriorating, he may not even last 2020. Bear in mind that the 2 previous serious existential threats to the Communist Party - the 1989 democracy movement and the cultural revolution - were both the products of political divisions at the top. (General Secretary of the Communist Party, Zhao Ziyang, came out to support the students in 1989, and the protests started to commemorate the death of Hu Yaobang, a liberal former General Secretary of the CCP.)

4- The status quo is over and will not return. A key goal of the trade war with the US was to move supply chains out of China. The Chinese government has already mishandled this by retaliating against foreign companies in China and promoting nationalistic propaganda which has only accelerated the exit of foreign investment, but this crisis is going to massively accelerate the shift of supply chains to South East Asia and India, as foreigners evacuate the country and many won't return. On top of that, Xi's aggressive foreign policy was successful in the short term, but Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia in particular are starting to stand up to China in the South China Sea - in addition to growing confidence from ASEAN nations, we are also seeing a shift of the economic centre of gravity away from China and to ASEAN and India, which will be accelerated by this crisis. Also, India and Japan are working together to counter Chinese influence in Africa and Asia with their own "Asia Africa Growth Corridor" to rival the Silk Road. In light of these factors, the crisis spells the end of Xi Jinping's geopolitical project.

China's dream of "National Rejuvenation" (I.e. hegemony in Asia) has been scuppered. The confident jingoism of the 2010s is over, and now people are going to ask questions. Make no mistake, this is a tipping point in Chinese people's faith in their government.
 
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As someone who has worked in the construction industry for over 20 years, I’m lost in admiration of the achievement this represents:

A 1000 bed hospital constructed in 10 days is truly mind boggling, even given the fact they clearly just skipped the design phase completely and built it off plan, repeating one they’d already built elsewhere. This will not have been possible without considerable cost to the construction workers and whole supply chain - probably a fair number of unreported deaths and injuries onsite as health and safety will have gone out the window, but nevertheless a mind boggling accomplishment compared to normal accelerated timescales.

I wonder how many new cases have emerged in those ten days and whether even building hospitals in ten days will be enough to stay ahead of this outbreak?
 
Hi Rimbaud, just to deal with your very first point, you say a democracy wouldn't have had the outbreak in the first place, I don't follow that argument surely a virus can jump the species barrier in any country?

It can in any country in theory, sure, but the conditions that increase the likelihood of it happening don't exist in most democracies.

Apart from arresting people who reporting it for "spreading rumours" and telling people that everything was fine until it was already too late to stop the spread, the sort of civil society that would warn about the dangers of these wet markets doesn't exist in China. There are no health NGOs and there is no way to promote discussion and awareness of it outside of official channels without risking causing trouble for yourself. Also, for the reasons I've said above, health and safety regulations, which do actually exist, are generally not enforced in China or are enforced arbitrarily, and the legal system is not fit for purpose so it isn't realistic to report abuses.

It's not just bad luck that these things happen so often in China. They are totally predictable and preventable (or at least, the risk can be massively reduced) but it is not a priority for a state apparatus which doesn't like criticism and prioritises centrally set goals like GDP to win promotion for officials, and there is no element in society outside of officialdom that can raise awareness or create public pressure.

A quick Google found an outbreak originating in a wet market was predicted in a Netflix documentary a year ago, and I've heard the risk of it discussed many, many times over the years.

 
For the data crew


Yeah good stuff. One of the reasons people find it harder to stick to the facts at this stage is that there arent enough facts. So what facts there are tend to get stretched beyond the limits of what they really demonstrate.

Its no surprise that people want to get a sense of the mortality rate. None of the number being waved around in this area so far give me a true sense, so I have to be content to live with the uncertainty rather than fill in the blanks with info that isnt actually true!

Anyway I had a nice break yesterday and felt like returning to the subject briefly today. I'm going to have to put some effort in to keep my contributions to this thread down to a sensible frequency. A lot of the news doesnt really add anything new to the picture so hopefully I will pick more of the right targets for my attention in the weeks ahead.
 
It can in any country in theory, sure, but the conditions that increase the likelihood of it happening don't exist in most democracies.

I think you are stretching this point way too far. There are aspects of the Chinese regime that you are quite right to highlight in this context, but you give other nations and democracy far too much credit.

I say that because I am in the UK where we have an inquiry into an infected blood scandal. A country where the instincts of government when mad cow disease had been discovered, was to have a minister feed a burger to his child on tv.
 
I think you are stretching this point way too far. There are aspects of the Chinese regime that you are quite right to highlight in this context, but you give other nations and democracy far too much credit.

I say that because I am in the UK where we have an inquiry into an infected blood scandal. A country where the instincts of government when mad cow disease had been discovered, was to have a minister feed a burger to his child on tv.

Actually I don't think I'm stretching it at all.

Circa 2010, there was a nascent civil society in China. When I was studying in Beijing then, I used to sometimes hang out at a leftist bookstore in the University district called 乌有之乡 ("Utopia" is one translation) which held political meetings, movie screenings and discussions and so on. I also used to hang out at the Bookworm cafe, where there would often be talks about various political topics and where you could surprisingly buy books about sensitive topics in China. You used to meet a lot of people from western NGOs there, and there was recognition in official discourse that environmental NGOs had a role to play in managing pollution and so on. In Guangdong province under Wang Yang, there were experiments in allowing independent proto-trade unions as a way of providing services to the large numbers of migrant workers and of increasing wages as part of a shift towards a consumption led economy.

