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We will be obliged to out of a sort of international comradeship but also and more relevantly out of pure self interest, if we sat back and permitted countries like these to be massive viral hot spots we would never return to the sort of world order we knew in our past.

Yes, I'm optimistically hoping there will be an international coordinated effort to try and get this under control but wondering how quickly that might happen. Seems a long way off at the moment.
 
Yes, I'm optimistically hoping there will be an international coordinated effort to try and get this under control but wondering how quickly that might happen. Seems a long way off at the moment.
Well China seems to either officially or unofficially to be helping other countries, a team of Chinese medical staff went to assist in Italy and supplies of Chinese PPE etc have been shipped to various countries. Also I understand the Chinese president has been talking to Trump, although it seems he has not had so much influence there yet!
 
This temptingly reassuring Sky News segment popped up via the YouTube algorithm this evening:



Seen this one, elbows?

Yes, it is quite possible, certainly mild cases can be so mild it is my understanding that you can not even know you have had it. But nice as that theory sounds it can only be proven with extensive public testing and our testing capacity isn't yet robust enough even to properly test the NHS frontline workers, and that is with a test to find out if they have it, not a test to find out if they have had it and are thus now immune.
 
The main problem with that Oxford model only arises when the media report on it in a misleading way.

I spoke way too much about the study this week already, so here is an article by someone else instead.

 
FUCKING AMERICA

A 17-year-old boy in Los Angeles County who became the first teen believed to have died from complications with covid-19 in the U.S. was denied treatment at an urgent care clinic because he didn’t have health insurance, according to R. Rex Parris, the mayor of Lancaster, California. Roughly 27.5 million Americans—8.5 percent of the population—don’t have health insurance based on the latest government figures.

“He didn’t have insurance, so they did not treat him,” Parris said in a video posted to YouTube. The staff at the urgent care facility told the teen to try the emergency room at Antelope Valley (AV) Hospital, a public hospital in the area, according to the mayor.

 
India is taking the virus very seriously as reported on the WHO site:
On 24 March 2020, the Prime Minister announced a 21-day nationwide lockdown: “In order to protect the country, and each of its citizens, from midnight tonight, a complete ban is being imposed on people from stepping out of their homes.”
Nobody is allowed out of their homes at all, for any reason!
 
editor, I wonder if this period just might make the USA wake up and realise that their health system isn't good enough to serve the needs of their population. And it wastes so much money also compared to our system.
 
editor, I wonder if this period just might make the USA wake up and realise that their health system isn't good enough to serve the needs of their population. And it wastes so much money also compared to our system.
I would like to think so but I doubt it. At least, not with the perma-tanned moron in charge.
 
Epidemiology of the King County, Washington State care home outbreak.


As of March 18, a total of 167 confirmed cases of Covid-19 affecting 101 residents, 50 health care personnel, and 16 visitors were found to be epidemiologically linked to the facility. Most cases among residents included respiratory illness consistent with Covid-19; however, in 7 residents no symptoms were documented. Hospitalization rates for facility residents, visitors, and staff were 54.5%, 50.0%, and 6.0%, respectively. The case fatality rate for residents was 33.7% (34 of 101). As of March 18, a total of 30 long-term care facilities with at least one confirmed case of Covid-19 had been identified in King County.
 
editor, I wonder if this period just might make the USA wake up and realise that their health system isn't good enough to serve the needs of their population. And it wastes so much money also compared to our system.
I think it's possible. But sadly it will only be made possible if there is a total catastrophe in the US, with thousands, or more probably tens of thousands, shown to have died unnecessarily.
 
South Korea seems of interest as a bit of a success story so I have been reading some sites:

Fearing the worst, she decided to get a Covid-19 test at one of the dozens of drive-through centres. Two people dressed head-to-toe in white protective clothing, clear goggles and surgical face masks are ready for her.

Nearly 20,000 people are being tested every day for coronavirus in South Korea, more people per capita than anywhere else in the world.

Rachel's sample is quickly shipped off to a nearby laboratory where staff are working 24 hours a day to process the results.

Health officials believe this approach may be saving lives. The fatality rate for coronavirus in South Korea is 0.7%. Globally the World Health Organization has reported 3.4% - but scientists estimate that the death rate is lower because not all cases are reported.

From: Is S Korea's rapid testing the key to coronavirus?

Amid these dire trends, South Korea has emerged as a sign of hope and a model to emulate. The country of 50 million appears to have greatly slowed its epidemic; it reported only 74 new cases today, down from 909 at its peak on 29 February. And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that helped China bring its epidemic under control. “South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. South Korea’s success may hold lessons for other countries—and also a warning: Even after driving case numbers down, the country is braced for a resurgence.

Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.

from: Coronavirus cases have dropped sharply in South Korea. What’s the secret to its success?

