Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[wemakeyousoundb]

They would be very comfortable with 80 deaths a week, trouble is it's around that per day ATM, getting on for 30,000 a year.

ooopss
being a qualified bean counter I should always double check what I add up
but I suspect even 30000 a year is something they can live with

 

[Teaboy]

ooopss
being a qualified bean counter I should always double check what I add up
but I suspect even 30000 a year is something they can live with

Especially if a high enough percentage are unvaccinated regardless of the reason why.

 

[glitch hiker]

Mask wearing has certainly declined, if my experience shopping today was any indicator. Such it was that I felt very self conscious wearing mine. Can't say I'm surprised though. This is just what the government wants.

However according to Professor Christina Pagel the trend is starting to go up again. I'm not sure I see that, or perhaps I've misread what she said. This is before the schools return as well which will be the real test I supppose.

It is weird how everything is in this particular twilight zone.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Daily reported new cases have been going up slightly since last weekend, the 7-day average reported today is up +8.6%

 

[elbows]

I dont really think about the current level of infections, hospitalisations and deaths as being a level we should expect things to settle at for very long periods of time. So I havent really considered the current levels in the ontext of whether they could live with them if they remained around these levels.

Not that I have much idea exactly what will happen next. But I dont think levels remaining pretty constant for ages is high on my list of possibilities.

Also I dont know what sort of levels of daily hospitalisation the authorities have in mind in terms of coping with this virus in a sustainable way. I'm guessing they need to be lower than the current level because recent admissions seem balanced delicately around the level where number of patients in hospital could still go up rather than remain constant or very slowly decline. And in some locations quite the reconfiguration of NHS resources was required in order to cope. But expereinces will vary quite a bit per NHS trust and there are big chunks of that picture missing from my mind.

Another reason I'm not sure they'd be comfortable with current levels is that there isnt much wiggle room in terms of doubling - I think they would much rather have rates that require multiple doublings before they reach troubling levels, and I dont think I can say that about recent rates at all.

Plus the rates we see at the moment are rates in summer. Authorities likely expect the situation to be worse in other seasons, and I have no desire to see what the winter equivalent of the current situation is.

I found the term endemic equilibrium as an attempt to find a phrase that covers a weaker version of the herd immunity concept, since the original full on herd immunity threshold isnt something plausible to aim for according to some experts. I would not use the phrase to describe the current situation.

 

[elbows]

Take for example the latest hospital admissions for England. If someone told me these would continue to fluctuate around at these sorts of levels for weeks to come, I would not find that implausible. But if someone told me they would remain like this for months and months, I think I would express some surprise.

If we did experience something relatively stable fo a prolonged period then I suspect that when looking at the underlying detail there would be a lot of things in flux that just happened to combine into the same sort of overall picture over time. Because its quite hard to imagine all the key underlying factors remaining constant - rules are still changing, behaviour and contact mixing patterns will be changing with the return of football season, and then schools going back etc. And when it comes to the rule changes I mentioned, changes to self-isolation rules are quite a big change to me on paper, and I just have to wait and see what the actual impact ends up being,

 

[Mation]

Anyone know how Monday's rule changes will affect people currently self-isolating? My quarantine was due to end on Sunday, but then another housemate tested positive and it was extended by a few days.

I'm assuming I'll still have to isolate for the whole period, but if anyone has a link to something definitive, that would be much appreciated. I haven't found anything thus far.

 

[maomao]

Anyone know how Monday's rule changes will affect people currently self-isolating? My quarantine was due to end on Sunday, but then another housemate tested positive and it was extended by a few days.

I'm assuming I'll still have to isolate for the whole period, but if anyone has a link to something definitive, that would be much appreciated. I haven't found anything thus far.

If you're double jabbed you don't have to isolate.

 

[gentlegreen]

From Monday, fully vaccinated adults and anyone under the age of 18 will no longer have to self-isolate if they come into contact with someone who has tested positive for the virus. They will only be required to isolate should they test positive for the virus themselves.

 

[Mation]

But does that also apply to people who are in the middle of an isolation period, ie can I cut it short? I don't think I should, but I want to know if I can, and whether my employer might ask me to come in.

Or are the changes only for anyone who is fully vaccinated and comes into contact with someone on or after Monday?

 

[gentlegreen]

You put your left leg in ...

 

[elbows]

Some hospital infection study of the first wave. I dont think it significantly adds to the picture of this I had built in my mind, and its no surprise that the first wave was the worst in this regard because availability of testing was limited, PPE situation was a mess, and I expet all manner of lessons were learnt in the months after the first wave peaked in the community but rumbled on in terms of hospital infections. And even if all hospitals had followed the same procedures, things like the nature of their buildings layout, ventilation etc probably explains some of the wide difference seen between different hospitals.

