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[elbows]

Germany, with its somewhat mixed approach so far, with some features more in common with UK position and others not so much, should be an interesting one to compare to the UK in the weeks ahead. Their reported number of deaths is currently similar to the UK too. They are also mentioning 4-5 weeks, but in a different way to the UK.

12m ago 21:14

Our Berlin correspondent Kate Connolly has just followed a press conference in Berlin headed by Angela Merkel, which followed hours of heated discussion between the leaders of Germany’s 16 Länder at an emergency meeting over what steps Germany’s biggest economy should be taking, after the number of people with coronavirus rose to 2695 and the number of dead, rose to six.

Many Germans were glued to livestreams of the press conference, expecting and hoping to hear some decisive measures, such as the closure of schools and kindergartens across the country. What they got was a sense of urgency which we have not heard up until now. In short, the meeting’s participants concluded that Germany is now in crisis mode, with a plan to be unrolled with immediate effect to restructure the country’s hospitals in order to boost the number of intensive care beds (currently there are 28,000 of them, 25,000 of which are equipped with respiratory apparatus). All non-urgent operations are to be postponed. The state will offer financial help to the health insurance companies to ensure this happens, Merkel said.

She appealed to Germans to restrict social contact as much as possible. She also advised on the cancellation of all gatherings which are not strictly necessary. She said the next “4, 5 weeks” would be “very very crucial in determining the question as to what happens next”.

Markus Söder, premier of Bavaria and the leader of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria, admitted that the situation was “far more dramatic than we had thought even one or two weeks ago”. He said that the government’s quick introduction of so-called ‘Kurzarbeit’ - or work reduction policies introduced at the height of the banking crisis, which ensure workers receive their wages, and see employers compensated by the state “send an important signal to German businesses”. He coined a phrase used by Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank at the height of the Euro crisis, “we will do whatever it takes”.

Although many Germans had hoped or expected they might do, the leaders did not decide on:

- a universal policy on closing schools, kindergartens and universities, although Söder did announce this evening that Bavaria (which currently has 500 people with coronavirus, and one death) will do so from tomorrow, becoming the first state to do so.

- Neither did it decide on the closure of German borders (though it will control them including checking temperatures).

- Neither did it decide to stop flights to and from Italy.

 

[HAL9000]

Audio, jump to 12 minute 46 seconds,

How they managed to check large number of people and what they're doing to prepare for the summer. More beds and more intensive care respirators, in case there's another virus peak in the summer.

The Inquiry - How China turned the tide with coronavirus - BBC Sounds

China’s infection rate for coronavirus has dropped dramatically. What did they do?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Supine]

It's not available now. I want to understand their thinking.

Here you go ish

UK government's coronavirus advice – and why it gave it

The action plan’s recommendations differed significantly from measures imposed in other countries

www.theguardian.com

 

[sihhi]

Why would it be British travellers, and not travellers from other European counties with far more cases?

Or -"Coronavirus cases in Greece tripled in recent days when travelers who had returned from a pilgrimage to Israel and Egypt were detected with the virus. Among them, a 65-year-old man battling pneumonia in a hospital isolation unit in the western port city of Patras." SOURCE

Why is a google search not coming up with anything to suggest that it is British travellers? Where have you got this from, twitter?

Greek tweets yes, there is 1 British confirmed, the other 4 were friends suspected but negative.
There are 119 official cases now with 10 of unknown origin.
Greece itself has now imported to India, so there are more cases floating around there.
The spread of the pandemic ultimately does boil down to international passenger travel.

 

[elbows]

Not only are the USAs number of confirmed cases subject to extra uncertainty due to their testing problems, but judging by yesterdays King County update (location of care home cluster), some of the published death information is rather laggy too.

The four deaths being reported today were all among previously reported cases. These additional deaths include:

• A woman in her 90s, Life Care Center resident, died on 3/3.
• A man in his 90s, Life Care Center resident, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth, died on 3/5.
• A woman in her 60s, Life Care Center resident, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth, died on 3/9.
• A woman in her 90s, a resident of Redmond Care and Rehab, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth, died on 3/10.