Perhaps there is no secret, they are just testing tracing and isolating without lockdowns, just keeping at it and relentlessly hunting the virus down. If we are to believe their figures and I feel as a democracy with little to motivate them to lie I probably do, I think other nations can learn from South Korea.

As SheilaNaGig mentioned though in another post a couple of days ago, little news from their northern neighbour. I may have a search for that now actually.
 
So, it seems North Korea closed its border with China early in the outbreak but still has infections in its population, it is reported to be requesting help to get its testing program underway despite having some testing kits in country, but it fears the virus could damage its fragile health system.

It has not admitted to any cases however or fatalities.
from: Subscribe to read | Financial Times

Around 80 foreigners who were quarantined for weeks in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, have finally left the country.

The Air Koryo flight to Vladivostok is the first commercial flight to leave North Korea in over a month, said specialist news site NK News.

Flight KOR271 landed in the far-eastern Russian city on Monday morning.

The embassy staff who left had been confined to their compounds for weeks during February and early March.

Among those onboard were diplomats from Germany, Russia, France, Switzerland, Poland, Romania, Mongolia and Egypt, Russia's embassy in North Korea said in a Facebook post.

from: Foreigners leave N Korea on first flight in weeks

So, despite reading a few sites thrown up by my searching there really isn't much information online, apart from the suggestion that NK has been secretly asking for help.
 
Another ship of doom, 4 people have died & dozens showing symptoms, it's stranded off Panama, with the authorities refusing to allow it to use the canal, because that would require them to put some of their people on-board to navigate it. It''s actually one of at least 10 ships now stranded across the world, with many thousands on-board. :(

Passengers on a cruise ship stranded off the coast of Panama have issued a desperate plea to be allowed to dock after four people died during a covid-19 outbreak on board.

Two people have tested positive for the disease and dozens are ill with flu-like symptoms on the Zaandam luxury cruise liner, which has not been able to dock after several Latin American countries closed their ports in response to the global pandemic.

 
Germany, with a strong medical sector, more acute beds than most other EU members and it appears thus far more testing and fewer deaths than comparable EU countries. What are they doing?

Germany has a remarkably low coronavirus death rate — thanks largely to mass testing, but also culture, luck, and an impressive healthcare system
..
Germany is testing as many as 120,000 people a week, meaning the number of cases keeps rising while the number of deaths trickle in slowly.
..
49,603 Germans had tested positive for the coronavirus as of March 27, with 308 deaths, according to the German magazine Zeit. That means Germany has a death rate of 0.62%.
..
That rate is far below that of Spain, which is at 7.6%, China at 4.05%, and Italy, which is at 10.2%.
from: Germany has a remarkably low coronavirus death rate — thanks largely to mass testing, but also culture, luck, and an impressive healthcare system

In Germany, just 0.6% of their confirmed coronavirus cases have so far ended up being fatal - the lowest figure amongst any of the most affected countries.

The next best case fatality rate is 1.4%, which can be found in the United States, Switzerland, Portugal and South Korea, while in some countries the death rate is substantially higher.

In Italy, 10.1% of confirmed cases have ended up proving fatal.

However, more widespread testing and finding more infected people reduces your case fatality rate just by dint of your increased testing. The people are still dead.

In the early stages of the disease Germany carried out thousands of tests and implemented rigorous contact tracing.
..
By testing people who might have been exposed to the disease, Germany has been able to identify cases of coronavirus quicker and isolate people who have been infected.

This has helped prevent the disease from being spread to vulnerable groups
..
The initial concentration of the disease among younger people in Germany appears to have been because many of those infected were people returning from skiing holidays in Italy.

They therefore tended to be relatively young and fit and passed the disease on to other people of a similar age.

Subsequently, more of this group were able to recover from the disease than if the virus had been spread evenly across all ages.
from Coronavirus: Why Germany has such a low COVID-19 death rate

So, it seems early infections were amongst younger parts of Germany's population and not being a vulnerable group more of them recovered, plus Germany has been widely testing tracing and isolating like South Korea, and Germany has a more resourced and prepared medical sector with the highest number of acute beds in the EU, so patients falling ill are getting the best care.
 
I think its an out of date impression of how well Germany is doing.

Here is the latest version of my dreaded table. I havent figured out whether to adjust UK data to account for new timing of figures, so far I left it alone.
1585395247028.png
 
Yep, daily deaths are starting to increase in Germany, daily figures for Mon - Fri are 29, 36, 47, 61 & 84.
 
editor, I wonder if this period just might make the USA wake up and realise that their health system isn't good enough to serve the needs of their population. And it wastes so much money also compared to our system.

The annoying thing about the US is that there is a very solid bedrock of support for something to change in its medical system but the sheer weight of money and the senators in bed with it have stemmed any change for half a century or more.

It's insane.
 
I think it's possible. But sadly it will only be made possible if there is a total catastrophe in the US, with thousands, or more probably tens of thousands, shown to have died unnecessarily.