Huge gulf in hospitals' ability to contain Covid

Hospital-acquired Covid ranged from 1% to 25% of cases in different hospitals.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[kabbes]

But does that also apply to people who are in the middle of an isolation period, ie can I cut it short? I don't think I should, but I want to know if I can, and whether my employer might ask me to come in.

Or are the changes only for anyone who is fully vaccinated and comes into contact with someone on or after Monday?

I’m not sure I really understand the question, in practical terms. You want to know not what you should do but what is strictly required? I would say that the answer to that always derives from knowing what is being enforced. And the answer is: nobody is enforcing anything for the fully vaccinated. So in terms of strict requirements, your need to isolate must therefore necessarily be over.

 

[two sheds]

And the answer is: nobody is enforcing anything for the fully vaccinated.

Apart from isolating if they have symptoms?

 

[kabbes]

Apart from isolating if they have symptoms?

I think so?

 

[20Bees]

I work in a supermarket and we have had notification today that anyone currently isolating because they are a close contact should return to work on Monday if they are at least two weeks beyond being fully vaccinated (unless under 18 1/2 or unable to receive the vaccine due to medical reasons).

 

[Mation]

I’m not sure I really understand the question, in practical terms. You want to know not what you should do but what is strictly required? I would say that the answer to that always derives from knowing what is being enforced. And the answer is: nobody is enforcing anything for the fully vaccinated. So in terms of strict requirements, your need to isolate must therefore necessarily be over.

I don't want to know what's being enforced, I want to know if the rules say anything about people who are already isolating being able to cut their isolation short. The question is very literal. I don't know how else to ask it

Personally, I think the fact that symptoms can take up to 10 days to develop will be just as true next week as it is this week. Therefore I think I should finish the full quarantine period.

Currently my employer accepts that I'm off because it's a legal requirement. I know that changes next week, but I want to know whether my employer will then be able to say that I must go in before the quarantine is up, or whether there's something in the rules that says, all Mastermind like, I've started so I'll finish.

I work in a supermarket and we have had notification today that anyone currently isolating because they are a close contact should return to work on Monday if they are at least two weeks beyond being fully vaccinated (unless under 18 1/2 or unable to receive the vaccine due to medical reasons).

Yes, that's the sort of thing I'm wondering about. They haven't said anything to me thus far, but I want to know whether to expect that they might yet.

 

[prunus]

I don't want to know what's being enforced, I want to know if the rules say anything about people who are already isolating being able to cut their isolation short. The question is very literal. I don't know how else to ask it

Personally, I think the fact that symptoms can take up to 10 days to develop will be just as true next week as it is this week. Therefore I think I should finish the full quarantine period.

Currently my employer accepts that I'm off because it's a legal requirement. I know that changes next week, but I want to know whether my employer will then be able to say that I must go in before the quarantine is up, or whether there's something in the rules that says, all Mastermind like, I've started so I'll finish.

Yes, that's the sort of thing I'm wondering about. They haven't said anything to me thus far, but I want to know whether to expect that they might yet.

What appears to be the definitive answer from gov.uk:

“If their self-isolation period began before 16 August and was due to end after 16 August, they will be able to leave self-isolation on 16 August”

from here:

Self-isolation removed for double-jabbed close contacts from 16 August

Published 11th Aug so as up to date as one could hope really.

 

[Mation]

What appears to be the definitive answer from gov.uk:

“If their self-isolation period began before 16 August and was due to end after 16 August, they will be able to leave self-isolation on 16 August”

from here:

Self-isolation removed for double-jabbed close contacts from 16 August

Published 11th Aug so as up to date as one could hope really.

Thank you. I read that page, but managed to miss it.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Looks terrifying to me. And I know plenty of that is down to how I feel about getting ill but fuck me. Last few days I've just had the sense that everyone has just fucked it all off like Covid was a few years ago. Not 32,000 cases yesterday.

 

[elbows]

Well I suppose its been clear for most of this year that this was going to be a surreal summer full of contradictions.

To some extent the current approach has only been viable because it isnt really 'everyone' behaving like this, those who remain cautious are far less visible via photos and anecdotes but they are still a major force. But there are large numbers of people going back to normal things, due to a combination of the passage of time, vaccines, government policy and complicit media.

Even a fair chunk of people who still engage on this forum and take the pandemic seriously have been doing some things which arent hugely compatible with the current stage of the pandemic. I decided long ago that I would not spend my time moaning at them, and that its not my place to judge everyone elses sense of balance.

I do still have some fairly major doubts about how sustainable this approach and this level of mixing will be. But as part of 'balance', mental health coping etc, I can see why giving people something during summer has some merits. I just question whether that will be possible when we move on to autumn and winter. Perhaps, although its asking vaccines to carry way more weight than I find sensible.

 

[elbows]

And it certainly wont shock me if football causes an obvious change to the infection picture in the coming weeks. Although given the change to self-isolation rules arriving at about the same time, as usual I will struggle to fully unpick the potential factors and correctly apportion blame.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Yeah, I get the sense that a combination of people having just got too tired of it all to worry that much added to a sense of "we've more or less all been vaccinated now" has given the impression - rightly it wrongly - that the dark days of Covid are thoroughly behind us.

