Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[_Russ_]

B&M this morning (Wales where masks are still a legal requirement in shops)..not one single member of Staff wearing a mask...fucking idiots

 

[teuchter]

On the theme of 'returning to normal' it's pretty obvious there is a massive gulf between different people in terms of whether they reckon that's happened. Have done a fair bit of traveling the past few days, some trains feel 'normal' as far as number of passengers are concerned. A mix of mask and non mask wearing, the ratio of which seems to vary a lot depending on what type of train and where it's going.

The other day, I saw an unmasked guy ask if he could sit down next to a masked woman on a busy service. I don't think anyone would have tried that a couple of months ago - even a refusenik I think would recognise that as having been deemed socially as off limits.

The woman's response was to quickly get up and move off to another carriage looking pretty pissed off. I wonder whether the maskless man got any message through to his brain from this interaction.

 

[_Russ_]

Its hard to say without being there but Ive see a range from: Too fucking ignorant to even get it all the way to: Ha I know I'm intimidating this person but I actually enjoy doing it cos im a cunt

 

[skyscraper101]

COVID latest news live: Thousands heading to UK music festivals as prevalence of virus in England rises to 1 in 70

Blood clot risk higher from COVID itself than jabs; teenagers aged between 12 and 15 experienced mild side-effects after Pfizer jab; Primark changing rooms become pop-up jab clinics at two London stores.

news.sky.com

More than 1,000 Latitude festivalgoers test positive for COVID

More than 1,000 people who attended Latitude Festival last month have tested positive for coronavirus, according to reports.

The festival, which ran from 22 to 25 July, was part of the government's Events Research Programme and was attended by about 40,000 people.

Festivalgoers had to show proof of a negative COVID-19 test or be double vaccinated to access the site at Henham Park in Suffolk.

However, data released by Suffolk County Council reportedly shows 1,051 people tested positive for the virus in the days after the event.

It also shows that 619 people got infected at Latitude, while 432 would have been infectious at the time of the event. Of those, 175 were people living in the county.

Reading and Leeds (this weekend) are going to be hotbeds of virus spreading aren't they.

 

[cupid_stunt]

COVID latest news live: Thousands heading to UK music festivals as prevalence of virus in England rises to 1 in 70

Blood clot risk higher from COVID itself than jabs; teenagers aged between 12 and 15 experienced mild side-effects after Pfizer jab; Primark changing rooms become pop-up jab clinics at two London stores.

news.sky.com

Reading and Leeds (this weekend) are going to be hotbeds of virus spreading aren't they.

Badgers posted this one in the covid chat thread...

Almost 5,000 Covid cases linked to Cornish music and surf festival | Cornwall | The Guardian

Organisers of Boardmasters say event had measures in place ‘above and beyond national guidelines’Coronavirus – latest updates

amp.theguardian.com

 

[Teaboy]

COVID latest news live: Thousands heading to UK music festivals as prevalence of virus in England rises to 1 in 70

Blood clot risk higher from COVID itself than jabs; teenagers aged between 12 and 15 experienced mild side-effects after Pfizer jab; Primark changing rooms become pop-up jab clinics at two London stores.

news.sky.com

Reading and Leeds (this weekend) are going to be hotbeds of virus spreading aren't they.

Yes.

I was at a festival last weekend and stayed well away from any sweaty crowded tents full of young people but it was easy to see that all these festivals will be super spreader events. Still, maybe they can get it out of the away before they reopen the plague pits shortly.

 

[elbows]

I’d say that headline over dramatises the actual findings and expert opinions tbh.

Vaccines would protect a lot more people if they were given to developing countries rather than used as third doses.

Yeah as usual its hard to be sure they've reached a 'pure' conclusion and that some of what was seen was not down to initial vaccine infection protection estimates being overly optimistic due to the earlier data covering a period where there was not as much virus in circulation.

