Thora
Differently Ethical
I don’t understand either then. Who are the carers? Where are the children going?
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- Thread starter weltweit
- Start date
Supine
Newt Member
Cochrane have started pumping out geek level analysis of medical research related to Covid-19.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
As I calculate it now the numbers from Italy deemed critical (needing ICU) are doubling every 2.5-3 days.
weltweit I think the whole response has been market-led and weak. If the market can't sustain flights then, the problem is consumers' choices are at a 4 week lag to the spread of the virus.
Right now the country is wasting valuable time, continuing to import cases as it exports them elsewhere.
The issue was people who do adult care and hospital workers what would happen if there were -school closures.
I suggested as with the experience of Evacuation in 1939-1940 volunteers could take in the children of those key workers so they would not worry about childcare at all regardless of whether schools were closed or not, and infection from these workers -> children -> schoolmates -> other adults could be avoided.
weltweit I think the whole response has been market-led and weak. If the market can't sustain flights then, the problem is consumers' choices are at a 4 week lag to the spread of the virus.
Right now the country is wasting valuable time, continuing to import cases as it exports them elsewhere.
The issue was people who do adult care and hospital workers what would happen if there were -school closures.
I suggested as with the experience of Evacuation in 1939-1940 volunteers could take in the children of those key workers so they would not worry about childcare at all regardless of whether schools were closed or not, and infection from these workers -> children -> schoolmates -> other adults could be avoided.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Which parents do you mean? Hospital workers or carers?
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I tend to agree about the weak response. The contact tracing is good and the testing is good but more cases are arriving at our airports every day.
Hubei restricted travel, in and out, I don't understand why the UK isn't considering this.
Even Italy as I understand it have locked down the north. Perhaps we are waiting to get to that level? Why wait?
Thora
Differently Ethical
Well, any parents really. But do you really think it is realistic for hospital workers to send their children to live with volunteers to enable them to go to work?
elbows
Well-Known Member
For me it indicates either that we should wait and see the picture develop in some other countries, or we should stop labelling so many things as panic and start calling some of them the necessary response.
Because either there is something missing or bogus about Chinas numbers, in which case we need to see other countries data, or something unexplained happened and we should see if that is repeated elsewhere, or Chinas extreme measures are the only reason the graph looks like that in which case we will need our own versions of the same extremes.
Yossarian
⏭️
I think he makes some good points - especially about getting the flu shot - but he does seem to have been downplaying things quite a bit, and expressing a degree of confidence in health authorities in the US and Canada that now seems unfounded, at least for the US.
Same guy on Feb 1:
On Feb. 16:
"Stay calm" is obviously a good message to send, but public policy in the Toronto area, where this doctor works, might have gone a little too far in focusing on it above any other concerns - school boards have strictly banned teachers, students, and other school employees from wearing masks because they don't want to make anybody feel nervous.
bimble
floofy
I think there is a big element of panic but also its only gone down like that in your graph because of the measures that China took isn't it. Lock downs, instant massive hospitals etc. Which we are absolutely not doing.
From - extremely small - sample of people round here that I've talked to none are taking it seriously, not taking any precautions not even washing hands more than usual, because they think its all overblown the media etc (even though we've got a few confirmed cases in the county). So if thats typical is a bit worrying.
But the main thing far as I understand it (medical not societal) isn't the death rate its that if the infection curve is sharp and then say even 5% of the people who get infected will need real care from the NHS (intensive care beds) all at once then the system will get totally overwhelmed & properly dysfunctional so people will die, of this or of whatever else that there'll be no space and staff to help with.
If we could slow things down so the peak isn't so high but longer and lower it would be more or less 'fine' but don't see any measures in place to do that as yet.
Noticed in Tescos today that I am worried, was trying to not touch face the whole time but even then i did touch it loads, whilst pushing round the trolley, after touchscreen check out.
Supine
Newt Member
I'd say it shows China has done a great job and the Chinese people have worked with the government and their own communities to improve things massively. It at least gets them out of the health care system swamped scenario (hopefully).
Covid has started spreading though and China will probably see the numbers go back up as their industry gets back to work. The west should still be worried as shutting down cities isn't something we've done before as far as I know.
andysays
Love and solidarity
I don't think it is something which people would generally accept.
But I also think we have a serious problem if we simply accept the idea that we can't consider doing anything about the transmission risks that keeping all schools fully open poses, because some of the parents work in hospitals and other vital services, and some of those parents would find it difficult to make alternative childcare arrangements if their children weren't going to school.
