Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
There's a surprise
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
My son's had a letter inviting him for a jab. He doesn't want one because bullshit reason after bullshit reason.
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
It's not just you.
Yes, the poor messaging has struck me as well. And LFTs (while potentially a useful tool) have sown a lot of confusion.
Example from my work again: A couple of my colleagues told me that they had taken LFTs on Tuesday evening after finding out that our colleague who had been in that day had had a positive LFT test, and were greatly relieved that theirs was negative. Surely that doesn't mean shit? I mean it's highly unlikely if not impossible to test positive on a LFT 5 hours after exposure?
Yet there is the other confusing message of taking a PCR test as soon as possible after being notified of a contact instead of quarantine.
Now I guess that the timeframe of that is somewhat different, because by the time the person had their test back some time after developing symptoms sometime after hanging out with you and informed you, it could be 3-5 days or whatever after contact, and with the PCR being more sensitive, would be more likely to show a reliable result.
But wasn't the whole point of quarantining for (initially 14) 10 days because it could take a while for the infection to take hold..? Otherwise we could have been "testing to release" on day 4 all this time? Now this might have changed somewhat with delta, where time from exposure to infection and infectiousness might be quicker.
But anyway, point is: I am sure the message - "just take a test as soon as possible after potential exposure" is very confusing to people, and unless you are a major covid geek you are unlikely to be able to make an informed decision - even I feel somewhat flummoxed now.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
2hats
Dust.
Just to underline this...
Media today have got a little distracted by an Oxford/ONS study preprint, concentrating on the slow drop in immunity to infection due to delta over time (not disease - the study investigated symptomatic infection) and how this might make a case for a third dose booster.
But this is to be expected. It's what a healthy immune system does - gradually throttles back circulating antibodies as the antigen is removed from your body. You don't want your body held in a constantly heightened inflammatory state; that way lie immune problems. Circulating antibodies from a third dose booster will also wane if your immune system is in correct working order.
The really important observation from that study, which should inform vaccination programmes moving forward, is that heterologous exposure to antigens at longer intervals produces better sustained, more potent, broader protection, in particular to new, emerging VOCs:
See hybrid immunity and heterologous immunisation in the vaccines thread (eg post #1359 and subsequent posts).
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
Yeah, his mum's on it. Not as much as I'd be but that's probably a good thing.
A colleague has Covid and two people he works with have been sent home despite having no symptoms. That's not the new guidelines is it. I don't think anyone at college fully knows them. Nobody has told me. "It's down to individual choice" is the line now
2hats
Dust.
English hospital admission numbers are already back to levels seen during the July peak.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Had to really peck my lads head about this. Was too busy etc , However every text he sent and every phone call , we speak once a week, I kept on to him about it. His steo sister got covid and some of his mates so that and hopefully me might have nudged him. Hes had the first now so I think he will get the second.
elbows
Well-Known Member
No surprises here:
www.theguardian.com
9,000 Covid cases linked to Euro 2020 games in mass events scheme
Study paper says England’s progress to final ‘generated a significant risk to public health across the UK’
elbows
Well-Known Member
Reporting on this is still largely shit or non-existent.
Northern Ireland has come back onto the BBCs radar at least.
Covid-19: NI records highest number of cases in a single day
Another 2,397 cases are reported, as doctors warn hospital staff are struggling to meet demand.
www.bbc.co.uk
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
No surprises here:
9,000 Covid cases linked to Euro 2020 games in mass events scheme
Study paper says England’s progress to final ‘generated a significant risk to public health across the UK’
That case load increase was an absolute certainty ..., and I suspect 9,000 cases is actually way under the real figures ...
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah I wouldnt never treat such numbers as the whole story, they are just an indication of a larger problem, aspects of which are not captured by these evaluations. Its the same with a lot of studies, for example studies into numbers of people who caught the virus in hospital freely admit that they arent detecting the whole picture. For example those werent generally setup to count people who showed symptoms or tested positive only after being discharged from hospital. And we dont generally include the full chain of infection that results from such spread in any of the numbers.