I think I've gone on about this recently as 'proof of the pudding' stuff for vaccines, and described the current Delta wave as puddingfest 2021. In that particular artile the same sort of thing is expressed via bits like:

Dr Simon Clarke, an expert in cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, said infection levels in the community would alter a person's chance of encountering and catching Covid at any given time, making it hard to draw firm conclusions about waning immunity.

 

[thismoment]

On the theme of 'returning to normal' it's pretty obvious there is a massive gulf between different people in terms of whether they reckon that's happened….

I think it’s also a case of what people are individually used to. For example, I am ok with getting the train and tube for my commute to work, it the most practical to get to work. I’ve probably been on 2/3 buses since the pandemic. However, last night I had to get a bus home and didn’t get it because it was very busy (there were lots of people sitting next to each other) and more people were getting on. I waited for another bus and same thing. I ended up getting a cab. And yet I get the tube for work which doesn’t make all that much sense except it’s what I’m used to.

 

[Wilf]

I've been working from home, very careful due to health issues all the way through. But then last night I managed a frog in the pan of water moment, aka a moment of idiocy. I'd been watching FC United at the weekend at their home ground. Fair bit of space in the ground, fairly short beer queue, all very low risk. I then went to watch them away last night at South Shields. Ground pretty full and much less personal space, but the real issue was the bar, which was a tight indoor space with a queue that doubled back on itself - me the only person with a mask. Must have been in the queue 15 minutes and kept thinking this is madness, but somehow stayed there - the logic of 'oh, i'm a bit nearer, a bit nearer...'.

The point of the (fascinating!) personal story? Maybe I'm a daft bastard. Perhaps, but it was a bit like falling off the wagon. New normal? Temptation? The point where policy change and opening up intersects with your own decision making. Long winded way of saying 'this is why case numbers are rising'.

 

[StoneRoad]

Not enjoying the good weather today.

getting concerned about some travelling I need to do, quite soon.
I need new glasses and a few other things.

This waning immunity in the double jabbed plus rising cases - which started in the younger sections of the population - are beginning to make me worry ...

 

[two sheds]

You don't want to get glasses across the web? Or is there an eye test too?

 

[StoneRoad]

You don't want to get glasses across the web? Or is there an eye test too?

No, I need an eye examination & test.
Very short-sighted in my left eye, to the point that most of the "express" places don't have suitable lens blanks in stock.

Our "local" optician's testing room is really tiny ...

 

[quimcunx]

I'm in Northumberland and while people are wearing masks in shops practically zero staff are wearing them in cafes and pubs and even I haven't worn one when inside places ordering drinks or food. I'm pretty much the only person choosing to eat or drink outside.

It's like on holiday = holiday from covid.

 

[two sheds]

No, I need an eye examination & test.
Very short-sighted in my left eye, to the point that most of the "express" places don't have suitable lens blanks in stock.

Our "local" optician's testing room is really tiny ...

My (small business) optician did a home visit which I really appreciated, they seem to be offering them as standard. Masked up in a largeish room with the door open, felt really safe.

 

[two sheds]

I was really short sighted made worse when I got cataracts. Have said elsewhere, but the cataract operation cured my short sight - now have pretty well 20/20 vision, just need magnifying glass/reading glasses for print that is too small for the human eye. First time in 60 years I've not had to wear glasses, love it.

I'm recommending people get cataract operation whether they need it or not

 

[elbows]

Maybe I should get off the 'I dont know what will happen next' fence by at least saying that advisors seem to be expecting a significant surge, which makes sense, would be a bit silly to bet against that.

Scotland continue to break their records for number of positive cases detected per day.

And there is greater acknowledgement that those early pilot mass event studies which claimed such events could be held safely were flawed due to taking place during a period of relatively low community infection levels.

eg see this 15:00 entry from BBC live updates page:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-58326657

It is "realistic" to say there will be a "significant" surge in coronavirus infections as schools return and people attend summer festivals, an expert advising the government on the virus has told the BBC.