It’s possible but unlikely. Trump will be given a pass by his fans at the election because he’s working so hard to preserve the economy/their personal wealth and the pandemic is foreign/not his fault/couldn’t be predicted. Added to this the bonkers end-times hard core Xians who see him as an agent of their god: this “plague” will confirm their belief that it’s all panning out as they predict, so strengthen their support of Trump.

But also, it’s hard for anyone who’s not witnessed it first hand to understand how thoroughly and intractably the right hate the disenfranchised. I don’t just mean they’re politically averse, I mean they have a deeply emotional sense of fear and disgust for anyone who hasn’t successfully climbed aboard the American Dream bandwagon. Even those who are themselves poor and disenfranchised are utterly opposed to anyone who doesn’t demonstrate their adherence to the story. These adherants are going to become very much more entrenched and defensive of their myth in the coming months. They will defend their own creation story identify (pioneering, independent, self-sufficient, loyal to family and nationhood (define “nation” as applicable) ) ahead of any other factor.

They will see this catastrophe as inevitable, a reckoning, a test of the fittest, an opportunity for cleansing society. They will shrug at the horror, tuck in and circle their wagons around their own and arm themselves against anyone else.

The sane and kind are in the minority in America. And it is a kind of madness, this stubborn blind inability to connect with the suffering of anyone outsider heir own experience. It’s what’s made them so successful around the world, but it’s the secret hollow in the heart of their culture.

Nothing will make them more caring, because that necessitates the dismantling of their self identity.

Well, it might happen if their self identify is destroyed by this pandemic, but then we’d be witnessing some kind of social apocalypse.

Wait... Isn’t that where I started ....? And round we go.



The US does seem poised for nothing short of a catastrophe. A toxic mix of nasty shit going on there which could easily see the death rate hit the millions. Obviously I hope I'm wrong but it looks really grim.


I'm deeply concerned about this.

I have friends and family all over America, including New York City and NY state. Fortunately a lot of them have been ignoring Trump's hubris and voluntarily locking down for weeks.

This is going to be such a shit show. Millions of invisible disenfranchised unsupported destitute people, many of them with opiate addictions and serious comorbities, no kind of supple widespread public health care system. People will be using brute force and guns to try to access help and to defend their own homes and properties.

In relative terms the UK may get off lightly (at least in the first wave). For developing countries, places under the cosh of war, poverty, abuse of power, it's inevitable that this is going to be harrowing. It seems peculiar and ironically fitting that the most powerful most developed most equipped most advanced yaddah yaddah nation, who has repeatedly and ignorantly stomped all over everything for so long could find themselves in the same kind of deep danger as those nations they've been stomping on.




As an aside, with regards public health care:

Back in 1986 I was travelling around America in my early 20s. I got sick in New Orleans and went to the public hospital. I hold an American passport so I was eligible for basic health care. It was a normal February day, no pandemic or other disaster (although at that time NO had a very high murder rate, there had already been more than 30 murders in the city, so one every day that year). The waiting room was overcrowded, queues down the corridors. I waited for 2 hours to be triaged and another 5 hours to be seen by a doctor, who assessed me, prescribed antibiotics and discharged me in less than 10 minutes. In that 7 hours I saw 2 gunshot wounds coming in, people in respiratory distress struggling and gasping, people in wheelchairs, and someone died in the waiting room. They didn’t even put a curtain around him while he died, they laid him on the floor and held him and then they put a blanket over him and called for a porter with a gurney.

This was the mid eighties and pre-Katrina so hopefully there are much better hospital facilities there now. But small more isolated towns will still have limited facilities. This pandemic is going to be utterly overwhelming for poor America while Amerikka does a better job of taking taking care of itself.
 
The annoying thing about the US is that there is a very solid bedrock of support for something to change in its medical system but the sheer weight of money and the senators in bed with it have stemmed any change for half a century or more.

It's insane.


It’s still a minority, this solid bedrock.

It bewilders me that even many who would benefit from a better public healthcare system are ideologically opposed to it.
 
UK doesn’t seem to be on the same curve as Italy, thankfully. I wonder if that is due to earlier preventative measures, even the basic stuff like hand washing, or just down to demographics and other factors?
 
It bewilders me that even many who would benefit from a better public healthcare system are ideologically opposed to it.
Best summed up the words of a girlfriend of a good friend I had a monster argument with a few years back in New York. She asked what I was most proud of as a British person. I responded that it was the NHS and its free healthcare for all principles (at least when it was formed)

Her response: "Why should I pay for some bum to get better?"

It's all tied in with that American dream of doing better for yourself, pulling yourself up by your bootstraps and being a raging, fabulous success. And fuck anyone who gets in your way or any commie who tries to take any of your hard eared money and give it to someone who hasn't worked as hard as you. Or something,
 
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