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elbows said:
Putin has extended the 'dont go to work' measures till the end of the month. Other measures to be taken on a regional basis.
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A friend in Moscow says that two weeks ago, to prevent people from traveling, the city officials have blocked all smart travel cards (Oyster equivalent) and unified travel passes. This has pissed off a lot of people. The pensioners are being told not to go further than 100 meters from the houses they live in.
Essential workers are being issued with special travel passes.
 
weltweit said:
So far I haven't seen any masks on sale, that'll be me excluded from the shops then :-/
Although from the wording it seems a bandana will suffice.
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Yeah, masks seem very hard to come by, I’ve ordered a pack of 2 with charcoal filters (n95?) but they don’t arrive for I think another month.

My dad gave me a pack of painters masks, very cheap with straps stapled on, one side pinged off straight away and wearing it is very hot with muffled breathing 😐
 
Sounds like the USA is considering mandating mask wearing in public at a federal level. UK might well follow suit, especially if the WHO changes its advice, but how are we supposed to get masks? when even the NHS was having trouble getting enough.
 
weltweit said:
Sounds like the USA is considering mandating mask wearing in public at a federal level. UK might well follow suit, especially if the WHO changes its advice, but how are we supposed to get masks? when even the NHS was having trouble getting enough.
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Altern-8 need to set up a factory :)
 
weltweit said:
Does that not reflect more that testing has been very limited in many or most even countries?
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I'm not sure you could extrapolate that without more information.

Over the past three or four weeks it has risen from around 5% to 20%. Earlier than that it held steady for some time in the 10-15% range. The mild/serious active split went from around 85/15% to 95/5% and has held there for some weeks.
 
Following up on a few posts from Sunday. These were originally in the UK thread but since the theme was Germany I thought it was more appropriate to follow up in this thread instead:

littlebabyjesus said:
TIme will tell on that. There are two crucial factors, aren't there. First the capacity of the health services and ability not to be overwhelmed, which we have seen in Italy causes deaths, and second when the exponential growth is arrested.

We have the example of S Korea where that growth was nipped in the bud right at the start. Germany hasn't done that, but they have been aggressively testing and tracing, and they've been in lockdown for more than a week now. So Germany's figures are much more encouraging than the UK's if lockdown is an effective measure, because they've been in lockdown longer than us and their death rate is still much lower.

ETA: Another encouraging stat from Germany is the number now reported to have recovered, which has risen to 8,000-odd. That's an indication of how long the thing has been around in Germany - they could be approaching their peak quite soon.

(Of course, events may prove me wrong on all of the above points.)
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elbows said:
Infection control in hospitals and elsewhere is a third crucial factor.

I am not encouraged by Germanys figures at all. If, in 5 days time, they have way lower than 1000 deaths in total, then maybe I can start to be more optimistic about the way it will go there.
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Germanys death figures failed to stay below 1000 within the timeframe I mentioned, so I cannot change my levels of optimism about Germany. How are you feeling about the more recent data from Germany littlebabyjesus ?

I should say that we are well past the stae where I would talk as though every country in europe would be identical, we might still see quite a lot of variation in terms of total deaths over time, but I am not ready to predict any specifics on that front other than the very obvious in regards Spain and Italy.
 
weltweit said:
Germany is still on the exponential line according to this, from : Covid Trends dropping down just slightly compared to USA.

View attachment 204561
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That's confirmed cases, though. It's actually flattening out - a curve means not exponential - but it's such an artefact of the testing regime that it's very flawed as a measure, or at least, it needs caveats to be added. Germany is now conducting more than 50,000 tests per day. So only around 10 per cent of tests are coming back positive. It's conducting more tests than ever but its daily totals have plateaued over the last few days.

Its current death rates vs new cases rate suggest very strongly that places like the UK, about half of whose tests are coming back positive, are more infected than Germany. We just haven't discovered it yet. And hence cannot more effectively target resources.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
..
Its current death rates vs new cases rate suggest very strongly that places like the UK, about half of whose tests are coming back positive, are more infected than Germany. We just haven't discovered it yet. And hence cannot more effectively target resources.
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1,066 deaths, up 168, and 6,655 new cases in the last 24 hours.
I hope you are right in your optimism for Germany.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
The optimism is tempered by the pessimism that I am sure the UK is going to come out of this much, much more badly than Germany.
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Seems likely. Hope our social distancing and lockdown may have an effect on UK numbers though.
I suppose it is still a few weeks before we could see any change to our figures.
 
weltweit said:
Seems likely. Hope our social distancing and lockdown may have an effect on UK numbers though.
I suppose it is still a few weeks before we could see any change to our figures.
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Oh they will. Lockdown works. It just works excruciatingly slowly. But it's working even in Italy and Spain, although I'm sure it doesn't much feel like it yet.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
The optimism is tempered by the pessimism that I am sure the UK is going to come out of this much, much more badly than Germany.
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I continue to hope for a rapid rollout of drug treatments, and am keeping a constant watch on the various trials, which are proceeding at a remarkable pace. No guarantees of course, but at this stage, can't see anything else.
 
Azrael said:
I continue to hope for a rapid rollout of drug treatments, and am keeping a constant watch on the various trials, which are proceeding at a remarkable pace. No guarantees of course, but at this stage, can't see anything else.
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I'm just fucking angry at the moment because things are so much worse than they should be here. There are no excuses.
 
Azrael said:
Seems to be having an effect in Italy at least.
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Spain is a little way behind Italy. Also, it is crucial how bad you were as you entered lockdown (a reason I'm optimistic for Germany and 'who the fuck knows' for us). Spain was in a state when it entered lockdown. Complacency to panic overnight. (Not too dissimilar to here.) Plus Spain's health service has been experiencing savage cuts for years, and wasn't great even before the cuts.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
I'm just fucking angry at the moment because things are so much worse than they should be here. There are no excuses.
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I think the only regions that were properly prepared were places in Asia like Singapore Hong Kong South Korea, and perhaps even China itself, while China misfired with it at first, when it got going it threw massive resource at the issue.
 
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