Prof Ravindra Gupta, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, says: "Of course there is going to be an associated surge in cases, given that the young people in these events are largely going to be unvaccinated.

"So that's just something that is predictable and will happen, despite best efforts."

He adds that when the government carried out pilot music events earlier this year, the Delta variant was not dominant and community transmission was relatively low.

Those pilot events were concluded to lead to "no substantial outbreaks" - but Prof Gupta says if a study were to be carried out now, "you may find something different".

 

[elbows]

Hospital infection control update:

Major spikes in hospital-acquired covid infections at two trusts

Two acute trusts have seen a spike in the number of covid infections that were probably acquired in hospital.

www.hsj.co.uk

Two acute trusts have seen a spike in the number of covid infections that were probably acquired in hospital.

Official data suggests The Royal Wolverhampton Trust had a weekly average of 25 probable hospital-acquired covid infections in mid-August, which was more than half the highest weekly average it reached in the peak of the covid wave in January.

This is despite the trust’s overall covid occupancy equating to just 15 per cent of that in January. Higher covid occupancy levels tend to lead to higher rates of hospital-acquired covid infections.

The trust had 73 covid-positive patients in mid-August, so around a third of those were likely to have caught the virus in hospital.

There was also a spike in probable hospital-acquired covid cases at Yeovil District Hospital Foundation Trust at the start of August, when its weekly average reached similar levels to those reported in January, despite overall covid occupancy being just 50 per cent of its January levels.

In the first week of August, 46 per cent of the trust’s covid-positive patients appeared to have caught the virus in hospital.

According to NHS England and international definitions, covid infections diagnosed eight days or more after admission are likely to have been acquired in hospital. The numbers of these “nosocomial” infections have been rising again nationally, as overall covid occupancy has risen.

In the latest data, around 5 per cent of all hospital covid cases were probably acquired in hospital, compared to 25 per cent in January.

 

[elbows]

Fucking Nick Triggle alert.

Coronavirus: Waning immunity and rising cases - time to worry?

A month ago infection rates were falling - how concerned should we be about the change in direction?

www.bbc.co.uk

And this illustrates, once again, why we need to get used to Covid circulating.

Experts have been clear we should expect to be infected repeatedly over our lifetimes.

But each reinfection should be milder than the previous one.

And, for most, even those early infections will be milder than they would have been, because the vaccines remain highly effective at preventing serious illness.

And experts believe we have effectively reached an equilibrium whereby small changes - either in immunity across the population or behaviour and the number of contacts people have - can make the difference between infection levels rising or falling.

But there is also an acknowledgement our approach and attitude to Covid needs to change too.

About 4,700 cases have been linked to a festival in Newquay, Cornwall.

But local councillor and emergency doctor Andy Virr says the Boardmasters festival was held in the knowledge this could happen and he is reassured the cases are not translating into serious illness.

There are "no regrets" about allowing the festival, he adds, as it brought people a lot of joy.

More than 100 people a day on average are still dying with the virus.

But during a bad winter, 300 to 400 people a day can die from flu.

I've deliberately posted the worst bits that fit the Triggle alert theme I often had to resort to when reviewing BBC coverage of this pandemic. And even the bad bits do contain subjects I'd bring up myself. Its just that its no surprise that Triggle is in love with the idea of equilibrium and is not a subtle operator when it comes to learning to live with Covid-19.

Prof Mike Tildesley, an infectious disease modeller at the University of Warwick, says September will be the crucial moment, when schools are back and people return to work.

"August is such an odd month," he says, "it makes interpreting what is happening more difficult.

"In September, normal behaviour and contact levels return."

And if the signs from Scotland are right - the holiday season has already ended and cases are rising sharply - there could be quite a jump.

"We are already at quite a high base level in terms of infection," Prof Tildesley says.

"So if they go up across the board from here and that translates to a rise in hospital cases, there could be problems."

But there are no guarantees that will happen - especially if we are truly close to an equilibrium whereby the levels of immunity in the population can keep the virus at bay.