 

[kabbes]

Yeah, I get the sense that a combination of people having just got too tired of it all to worry that much added to a sense of "we've more or less all been vaccinated now" has given the impression - rightly it wrongly - that the dark days of Covid are thoroughly behind us.

I’m not sure I get the impression from people that it is all over so much as the attitude of, “there’s nothing more we can realistically do, so if not now then when?” People don’t want to live in isolation forever, but they’ll do it to a plan with an exit strategy. The promise of vaccines was the exit strategy that was presented to them. Even the people I know that want to keep lockdown going only want to do so until everybody has had their chance to get vaccinated.

I can’t blame them, really. I am more of an isolationist and could carry on with social distancing indefinitely, viewing it as swings and roundabouts. But most people are not like that and they don’t want to be told “This is just life now”

 

[Steel Icarus]

I’m not sure I get the impression from people that it is all over so much as the attitude of, “there’s nothing more we can realistically do, so if not now then when?” People don’t want to live in isolation forever, but they’ll do it to a plan with an exit strategy. The promise of vaccines was the exit strategy that was presented to them. Even the people I know that want to keep lockdown going only want to do so until everybody has had their chance to get vaccinated.

I can’t blame them, really. I am more of an isolationist and could carry on with social distancing indefinitely, viewing it as swings and roundabouts. But most people are not like that and they don’t want to be told “This is just life now”

Yeah, I'm under no illusion that how I view "the state of the nation" is unlikely to be accurate or widespread, and me not being ready to move into the next phase while others are is making me more nervous than perhaps it should.

 

[StoneRoad]

I'll be watching the case rate in Scotland for the next few weeks, as I think the schools are going back.

To me, the overall case rate is still far too high, Although locally we had only 4 new cases, according to the map on the dashboard.

So, as a fully vaccinated person I'm still being cautious, as I don't think enough "youngsters" have had even their first jab.
[At work, our "KickStart" trainee is booked for their first next week. As they are only part-time I am wondering if we should suggest a mask for the next few weeks - when I went in last week, I wore mine.]

 

[elbows]

I'll be watching the case rate in Scotland for the next few weeks, as I think the schools are going back.

I recommend the 7 day case rate per age group graphs towards the end of this page:

Scotland Coronavirus Tracker

Current and historical data of the Coronavirus outbreak in Scotland. Includes breakdowns by region, maps, charts, and more!

www.travellingtabby.com

Things have already turned again there, with patterns that remind me quite a bit of whats been happening in England recently.

The aforementioned Scottish graphs:

 

[Sunray]

I’m not sure I get the impression from people that it is all over so much as the attitude of, “there’s nothing more we can realistically do, so if not now then when?” People don’t want to live in isolation forever, but they’ll do it to a plan with an exit strategy. The promise of vaccines was the exit strategy that was presented to them. Even the people I know that want to keep lockdown going only want to do so until everybody has had their chance to get vaccinated.

I can’t blame them, really. I am more of an isolationist and could carry on with social distancing indefinitely, viewing it as swings and roundabouts. But most people are not like that and they don’t want to be told “This is just life now”

Vaccines are all we have. I've decided, having caught it and double vaccinated for ages, to just go out there now. I think some exposure to all pathogens is a good idea. We (humans) don't live in isolation its just not really possible long term. General immunity can wane if you sit in your house for good. The longer you do, you might have uncomfortable time when you do finally leave the house. Non-Covid respiratory illnesses on rise in UK, medical experts say

76% of the adult population is fully vaccinated. We are about 13 weeks away from everyone who wants one being fully vaccinated and time to take effect.

I see the issue with the delta variant is its so infectious its keeping itself alive in the vaccinated. I know a quite of quite a few people, fully vaccinated that have got it again I think now most people that have it again are vaccinated. Perhaps Pfizer or Moderna can exercise their technical prowess and mod the vaccine for the delta and P1 variants?

 

[redsquirrel]

Vaccines are all we have.

But that is bollocks - we also have a huge range of public health policies we can (and should) be using.
And at the other end we do have more effective treatments than we did in 2020.

 

[Sunray]

But that is bollocks - we also have a huge range of public health policies we can (and should) be using.
And at the other end we do have more effective treatments than we did in 2020.

Not sure those public health policies work too well with the transmissibility of the delta variant. When your infectious, its been shown you can give out 1000 times the viral load of the original wild virus.

How the Delta variant achieves its ultrafast spread

People can get it outdoors just by passing each other. You can be vaccinated and get it. The only truly effective solution is to lock down. I'm fairly sure most of us don't want this.

While we are better at managing this virus in the infected, there are no magic bullets and what treatments there are, you really don't want to be needing them because it means your very sick indeed.