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Unfortunately, it's time to get out, I'd say. Getting out at all could get much harder.

The Chinese airlines are still operating to the UK and there must be connecting options available. I'm guessing the cost might be high. Is it more to do with getting to the cities in China where these flights depart from?
 
Personally still think China is very, very unlikely to have widespread social problems. Everything I’ve seen indicates that faith in the government may have been disrupted a bit, but is holding strong for most. From maomao’s talk on in-laws to chats with friends there. More broadly than that there’s plenty of (mild) nationalism from teachers/assistants etc I used to know.

On the other hand, if it goes much beyond the normal holiday and lack of wages starts to bite... or food shortages. No amount of faith in government will get round that. Though it’s probably more likely that people will just start going back to normal life, even with the virus still around. It is a risk though, and there’s always the possibility of bad feeling toward foreigners.
 
I think I'd be inclined to take my chances on a flight out - if this outbreak gets much worse, food shortages, social unrest, etc. could be next, which is not a situation I'd want to try to navigate as a foreigner living in a dictatorship.

Agreed.

A lot of people aren't going to get paid at the end of this month. Things could get quite dangerous.
 
The Chinese airlines are still operating to the UK and there must be connecting options available. I'm guessing the cost might be high. Is it more to do with getting to the cities in China where these flights depart from?

It's just hard to say how long other airlines will be offering flights. Russia just closed their borders to China. I'd say things are very unpredictable right now, and if you had the ability to take a trip for a few weeks, this would be a good time. Especially since all schools are closed right now anyway.
 
The Chinese airlines are still operating to the UK and there must be connecting options available. I'm guessing the cost might be high. Is it more to do with getting to the cities in China where these flights depart from?

I've been told getting to and from airports without your own car is pretty much impossible. Taxi drivers have been told to turn down airport work and bus and train services have been cancelled indefinitely.
 
I've been told getting to and from airports without your own car is pretty much impossible. Taxi drivers have been told to turn down airport work and bus and train services have been cancelled indefinitely.

Many Intercity buses have been cancelled yes, but I haven't heard of train services being cancelled outside Hubei. Yesterday I got a train to Shanghai and then a taxi to the airport before flying out (entirely planned for work). Only difference was what seemed to be cursory temperature scans at the train station and airport.
 
The nextstrain analysis has been updated with more samples.

Here I have just cherrypicked one thing in particular, because it belongs in the discussion about mutations and the misleading media narrative about them that often pop up at times like this.

We currently see little genetic diversity across the nCoV sequences, with 11 out of 42 sequences having no unique mutations.

Low genetic diversity across these sequences suggests that the most recent common ancestor of all nCoV sequences was fairly recent, since mutations accumulate slowly compared to other RNA viruses at a rate of around 1-2 mutations per month for coronaviruses. Generally, repeated introductions from an animal reservoir will show significant diversity (this has been true for Lassa, Ebola, MERS-CoV and avian flu). The observation of such strong clustering of human infections can be explained by an outbreak that descends from a single zoonotic introduction event into the human population followed by human-to-human epidemic spread.

We are starting to see groups of sequences that share mutations. One cluster contains sequences from Guangdong and four isolates from the US. Other clusters contain two to four isolates. Sequences in these clusters tend to be from more recent samples, suggesting that the virus has started to accumulate mutations as it spread in Wuhan and subsequently to other cities. There is currently no evidence that these mutations change how the virus behaves -- it is expected that RNA viruses mutate.

 
There’s a video doing the rounds of how things look in Nanjing, it’s wechat specific though. And probably too sentimental/patriotic for urban... sweeping drone shots and the like. Has people working (快递, supermarkets, drivers) and shopping though.... and metro. I guess that will be reflected on a wider basis. People will just go back to work because they have to. How that works in terms of wider logistics, especially international I suppose remains to be seen. And also in terms of schools, universities etc.
 
There is going to be an economic cost. Chinese companies are struggling to get their employees back to work.

This has implications for companies worldwide which source their products from China.
 
Were there travel restrictions around SARS? Have completely forgotten how it panned out.
 
Were there travel restrictions around SARS? Have completely forgotten how it panned out.

I've plucked some relevant entries from the wikipedia SARS timeline, dates are all 2003. Most of this stuff relates to warnings rather than outright bans:


On March 15, WHO issued a heightened global health alert about mysterious pneumonia with a case definition of SARS after cases in Singapore and Canada were also identified. The alert included a rare emergency travel advisory to international travellers, healthcare professionals, and health authorities.

The CDC issued a travel advisory stating that persons considering travel to the affected areas in Asia (Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam, and China) should not go.

On April 1, the U.S. government called back non-essential personnel in their consulate office in Hong Kong and Guangzhou. The US government also advised US citizens not to travel to the region.

On April 11, the World Health Organization issued a global health alert for SARS as it became clear the disease was being spread by global air travel.

On April 28, WHO declared the outbreak in Vietnam to be over as no new cases were reported for 20 days.