As far as the mass events evaluation programme, its conclusions from the earlier stages were of extremely limited use due to low viral prevalence at the time. These sorts of evaluations are quite sensitive to such things, in much the same way that estimates about effectiveness of vaccines are generally expected to get worse when data comes in from the most challenging periods where there is a lot of infection about so much more weight for vaccines to carry. I could claim a football event seemed safe if I carried it out when there werent many infections in the community, but the real test is holding such events in very difficult circumstances when rates in the community were already high, otherwise I just file it under reassuring bullshit.
As far as the mass events evaluation programme, its conclusions from the earlier stages were of extremely limited use due to low viral prevalence at the time. These sorts of evaluations are quite sensitive to such things, in much the same way that estimates about effectiveness of vaccines are generally expected to get worse when data comes in from the most challenging periods where there is a lot of infection about so much more weight for vaccines to carry. I could claim a football event seemed safe if I carried it out when there werent many infections in the community, but the real test is holding such events in very difficult circumstances when rates in the community were already high, otherwise I just file it under reassuring bullshit.
The last coupla months have been the worst of all, afaiac. I knew where I was, all last year (at home) and had tailored my expectations accordingly. This vague open/not open has really left me floundering. We normally have an annual party in the wood which is something we all work towards. Last year, it was definitely off, but this year, it's on, it's off, we are all doing tests but having just come out of a very close COVID scare, the limitations of lateral flow tests have become abundantly clear (the longish gap between exposure until viral load is high enough to register)...and, of course, all the conflicting hopes and expectations of friends and family are, frankly, doing my fucking head in. Covid exhaustion is definitely taking a toll on people around me and I am finding it much, much harder to engage with the world outside of my tiny bubble.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its now been right about a year since some people started to wonder whether the case numbers were showing a meaningful rise. Within a couple of weeks it became clearer that the rise looked meaningful and sustained, and then the whole thing dragged on at such a pace that Johnson was able to delay a suitable response for a very long time indeed.
I was far from the first to start going on about that at the time, I was quite slow to get into that mode. And looking back it seems that we could have started such pondering a whole month earlier than we did, but the numbers were relatively small and there had been a big mainstream narrative and response involving local outbreaks and local lockdowns which distracted from commentary on the national picture.
Back then the level at this stage of August 2020 was around 1100 UK cases per day (7 day average), after a very gradual increase from around 570 at the start of July 2020. This time around our averages are just below 30,000, and the lowest we got in between this wave and the previous one was 1850, although to be fair there is more testing available compared to the start of July 2020.
Anyway nobody really needs me to tell them that this is a terrible starting point should the situation deteriorate in the last part of summer and into autumn like it did last year. Explosive growth from this starting point would create a situation that even this government couldnt ignore for too many months before having to act. But I dont actually know if we will have a return to that sort of explosive growth again in the coming weeks or whether there will continue to be a more gradual increase or another pattern entirely. Scotland may offer clues but its early days for their alarming data and I need to study that a bit more before making any big claims.
I was far from the first to start going on about that at the time, I was quite slow to get into that mode. And looking back it seems that we could have started such pondering a whole month earlier than we did, but the numbers were relatively small and there had been a big mainstream narrative and response involving local outbreaks and local lockdowns which distracted from commentary on the national picture.
Back then the level at this stage of August 2020 was around 1100 UK cases per day (7 day average), after a very gradual increase from around 570 at the start of July 2020. This time around our averages are just below 30,000, and the lowest we got in between this wave and the previous one was 1850, although to be fair there is more testing available compared to the start of July 2020.
Anyway nobody really needs me to tell them that this is a terrible starting point should the situation deteriorate in the last part of summer and into autumn like it did last year. Explosive growth from this starting point would create a situation that even this government couldnt ignore for too many months before having to act. But I dont actually know if we will have a return to that sort of explosive growth again in the coming weeks or whether there will continue to be a more gradual increase or another pattern entirely. Scotland may offer clues but its early days for their alarming data and I need to study that a bit more before making any big claims.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Oh the BBC have done a 'compare now to a year' ago thing just now too.
