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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

I think we can now say fairly confidently that the infection rate is creeping up again. Since there's nothing in place to change the current trend (though at a stretch better weather might help?) I assume it will continue to creep up until schools go back, at which point it will stop creeping and start shooting up. I was really hoping to feel safer going out in crowded places by the end of this month but it's just not going to happen is it.
 
We have two 17-year-olds, and so we've been dutifully waiting for their vaccine invitations since it was announced they would be extending it to 16-17 year olds. Turns out what that means is you get a photocopied letter from the NHS, telling you to look on their website for nearby walk-in centres. If they'd just said that originally, it could have all been sorted by now. Fucking useless.
 
I think we can now say fairly confidently that the infection rate is creeping up again. Since there's nothing in place to change the current trend (though at a stretch better weather might help?) I assume it will continue to creep up until schools go back, at which point it will stop creeping and start shooting up. I was really hoping to feel safer going out in crowded places by the end of this month but it's just not going to happen is it.

Yeah I dont think the situation is good, although it still remains hard to make clear predictions. I suppose I would expect the poor weather, the return of football and covid falling far down the media agenda to make the situation worse even before the schools return.

Earlier in summer I was framing things as whether the government 'get away with' their chosen approach. I will break that down into a few different elements:

From a media and political opposition standpoint, they totally got away with it, they were able to set the agenda and watch everyone else fall into line. A pattern of compliance that is not unusual for this country. Pingdemic framing worked in their favour, and the official opposition played right along by calling for changes to self-isolation rules to happen even sooner than planned.

They were able to take advantage of the summer window of opportunity to open up, although the Delta wave somewhat curtailed their ambitions in terms of timing.

The relative success of not having cases etc carry on doubling throughout the summer has its limits. Its set the scene for starting autumn from a position of weakness, where only one doubling is required for the shit to hit the fan again, and even before that stage I wait to see when the media notice what is happening with hospitalisations going back up again already.

There is also little doubt that authorities were hoping vaccines would do better at preventing infections and transmission. That the vaccines cannot offer as much of that as hoped against this Delta strain further calls into question the sustainability of the governments current approach. There are plenty of little signs of concern on this front, eg the following from a BBC live updates entry about booster shots:

Earlier, Prof Finn told BBC Breakfast the JCVI would be meeting this morning to discuss the issue.

He said it was "less clear" whether offering a third dose more widely across the population was "going to make very much difference".

He added that the protective effects of vaccines against becoming sick were "excellent".

But he said the ability of the vaccination programme to prevent the virus circulating was "less good than we'd hoped".

That quote is from the 8:55 entry of https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-58266043

With those things in mind, it is still tempting for me to think that the government may have won a few battles but can easily still end up losing the war. And then they will be in deep shit.
 
Meanwhile SAGE continue to advise the government to set clear data trigger points, which would activate contingency plans at a point early enough to cope with a rise in infections before hospitalisation rates become overwhelming.

Such advice has tended to fall on deaf ears so far, probably because agreeing to a sensible system of triggers removes a lot of the political decisions, and the government want to retain the power to make arbitrary decisions at a time of their choosing rather than have actions automatically linked to what the data is showing.

A sensible government that wanted to do the right things at the right time regardless of any political opposition would actually leap at the chance to have automatic triggers. But of course that is not what our current government have in mind at all.

An example of SAGE giving that advice, from a July meeting. Also we are still at the ridiculous stage where the work hasnt even been done to figure out what level of admissions causes what problems for the NHS:

In the event that increasing hospitalisations were likely to put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, this would need to be identified rapidly and contingency plans enacted within days, given the delays between infection and hospitalisation (i.e., because hospitalisations will continue rising for a time even once infections start to fall). Having clear trigger mechanisms for this in place is strongly advised.

ACTION: NHSE and JBC to provide analysis of local and national NHS impacts at different levels of hospital or ICU admissions or occupancy.

 
I wonder when we'll have to get vaccinated again. Last I heard Autumn Boosters were going to be only for the most vulnerable.

Doesn't any immunity only last six months? If there's another peak over new year.... Could be grim
 
Yeah, on vaccinated people and transmission, my pessimism now also comes from looking over at Israel, where they've had to back down from fully opening up: Israel tightens restrictions as Covid-19 cases surge

Yes they are a good example of a sensible response to emerging detail. Something the UK is now infamous for resisting at every opportunity. How long that resistance will continue is hard to judge, although an assumption the UK authorities will push their luck for as long as possible seems reasonable. Once summer silly season in the press is over and the powerful are back at their desks, the situation could change quite quickly, or collective denial may remain stubbornly in place for quite some time - doubling time for infections and hospitalisations will probably get to dictate that pace.
 