It means that the virus will spread faster and further, and we reach much sooner the point at which significant numbers of those health workers/parents won't be able to work because they've caught the virus off their kids who have caught it off their school mates, rather than because they're taking time off to look after their kids.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Hubei restricted travel within aswell, every single region in China restricted travel to a greater or lesser degree.
The answer is because people in charge believe in market responses and laissez faire, the Grenfell Tower approach.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Plus one of the reasons school closures are thought to be one of the more effective tools during an epidemic is precisely because it also stops a whole bunch of adults going about their normal work etc.
I suppose ideally what they would do is try to get the benefits of school closures whilst also trying to mitigate somewhat against the impact on frontline essential healthcare workers and some others that are considered essential. I'm not sure they have a brilliant plan to achieve that.
I suspect they wont even be aiming to achieve the sort of reductions that Chinas numbers show anyway. They would like a less dramatic version in every sense, including how dramatic the situation is in local hospitals before this stage is kicked into action. So with that in mind a big question is how much difference various policies that lead to social distancing, but not to the extreme extent achieved in China, will make to the virus.
I suppose ideally what they would do is try to get the benefits of school closures whilst also trying to mitigate somewhat against the impact on frontline essential healthcare workers and some others that are considered essential. I'm not sure they have a brilliant plan to achieve that.
I suspect they wont even be aiming to achieve the sort of reductions that Chinas numbers show anyway. They would like a less dramatic version in every sense, including how dramatic the situation is in local hospitals before this stage is kicked into action. So with that in mind a big question is how much difference various policies that lead to social distancing, but not to the extreme extent achieved in China, will make to the virus.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
If both halves of a couple are hospital workers, definitely, the volunteer can be a friend, sibling or relative.
Over 3 million were evacuated during the war in three waves.
Of course now it would be open to men aswell.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
In Hubei:
Most were in requisitioned quarters - usually technical colleges, university dorms fortunately because it was New Year holiday most students had already left.
Those that had no family members or wanted to stay with their families regardless were transported back and forth by volunteer car drivers.
Some army healthcare workers slept in makeshift accomodation insulated tents, some were kept on a cruiser that had been specifically sent up the Yangtze.
Not sure about other less effected provinces.
Thora
Differently Ethical
I'm sure if schools are shut, any worker who is able to send their children to a friend or relative will.
However, no one will send their child to live with a stranger.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Why not? This is exactly what happened during the war if you had no family members in the countryside/Canada.
Thora
Differently Ethical
Do you have children? Would you send them to live with a stranger?
It's not the 1940s, and even then during an actual war less than half of children were evacuated. We understand a lot more about child abuse now, parents aren't even allowed to go on school trips without DBS checks. Parents are cautious about their children going on Cub camps or having sleepovers with school friends. There is no chance people would be happy for their children to stay with strangers, especially people who have volunteered rather than paid, qualified, checked childminders or foster carers.
scifisam
feck! arse! girls! drink!
I think forcing care workers and health professionals to send their kids away to live with "volunteers" (and where would we get them?) for an unspecified amount of time would, er, simply not happen. Yeah, we're gonna take your kids away and send them to strangers, so that you can continue to go to work in a high risk and often low-paid job. Rrright.
And shipping a hundred thousand or more kids around the country wouldn't be bad for quarantine scenarios at all. It's not the blitz; bombs are infectious. (And 3 and a half million kids weren't evacuated during the blitz; either; that'd be around a third of children in the UK at the time).
Schools being closed certainly is one of the potential routes to take, but when, where and why is the complicated question. All of them, now, after a single death, with most areas having no known positive tests, is likely to cause more problems than it solves.
Child protection nightmare.
lazythursday
Well-Known Member
Surely it's not beyond the realms of possibility to close most schools but keep one school open in an area to cater for kids of key workers? Or something similar. Most would be able to stay with one of their friends anyway surely?
Yossarian
⏭️
I wouldn't trust any numbers or any other information provided by the Chinese government, but in Hong Kong, which is (for now) probably a little more reliable, the figures seem similar - Hong Kong had some early infections and only closed the border very belatedly, but after school closures, etc., they now have fewer cases than Norway.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
It wasn't forced in China, doesn't need to be forced. They don't need to shipped around the country, why on earth would they? They could just aswell go across the street, providing there was someone willing and able to look after them.
phillm
Trolling through Life (TM)
Since protecting the old and vulnerable is key with this pandemic would have thought that clear messaging that they should hunker down should go out like now. My 30k redeployed Brexit civil servants would be assigned regionally to look at pension payments and other data, identify claimants and determine need. If they have families that can buy food online keep them supported then fine. Others would be contacted and supported as necessary. Local volunteers could be drafted in as well. Will it happen I doubt it.