Contains comments by Professor Hunter about things including endemic equilibrium, comments I will keep in mind but that I would not dream of expressing with such confidence at this stage.
Covid cases: This summer compared with last
Case numbers are 30 times higher than at the same point last year - where might we be heading next?
www.bbc.co.uk
Contains comments by Professor Hunter about things including endemic equilibrium, comments I will keep in mind but that I would not dream of expressing with such confidence at this stage.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Also:
Hugh Pym isnt too bad at describing the situation and grasping its future implications without too much sugarcoating bullshit.
Army supporting ambulance services in England
High demand and staffing shortages have meant the Army has been called in to help look after patients.
www.bbc.co.uk
Hugh Pym isnt too bad at describing the situation and grasping its future implications without too much sugarcoating bullshit.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Also:
Army supporting ambulance services in England
High demand and staffing shortages have meant the Army has been called in to help look after patients.www.bbc.co.uk
Hugh Pym isnt too bad at describing the situation and grasping its future implications without too much sugarcoating bullshit.
South West ambulance called in the army at least a fortnight ago.
There are big light-up signs near the hospitals telling tourists to either ring 111 or go home to their own GPs if unwell. All the hospitals round here were full even before the school holidays started.
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StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Same / similar problem here in the North East ...
However, having skimmed that article - the Army team is only 25 persons and they have been trained to drive the "patient transport" vehicles, not the emergency ambulances.
Army personnel to help North East Ambulance Service
Last month the North East Ambulance Service answered nearly 45,000 calls, the highest in its history.
www.bbc.co.uk
However, having skimmed that article - the Army team is only 25 persons and they have been trained to drive the "patient transport" vehicles, not the emergency ambulances.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I started to look into Scotland a little more. Their latest weekly 'modelling the epidemic in Scotland' report came at an awkward time where the data period it covers doesnt do justice to the more recent increases, and they know it so the report includes plenty of language trying to acknowledge the trend of more recent days.
One of the ways they do this is via their regular section on what the wastewater monitoring indicators look like. I wont be posting the graphs and more detailed wording from that section, instead here is the wastewater summary from earlier in the document:
One of the ways they do this is via their regular section on what the wastewater monitoring indicators look like. I wont be posting the graphs and more detailed wording from that section, instead here is the wastewater summary from earlier in the document:
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Seeing those drops in vaccine effectiveness against the delta variant infections makes me even more convinced that the UK should not have dropped social distancing measures and requiring the wearing of proper masks in crowded places, especially indoors.
It could also explain the continued rises in case numbers ...
I hope "they" are planning to tweak the autumn booster shots for extra protection against the Beta and Delta variants.
It could also explain the continued rises in case numbers ...
I hope "they" are planning to tweak the autumn booster shots for extra protection against the Beta and Delta variants.
Elpenor
a clown’s heart and a mandolin
I’ve started wondering this too. My dad mentioned cases were going up today. I have to admit I’ve switched off from the covid news of late.
While it won’t impact my day to day life much I will have to reschedule or cancel various things I’d planned.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
I can't see it any time soon. The previous lockdowns have been a panicked reaction to hospitalisations and deaths going through the roof and we're a long way from those levels. The 'irreversible' stuff is obviously bullshit but it doesn't suggest there'll be a lower trigger point for this in future does it.
Mation
real life adventure worth more than pieces of gold
Are we that far from lockdown hospitalisation levels? Deaths, yes. Now. But I can't help feeling that winter is coming.
If my potentially faulty memory serves, history suggests that lockdowns are triggered at the point that hospitalisations threaten to rise above something like 1000 per day in the imminent future. I believe that the hospitalisation rate is something like 0.5-1% at the current rate of vaccination? So that would imply that the government won't take serious action unless we get up to something like 100-200,000 cases per day. Unless one of the many things I am trying to remember in that equation is wrong, of course.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
“and god has granted you dominion over the beasts of the Earth and the sea and the sky”
several thousand years later
“Guys this means you can get vaccines stop asking me for help you twats, get the jab”
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