I wonder when we'll have to get vaccinated again. Last I heard Autumn Boosters were going to be only for the most vulnerable.
Doesn't any immunity only last six months? If there's another peak over new year.... Could be grim
No immunity last longer, falling off slightly but probably not to lower than a single dose.
 
I wonder when we'll have to get vaccinated again. Last I heard Autumn Boosters were going to be only for the most vulnerable.

Doesn't any immunity only last six months? If there's another peak over new year.... Could be grim

Immunity is complex and the thing we find easiest to measure, antibody levels, are very far from a complete guide. I expect some forms of immunity to last much longer than that, but the chosen approach is still a numbers game which boils down to a question of just how many people become at risk of hospitalisation in future.

Those known to have the weakest immune response to vaccines are probably the biggest target for booster shots. And the oldest who had their vaccines the longest ago.

The decision to have a larger gap between first and second doses in this country is also likely relevant, because in theory it should stand us in better stead than the likes of the USA, in terms of when boosters for a larger group are deemed necessary.

Whatever happens, it is sensible to expect trouble during winter. And since the peak seen in July does not look like it is certain to have been the ultimate maximum of the current wave, I have other peaks in mind long before a winter peak.
 
Victor Racaniello is seriously annoyed about the autumn boosters - concurring with the WHO that those doses would be far better deployed for the unvaccinated.

 
Question - What is the current policy on people going into work with "cold symptoms" (if indeed there is one)?

Last year, unhelpfully, the ridiculous idea was floated of "having to learn to distinguish between covid and a cold" - as if anything but a PCR test could actually make that distinction - ; and I have been hearing loads of people self-diagnose in that manner.
Compounded now by the fact that the symptoms of the delta variant, especially in the fully vaccinated, are different from the classic top 3 symptoms. The Zoe app lists the top 5 as headache, runny nose, sneezing, sore throat, loss of smell. Yet, afaiu, only the "old top 3" qualify you officially for a PCR test; people with other symptoms are encouraged to take lateral flow tests and only do a confirmatory PCR when a LFT comes up positive. Is that right?

We just had a case at work of someone coming in with "a bit of a cold" on Tuesday following a negative LFT, only for them to test positive on the LFT the following day.
I wouldn't count as a close contact under the very narrow definitions of T&T, but knowing what we know about transmissability, and the time she and I both spent in the same unventilated space, I can't rule out that I could have caught it. Also, I am double-vaccinated, so wouldn't have to properly quarantine even if I was counted as a close contact. But as someone who doesn't want to spread covid around and who thinks that the guidelines around this are a crock of shit, this is still seriously impacting my week. Had to cancel a couple of appointments in my self-employed work, won't be seeing my boyfriend this weekend, and am cancelling meeting my friend tonight.

I am pissed off that that colleague came in, but at the same time recognize that she probably did everything "right".
However, having a quick google just now I hit on this from Gloucestershire County Council from July this year

"If your PCR test result is negative but you still have symptoms, you may have another virus such as a cold or flu. You should stay at home until you feel well [my bold]. Seek medical attention if you are concerned about your symptoms.

You can stop isolating as long as:

  • you are well;
  • no-one else in your household has symptoms or has tested positive for COVID-19; and / or
  • you have not been advised to self-isolate by NHS Test and Trace.
Anyone in your household who is isolating because of your symptoms can also stop isolating."

That seems to say that people with cold symptoms should stay at home until they are well, even if a test is negative? Of course, it might only be talking about about people with the old classic 3 symptoms because people with the main delta symptoms 'shouldn't' get a PCR test in the first place...aaarrrgh!

Basically, I am looking for something that I can show to my work, and say, look, can we not have people coming in with "just colds" all autumn and winter, but instead encourage them to stay at home for a few days no matter what kind of cold. But I guess that's not going to happen, is it. :(

Don't like the recent findings just how high the viral load of delta can be in vaccinated infected people. It's going to be - it already is - pretty shit and pretty limiting for people who want to not encourage spread and who want to protect more vulnerable friends and family if the current strategy continues. :/
 
Will depend on your workplace?