On April 29, leaders of member countries of ASEAN and the PRC premier held an emergency summit in Bangkok, Thailand in order to address the SARS problem. Among the decisions made were the setting-up of a ministerial-level task force and uniform pre-departure health screening in airports.

On April 30, the World Health Organization lifted the SARS travel warning for Toronto. The decision was made because "it is satisfied with local measures to stop the spread of SARS". Canadian officials said they would step up screenings at airports.[28]

On May 3, the 2003 FIFA Women's World Cup was abruptly moved to the United States due to the outbreak. China maintained its automatic qualification and later hosted the Women's World Cup 4 years later.

On May 19, the WHO Annual Meeting was held in Geneva. Hong Kong pushed for the Tourism Warning to be lifted.

On May 20, the WHO refused to lift the Tourism Warning for Hong Kong and Guangdong.

On May 23, after a recount of the number of SARS patients, the WHO lifted the Tourism Warning from Hong Kong and Guangdong.

On May 31, Singapore was removed from WHO's list of 'Infected Areas'.

On June 23, Hong Kong was removed from WHO's list of 'Affected Areas', while Toronto, Beijing, and Taiwan remained.

On July 5, WHO declared the SARS outbreak contained and removed Taiwan from the list of affected areas. There had been no new cases for 20 days although around 200 people were still hospitalized with the disease.

Awareness, information and spread timings were different with SARS, and the timing was also different in relation to the seasons.
 
I've plucked some relevant entries from the wikipedia SARS timeline, dates are all 2003. Most of this stuff relates to warnings rather than outright bans:














Awareness, information and spread timings were different with SARS, and the timing was also different in relation to the seasons.

Travel within China was, I think significantly different too... no experience of it then, but for example since 2003 they’ve basically built an entire high speed rail network (over which time we failed to even plan one, but that’s another subject).

Just trying to think in terms of the wider social and economic implications, but really China has changed so rapidly, and the situation is different in any case... almost impossible to draw any useful comparison.
 
Just trying to think in terms of the wider social and economic implications, but really China has changed so rapidly, and the situation is different in any case... almost impossible to draw any useful comparison.

Yeah, coupled with too many unknowns at this stage makes it hard for me to make any grand proclamations!

Even the Public Heath Emergency of International Concern system (PHEIC) was only brought in after SARS. By the way I expect one of those to be declared later today and when that is announced it will be consistent with what we already know, not a sign that something we havent been told yet has been discovered.
 
There's been some announcements on guaranteeing wages but iirc it varies from province to province, some setting minimum percentages others just suggesting giving a living allowance. Of course. practically unenforceable for many if not most even in best policy areas.
 
Why wont they be paid? I'm confused?

Well to give an example, a friend of mine works at a private English training centre. This is actually one of their most profitable times of year because while public schools are closed, parents send their kids to special English courses. These courses are cancelled, so no income for the school, and there will likely be trouble paying staff this month as a result. This will be happening in many, many workplaces.
 
Regarding pharma responses, this from Wuxi who manufacture drugs for lots of big pharma companies

"the Chinese company also said it has assembled a team of more than 100 R&D folks to work on a variety of “neutralizing antibodies” from some of its biotech clients that may be used against the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). It expects to have the first batch ready for preclinical and human studies in two months and commercial supplies ready in record time.

“Compared with the traditional timeline of 12 to 18 months, all studies from DNA to IND could hopefully be completed in 4-5 months while maintaining high quality,” it said. Given its reactor capacity, a single batch could make enough antibodies to treat 80,000 patients"
 
I wonder.

If you get the virus and survive, are you then immune from contracting it again?

I believe the assumption, unless proven (or at least strongly hinted at) otherwise, is that a good degree of immunity would be granted by having been infected, but this would diminish over time. For two reasons: these sorts of viruses make quite a lot of mistakes when copying themselves, so over time they mutate and diverge away from how they used to look, making our immune systems less likely to recognise them. And it could be that the capability our immune systems build up in regards the virus also declines over time for other reasons unrelated to the virus changing.

One of the things I need to do is spend more time reading about the existing coronaviruses that are not the dramatic SARS and MERS ones, but rather the couple we know about that are responsible for a percentage of the 'common colds' we experience, largely seasonally, and apparently we tend to experience these in waves of worse seasons every 3-4 years. For all I know the perceived 3-4 year cycles could tell us something about longevity of immunity, or it may be down to other factors, or a mix of both. I think I was reading something about one of these strains that suggested genetic research indicated it probably spilled over from bats to humans in the 19th century. So I've only read a small and somewhat random collection of info about these less famous, but make no mistake, highly prevalent coronaviruses have been around all our lives. I think the first thing I thought when I started searching was 'oh no, not another disease that we have researched so much less than I was hoping'.
 
Would having the pneumonia vaccine give any protection?

Only in the sense that sometimes more than one infection can happen at the same time, so sometimes other things are given to prevent these co-infections. But it wont actually do anything to prevent coronavirus infection.
 
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