"The truth is we just don't know," Prof Tildesley says.

"And it will probably be the end of September before we can say with any certainty."

Regarding that last bit, I'm not sure whether we will actually have to wait till the end of September, we might find out sooner than that, especially if we can continue to use Scotland as a guide. And I'm probably not on the same page as Triggle etc when it comes to what really counts as keeping the virus at bay. I dont really think the levels we have seen in recent months are what was envisaged as the suitable, sustainable backdrop for the whole learning to live with Covid thing.

And when it comes to 'equilibrium', the present situation is not really what I had in mind when I first spotted that phrase being used some weeks back. But I havent studied it that much yet, I dont know if there is any expert consensus about the details of what that term should mean in this pandemic context. I'd certainly agree that August is a very untypical month as far as contact mixing patterns go, and that makes me even keener to reject the idea that the phrase "experts believe we have effectively reached an equilibrium" is appropriate for anything other than the Triggle school of cheap spin. Because you cant use August to establish whether meaningful equilibrium is really there and sustainable. And if the baseline levels of infection during a state of relative equilibrium are too high, I dont think this concept is actually all that much use to promoters of the learning to live with covid agenda. At least not unless you are prepared to invest in a dedicated covid patient treatment branch of the NHS that can permanently cope with the resulting level of hospital admissions without disrupting other care.

 

[elbows]

At least if it all blows up again I can add another entry to the pandemic phrasebook.

Triggles Equilibrium can join Johnsons Permafolly and Spectors Ripple.

Not that I should have been surprised by Triggles use of the equilibrium concept. After all, I mention equilibrium a while back as a replacement for an idea of herd immunity that no longer looked applicable to this pandemic. So it figures that those who previously used herd immunity to justify specific policy agendas and behaviours are also seeking a suitable replacement. And we've both heard the equilibrium thing coming out of the mouths of one or two experts of late.

Never mind, I will still go on about these concepts no matter how they are used by others, since some of the principals may eventually become highly relevant, and in the meantime they may still be partially relevant. I just dont believe in clinging to things prematurely, and a substantially lower baseline level of infections needs to be demonstrated for quite some continual period of time before I will change my pandemic tune and start to move on.

It wouldnt surprise me if dull shits like Triggle will decide they were right all along once we reach a pandemic end point, no matter how many huge and deadly mistakes they made via wishful thinking and their willing bullshit salesman role all the way up to that point. Dismal stuff, since appropriate timing and the right measures at the right time are what matter during the pandemic. Those who take the pandemic and public health seriously are not part of some weird club that would keep us in a state of emergency for all perpetuity. And claiming we are nearer the end than it is really safe to claim does not get us to the end any quicker, potentially quite the opposite.

 

[StoneRoad]

Just skimmed that Triggle twaddle.

Only got two words "Depressing Defeatism"

Sorry to say that, to me, it now looks as if this f********g gobermint is trying to get "equilibrium" aka "herd immunity" by a mixture of deliberate policy changes to allow a mixture of infection and vaccination.
Why else would the ******s completely lift the mask & social distancing rules.

Sod that for a game of soldiers !
Personally, I'm not in a very highly vulnerable group. But everyone I live with is either 70 or nearly so ... one has asthma, another has a "sticky" & thickened heart valve and I have low blood pressure. We are all double jabbed - with me last, and that was about five months ago ...
Therefore, despite the heckling I'm still wearing a decent mask indoors and avoiding crowds outside. And using santiser or washing hands ...

The daily case figures are still far too high for my peace of mind [especially as the admittedly low(ish) levels of hospitalisations and deaths are continuing to creep up] and I most definitely am not looking forward to the explosion in case rates when the education sector reopens ...

 

[elbows]

Yes thats the agenda. But the equilibrium thing is not directly equivalent to herd immunity, its a weaker version of the concept where the upsides arent as impressive.