I have come across so many people with just a cold that's turned out to be covid. Some of it is the symptoms being wider, some of it is people in denial, some is people stuck in habits (personal and work related), and then also the concerns people have that being off sick means they won't get paid or might get in trouble etc.

Personally I think nobody should be going to work with a cold in the current situation.
 
It drives me nuts, and 'its just a cold' assumptions are on the rise again for sure.

Sensible authorities would do something about this, but instead they just pay lip service to the idea of not going to work when sick, because they dont actually want everyone who is sick to stay at home because of the disruption and staffing issues this causes.

I dont have any useful advice, other than to keep making a noise about these sorts of issues at work, so long as you can get away with that without risking your job. Ideally people would make such a stink about these issues that it become easier for workplace authorities to address it properly rather than trying to ignore it.

More broadly one of the things being looked at with a view to this coming autumn and winter is multiplex tests where a whole range of viruses are tested for at the same time. But I dont know how successful trials of such tests will be, or the extent to which authorities intend to use them. eg they will certainly want to use such things on people being admitted to hospital, but whether they will also make such things a part of routine population testing I cannot say. If they can do it on massive scale then some sensible options are unlocked, but I'll just have to wait and see whether we get anywhere close to that.
 
Yeah, it's driving me nuts too. As far as I'm concerned if you have 'cold' symptoms at the moment you should get a PCR test. Instead we're in a situation where people with actual coughs are testing themselves with LFTs and think that's enough. At an event I was running the other day we had to stop someone who was on her way to the event as that was what she had done. We had to tell her to stay home and get a PCR because she had a cough. Not sure why anyone needs telling that at this point but it certainly feels like there has been a massive failure of communication by the government, both on what covid can look like and what the different tests are used for. If one more person tells me 'I had some covidy symptoms but I took an LFT and it was negative so it wasn't covid' I think I might scream.
 
Yeah, it's driving me nuts too. As far as I'm concerned if you have 'cold' symptoms at the moment you should get a PCR test. Instead we're in a situation where people with actual coughs are testing themselves with LFTs and think that's enough. At an event I was running the other day we had to stop someone who was on her way to the event as that was what she had done. We had to tell her to stay home and get a PCR because she had a cough. Not sure why anyone needs telling that at this point but it certainly feels like there has been a massive failure of communication by the government, both on what covid can look like and what the different tests are used for. If one more person tells me 'I had some covidy symptoms but I took an LFT and it was negative so it wasn't covid' I think I might scream.
interesting, must admit at this stage i wouldn't have thought to do that with a cough - though last year when LFTs weren't available i wouldve gone PCR for sure
 
Just remembered, the other day I took a photo of a rare thing; an establishment actually paying some attention to ventilation instead of just getting everyone to do hand sanitiser and then sit next to one another in a sealed box.

Two doors fully open, with a big fan running in one of them.

Screenshot 2021-08-19 at 15.19.31.jpg
 
Hurrah! Yes, I prefer to give my custom to places that space and ventilate... I don't give a toss about how you clean surfaces, just have the fecking doors and windows open.

These next few months are definitely going up test the government's resolve on 'no more lockdowns' that's for sure. I think we're definitely and unsurprisingly seeing an infection uplift from 19 July now, and as others have said, it's going to become rocket powered once kids are in school. As a household we have avoided it so far, I suspect it'll be our turn in the next 2-3 months.
 
Broke my personal rule about staying home as much as possible today. Third time in two weeks [the previous trips were with OH to hospital for an ultrasound (also took biopsies) and to a family funeral (OH's uncle who died from a severe stroke)]

So, OH and I took a short tour - covering a number of things in one trip. The two short meetings we had were with everybody masked up and socially distanced (one effectively outside, as well).
Plenty masks / sanitiser and open doors in evidence, but we also detoured to avoid a couple of local areas with increased case rates. Washed hands etc when we got back.

I am still very nervous about such trips ...
 
Partially return driven, but doubtless also partly due to an increase in testing in the lead up to returning to school (starting to reveal something closer to the true level of signal in the community).
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I wonder when we'll have to get vaccinated again. Last I heard Autumn Boosters were going to be only for the most vulnerable.
Would appear the JCVI still aren't entirely convinced yet.
Doesn't any immunity only last six months?
Immunity to what precisely? All evidence thus far points to immunity from severe disease lasting a year, perhaps even several years, for the majority of vaccinees.
 
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