In 2012, around the same time that all Google services were totally banned and the internet started getting really bad, Utopia bookshop was shut down as part of a crackdown on supporters of Xi's leftist rival Bo Xilai, the biggest political purge since the Cultural Revolution. Likewise, when I last went to Bookworm in 2015 the selection of books was "harmonised" and it was a shadow of its former self, and it was finally shut down for good in 2019, with the reason given that the building was "unsafe" and it needed to be demolished.

The relatively open environment I describe 2010 as above is the sort of China I was very optimistic about and the sort of China which led to the documentary Under the Dome being made. The documentary was a smash hit and very widely viewed online when it was released in 2015, and it outlined the problems with enforcing environmental laws in China and called for the creation of some sort of public body for the general public to report environmental abuses to anonymously and for citizens to take action. It was praised by some parts of the government initially but after it became a sensation it was soon banned due to the fear of it causing collective action that could get out of hand - you can read more here Smash-hit Chinese pollution doc Under the Dome taken offline by government. One year later, the government passed the Foreign NGO law which basically crippled what remained of civil society. At the same time, lawyers and academics began to face heavier persecution and repression than at any point since 1989-1990.

The fact that we have a concrete example of somebody 5 years ago publicly calling for precisely the sort of measures (a public body to report violations of environmental laws to) that could have averted this disaster, and the response of the Xi Jinping government was to ban the documentary out of fear of empowering the public and to go in exactly the opposite direction, shows you what the problem we have here is. And that's even ignoring the fact they arrested people who reported the virus.

Look, I understand the instinct that many intelligent westerners have to point out that the west isn't perfect either, but in this particularly case that isn't an appropriate reaction. I actually kind of feel guilty for comforting Chinese people who expressed discontent with the state of censorship in China (during the time when China seemed to be moving in a positive direction) by saying how the media in the west isn't perfect either and talking about Murdoch or something, because this kind of common response from foreigners during that time has now been weaponised by the Xi government to tell people that the state of affairs in China is just the same as everywhere. It is not the same, and I feel like by drawing a false equivalence as a way of comforting Chinese people (or worse, selfishly making the discussion about my own government/society) I and the many foreigners who have done so have actually damaged China by legitimising the Xi regime and making it seem like there's nothing wrong with the sort of system that China is. At the time, it was generally assumed that China was moving towards a more open system, but now we know it is going in the opposite direction we absolutely should not be letting it off the hook in anyway.

In that video I posted earlier, the guy from Wuhan said that the best thing overseas Chinese can do is to spread the word and ensure that the government is held accountable for its mistakes. The damage control strategy of the Xi government now is to make a big flashy show of taking grandiose measures (e.g. the livestreamed hospital construction stunt, and some silly videos of the PLA looking heroic bringing medical supplies spammed all over Chinese social media) and getting the Wumao army to spam websites with praise about how impressive the measures China is taking are. We should not be suckered by this and let them wriggle out of being held accountable, to do so is a betrayal of all the Chinese people who wish for the same rights and securities that we take for granted - there is a very good chance that this failure could disgrace Xi's project and put China back on the path it seemed like it was on 10 years ago, and we shouldn't ruin that chance by talking about how the west isn't so great either and normalising the political situation in China.
 
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Rimbaud I can't really discuss the finer points of Chinese politics with you not having even visited the country once nor having followed the current affairs or politics closely.

When you say an existential crisis and suggests the current leadership could be in peril, I can only assume you mean from attack from within the communist party? So a communist on communist coup?
 
Rimbaud I can't really discuss the finer points of Chinese politics with you not having even visited the country once nor having followed the current affairs or politics closely.

When you say an existential crisis and suggests the current leadership could be in peril, I can only assume you mean from attack from within the communist party? So a communist on communist coup?

That's hard to say exactly.

The most plausible scenario is a reformist faction of the Party taking leadership of a mass movement emerging from civil unrest, or simply a reformist coup with no unrest accompanying it. I think at any rate that a coup against Xi is now all but inevitable, but the opacity of internal politics means its very hard to predict what would follow from that. I would like to think that Xi's vision has now been discredited and liberal voices will now have the upper hand, but it is hard to say for sure.

Apparently, Vpns are working without interference at the moment, and some things have been mysteriously unblocked. Some people reading the tea leaves have taken this as a sign that someone within the state apparatus is wanting people to see how things really are to prepare the ground for a coup. But, this is just conjecture. We'll see soon enough if it's true I guess.
 
1.2tn yuan to be pumped into Chinese markets to fight coronavirus slump

Under this “reverse repo” scheme, PBoC will purchase a range of securities from investors seeking ready cash, to avoid a wave of forced selling as investors return to work from the lunar new year break, which was extended after the coronavirus outbreak.