Update: New state and local Orders issued to protect residents’ health from COVID-19 - King County

www.kingcounty.gov

 

[sihhi]

I'd just rather avoid unverified accounts being posted on this thread. There's another thread for that sort of thing, I think elbows intended this to be more grounded in reason and science, which I'm ok with even if it means we're a day or two behind the doom mongers on other threads

Here's some more Italian doctors saying exactly the same thing

'Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

I'm just back from Italy and "enjoying" my first day of self-isolation. Getting a real picture of how bad the situation is, especially in Lombardy and the north, has been really difficult for TV news because movement is so restricted, access to the overwhelmed hospitals impossible and the...

www.itv.com

If you're over 60 there's no intubation anymore because the equipment's not there.

 

[sihhi]

I suppose its also possible that they are dragging their heels in regards mass gatherings because they'd rather those were cancelled by other means than central government decree. eg local decisions, or organisations own risk assessments. Or in the case of many sports, if I were them I would be assuming that most of those sports will eventually end up cancelled anyway, because as soon as participants in the sports teams themselves start falling ill, leagues etc quickly become unviable to continue.

Organisations simply defer to central government decisions or Public Health England.

By the time participants start falling ill, as in Italy, it's already too late, the spread has already been magnified, I, for one don't understand the logic or the modelling, which conveniently is never actually shown.

 

[sihhi]

Schools and universities shut in Turkey for two weeks. And only one confirmed case.

Civil servants banned from travel abroad for whatever reason.

Teachers not allowed to leave their cities and should stay at home (not sure how it will be policed)

All creches and kindergartens shut too.

Water bills will not be collected for the next 2 months.

 

[sihhi]

Arsenal coach Mikel Arteta is another confirmed.

 

[existentialist]

Wales 6/373.

These are beginning to look suspiciously like cricket scores.

Disclaimer: I know nearly as much about cricket as I do about football, and competitive barbed-wire crochet.

 

[miss direct]

Civil servants banned from travel abroad for whatever reason.
Teachers not allowed to leave their cities and should stay at home (not sure how it will be policed)
All creches and kindergartens shut too.
Water bills will not be collected for the next 2 months.

Quite a few differences there from what I’d heard about. No water bills from anyone? Like, it’s free? Or we just pay in two months?

The rest of it sounds like post coup stuff. Glad I don’t work for the state anymore.

 

[Yossarian]

Health officials in Ohio estimate there are now 100,000 infections in that state alone.

Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus

A top health official in Ohio estimated on Thursday that more than 100,000 people in the state have coronavirus, a shockingly high number that underscores the limited testing so far.Ohio …

thehill.com

 

[two sheds]

These are beginning to look suspiciously like cricket scores.

Disclaimer: I know nearly as much about cricket as I do about football, and competitive barbed-wire crochet.

Not English cricket scores they don't.

 

[Fez909]

Fuck

Satellite images show Iran has built mass graves amid coronavirus outbreak

Trenches in city of Qom confirm worst fears about extent of the epidemic and the government’s subsequent cover-up

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

Regarding the whole 'its all about the science' stuff that came up here earlier, I was reminded of the topic when I just read this in a European Centre for Disease Control document about social distancing measures.

Public health authorities should also recognise that extra-scientific factors (e.g. feasibility of implementing scientific advice, time pressure, socio-political factors, institutional factors, economic interests, pressure from neighbouring countries) are inherent to the decision-making process. These factors will also influence the implementation of any proposed response measures [1, 5]. Decisions should therefore always be evidence-informed, but they will very rarely be purely evidence-based.

Considerations relating to social distancing measures in response to COVID-19 – second update

This document aims to support public health preparedness planning and response activities based upon social distancing measures aimed at minimising the spread of COVID-19. Available in 26 languages.

www.ecdc.europa.eu

Plenty else worthy of discussion in that document, but I havent worked out which thread is best for that right now.

 

[bendeus]

Here's some more Italian doctors saying exactly the same thing

'Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

I'm just back from Italy and "enjoying" my first day of self-isolation. Getting a real picture of how bad the situation is, especially in Lombardy and the north, has been really difficult for TV news because movement is so restricted, access to the overwhelmed hospitals impossible and the...

www.itv.com

If you're over 60 there's no intubation anymore because the equipment's not there.