I reckon I could take the very same factoids that Triggle used to paint a much less impressive picture.

eg Am I supposed to be impressed that current levels of daily Covid death in summer, with the schools shut, are a third to a quarter of the daily flu deaths we can get in a bad winter?

Am I supposed to think that we are close to equilibrium when we cannot even demonstrate full equilibrium during summer when the schools are closed?

It is reasonable to think that this agenda will ultimately prevail, but its still a question of when this actually becomes viable. The chances are they have pushed for this much too soon, and that a more honest approach would have been to frame the relaxation of measures as something we could temporarily get away with in summer, but that not all of those gains would hold during other seasons.

I suppose what I find especially dangerous about promoting that stuff now is that it provides further opportunities not to do the right things, and to fall back on the seductive idea that equilibrium could be just around the next corner if we just hold a nerve for a bit longer. And that people like me may find it difficult to 'prove' that such a possibility is not plausible. I wont be able to accurately predict when such a state of equilibrium will occur, and will only be able to deny it is at all plausible if the situation gets very bad indeed with no end in sight.

 

[elbows]

Regarding the hospital infections situation which I posted about the other day, it shows up somewhat in this weeks surveillance report too.


From https://assets.publishing.service.g...013593/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w34.pdf

 

[elbows]

By the way, when the subject of the causes of the July decline comes up, I have tended to mention that the drop began so simultaneously with the end of term that it didnt really fit the picture fully given that we normally expect some lag.

But I should really take more account of the disruption that happened even before term ended, and how this impacted how many people were put in harms way during the last part of term.

For example here is a quote from an article about the propaganda campaign that is launching,

Attendance fell of dramatically towards the end of the summer term, as Covid cases were rising in the younger population

Media reassurance campaign to get pupils back to school

The government launches a media campaign to persuade parents it is safe for pupils to return to school.

www.bbc.co.uk

Just like the rest of the 'pingdemic', I would expect this to have impacted on case numbers, because the numbers affected by the self-isolation rules of that period would have acted as a sort of mini lockdown equivalent, especially when the numbers reached staggering levels.

 

[elbows]

I usually force myself to pay attention to SAGE papers that are only made public a very long time after their initial presentation at SAGE meetings.

Here is an example from January that only came out in August. Its about importation of cases and behavioural issues regarding quarantine etc.

SPI-B Policing and Security Sub-Group: Behavioural aspects of international importation, 20 January 2021

Here are some choice highlights, which are quite revealing in terms of how the world works and how 'responsible members of the establishment' think. My selection of quotes is not designed to cover everything that document discusses, I'm mostly highlighting stuff that fits a particular theme that I'm seeking to draw attention to, smell the statecraft!

The long-term viability and legitimacy of sanitary measures in the UK depends on a degree of parity with those of other nations, particularly those regarded as similar to the UK in terms of the balance they strike between public health and individual freedoms. Removing discrepancies between individual nations is also widely regarded as desirable from an economic point of view and for this reason has long been an object of diplomacy.

The absence of international protocols on cross-border travel means that there is likely to be prolonged disruption in the last phase of the pandemic and for some time beyond. Nations will continue to respond harshly and sometimes precipitately on the basis of limited and possibly flawed epidemiological intelligence. States are also likely to use public health concerns/travel restrictions to gain economic/political advantage or as a form of retaliation. Every sanitary system so far devised has been abused in this way.

An international protocol on measures to replace travel bans is therefore vital. The UK is peculiarly vulnerable because of its highly developed system of genomic surveillance, which is likely to identify Covid19 variants before they are identified in other nations. The reputation (and economic well-being) of nation states is likely to depend crucially on the extent to which they are seen to comply with international norms. This was seen clearly in the wake of SARS in 2004. It is important for the UK to have a formative role in shaping these norms.