According to Reuters’ data, just over 1tn yuan of existing reverse repo contracts expire on Monday – the PBoC’s move will allow these to be rolled over, plus an extra 150bn yuan (£16bn) of fresh support.

I don't know what a "reverse repo" is .. but the government is going to add some support to the economy.
 
Well I'm not going to argue about the politics further, I think we are just coming at it from two very different angles. And nothing I said is supposed to diminish the possible political ramifications, its just that I have trouble keeping quiet when something unique is said to have happened that I dont find unique at all. History is littered with grotesque failings in infectious disease control and the responses of authorities, and it should be possible for me to point this out without it in any way diminishing the magnitude of any such failings which have happened this time around.
 
I've had the misfortune of ordering two products both of which are now delayed as product and components are from Wuhan. First one based in China the website says staff cannot go back till 10th February. other product is from Malaysian which gets is components from Wuhan. so something I paid over £400 for which was due to ship early April will probably be delayed longer now.
 




I don't know what a "reverse repo" is .. but the government is going to add some support to the economy.


its not calling in debts effectively- the chinese economy is spooked here and the relaince on ever increasing returns is the albatross in the room. or some such metpahor. its going to very tight wrt wages and shit for many citizens this month.this could be a trigger for a correction globally if you have been waiting for this. im not going to post up any wechat derived rumours but the discontent ( as brought up earlier) is out there- whether is is being seen as an escape valve for the present situation or leads to more direct action remains to be seen.
 
A factory in northefn Thailand closed due to delays unable to get raw materials.

Thai hotels, chinese owned hotels and holiday resorts deserted due to no Chinese tourists.
 
The total number of people infected with the virus in China rose to 17,205 across the country, after 2,829 new cases were reported since yesterday, and deaths are now 361. :(

Apparently the first of those new hospitals has started accepting patients, with the other due to open on Wednesday, and it looks like they could do with even more.

Latest figures from China's National Health Commission on Monday revealed:

  • 21,558 suspected cases of the virus
  • 152,700 people "under medical watch"
  • 475 people discharged from hospital
Source - BBC
 
A handful of more people confirmed in India all students from studying in China. If this gets loose on the subcontinent it will get out of hand v quickly.

 
With all the news about travel bans and other restrictions, here are a couple of older papers looking at how effective travel restrictions seem to have been in relation to influenza.

A systematic review from 2014:


A 2011 study that looked at these issues in the context of the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic:


So not very effective then, with the suggestion that even if far more draconian measures were taken, you only buy a little more time.
 
We are a fair bit further along in the 'its probably going to be a pandemic' phase of expert discourse. I suppose its been reasonable to say something like that for around 10 days, but its not the sort of thing most experts rush into saying at the very earliest opportunity, for good reason. As time goes on without a positive change to the picture, it starts to get said more explicitly.

“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

 
We know people can be infectious for 14 days before they show symptoms, but for how long overall can they be infectious? Presumably while they have the flu like symptoms they are still infectious, what about after that?

It seems that in addition to concerns about asymptomatic cases possibly being able to spread it, the Germany cases also included a worryingly high amount of viral load in the sputum of a convalescent patient.

The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak. In this context, the detection of 2019-nCoV and a high sputum viral load in a convalescent patient (Patient 1) arouse concern about prolonged shedding of 2019-nCoV after recovery. Yet, the viability of 2019-nCoV detected on qRT-PCR in this patient remains to be proved by means of viral culture.


More examples would need to be detected and studied in order to prove anything in this regard, so I wont jump to any conclusions.
 
The leaking in China of personal information of people with Wuhan travel history brings an added dimension of horror to this side of the story.

 
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Sorry I haven’t been paying close enough attention to know, but has this link been posted?


Tracking confirmed cases and deaths by location. Has gone up by around 3000 since yesterday
 
Just trying to fill in a bit more historical info regarding serology tests that are used to eventually get a better sense of true level of infections, proportion of mild and asymptomatic cases etc.

2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza provides a bunch of excellent historical examples of the sort of study that is undertaken in this area. I had forgotten that UK boarding schools are an interesting source of data. Anyway here are a few examples which may help understanding what sort of work will be done at some stage in regards 2019-nCoV, if the spread becomes wide:


I expect there will be lots of other papers too but I dont think there is much point in me trying to list them all.

Online flu tracking surveys and specific keyword search volumes have also become an interesting and useful source of data in the last decade or so. This stuff seems to correlate fairly well with reality, and so is taken seriously and used in official monitoring reports. I dont know to what extent the signal to noise ratio of such things gets too poor at times like this though, where there is heightened media and public interest and concern about an emerging infection, at a time of year when there are plenty of other 'influenza-like illnesses' doing the rounds due to the season. If forced to guess I'd say such things would make it harder to spot smaller incidents of outbreak, but beyond a certain size such outbreaks would still show up in the data despite the noise (especially when our actual flu season is well past its peak as seems to be the case in the UK right now).
 
Of course the more asymptomatic cases, or cases so mild as to be written off as an ordinary cold, the lower the true mortality rate will be relative to the known/reported mortality rate.

That's the good news. The bad news is for detection, containment etc.
 
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