What seems particularly frightening about the article is the anecdotal reporting of the number of young people with no comorbidities in ICU. Is this an anomaly compared to other countries or is it consistent, i.e. lots of young people have caught it and a predictable (but low) % of that total will present with severe respiratory difficulties and require intubation?

 

[prunus]

What seems particularly frightening about the article is the anecdotal reporting of the number of young people with no comorbidities in ICU. Is this an anomaly compared to other countries or is it consistent, i.e. lots of young people have caught it and a predictable (but low) % of that total will present with severe respiratory difficulties and require intubation?

it is the latter. It’s a very low percentage, less than 0.1% I believe from the data I’ve been looking at (somewhat extrapolated I admit, and probably out of date), but complications will develop in some young otherwise healthy people. Whether it’s pure chance or there is some systematic reason we won’t know for a long time I shouldn’t think.

disclaimer: the above is my own work/thinking and not a repeat of anything officially published by anyone.

 

[Barking_Mad]

it is the latter. It’s a very low percentage, less than 0.1% I believe from the data I’ve been looking at (somewhat extrapolated I admit, and probably out of date), but complications will develop in some young otherwise healthy people. Whether it’s pure chance or there is some systematic reason we won’t know for a long time I shouldn’t think.

disclaimer: the above is my own work/thinking and not a repeat of anything officially published by anyone.

Agreed. Statistically some younger people will also die, so whilst it's very sad it's worth repeating that the numbers are likely to be very small in comparison, and not worth getting overly concerned about.

 

[sihhi]

What seems particularly frightening about the article is the anecdotal reporting of the number of young people with no comorbidities in ICU. Is this an anomaly compared to other countries or is it consistent, i.e. lots of young people have caught it and a predictable (but low) % of that total will present with severe respiratory difficulties and require intubation?

I think it's consistent, in Wuhan there was families 30 or 40 year old couples plus a set of in laws dying.

Twitter has a churchyard in Bergamo being used as a pile up dead body bags.

BFM Paris reports that 56 healthcare workers in Paris have tested positive.

Already signs of the NHS unable to cope

Covid-19 patient not kept in isolation: Whistleblower exposes hospital failings

A HOSPITAL patient who has coronavirus was moved onto a ward of critically ill patients before being tested, the Gazette can reveal.

www.basingstokegazette.co.uk

They said: “There were four other helpless people stuck in the same bay. Moving infected patients around is a death sentence.
“The other people on the ward didn’t know what was going on. They have the right to know that they were being kept on a ward with someone who tested positive for coronavirus but the information was being withheld from them by the Trust.”

“It is ridiculous that there are people in hazmat suits outside the front of the hospital testing people for coronavirus while nurses actually treating infected people with the disease aren’t being given any protective clothing at all.
“There is no continuity in the Trust. How can we deliver a gold standard service of care if we are not properly protected ourselves?”
They added: “We have asked and pleaded for protective clothes and we were told, ‘no, it will scare the visitors and patients’.”

More generally healthcare workers as vectors is almost certain as in Italy and in France:

The healthcare worker criticised Public Health England for changing its guidelines on medics who come into contact with coronavirus patients.
Yesterday, the authority altered its rules to allow members of staff who have been exposed to patients with Covid-19 to be able to return to work as long as they don’t show symptoms.
“It is totally counter-productive and will only aid in spreading the disease,” the worker said. “This is why numbers are increasing dramatically.”

 

[sihhi]

it is the latter. It’s a very low percentage, less than 0.1% I believe from the data I’ve been looking at (somewhat extrapolated I admit, and probably out of date), but complications will develop in some young otherwise healthy people. Whether it’s pure chance or there is some systematic reason we won’t know for a long time I shouldn’t think.

disclaimer: the above is my own work/thinking and not a repeat of anything officially published by anyone.

Their fatality rate is 0.4% according to the study of cases from China, so ICU rate must be higher!

 

[QueenOfGoths]

Czech Republic are closing their borders

 

[two sheds]

“It is ridiculous that there are people in hazmat suits outside the front of the hospital testing people for coronavirus while nurses actually treating infected people with the disease aren’t being given any protective clothing at all.
...