Over the last 150 years, pandemics and regional disease outbreaks have been a catalyst to international protocols/cooperation. But it normally takes some time to achieve this. The chief difficulty in drafting a protocol is that countries differ in their approach to quarantine and travel restrictions. For geographical, political and historical reasons, remote island nations such as Australia and authoritarian regimes with large land frontiers tend to favour strict arrangements, whereas nations like the UK, which depend heavily on trade and movement, tend to favour more liberal ones.

The acceptability of quarantine in Australia also rests upon different models of policing. Australia has a policing tradition based upon paramilitary/colonial policing strategies. As such, policing and social control in Australia is strongly focussed on strict enforcement and compliance, and there is (at least among white populations) greater tolerance for intrusive policing approaches. From a complex systems perspective, the UKs greater international connectivity compared to Australia and New Zealand is also highly relevant. Full UK border closure has wider and more significant effects than these less connected nations.

Most nations with collective cultures such as Singapore, Vietnam, China, South Korea have had greater success in achieving and enforcing compliance than cultures such as the US and UK, where the focus has been largely upon the impact of compliance on individual liberty.31 This may mean that some of the strategies used in China and Singapore, for example, are unlikely to work in the UK as they will be perceived as unacceptable limitations upon liberty. This could influence messaging in the sense that strategies may need to focus on individual concerns - e.g. small loss of liberty is good for one's self and one's loved ones – in addition to social good.

Air crew: air crew are accustomed to dealing with discomfort and mild infections in the course of their work. At an early stage in the pandemic, many shrugged off symptoms but later realised that they had Covid-19 and became a source of infection.

Without detection and enforcement, some objective measures of mobility have shown small increases over time during lockdowns in the UK and elsewhere, while self-reports of staying at home decreased. The same could be expected if quarantine were not enforced. However, even if the number of gross violations is small, it can be expected that the media will highlight them, which will lead to demands for stronger enforcement. In the UK – and in most other Western cultures – there is a bias towards dispositional attributions of behaviour; in other words, to attribute acts to ‘wrong-doing’ rather than to accept situational drivers or limitations. Generally, this impacts disproportionately upon people perceived as socially marginal.40,41,42 There is a danger that stigmatisation could result from such reporting. Furthermore, frequent reports of this kind could paradoxically create norms of non-compliance. As with adherence to other regulations and positive behaviours, it will be necessary to counterbalance negative reporting with praise for people who do the right thing. Most people will follow the rules most of the time and positive behaviour should be reinforced continually.

Lets just say some of those things remond me why I have an enduring appetite to wade through otherwise dull documents in the first place. All the endless bullshit in public discourse only makes me keener to explore what is going on beneath the widow dressing and false narratives, and quotes like the above remind me of what the games are and where the action is.

 

[Numbers]

I don’t know where you get the strength elbows

As has been said plenty and rightly so, thanks for all your posting on this.

 

[Teaboy]

What I don't understand is why there are still complicated rules around international travel when there is zero attempts to control the virus domestically. With schools going back next week with effectively no mitigation and everything open and operating normally why are they worried about travel?

I mean, I can understand why other countries don't want anybody from Plague Island to be allowed in to their country.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

I don’t know where you get the strength elbows

As has been said plenty and rightly so, thanks for all your posting on this.

100% this.

 

[elbows]

Cheers. There is a lot I have to miss out though and my posts still end up too long and too numerous!

What I don't understand is why there are still complicated rules around international travel when there is zero attempts to control the virus domestically. With schools going back next week with effectively no mitigation and everything open and operating normally why are they worried about travel?

I mean, I can understand why other countries don't want anybody from Plague Island to be allowed in to their country.

Different perceived risk-reward balances, different politics and political pressures. Different economic impacts. And for example Johnson seemed to get more blame for 'letting Delta in' than for 'letting Alpha be born here'. Plus uncertainty about which new variant fears to pay the most attention towards.