Jesus - what happened to Duty of Care? You'd imagine there'll be a few court cases against Trusts from nurses when this is over

 

[prunus]

Their fatality rate is 0.4% according to the study of cases from China, so ICU rate must be higher!

That figure was published for 40-50 year olds by one study I believe; I should have been clearer I was referring to under 40s as young, where death rate tapers down from 0.2%

Also we were talking about young people without comorbidities - my assumption was that the majority of the fatalities in the younger groups will be people with comorbidities - high blood pressure, diabetes, immunosuppressed and so on.

I also tried to make adjustment for the higher frequency of supposed asymptomatic (or effectively asymptomatic) cases in young people, which I admit is a bit finger in the wind...

I did caveat it though!

I suspect that our government must be doing similar analyses, hopefully with access to better data that I do! Otherwise if they’re expecting 0.2% mortality in 20 to 40 years olds (there are about 20m of them) even at 40% best case morbidity (which I think we all know is unlikely) we’re talking 16,000 deaths of basically people’s kids, young parents of young children; the hearts of families will be torn out, the country will be heartbroken, not even counting all the greater numbers of older deaths. It’d be 4x all the military and civilian deaths of any age in all the wars since WW2, just in this age group.

 

[bendeus]

That figure was published for 40-50 year olds by one study I believe; I should have been clearer I was referring to under 40s as young, where death rate tapers down from 0.2%

Also we were talking about young people without comorbidities - my assumption was that the majority of the fatalities in the younger groups will be people with comorbidities - high blood pressure, diabetes, immunosuppressed and so on.

I also tried to make adjustment for the higher frequency of supposed asymptomatic (or effectively asymptomatic) cases in young people, which I admit is a bit finger in the wind...

I did caveat it though!

I suspect that our government must be doing similar analyses, hopefully with access to better data that I do! Otherwise if they’re expecting 0.2% mortality in 20 to 40 years olds (there are about 20m of them) even at 40% best case morbidity (which I think we all know is unlikely) we’re talking 16,000 deaths of basically people’s kids, young parents of young children; the hearts of families will be torn out, the country will be heartbroken, not even counting all the greater numbers of older deaths. It’d be 4x all the military and civilian deaths of any age in all the wars since WW2, just in this age group.

It kind of feels that even best case scenario at the conservative end of the scale is telling us that few of us will be untouched by this, whether it be ourselves, friends or family: we're all likely to either be or to know someone who doesn't make it.

 

[MrCurry]

The Johns Hopkins tracker appears to be a bit broken today. Italy, Iran and Germany missing. Maybe others too

 

[sihhi]

That figure was published for 40-50 year olds by one study I believe; I should have been clearer I was referring to under 40s as young, where death rate tapers down from 0.2%

Also we were talking about young people without comorbidities - my assumption was that the majority of the fatalities in the younger groups will be people with comorbidities - high blood pressure, diabetes, immunosuppressed and so on.

I also tried to make adjustment for the higher frequency of supposed asymptomatic (or effectively asymptomatic) cases in young people, which I admit is a bit finger in the wind...

I did caveat it though!

I suspect that our government must be doing similar analyses, hopefully with access to better data that I do! Otherwise if they’re expecting 0.2% mortality in 20 to 40 years olds (there are about 20m of them) even at 40% best case morbidity (which I think we all know is unlikely) we’re talking 16,000 deaths of basically people’s kids, young parents of young children; the hearts of families will be torn out, the country will be heartbroken, not even counting all the greater numbers of older deaths. It’d be 4x all the military and civilian deaths of any age in all the wars since WW2, just in this age group.

It's interesting that this data is just not available, I suspect they are playing with equations.
Hearts of families, even whole families, were torn out in Hubei province.

 

[sihhi]

Czech Republic are closing their borders

A positive contribution to reducing cross-infection from unnecessary passenger transport.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

 

[prunus]

It's interesting that this data is just not available, I suspect they are playing with equations.
Hearts of families, even whole families, were torn out in Hubei province.

Yes, it must be out there somewhere, I’d love to get my hands on individual case data, so I could do a proper multivariate analysis of comorbidities etc as I’ve not seen one done yet, which surprises me.

 

[sihhi]

Ukraine has banned entry to all non-citizens.