Plus although current mitigation measures and rules are shitty, I would not say there are zero attempts to control the virus domestically. We still have a testing and tracing system and self-isolation requirements for those testing positive. And no matter how much we are encouraged to worry less about overall levels of infection, since the link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths is only weakened not broken, the state does actually still care about levels of infection. Not enough to bother trying to suppress infections down to a tiny amount, but enough to still be forced to act if the numbers go beyond a certain point. Time will tell how obvious this becomes this autumn/winter.

 

[elbows]

Another behavioural group document where I have no intention of trying to do the main subject justice. This one is from September 2020 and is from the same policing and security behavioural subgroup.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012400/S0781_SPI-B_PS_Security_and_Policing_Challenges_-_Horizon_Scanning.pdf

This first one I suppose I shall file under 'reasons used to justify feeding the masses a series of bullshit, short-term narratives rather than frame things properly':

If it were to be generally realised that national restrictions would have no lasting effect, and that they might need to be continually reintroduced until (if) an effective vaccination is widely available, then this could be a major cause of anxiety and a focus for civil unrest – not least because of the implications for the economy.

There is a section titled Sabotage:

o The rollout of vaccination will provide an opportunity for mobilisation and disruption by anti-vaccination groups, some of which are backed by hostile state actors.19
o Attacks on symbolic targets such as 5G masts may resume as the nights become longer; these have also been encouraged by hostile state actors,20 although the motivations for the attacks are diverse (e.g. health concerns; OCG activity; and anarchist/eco-extremist groups).

References 19 and 20 mentioned in the above anti-vax bit are:

Russian trolls fueled anti-vaccination debate in U.S. by spreading misinformation on Twitter, study finds

Study by George Washington University found trolls ramped up controversy by inflating different viewpoints

www.cbsnews.com

Anti-vaxxers and Russia behind viral 5G COVID conspiracy theory - Alliance for Science

Like the fruitless search for the coronavirus “patient zero,” we may never know where the conspiracy theory falsely linking 5G communications networks with the COVID-19 pandemic first arose. But a more important question is this: who took a fringe conspiracy theory and promoted it to a global...

allianceforscience.cornell.edu

There is a lot else in there that would have been more quotable if the situation had not since moved on.

 

[elbows]

Other documents only published this August include:

An early April 2020 behavioural group report in regards self-reported adherence to social distancing measures early on in the pandemic:

• While Government campaigns are reaching most people (91%+), Government measures are not completely understood. Approximately 25% of the sample think that Government measures allow outings from the home (for groceries/pharmacy, for exercise, and to go to work if necessary) even if they are symptomatic.1
• Self-reported adherence to self-isolation if symptomatic in the past seven days was poor: 30% reported staying at home for seven days when symptomatic; with 57% staying at home for 14 days when someone in their household was symptomatic.

If they or someone in their household are symptomatic: 27-28% of people think that you can go out to the shops for groceries/pharmacy; 30-32% of people think that you can go out for a walk or some other exercise; 16-25% of people think you can go out to work if necessary; and 18-23% of people think that you can go out to help or provide care for a vulnerable person.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012505/s0713-self-reported-adherence-self-isolation.pdf

A July 2020 attempt to adjust the number of possible deaths from August 2020 to March 2021 that a reasonable worst case scenario of the time came up with. This scenario was based on previous covid death certificate deaths. The adjustment involved removing the people they would have expected to die from other causes during the period, but adding the various 'non-Covid' excess deaths seen in wave 1, given that those deaths were expected to have either been related to Covid or measures to control covid.

The former of those, accounting for people who would have died anyway, is relatively modest:

Overall, the expected change in total deaths is -7.0%. So 93.0% of COVID-19 deaths (both in the RWCS, and additional added in Section 2) are not expected to occur otherwise within the 38-week period.

The adjustment upwards due to the 'non-covid' deaths (plenty of which Im confident were actually covid deaths but not captured as such by the data) was not so modest. +31.1% for England & Wales as a whole.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/958741/S0678_ONS_RWCS_Adjustment__1_.pdf

And some others that I might discuss later once I've read them.